Banking stocks have come under sharp pressure over the past three months, with most lenders underperforming the benchmark Nifty 50 amid a challenging macro backdrop marked by sustained foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, escalating geopolitical tensions, and a surge in energy prices.

The benchmark index declined 16% during the period, but several banking names fared significantly worse. IDFC First Bank emerged as the biggest laggard, plunging 32%, followed by HDFC Bank, which fell 27%. YES Bank dropped 22%, while PSU lenders such as Canara Bank and Bank of Baroda (BoB) declined 20% each. Among private peers, Kotak Mahindra Bank also slipped 20%, highlighting broad-based weakness across the sector.

Mid-tier and smaller lenders were not spared either. Punjab National Bank (PNB) fell 19%, while IndusInd Bank and AU Small Finance Bank declined 16% each. Even relatively resilient names like ICICI Bank and Axis Bank dropped 12% and 8%, respectively. Federal Bank managed to limit losses to 3%, while State Bank of India stood out as the most defensive large-cap, declining just 1%.

The underperformance comes amid persistent FII selling, which has disproportionately impacted financials due to their heavy weightage in benchmark indices. At the same time, the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict has triggered a spike in crude oil prices, raising concerns over inflation and delaying expectations of interest rate cuts by global central banks.

Higher energy prices and sticky inflation expectations have clouded the outlook for interest rate cycles, which in turn has weighed on banking stocks. Elevated bond yields and tightening liquidity conditions have further dampened sentiment towards the sector, even as underlying fundamentals such as asset quality and credit growth remain relatively stable.
Uncovering the underperformance, Abhinav Tiwari, Research Analyst at Bonanza, said the Street remains worried about future profitability of the sector rather than current business growth. In his view, investors are focusing on rising funding costs.
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“Smaller private banks such as IDFC First Bank, Bandhan Bank and RBL Bank have increased lending rates because deposits are becoming expensive and they are relying more on bulk deposits and certificates of deposit for funding. This means the cost of raising money is rising faster than loan yields, which may put pressure on margins in coming quarters,” Tiwari said.

Moreover, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) most recent diktat to lenders to limit their net open positions in INR to $100 million at the end of each business day has had an unsettling near-term impact.

“RBI’s $100 million cap on forex positions may reduce treasury flexibility and lead to temporary mark-to-market losses, affecting short-term treasury income for some banks,” the Bonanza analyst said.

Apart from this, the Iran-Israel war has pushed back hopes of any rate cut by global central banks this year. The US Federal Reserve, in its March monetary policy, indicated a single 25 bps cut later this year, compared with earlier expectations of a couple of revisions.

RBI, which will begin its three-day monetary policy meeting starting April 6, is also expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.25%.

“The market is also reducing expectations of an early rate cut by RBI because inflation risk has increased due to rising global energy prices and war-related uncertainty. If crude oil remains high, inflation and CAD may rise, keeping rates elevated for longer,” Tiwari added.

Q4 expectations and outlook

With nearly a week to go before the earnings season starts, investor expectations will now rest on the results from these banks.

Brokerage Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) expects momentum to remain robust in bank counters, supported by liquidity buffers and consumption-led recovery following GST rationalisation.

For 4QFY26E, MOFSL estimates net interest income (NII) for its coverage universe to improve 7.4% YoY and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter. The overall YoY growth in profit after tax (PAT) is seen at 2.1%, while a sequential decline of 5.3% is expected. PAT for MOFSL’s coverage could grow 7% YoY and 0.7% QoQ.

Net interest margins (NIMs) outcome in 4Q is expected to be divergent, with large private banks like ICICI and HDFC expected to report flat margins, while Axis and Kotak could report a decline. Meanwhile, mid-sized banks are better placed, with AU Small Finance Bank, Bandhan Bank, Equitas Small Finance Bank and IDFC First Bank expected to report NIM expansion.

Systematic credit growth for the sector in the January-March quarter stood at 14% (13% YTD), MOFSL said, pegging system-wide deposit growth at 10.8% year-on-year, though faster credit growth has led to a spike in the CD ratio to 83%.

Seasonally a strong quarter, Q4 this time is expected to be softer due to ongoing uncertainty, Elara Capital said in a note. Banks are likely to report mixed performance with a cautious tone, making guidance for H1FY27 critical, it said.

Key trends include steady loan and deposit growth, margin pressure from rising funding costs, weaker treasury income impacting profitability, and seasonally lower credit costs offering some support.

“Overall, while Q4 may be mixed, FY27 outlook will be closely watched, with potential downward earnings revisions. Among lenders, ICICI Bank, SBI and AU Small Finance Bank are preferred picks,” the brokerage said.

Stocks to buy

Among banks, MOFSL has picked two Nifty stocks, SBI and ICICI Bank.

Elara Capital’s recommendations:

Buy HDFC Bank | Target: Rs 1,147 | Upside: 57%
Buy ICICI Bank | Target: Rs 1,783 | Upside: 48%
Buy Axis Bank | Target: Rs 1,555 | Upside: 34%
Buy Kotak Bank | Target: Rs 511 | Upside: 45%
Buy City Union Bank | Target: Rs 335 | Upside: 40%
Buy DCB Bank | Target: Rs 214 | Upside: 35%
Buy Bandhan Bank | Target: Rs 186 | Upside: 32%
Buy Ujjivan | Target: Rs 72 | Upside: 43%
Buy Equitas | Target: Rs 83 | Upside: 80%

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

Samsung’s next-generation book-style foldable, the Galaxy Z Fold 8, is expected to launch in July 2026 during the company’s traditional summer Galaxy Unpacked event, with pre-orders likely opening the same day and general availability following about two weeks later, according to multiple supply chain reports and analyst projections.

The anticipated July timing continues Samsung’s established pattern for its premium foldables. The Galaxy Z Fold 7 launched on July 9, 2025, and the Fold 6 on July 10, 2024. Industry insiders and leakers, including reliable voices such as Ice Universe, point to a similar window in 2026, most likely the second week of July for the official unveiling, with retail sales commencing around July 22 or 24.

This year’s event is shaping up to be particularly significant, as Samsung is reportedly preparing not only the standard Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Galaxy Z Flip 8 but also a new “Wide” variant of the Fold 8. The wider model, sometimes referred to as the Galaxy Z Fold 8 Wide, is designed with a more expansive aspect ratio to better compete with upcoming foldable devices from rivals, including Apple’s anticipated first foldable iPhone. Carrier database listings and regulatory filings have already confirmed multiple model numbers, indicating all three devices are on track for a coordinated summer launch in the third quarter.

Expected Design and Display Improvements

Early leaks suggest the Galaxy Z Fold 8 will focus heavily on refining the foldable experience rather than overhauling the core form factor. The inner folding display is expected to measure approximately 8 inches, while the cover screen remains around 6.5 inches, both supporting smooth 120Hz refresh rates on Dynamic AMOLED panels.

A major highlight in rumors is significant progress on the persistent crease issue. Samsung is reportedly testing dual-layer ultra-thin glass combined with a laser-drilled metal support plate, aiming for a near-invisible crease when the device is unfolded. The overall chassis is expected to be thinner and lighter than previous generations, with some projections placing the weight as low as 200 grams in certain configurations.

Durability enhancements are another key theme. Stronger hinge mechanisms and improved water and dust resistance ratings are anticipated, addressing long-standing consumer feedback about foldable reliability.

Performance, Battery and Camera Upgrades

Under the hood, the Galaxy Z Fold 8 is widely tipped to feature Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 (or a Galaxy-optimized variant), paired with generous RAM options of 12GB or 16GB and storage tiers ranging from 256GB to 1TB. Advanced vapor chamber cooling is expected to keep temperatures in check during demanding tasks such as gaming or multitasking across the large inner display.

Battery capacity is another area of focus, with leaks pointing to a 5,000mAh cell — a notable increase that could deliver substantially better endurance, especially when using the unfolded screen. Faster charging speeds, potentially up to 45W wired, are also rumored, along with possible improvements in wireless charging.

On the camera front, the Galaxy Z Fold 8 could see a significant leap with a 200-megapixel main sensor, supported by a 50-megapixel ultrawide lens and a 10-megapixel telephoto with 3x optical zoom. These upgrades would position the foldable closer to Samsung’s flagship Galaxy S series in photography capabilities, enhancing its appeal for content creators who value the large unfolded canvas for editing and previewing.

Software support is expected to include One UI 9 based on the latest Android version, with Samsung promising extended years of OS and security updates to match or exceed competitors in the premium segment.

Pricing and Market Strategy

Pricing is projected to remain largely consistent with recent generations, starting around $1,999 in the United States for the base model. However, some analysts speculate a modest increase in certain markets due to enhanced materials and components. The new Wide variant may carry a premium, though exact figures have not yet surfaced.

Samsung’s decision to launch both the standard Fold 8 and the wider model simultaneously appears aimed at broadening appeal and preempting competition from Apple’s rumored foldable iPhone, expected later in 2026 or 2027. By offering different screen proportions, Samsung hopes to capture users who prefer a more tablet-like experience when unfolded or a narrower profile when folded.

Production plans reportedly prioritize the Galaxy Z Fold 8, with estimates of 3.5 million units prepared ahead of launch compared to 3 million for the Flip 8, reflecting stronger expected demand for the book-style design.

Broader Context in Samsung’s Foldable Roadmap

The 2026 foldable lineup underscores Samsung’s continued dominance in the category it helped popularize. Since introducing the original Galaxy Fold in 2019, the company has iterated steadily, improving hinge durability, display quality and software optimization with each generation.

This year’s additions, including the Wide model, signal an aggressive push to expand the foldable market beyond early adopters. Features such as enhanced S Pen support (rumored to return in improved form), better multitasking and AI integrations via Galaxy AI are expected to make the devices more productive and appealing for professional users.

Global availability is anticipated shortly after the Unpacked event, with pre-orders likely including bundled accessories, trade-in deals and carrier financing options to lower the entry barrier for interested buyers.

As the July launch window approaches, more concrete details are expected through official teasers, regulatory certifications and hands-on leaks. In the meantime, speculation continues to build around how the Galaxy Z Fold 8 and its Wide sibling will differentiate themselves in an increasingly competitive foldable landscape.

For consumers considering a foldable purchase in 2026, the Galaxy Z Fold 8 appears poised to deliver meaningful refinements in nearly every area — from the display crease to battery life and photography — while maintaining the premium price point that has defined the series.

Samsung has not yet confirmed any specifics, and all details remain subject to change until the official unveiling. Enthusiasts and analysts alike will be watching closely as the company prepares what could be one of its most ambitious foldable lineups to date.