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Markets will hope for signs of the former from consumer bellwether Walmart‘s results, while European miners’ earnings face plenty of the latter in commodity markets. Leading economic indicators and UK data are trickling in through the week and Indonesia faces a critical central bank decision.

WELCOME TO THE CLUB

Fresh off hitting $1 trillion in market cap, Walmart will post quarterly results that offer a glimpse into consumer spending in the wake of mixed signals from U.S. ‌economic data.

Walmart’s report on Thursday ⁠comes after ⁠recent data showed December U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly flat, potentially setting consumer spending on a slower growth path heading into 2026, though a surprisingly strong employment report for January eased some concerns about economic weakening.

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Walmart precedes a bevy of reports from other retailers in the coming weeks, including Home Depot, Lowe’s and Target. Economic reports in the coming week include the advance reading of fourth-quarter GDP, a monthly consumer sentiment survey, and the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key inflation measure.
HEAVY METAL Europe’s four largest mining companies – Rio Tinto, Glencore, Anglo American and Antofagasta – are reporting earnings in the coming week, at a time when some of the metals they mine have scaled new price peaks.

Copper, gold, silver and other precious metals all recently hit records – but the relentless rally seen during January has been more sporadic this month.

The demand picture for metals is well known. Data centres need copper, as does the grid infrastructure needed ⁠to power the AI ‌build-out. U.S. political uncertainty and worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve have propelled gold – and to some extent silver – higher.

That surge has seen the four companies’ market value jump by more than $65 billion since the start of the year, despite the abandoned merger between Glencore and Rio Tinto. The group’s earnings could ⁠determine if that continues.

FLASH – AAH!

A lot of the uncertainties that plagued companies around the world, from Europe to the engines of “Factory Asia”, this time last year – namely, U.S. tariffs – have not exactly gone away, but they’re a lot more in hand.

And this is showing up in global surveys of business activity, which in January showed a pickup in most major economies.

Services are gathering momentum as price pressures continue to subside, while manufacturing is acting as more of a drag. The surveys don’t just tell investors what has happened. Sub-indexes on new orders, employment and pricing all give a sense of how companies are preparing for the months ahead.

With a lot of questions hanging over longer-term job security and company bottom lines from the rollout of artificial intelligence right now, investors may scour February’s flash purchasing managers’ surveys more closely than usual.

JOBS, PRICES AND DROWNING STREET

UK labour market data and inflation readings will provide fresh fodder for markets, even though investors are still digesting the fallout from ‌the recent instability at the heart of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government.

Labour market numbers due on Tuesday will show if a gradual cooling of wage growth – closely watched by the Bank of England – has continued.

Attention shifts to January inflation data on Wednesday. The reading rose to 3.4% in December, down from a peak of over 11% in 2022 but still the highest in ⁠the Group of Seven economies. While lower energy prices coming into effect in April should help drag inflation closer to the BoE’s 2% target, much of that slowdown is due to one-off factors.

With political turmoil creating a febrile backdrop for sterling and gilts, markets will be sensitive to data shifts, while Fitch is due to review its UK rating on Friday.

STERN WARNINGS

Bank Indonesia’s policy meeting on Thursday will be closely watched by investors after MSCI threatened a downgrade to frontier market status last month, triggering a $80 billion wipeout – the country’s worst rout since the Asian financial crisis in 1998.

Soon after, Moody’s cut the country’s credit rating outlook, while rival benchmark compiler FTSE said it would postpone a scheduled index review.

The central bank could resume its easing cycle after cutting interest rates by a total of 150 basis points between September 2024 and September 2025.

Elsewhere, on Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce the first monetary policy decision since Governor Anna Breman joined from Sweden’s Riksbank in December. Breman is expected to hold rates, but growth has rebounded sufficiently quickly that her next move is expected to be a hike – perhaps as soon as September.

Indonesia’s workforce exceeds 153 million, mainly in Java; wages vary by province, significantly impacting labor costs, with mandatory contributions and allowances adding fixed costs to employment expenses.

Indonesia’s Workforce and Industrial Regions

As of February 2025, Indonesia’s labor force consisted of approximately 153 million people, with 145.77 million employed. The majority of this workforce, about 56–58 percent, is concentrated on the island of Java, which serves as the country’s economic hub. Java hosts the primary manufacturing and service corridors, especially in the Jakarta metropolitan area, West Java, Central Java, and East Java, making it central to Indonesia’s industrial activity and labor markets.

Variations in Minimum Wages Across Provinces

Minimum wages in Indonesia are set at the provincial level and act as mandatory cost floors for employers. In 2026, Jakarta’s minimum wage is IDR 5,729,876 (US$339) monthly, about 130–150% higher than wages in key Java provinces like West Java (IDR 2,317,601), Central Java (IDR 2,327,386), and East Java (IDR 2,446,880). This wage disparity can significantly impact payroll expenses, especially for labor-intensive businesses with large entry-level workforces, potentially adding over IDR 20–22 billion (US$1.3–1.4 million) annually.

Long-term Employment Costs and Statutory Contributions

Beyond base wages, employers must account for additional statutory costs that elevate employment expenses. Mandatory social security contributions include the Old Age Security (JHT) at 3.7% and the Pension program (JP) at 2%, along with an annual religious holiday allowance (THR) equal to one month’s wage. These fixed-multiplier costs must be incorporated into operating budgets from the start, influencing the total cost of employment and workforce planning.

Google parent Alphabet raised $31.51 billion across U.S. dollar, sterling and Swiss franc bond markets in a global bond raise on Monday and Tuesday, as artificial intelligence-driven spending sparks a surge in ‌borrowing at U.S. ⁠tech ⁠giants.

Alphabet’s bond sale stood out in several ways, including its use of a so-called 100-year “century” bond in the sterling market.

These and other hyperscalers’ recent bond sales have garnered strong reception with Alphabet’s $20 billion U.S. bond sale drawing over $100 billion in demand. But the growing hyperscaler debt pile has raised concerns about their lack of investor protections compared to other bonds.

“What stands out is what’s missing,” said Julia Khandoshko, the CEO of Cyprus-based broker Mind Money. “Once a big name gets covenant-light terms through, others will try the same.”

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“Naturally, that creates a second-market ⁠problem, where ‌the next buyer has fewer ‘rules’ to rely on, while prices will swing more on rates, mood, and liquidity,” she added.
Investment-grade borrowers with strong credit profiles typically include fewer covenants in debt ⁠agreements than their junk-rated counterparts. Yet most include basic investor guardrails, especially a standard change-in-control covenant protecting investors in the event of M&A or another change in ownership. Alphabet’s bonds do not carry these protections, noted Anthony Canales, head of global research at New York-based Covenant Review.

The five major AI hyperscalers – Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle – issued $121 billion in U.S. corporate bonds last year, according to a January report by BofA Securities. Alphabet and Amazon did not respond to requests for comment, while Oracle, Meta and Microsoft declined to comment.

Oracle’s $25 billion note offering on February 2, and Meta’s $30 ‌billion bond offering in October, similarly lacked change-in-control and other basic covenants, Canales noted.

“In most IG covenant packages you would expect to see a change-in-control covenant,” Canales said. “But these are huge companies where the investors don’t believe there’s ⁠great risk they’ll need these protections.” Future tech issuers, especially smaller and lower-rated companies, could run into obstacles if they attempt to model their covenants after Alphabet, he added.

New debt issuance in 2026 from the five major hyperscalers could reach more than $300 billion as their spending needs around AI buildout increase, BofA Securities analyst Tom Curcurro wrote in a January 12 report. “This massive AI infrastructure buildout requires so much capex from the hyperscalers that they want to reduce the technical impact on their bonds,” said Jordan Chalfin, senior analyst at the New York-based research firm CreditSights, noting the benefits to issuers from flexible covenant structures.