Connect with us

Business

Private Equity Faces “Tougher Challenges” Amid 2026 Dealmaking Boom

Published

on

Private Equity Faces "Tougher Challenges" Amid 2026 Dealmaking Boom

After three years of subdued activity, the global private equity industry has finally regained its momentum. Driven by a surge in deal-making and increased investor confidence, firms are now actively pursuing opportunities across diverse sectors. This resurgence is fueled by favorable economic conditions, innovative market strategies, and a renewed focus on technology-driven investments.

Key takeaways

  • Dealmaking roared back in 2025 with buyout deals over $500 million surging 44 percent to exceed $1 trillion, marking the highest year on record, but the fog has lifted to reveal a fundamentally more technical and demanding terrain.
  • Private equity returns now lag significantly behind public markets, with top-quartile buyouts averaging just 8 percent IRR in 2025 compared to 18 percent for the S&P 500, forcing operational value creation to shift from marketing narrative to survival imperative.
  • Scale and specialization are becoming non-negotiable as funds under $500 million shrink to 13 percent of fundraising, GP consolidation doubles to $34 billion, and alternative structures like semiliquid vehicles explode to $204 billion as liquidity pressures reshape the industry.

According to McKinsey & Company’s 2026 Global Private Markets Report released in February.While dealmaking returned with force in 2025, the improved visibility has revealed a fundamentally transformed and more demanding landscape for investors and operators alike.

Buyout and growth deals larger than $500 million surged 44 percent to over $1 trillion in value, eclipsing 2021’s total to become the highest year on record for deals of this size. Deal value across all buyout and growth sizes increased 17 percent, while PE-backed exits globally surged more than 40 percent, aided by a nearly 100 percent increase in exit deal volume via IPO.

Private Equity 2026 FAQ

What structural shifts are reshaping the industry?

Advertisement

“Megadeals” returned dramatically in 2025. The year witnessed not only the largest PE deal in history, the announced $55 billion take-private of Electronic Arts by a syndicate of firms, but also marked the third-highest year ever for take-private activity by either total deal count or value.

A More Technical, Demanding Terrain

Yet with improved visibility comes a sobering realization: shifts in deployment, returns, value creation, and traditional fundraising, previously considered episodic, are now structural features of a maturing industry.

“The landscape is now both more technical and more demanding, even for experienced drivers,” the McKinsey team wrote. “Success on the road ahead will depend less on speed than on having the right vehicle, fit for the changed terrain, properly equipped, and driven with discipline.”

For dealmakers, assets have never been more expensive. The median private equity purchase multiple increased from 11.3x EBITDA in 2024 to 11.8x in 2025. The backlog of PE-owned companies remains at historic highs, with more than 16,000 companies globally held for more than four years, equivalent to 52 percent of total buyout-backed inventory, the highest on record and ten percentage points higher than the past five-year average.

Holding periods remain well above historical levels, with the typical portfolio company now held for more than six and a half years. Meanwhile, more than 40 percent of dry powder available for deployment has been sitting idle for the past two years, 15 percentage points higher than the five-year average.

Returns Lag Public Markets

PE returns continue to trail active public markets. In 2025, top-quartile global buyout returns averaged 8 percent on a pooled IRR basis, less than half the returns generated by the S&P 500 at 18 percent and MSCI World at 22 percent. Older buyout vintages are dragging performance, with 2015-17 vintages generating roughly 2 percent IRRs, pulling average buyout returns from 2015 to 2025 down to about 6 percent.

Advertisement

Without the tailwinds of multiple expansion and cheap leverage, which accounted for 59 percent of returns between 2010 and 2022, operational value creation has shifted from marketing narrative to institutional imperative. “GPs are increasingly recognizing the importance of underwriting value creation improvements as core parts of their deal theses,” the report states.

Fundraising Becomes More Selective

Core closed-end fundraising has become more competitive, selective, and time-consuming. While North American fundraising increased 8 percent year-on-year to $432 billion, Asia-Pacific fundraising plummeted 49 percent to $49 billion. European fundraising declined 41 percent to $118 billion in 2025, though largely because major funds had closed their fundraising in 2023 and 2024.

Despite challenging conditions, LP confidence remains robust. In McKinsey’s survey of 300 global LPs conducted in January 2026, about 70 percent reported plans to maintain or increase their private equity allocations in 2026, recognizing that top-quartile buyout funds have historically beaten both the S&P 500 and MSCI World indexes over the last decade with 24 percent IRR versus 15 percent and 13 percent respectively.

Different Equipment for Changed Terrain

The report identifies five critical adaptations for success in this new environment. First, scale matters more than ever. Funds raising less than $500 million now account for just 13 percent of fundraising compared with 17 percent five years ago, while funds larger than $5 billion claim significantly larger share. First-time funds have declined to their lowest level in a decade, while strategic M&A activity among the 100 largest GPs nearly doubled from $18 billion in 2024 to more than $34 billion in 2025.

Advertisement

Second, complexity offers opportunity. The 43 percent increase in take-private value globally, with North American take-privates rising 72 percent, reflects recognition that discounted public assets may offer more alpha than private ones. Specialist funds focusing on specific sectors appear to be outperforming generalist peers.

Third, operational value creation is now essential alpha generation. With higher purchase multiples, increased macroeconomic uncertainty, and greater equity contributions coupled with elevated interest rates, GPs must build capabilities to capture value creation potential quickly and consistently.

Fourth, AI is emerging as a transformative force. While only 6 percent of GPs currently see AI delivering high impact in their operations and investment processes, 70 percent expect high impact within three to five years. The technology is already sharpening underwriting, accelerating operational improvements, and enabling faster decision-making across the investment life cycle.

Fifth, alternative fund structures are going mainstream. US semiliquid private equity vehicles have more than doubled since 2023 to $204 billion in 2025, requiring new distribution channels, fund vehicles, marketing competencies, and heightened liquidity and risk management capabilities.

Advertisement

Liquidity Pressures Reshape Industry

Liquidity constraints continue reshaping private equity. Distributions to paid-in capital is now tied with multiple of invested capital as the second-most-important metric shaping LP allocation decisions. DPI as a share of total PE assets under management was just 6 percent in the 12-month period ended June 2025, compared with the 2015-19 average of 16 percent. Five-year rolling DPI hit its lowest recorded level at about 10 percent in June 2025.

This liquidity crunch drove explosive growth in PE secondaries, with traded value increasing 48 percent in 2025 and fundraising up 5 percent, as LPs seek to realize meaningful returns.

Implications for the Road Ahead

The report’s stark conclusion: private equity is increasingly less about timing the next cycle and more about clarity of position. GPs must determine whether their vehicle is built for terrain where alpha is made, purchase-price discipline is critical, leadership quality is demanded, and operational resilience is nonnegotiable.

“LPs face a sharper sorting question: Which managers are genuinely equipped to navigate these conditions, and which are still driving with maps designed for smoother roads?” the report asks. “How these questions are answered will increasingly determine which vehicles pull ahead and which struggle to stay on the road.”

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Business

BlackRock Advantage International Fund Q4 2025 Commentary

Published

on

BlackRock Advantage International Fund Q4 2025 Commentary

BlackRock Advantage International Fund Q4 2025 Commentary

Continue Reading

Business

Opinion: Tech metals a dollar driver

Published

on

Opinion: Tech metals a dollar driver

OPINION: The AI-linked commodity boom is a tailwind for the Australian dollar.

Continue Reading

Business

Dinesh Kumar Khara says RBI’s new guidelines balance customer protection and growth

Published

on

Dinesh Kumar Khara says RBI’s new guidelines balance customer protection and growth
Fresh regulatory moves by the Reserve Bank of India are set to reshape how banks sell financial products, fund acquisitions and lend to market intermediaries. In an interview with ET Now, Dinesh Kumar Khara Former Chairman, SBI shared his views on the implications.

Mis-selling norms signal stricter oversight

Khara said concerns around mis-selling have been building for years, with regulators stepping in to reinforce trust.

“When it comes to mis-selling, this was something which was brewing for quite some time… banking is a business of trust… unless it is right selling, there could be a challenge. Banks had introduced need assessment, delinked incentives from sales targets and looked at persistency ratios. But now RBI has defined mis-selling clearly and even indicated it could impact the licence… punitive measures are very strict… it is a clear reflection of the regulator’s intent.”

Advertisement

He added that while the financial impact may be limited in size, customer experience and trust are critical.

Refund rules may need careful implementation
On proposals like refunds and compensation, Khara highlighted both safeguards and operational realities.
“Even now there is a free look period of about 30 days… insurance is a push product… need assessment is important. RBI has even said it could impact licensing. Bundling practices will need to change… recordings and documentation can help verify claims. The intent is welcome, but implementation may need tweaking.”M&A financing a welcome structural change
Khara described the new acquisition financing norms as a positive shift that could keep deals within the domestic banking system.

“M&A financing has been introduced for the first time… opportunities were earlier funded by foreign banks. Final instructions are more relaxed… unlisted acquisitions are permitted and leverage can be refinanced… very pragmatic steps and a welcome move.”

Broker funding rules aimed at curbing speculation
On tighter norms for broker financing, he said the focus is on reducing speculative excesses.

“The intent is to curb speculative trading fuelled by liberal funding… reducing exposure and increasing cash collateral will ensure right financing, while market making and working capital will continue to be funded.”

Advertisement

The takeaway
The regulatory direction underscores stronger customer protection alongside deeper financial market development. For banks and financial firms, adapting quickly to tighter conduct standards while leveraging new financing opportunities will be key.

Continue Reading

Business

Coles Defends Pricing Practices in Federal Court, Denies Misleading Shoppers

Published

on

Coles

Coles is locked in a court battle with the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) and denies misleading shoppers with its pricing practices.

ACCC previously accused Coles of breaching the law with its “Down Down” promotion.

Coles Denies Misleading Customers

According to a report by The Guardian, ACCC accused Coles of offering “illusory” discounts on many common household products.

However, Coles denies doing this and claims that the promotional prices it offered are genuine discounts.

Advertisement

“What they would be concerned with when they’re walking down the aisle trying to work out what to buy today for their shopping is whether the claimed discount … was fair dinkum,” John Sheahan KC. Sheahan represents Coles in its federal court battle.

“So long as the was price is a genuine price, not contrived or ephemeral, then the consumer’s interest is appropriately satisfied,” he added.

ACCC’s Argument

According to ABC News, ACCC used three prices Coles charged on a tin of dog food to show that the supermarket chain has been misleading shoppers.

Between April 2022 and February 2023, the supermarket offered a 1.2 kilogram loaf of Nature’s Gift Wet Dog Food for $4, said ACCC legal counsel Garry Rich.

Advertisement

The price then went up by 50 per cent to $6 after. This lasted for seven days. On the eighth day, it went down to $4.50, a promotion that Coles labelled as “Down Down.”

This third price is 13 per cent more than the initial $6 shoppers were previously paying for the same product.

“It did not disclose that a reasonable consumer would not have understood that Coles had increased the price to $6 for just seven days, immediately before the promotion, and that for 296 days before that, the price was $4,” ACCC’s legal counsel argued.

However, Sheahan dismissed the argument by saying, “In the end, all prices are temporary. Nothing lasts forever.”

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

Asia FX drifts lower as dollar firms ahead of Fed, econ. cues

Published

on


Asia FX drifts lower as dollar firms ahead of Fed, econ. cues

Continue Reading

Business

Hyatt Hotels chairman steps down over Jeffrey Epstein ties

Published

on

Hyatt Hotels chairman steps down over Jeffrey Epstein ties

Billionaire Thomas Pritzker said he had exercised “terrible judgement” in keeping contact with Epstein.

Continue Reading

Business

Northern California Intermediate Tax-Exempt Fund Q4 2025 Commentary (NCITX)

Published

on

Northern California Intermediate Tax-Exempt Fund Q4 2025 Commentary (NCITX)

Northern Trust Asset Management is a global investment manager that helps investors navigate changing market environments in efforts to realize their long-term objectives.

Entrusted with $1.2 trillion in assets under management as of March 31, 2024, we understand that investing ultimately serves a greater purpose and believe investors should be compensated for the risks they take — in all market environments and any investment strategy. That’s why we combine robust capital markets research, expert portfolio construction and comprehensive risk management in an effort to craft innovative and efficient solutions that seek to deliver targeted investment outcomes.

As engaged contributors to our communities, we consider it a great privilege to serve our investors and our communities with integrity, respect and transparency.

Northern Trust Asset Management is composed of Northern Trust Investments, Inc., Northern Trust Global Investments Limited, Northern Trust Fund Managers (Ireland) Limited, Northern Trust Global Investments Japan, K.K., NT Global Advisors, Inc., 50 South Capital Advisors, LLC, Northern Trust Asset Management Australia Pty Ltd, and investment personnel of The Northern Trust Company of Hong Kong Limited and The Northern Trust Company. Note: This account is not managed or monitored by Northern Trust Asset Management, and any messages sent via Seeking Alpha will not receive a response. For inquiries or communication, please use Northern Trust Asset Management’s official channels.

Continue Reading

Business

Thailand’s Economy Ends 2025 Stronger Than Expected, Boosting New Government

Published

on

Thailand’s Economy Ends 2025 Stronger Than Expected, Boosting New Government

Thailand’s economy closed 2025 on a surprisingly strong note, with GDP expanding 2.5% year-on-year in Q4, well above forecasts of 1.3% and outpacing the previous quarter’s 1.2%. On a quarterly basis, growth reached 1.9%, nearly triple the expected pace.

Key Takeaways

  • Q4 2025 GDP: Expanded 2.5% year-on-year, stronger than forecasts and above Q3’s 1.2%.
  • Quarterly Growth: Rose 1.9% from Q3, exceeding the highest Bloomberg survey estimate of 1.9%.
  • Full-Year 2025: Economy grew 2.4% overall.
  • 2026 Outlook: The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) upgraded projections, expecting growth between 1.5%–2.5%, driven by exports and tourism recovery.

For the full year, GDP rose 2.4%, driven by a rebound in exports, a surge in tourism arrivals, and targeted government stimulus measures. The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) has now set its 2026 growth outlook at 1.5%–2.5%, citing continued recovery in external demand and tourism as key drivers.

The stronger-than-expected performance comes at a pivotal moment for Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who recently secured a coalition deal. The economic momentum provides his administration with political capital as it pledges to stabilize the economy and ease cost-of-living pressures.

Despite the upbeat figures, Thailand’s growth remains modest compared to regional peers. Malaysia and Singapore grew at more than double Thailand’s pace in 2025, while Vietnam expanded nearly four times faster, underscoring the competitiveness challenges ahead.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

Could this college become Greater Manchester’s next university?

Published

on

Business Live

UK Management College has big plans as it opens new Salford campus

Professor Jason Powell, the provost and chief academic officer of UK Management College, pictured at UKMC's new Salford campus

Professor Jason Powell, the provost and chief academic officer of UK Management College, at UKMC’s new Salford campus(Image: Reach plc)

A college that’s just opened a new campus in Salford and has bases across the country is celebrating its tenth anniversary – and now hopes to become a university in its own right. UK Management College was founded in 2016 by husband and wife Zahidul and Abida Islam to focus on offering education opportunities to members of socially disadvantaged or underrepresented groups, and to older people looking to return to education.

From just a handful of students in 2016, the college has grown to serve 7,000 learners at three sites in Greater Manchester and campuses in Sunderland, Newcastle and Derby. Its offering has gone beyond management courses and it now offers degrees, in partnership with other universities, in subjects including fashion and events management.

Now, its provost Professor Jason Powell says, the college has started planning to become a university in its own right and to be able to offer its own degrees. He said: “Last year, we created what’s called the Transforming Lives Strategic Plan 2025 to 2030. That was written in consultation with students, staff and external stakeholders, not by myself as the provost of the institution.

“And part of that, in terms of the strategic direction of the college, is that we do aspire to be a university in our own right with our own degree-awarding powers. That’s really important and that obviously gives more autonomy for the future.”

Advertisement

Becoming a university is a key long-term goal for UKMC’s management team, which it will work on to 2030 and beyond. Prof Powell said: “That’s important as a marker and shows our ambition and credibility and legitimacy. I’ve worked in higher education for years now with Russell Group universities, post-92 universities, as well as the independent sector. Some of my proudest moments have come from UK Management College.

“One of the fantastic insights that I get from working here is about intergenerational justice and social justice for those groups who traditionally have been denied access to university level education.”

UKMC will continue working with its current university partners, including Canterbury Christ Church University, Arts University Bournemouth, and the University of Wolverhampton.

Prof Powell said: “We very much value the university partnerships that we have and may have in the future.” He added: “These partnerships are not just created overnight, they’re cultivated carefully and it shows us as a quality beacon of excellence in order to attract leading universities to deliver their programmes in the heart of Greater Manchester and across the UK.”

Advertisement

Those degree courses were developed through consulting with local communities as UKMC continued to grow. Prof Powell said: “From 2016 onwards, the college had a number of different types of diploma courses. And in 2023 we decided to actively listen to the communities by which we serve – listening to community-based organisations as well as, say for example, faith based organisations, Jobcentre plus, the NHS – to actually find out what type of programmes were needed.

“What they told us was we needed more HE-orientated programmes to be put in place. The problem that we found was that there were many potential learners who were denied access to education in the university sector. So to that end, we decided to cultivate a number of strategic partnerships with universities in order to provide opportunities for those socially disadvantaged students who may have been out of the education system for a long time, but who wanted that opportunity.”

Prof Powell works closely with founder Zahidul Islam on their vision for the college. He said: “Zahidul is the CEO of UK Management College, and he’s one of the most passionate entrepreneurs that I’ve ever met, and is very student driven. Its fundamental value from the beginning was about active listening to the communities which we serve.

“And that was about looking at the most socially disadvantaged and most underrepresented groups in education who should be given opportunity. We saw it as a human right, a fundamental human right, that no one should be denied access to education irrespective of social identity or social division.

Advertisement
UK Management College's new Salford campus at Carolina Way

UK Management College’s new Salford campus at Carolina Way(Image: Reach plc)

“And we’re a very strong widening participation college. One of the strong pillars and foundations of the college for students has been about enhanced student support.. from their first interaction with the college to plans for when they graduate.”

That mission, Prof Powell says, led the college to open its campuses in the North East and the East Midlands. “Social disadvantage doesn’t just materialise in Greater Manchester, it’s replicated across the UK,” he said. “And we’ve found through very careful demographic analysis in those areas many for example mature students who were denied again access to mainstream education. So to meet a fundamental need in their areas, we cultivated campuses.

“We engaged in the process of active listening. We’re a member of the Chambers of Commerce in these different regions, so we listen to them on the courses that should be cultivated, but for standardisation the student experience is exactly the same as what it would be in Greater Manchester, Derby, Newcastle and Sunderland.”

The Salford campus, 15 minutes or so from MediaCity, opened in January. Prof Powell said: “Salford is an emerging economy and obviously you’ve got MediaCity about a mile away and it’s a hot spot for business, it’s a hot spot of opportunities for learners in order to develop their skills.”

Advertisement

The college also opens itself up to the public and to the private sector through its events and open days, where potential employers and students can find out more about what it has to offer. The next such event is the Careers Fair on Tuesday, February 24, which features exhibitors including NHS England, Manchester City Council, Salford City Council, KPMG, Wellway Rehab Solutions, and Kids Planet Salford.

Olympic medallist Chelsie Giles MBE will join as a guest speaker, while activities designed to help students find work will include mock interviews, CV building workshops and career guidance sessions.

Prof Powell said: “Today’s student is tomorrow’s stakeholder. The opportunities to learn on that day will be immense and the links and the contacts that they’ll cultivate will help them, not just in terms of their careers and their employability, which we have a very strong focus on here, but in terms of their development and growth.”

He added: “We have further other events coming as well, and we just do this consistently, so we want people, students, to come in to see our facilities, speak to our staff, see what courses we do, and come here and get excited about what they can do for the future.”

Advertisement
  • UKMC’s next Careers Fair will be held on Tuesday, February 24, at the college’s Salford campus at 17 Carolina Way from 10am to 4pm. For information, visit https://ukmc.ac.uk/event-details/ukmc-careers-fair-2026
Continue Reading

Business

AppLovin Stock Q4: Market Is Focused On Competition; I’m Focused On ROAS From AppDiscovery

Published

on

AppLovin Stock Q4: Market Is Focused On Competition; I’m Focused On ROAS From AppDiscovery

This article was written by

A long-term investor passionate about Equity Research. My investment objective is to identify market asymmetries with positive reward-to-risk. I invest in high-quality, wide-moat companies that generate strong cash flow and trade at a fair price relative to their value. My research interests cover technology & semiconductors. Please feel free to subscribe to my channel to support its development.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of APP either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2025