Most investors feel safest when they move with the crowd. They buy stocks after prices have surged because everyone else is buying, and panic-sell when markets tumble because everyone else is rushing for the exit. But according to renowned investor and psychologist Fred C. Kelly, this instinct is precisely why the majority of investors fail.

In his classic book, “Why You Win or Lose: The Psychology of Speculation”, Kelly argued that successful investing isn’t about predicting the future better than everyone else—it’s about understanding crowd psychology and resisting the emotional impulses that lead to poor decisions.

Why contrarian investing works

Kelly believed markets are driven as much by human behaviour as by business fundamentals. Investors who simply follow popular opinion often end up buying near market tops and selling close to bottoms.

“If everybody tried to buy when prices are low, then bargains would never exist,” Kelly observed, explaining that opportunities arise only because most people fail to recognise them. According to him, the majority loses because it behaves in the most natural—and emotionally driven—way.

Human psychology matters more than economics

One of Kelly’s central ideas was that investors lose money less because of economic conditions and more because of psychological biases.

He believed investors often sell their best-performing stocks too early while stubbornly holding on to losing investments, hoping they’ll recover. Pride, fear and wishful thinking frequently overpower rational analysis, leading to costly mistakes.

The typical investor’s cycle

Kelly described a familiar pattern of investor behaviour:

• Investors buy cautiously at the beginning of a rally.
• As prices keep rising, confidence turns into overconfidence.
• Greed encourages them to hold on even as valuations become excessive.
• Every decline is dismissed as a buying opportunity.
• Only after widespread pessimism sets in do they finally sell—often near the market bottom.

The four enemies of investment success

Kelly identified four psychological traits that repeatedly derail investors.
Vanity: Investors hate admitting mistakes. Rather than booking losses, they continue holding losing stocks while quickly selling profitable ones to protect their ego.Greed: Greed destroys patience. Investors chase expensive stocks during euphoric markets instead of waiting for attractive valuations.

The will to believe: Hope often pushes investors into speculative bets, convincing them that risky stocks will somehow deliver extraordinary returns despite weak fundamentals.

Blind logic: Kelly argued that what feels logical in markets is often wrong. Buying after strong rallies and selling after prolonged declines may appear sensible because recent trends seem likely to continue, but history shows that such behaviour frequently results in buying high and selling low.

Why patience beats excitement

Kelly advised investors to avoid buying stocks simply because they’ve fallen sharply. Instead, he recommended waiting until a stock demonstrates that selling pressure has truly exhausted itself.

He also warned against assuming that a stock is cheap merely because it trades below its previous highs. A lower price alone doesn’t necessarily make a stock a bargain.

Not everyone is suited for the stock market

Kelly believed successful investing requires emotional flexibility and discipline. Investors who become emotionally attached to their opinions or refuse to adapt to changing market conditions often struggle.

He also cautioned against expecting quick riches without preparation, arguing that the stock market rewards patience, study and temperament far more than luck.

The bottom line

Fred Kelly’s investing philosophy remains remarkably relevant even decades later. In an era dominated by social media trends, momentum investing and fear of missing out, his advice serves as a reminder that the biggest edge in investing often comes not from superior information, but from superior behaviour.

His message was to understand the crowd, learn from its mistakes and avoid following it blindly. Long-term investment success belongs not to those who react emotionally, but to those who remain patient, disciplined and willing to think independently.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

This article was written by

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Mahjong, a centuries-old tile game with deep roots in Chinese culture, is finding a new audience as younger Americans swap nights out and endless scrolling for face-to-face competition. Across the country, clubs, social groups and tournaments are drawing newcomers who see the game as more than just a hobby. It has become a way to build friendships and disconnect from screens.

FOX Business’ Lydia Hu joined FOX Business’ Cheryl Casone on “Mornings with Maria” to explore why the game’s popularity is surging, speaking with players at a mahjong tournament about what is driving the growing interest among Gen Z.

While colorful modern mahjong sets have helped attract attention on social media, many players said the game’s biggest appeal is the community that forms around the table. One player described the atmosphere by saying, “One of the things I love about this community is we are celebratorily competitive… When someone wins a big hand, everyone will kind of cheer.”

Others said the combination of strategy, luck and genuine human interaction keeps them coming back.

GEN Z BREAKS ULTIMATE TABOO BY POSTING SALARIES ONLINE

“People are really looking for in-person connections and just activities that also don’t involve drinking or eating or being on your phone,” another player said.

The game’s welcoming nature is also helping fuel its rapid growth. New players are joining experienced competitors, with one tournament participant saying, “I just won my first hand after learning the rules yesterday, so I’m feeling pretty good.”

GEN Z SHOPPERS HELPING REVIVE AMERICA’S MALLS WITH PUSH FOR IN-PERSON EXPERIENCES

Hu also shared the story behind her father’s vintage mahjong set, which he brought with him when he immigrated from Taiwan decades ago. The family heirloom became a conversation starter at the tournament, highlighting how a traditional game continues to connect generations while creating new friendships.

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IDBI Bank on Saturday reported a standalone net profit of Rs 2,115 crore for the April-June quarter of the ongoing financial year 2027, marking a 5% year-on-year (YoY) increase from Rs 2,007 crore a year ago.

The bank’s net interest income, the difference between interest earned and interest expenses, rose more than 10% YoY to Rs 3,486 crore in Q1 FY27 from Rs 3,166 crore in Q1 FY26.

IDBI Bank’s asset quality slightly worsened since the March quarter, although it improved on a YoY basis. The lender’s net NPA ratio stood at 0.16%, as against 0.15% in Q4 FY26 and 0.21% in Q1 FY26.

Provisions and contingencies stood at a negative Rs 637 crore, as against a negative Rs 179 crore in the year-ago period. Capital adequacy ratio, meanwhile, increased to 26.92% during the quarter under review, while return on assets stood at 1.89%.

Also read | HDFC Bank Q1 Results: Net profit rises 5% YoY to Rs 19,060 crore, NII up 7%

IDBI Bank’s total deposits grew 10% YoY to Rs 3.26 lakh crore, while net advances rose 22% YoY to Rs 2.59 lakh crore. Credit deposit ratio stood at 79.5%, marking an improvement by 810 bps YoY and 644 bps QoQ. Net interest margin (NIM) stood at 3.61%. The lender’s total balance sheet increased 10% YoY to Rs 4.44 lakh crore.
The company’s current account savings account ratio stood at 43.64%, marking a 99 bps fall since June last year. CASA, meanwhile, grew 7% YoY to Rs 1.42 lakh crore in Q1 FY27.

IDBI Bank share price

IDBI Bank shares gained around 2% to close at Rs 87 apiece on Friday. The shares of the company gained around 5% in one week, but have fallen around 4% in one month. Overall, the stock is down more than 16% in 2026 so far.
Also read | Yes Bank Q1 Results: Net profit surges 34% YoY to Rs 1,071 crore; NII advances 18%

Over a longer term, IDBI Bank shares have delivered a negative return of 13% over one year, but positive returns of 50% in three years and 130% in five years. The company has a market capitalisation of nearly Rs 93,546 crore.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Bangkok Bar Fire Tragedy Dominates Headlines

A devastating fire at a Bangkok bar that killed at least 30 people (with some reports citing 33 deaths) has emerged as the week’s most significant story, drawing coverage from multiple international outlets. The tragedy has exposed critical safety loopholes in Thailand’s nightlife venue regulations, prompting the government to launch investigations into possible negligence. According to AP News coverage of the fire’s aftermath, the band that was performing when the fire broke out is now mourning the loss of members among the victims. The incident has raised broader questions about enforcement of building codes and emergency safety standards across Thailand’s entertainment district, with outlets including the BBC, Toronto Star, and ABC News all highlighting systemic regulatory gaps that allowed such a catastrophic event to occur.

Diplomatic Pressures Over Chinese Nationals

Thailand faces mounting international scrutiny regarding its treatment of Chinese dissidents and journalists. Human Rights Watch has explicitly warned Thailand against forcibly returning Chinese dissidents, while China has simultaneously requested that Thailand deport a Chinese journalist, identified as Bai Zhaodong. This request has triggered alarm among press freedom organizations, with Reporters Without Borders (RSF) and Safeguard Defenders jointly urging Thai authorities to halt any forcible return that could result in persecution. Beijing has also formally asked Thailand to extradite the journalist, according to Bangkok Post reporting, creating a diplomatic tension between Thailand’s relationship with China and its human rights obligations under international law.

Visa Policy Reversals and Tourism Strategy

Thailand’s approach to tourism policy has shown notable flexibility in recent days. The government scrapped plans to end visa-free entry for Indian tourists, reversing an earlier proposal amid industry concerns about declining demand. This decision aligns with broader efforts to boost tourism revenue, as Thailand simultaneously works to attract higher-spending visitors rather than simply maximizing tourist volume. However, the visa landscape remains complex, with reports indicating tightened policies affecting other traveler categories, including Swiss seasonal retirees who have expressed dismay over stricter requirements. Foreign arrivals have declined 3.09% year-to-date, suggesting the balance between visa accessibility and quality tourism remains a delicate policy challenge.

Border Tensions with Cambodia

Diplomatic complexities extend to Thailand’s border relationship with Cambodia, particularly regarding Chinese military hardware. China has assured Thailand that tanks being delivered to Cambodia will not be used against Thai forces, addressing concerns raised by Thai officials about regional military balance. This assurance comes amid broader speculation that China could potentially mediate ongoing border disputes between the two Southeast Asian neighbors. Additionally, discussions continue regarding potential oil and gas reserves that could be jointly developed in disputed border areas, representing a possible economic incentive for resolving territorial tensions.

Economic and Investment Developments

Thailand’s economic indicators present a mixed but generally positive picture for 2026. The country attracted THB188 billion in foreign direct investment during the first half of the year, with China leading in terms of number of firms while Japan contributed the highest investment value. This robust FDI performance occurs alongside Thailand’s emergence as one of the world’s top four AI hardware exporters, according to IMF classifications. The nation is also strengthening its digital infrastructure, with airports undergoing biometric modernization through partnerships with Amadeus and Edgewater, and Bangkok preparing to host a major cybersecurity summit. Additionally, welfare card eligibility has been reduced by 28% under new, tougher qualification rules, reflecting fiscal adjustments in social spending.

Tourism Recognition and Sector Growth

Despite overall arrival numbers softening, Thailand continues receiving significant tourism accolades. Koh Samui has been named the world’s best island for 2026, surpassing competitors including the Maldives, Ecuador, and Indonesia. This recognition supports Thailand’s broader strategy to position itself as a premium travel destination. The wellness tourism sector shows particular momentum, with Thailand Health Excellence announcing partnerships with Airbnb and Huawei to enhance medical and wellness travel infrastructure. New cruise tourism initiatives are also decentralizing away from congested ports toward islands like Phuket and Krabi, while electric vehicle tourism campaigns launched with ZEEKR aim to promote sustainable road trips across the kingdom.

Regional Security and Military Cooperation

Thailand’s military partnerships remain active, exemplified by the successful conclusion of CARAT Thailand’s 32nd iteration, which reportedly strengthened maritime partnerships in the region. Meanwhile, Myanmar’s Min Aung Hlaing is scheduled to visit Thailand in early August, according to Thai Prime Minister statements, continuing diplomatic engagement with Thailand’s western neighbor despite ongoing regional concerns about Myanmar’s political situation. Thailand has also been pushing for ASEAN envoy access to Aung San Suu Kyi ahead of an upcoming summit, signaling continued involvement in Myanmar’s political crisis resolution efforts.

Infrastructure and Climate Resilience

Thailand is actively seeking international partnerships to address climate vulnerabilities, particularly flood control. The country is seeking Japan’s backing for flood-control projects as climate risks intensify, reflecting growing concerns about extreme weather impacts on infrastructure and communities. Water resource management also faces challenges, with reports indicating the Pasak reservoir has dropped to just 13% capacity, creating an uneven water security picture across different regions. These climate adaptation efforts are complemented by academic initiatives, including Chulalongkorn University’s efforts to bring together researchers and policymakers focused on climate adaptation strategies for the kingdom’s future resilience planning.

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Once upon a time a serious engineer looking at the map of Europe and Africa thought: what if the sea between them was just not there anymore? That was no science fiction.” It was a genuine engineering proposal, Atlantropa, drafted by a Munich architect called Herman Sörgel, and for nearly three decades it had governments, scientists and the public across Europe genuinely debating whether it could, and should, be built.

The Man Behind the 1928 Atlantropa Supercontinent Plan

Herman Sörgel was born in Regensburg, Bavaria, in 1885 and trained as an architect in Munich. He lived through the devastation of the First World War, watched Europe stagger through economic collapse and mass unemployment in the 1920s, and saw fascism gaining ground in his own country. Like many of his generation, he became convinced that Europe’s problems — poverty, joblessness, and the constant threat of another war — could only be solved by something radical.

Around 1927, after reading a geographer’s description of the Mediterranean as an “evaporation sea,” Sörgel had his big idea. Because the Mediterranean loses far more water to evaporation than it receives from rivers, its level is effectively propped up by a constant inflow from the Atlantic through the Strait of Gibraltar. Block that inflow, Sörgel reasoned, and the sea would start draining itself.
By the spring of 1928, he had turned this insight into a full-blown continental blueprint, which he first called Panropa before renaming it Atlantropa.

What Atlantropa Actually Proposed

The centrepiece of the plan was a massive dam across the Strait of Gibraltar, in some versions more than 20 kilometres long, that would cut the Mediterranean off from the Atlantic Ocean. Sörgel calculated that once sealed off, evaporation alone would lower the sea’s level by roughly a metre a year, eventually dropping it by 100 to 200 metres.

He didn’t stop at one dam. His plan included a second barrier between Sicily and Tunisia, splitting the Mediterranean into two separately controlled basins, and a third across the Dardanelles to hold back the Black Sea. Locks would be needed at the Suez Canal to cope with the enormous drop in water level.
The payoff, in Sörgel’s telling, would be staggering. Newly exposed seabed running into the hundreds of thousands of square kilometres would become farmland and living space. Italy would grow larger, Sicily would fuse with the mainland, and the Greek islands would merge into it too. The Gibraltar dam alone was projected to generate tens of thousands of megawatts of hydroelectric power — enough, by some estimates, to supply roughly half of Europe’s electricity needs at the time. A unified authority overseeing this shared energy grid, Sörgel argued, would bind European nations together so tightly that war between them would become economically unthinkable.His ultimate vision was even bigger than the dams themselves: a new merged landmass of Europe and Africa — “Atlantropa” — bound by shared infrastructure, shared energy, and, in his utopian framing, shared peace.

A “Crazy Idea” Taken Seriously

What makes Atlantropa remarkable isn’t just its scale, it’s that nobody laughed it off. Sörgel spent the rest of his life, until his death in 1952, promoting the project relentlessly through books, models, exhibitions and lectures. He founded an Atlantropa Institute to keep the idea alive. The project drew genuine interest from architects, engineers, and political figures through the late 1920s and early 1930s, and again after the Second World War, when it was even discussed in international forums looking for ways to rebuild a shattered Europe.

It never got built, for reasons that are fairly obvious in hindsight. The engineering demands were far beyond what the technology of the era could deliver. The plan required unprecedented cooperation between rival Mediterranean and African nations who were never consulted about having their coastlines redrawn or their cities left stranded miles from a retreating sea. Nazi Germany showed little interest in a project built on international cooperation rather than territorial conquest. And by the 1950s, the world’s appetite for “limitless energy” had shifted decisively toward nuclear power, making Sörgel’s hydroelectric dream feel outdated even to his supporters.

Sörgel himself never saw the project abandoned. On 25 December 1952, he was cycling to a lecture in Munich when he was struck and killed by a car whose driver was never identified. He was 67. Atlantropa largely faded from public memory soon after.

Why It’s Being Talked About Again

There are a couple of reasons Atlantropa keeps coming up in modern conversation. Increasingly, historians see it as an early, though deeply flawed, blueprint for European unification, a continent scarred by war imagining itself bound by shared infrastructure decades before the concept became the European Union.

As for the environment , we now know that it would have been a disaster . Draining part of the Mediterranean would have caused a rise in sea levels elsewhere on the planet , disruption of ocean currents linked to the Gulf Stream , and destruction of coastal ecosystems . And the very audacity of the idea, one architect attempting to redraw two continents with a single dam, continues to attract people rediscovering it online, in documentaries, and even in the alternate-history novel and TV series The Man in the High Castle, which depicts a version of the plan.

A century on, the Mediterranean is exactly where it has always been. But Atlantropa survives as one of history’s most extraordinary “what ifs” — a reminder of how far one person’s obsession can travel when it promises to solve the biggest problems of its time.

This article was written by

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

This article was written by

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

The Arizona sheriff leading the investigation into the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie has secured a legal victory of his own, after a federal judge dismissed a $1.35 million civil rights lawsuit filed against him by an inmate at the Pima County Jail.

Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos and the Pima County Sheriff’s Department were named as defendants in the lawsuit, filed in March by Christopher Michael Marx, an inmate at the Pima County Adult Detention Center. On July 1, an order from the U.S. District Court for the District of Arizona officially dismissed the case, according to reporting from Newsweek. The dismissal came without prejudice, meaning Marx retains the ability to refile the lawsuit in the future should he satisfy the court’s procedural requirements.

Marx’s lawsuit centered on allegations unrelated to the Guthrie investigation. According to court documents, Marx claimed his life had been endangered after a sheriff’s deputy moved between two units at the Pima County Jail, one of which had been placed under quarantine after an inmate tested positive for COVID-19. Marx alleged the deputy failed to properly disinfect himself before entering his unit, and further claimed that Nanos was not adequately ensuring the department’s deputies were taking sufficient steps to contain the spread of the virus within the facility. “My life was put in harm’s way by the actions of the sheriff” and sheriff’s deputies, Marx wrote in his complaint, adding that he could have contracted COVID-19 and “died” as a result.

The lawsuit alleged that Nanos and the sheriff’s department had violated Article 2 of the Arizona Constitution, commonly known as the Declaration of Rights. Beyond monetary damages, Marx’s complaint sought a formal apology from Nanos and requested that the department implement improved disinfection procedures for deputies working across multiple jail units simultaneously. According to court filings, Marx said he intended to use any awarded funds to purchase two apartment buildings that would provide six months of free housing for people experiencing homelessness.

The case ultimately did not proceed on its underlying merits. U.S. District Judge Raner C. Collins had previously ordered Marx to either pay the required filing and administrative fees associated with the lawsuit or submit a complete application to proceed in forma pauperis, a legal designation that allows individuals to pursue litigation without prepaying court costs after their financial situation is reviewed. That application would have required Marx to submit a certified six-month trust account statement documenting his financial resources. The court’s order specified that if Marx failed to comply within 30 days, the court clerk would be required to enter a judgment dismissing the case without further notice. According to court records, Marx did not satisfy those requirements by the deadline, resulting in the dismissal.

While the lawsuit itself had no connection to the Guthrie investigation, its dismissal arrives as Nanos remains under intense public and media scrutiny in his role overseeing one of the country’s most closely watched missing person cases. Investigators believe Nancy Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of “Today” show co-host Savannah Guthrie, was abducted from her Tucson-area home in the early hours of February 1. The FBI has said the case is being investigated as a kidnapping for ransom, and the search for Guthrie has drawn sustained national and international media attention in the months since her disappearance.

In the days following Guthrie’s disappearance, multiple ransom notes were sent to her family and to media outlets. Recent reporting has indicated that at least one of those notes suggested Guthrie had died, though none of the notes have led to her safe return or resulted in the identification of any suspects in the case. The Pima County Sheriff’s Department addressed the ransom note reports directly in a statement posted to the social media platform X, saying the department had received information regarding potential ransom notes tied to the case and that every tip and lead was being taken seriously and forwarded directly to detectives working in coordination with the FBI. The department directed any further questions regarding alleged ransom notes to the FBI.

Nanos has also had to address other complications surrounding the high-profile investigation in recent days, including a scam that emerged online exploiting public interest in the case. The Pima County Sheriff’s Department issued a separate warning earlier this month cautioning the public about fraudulent social media posts containing QR codes soliciting money in connection with the Guthrie investigation, emphasizing that the department would never request payment related to the case or any other investigation.

The dismissal of Marx’s lawsuit represents a narrow, procedural legal outcome rather than any substantive ruling on the underlying allegations regarding jail conditions and COVID-19 protocols. Because the case was dismissed without prejudice, Marx could still attempt to revive his claims by properly submitting the required filing fees or completing a valid application to proceed without prepayment, though no indication has emerged that he has taken steps to do so since the July 1 dismissal.

For now, the outcome allows Nanos to continue his work overseeing the Guthrie investigation without the added distraction of ongoing litigation tied to unrelated allegations at the county jail. The search for Nancy Guthrie remains active more than five months after her disappearance, with authorities continuing to work alongside the FBI as they pursue leads in what remains one of the more closely watched missing person investigations in the country. No suspect has been publicly named in the case, and a substantial reward, combining contributions from the Guthrie family, the FBI and a local crime-tip hotline, remains in place for information leading to her safe recovery.