The MPC maintained Thailand’s policy rate at 1.0%, raised 2026 GDP forecast to 2.3%, expects inflation to ease by 2027, and will monitor inflation risks, SME debt, and FX volatility closely.

MPC Maintains Policy Rate at 1.0%

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously voted to keep the policy rate steady at 1.0%, considering the Thai economy’s slow and uneven recovery. Retail loan growth remains weak, and SME lending continues to contract. Inflation is expected to ease in 2027 as energy and food supply pressures diminish. The MPC is monitoring cost pass-through, medium-term inflation expectations, and debt serviceability among vulnerable households and SMEs closely.

Revised Economic and Inflation Outlook

The MPC raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.3% year-on-year, driven by stronger tech and AI sector momentum, milder war impacts, and government stimulus measures addressing energy costs. Inflation is projected to peak at 4.5% in late 2026 before easing to an average of 1.4% in 2027, remaining below regional peers due to weaker wage pressure and slower growth.

Policy Implications and Future Outlook

Despite global rate hikes, Thailand’s unique inflation drivers and solid reserves support maintaining a low policy rate to balance price stability and growth. The MPC stands ready to adjust rates if risks intensify. Fiscal policy continues to play a key role in supporting growth, with targeted financial measures assisting SMEs and retail borrowers. The MPC may consider easing in 2027 if inflation declines and growth stays fragile.

Why the MPC held at 1.00%

The MPC voted unanimously to keep the policy rate at 1.00% per year, saying the level remains appropriate to support economic recovery and manage inflation risks. The hold reflects a balancing act: the committee sees growth picking up but acknowledges the recovery is still fragile and uneven.

On the inflation side, core inflation remains manageable, and the committee has not seen signs of entrenched inflation similar to those experienced in many developed economies. That gives the MPC room to stay accommodative. Meanwhile, household debt remains high at around 86% of GDP, limiting long-term purchasing power and potentially weighing on private consumption once government stimulus measures are gradually withdrawn — another reason not to tighten.

On the currency, the MPC said the baht has weakened in line with the stronger US dollar and interest-rate differentials, and the Bank of Thailand views capital movements as normal, but stands ready to manage volatility if it affects overall economic stability.

Why the GDP forecast was lifted to 2.3%

This is the more significant story. The committee upgraded its 2026 GDP growth projection to 2.3%, compared with 1.5% assessed at the April meeting. Excluding government measures, growth is expected at 1.8%.

Three factors drove the upgrade:

1. AI and tech-cycle uplift. The improved outlook reflects the upswing in the global technology cycle, particularly AI and cloud investment by major US technology companies, which has directly boosted demand for Thai electronic products and technology components. The trend is also reflected in rising applications for Board of Investment promotion in electronics, digital industries and AI infrastructure, making exports a key growth driver.
2. Energy cost relief. An improvement in the Middle East conflict has helped lower energy and key raw-material prices from earlier peaks, and the MPC lowered its assumption for Dubai crude oil prices to around US$90 per barrel, reducing production costs for businesses.
3. Government stimulus. The government’s Emergency Decree borrowing of 400 billion baht to mitigate the energy crisis impact is also factored into the revised projection.

The caveat: recovery remains uneven

Despite the upgrade, the MPC still views the recovery as uneven, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises and households burdened by high debt and rising living costs. There’s also a near-term external balance risk: the MPC projects Thailand’s current account balance for 2026 to worsen to a balanced level of around $0 billion USD, down from a previous estimate of $7 billion USD surplus, attributed to higher crude oil imports and seasonal profit repatriation by multinationals — though a gradual return to surplus is expected in H2 2026 and into 2027.

The bottom line: the BOT is holding rates steady because the macro conditions don’t yet justify either a cut or a hike — inflation is benign, debt burdens are high, and the tech-export tailwind is doing much of the heavy lifting that monetary policy would otherwise need to provide.

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The shares of Astral fell nearly 6% on Monday to the day’s low of Rs 1,389 after the board approved the demerger of its chemicals business into a newly incorporated entity, Astral Chemie, according to an exchange filing.

The filing stated: “After considering the recommendations and reports of the Audit Committee and the Committee of Independent Directors, and after due deliberations, the Board has approved the Composite Scheme of Arrangement amongst Astral Limited (‘Demerged Company’/‘Transferee Company’), Astral Chemie Limited (formerly Astral Coatings Private Limited) (‘Resulting Company’), and Al-Aziz Plastics Private Limited (‘Transferor Company’), along with their respective shareholders and creditors, on the stated terms and conditions.”

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According to a report by Equirius Securities, the demerger is expected to create a near-term overhang on the stock’s performance as investors assess the valuation multiples each standalone business could command post listing. The brokerage has set a target price of Rs 1,980.

It noted that valuing the adhesives and paints business will be challenging, particularly in terms of the discount it may trade at versus listed peers. While the business is expected to see strong growth momentum along with a focused profitability improvement drive, including backward integration through the DSS acquisition, its eventual EV/EBITDA multiple remains difficult to estimate given its scale.

A report by JM Financial said the demerger will consolidate Astral’s entire chemicals portfolio under Astral Chemie, including the paints and coatings business, while Astral Limited will primarily focus on plumbing and building materials. Existing Astral shareholders will receive shares of Astral Chemie in a 1:1 ratio, with mirror shareholding. A separate listing is also proposed for the new entity, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals, which may take at least 12 months.
Post-demerger, the key variables for Astral Chemie will include funding growth plans, improving profitability, and navigating competitive pressures, the report added. Management has guided for Rs 45-50 billion revenue (implying a CAGR of 20–25%) over the next four to five years, with EBITDA margins potentially reaching 14-15% by FY28E.The demerger rationale includes improved management focus across segments, specialisation and targeted growth, efficient capital allocation, value unlocking for shareholders, and more tailored corporate governance with independent board oversight.

The filing further stated that the chemicals business undertaking, along with all related assets and liabilities, will be demerged from Astral Limited and vested into Astral Chemie on a going-concern basis, as outlined in the scheme.

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The amalgamation of Al-Aziz Plastics Private Limited into Astral Limited, followed by the dissolution of the transferor company, is subject to approval from the National Company Law Tribunal (Ahmedabad Bench), SEBI, the National Stock Exchange of India, BSE, and other statutory and regulatory authorities, as well as approval from respective shareholders and creditors under applicable law.

The turnover of the demerged undertaking for the year ended March 31, 2026 stood at Rs 12,663 million, accounting for 21% of the total turnover of the demerged company for the same period.

There will be no change in the shareholding pattern of the demerged company upon the scheme becoming effective. Further, one fully paid-up equity share of the resulting company with a face value of Re 1 will be issued for every one fully paid-up equity share of Re 1 held in the demerged company.

Upon effectiveness of the scheme and receipt of all regulatory approvals, the new shares will be listed on the stock exchanges. The entire share capital of the transferor company will stand cancelled without any further application, act, or deed, and no shares will be issued by the transferee company pursuant to the amalgamation.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions expressed by experts are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Economic Times)

Indian stock market traded mixed on Monday, with Sensex in the red and Nifty in the green, even as oil prices inched higher after tensions between Iran and the US escalated over the weekend.

Sensex fell 45 points at 77,055 while Nifty 50 gained nearly 6 points at 24,061.75 during Monday’s session. Broader markets meanwhile slipped into the red, with Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices falling 0.06% each.

Eternal, Sun Pharma and Tech Mahindra shares rose over 1% each to lead gains on Sensex, while Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndiGo, M&M, BEL and L&T shares declined up to 1.5%. This came even as India VIX, which measures volatility in market, gained 4.5% to 13.64

Sectorally, Nifty IT declined 0.4% to lead losses, while Nifty Pharma gained around 0.5%. Around 1,222 stocks advanced on NSE, while 1,276 declined and 182 remained unchanged.

What lies ahead?

“Even while the ludicrous stand off between US and Iran continues with occasional strikes and threats by each country, Brent crude remains low at below $73, thanks to the unrestricted passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments, who added that this is a big macro positive for India and has the potential to impart resilience to the market.
“Additionally, there are two more factors that can continue to support the market. One, relentless FII selling which has been weighing on markets has abated. During the last nine trading days, FIIs were buyers in the cash market, though by small amounts. Two, the South Korean and Taiwanese markets, which have been attracting massive investments have turned weak and excessively volatile. Last week India outperformed both South Korea and Taiwan,” he added.However, the analyst highlighted that it is too early to conclude that the Indian market will continue to rally. A big concern now is the hugely deficient (43%) monsoon. If the monsoon revives and compensates for the deficit in the coming weeks, the market also will respond positively, he said. “In the coming days FY Q1 result expectations will influence the market. Lots of stock specific moves are likely,” according to Vijayakumar.

(With inputs from agencies)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Persistent Systems shares opened 7% lower on Monday, ‌after ⁠the ⁠IT services firm offered to buy German firm Nagarro for 1 ⁠billion euros ($1.14 ‌billion), according to ⁠Reuters calculations.

The German digital engineering firm’s board said it intends to recommend the ‌81 euro per share offer to ⁠shareholders.

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