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SCB EIC revised its 2026 forecast for Thailand’s GDP growth to 2%

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  • SCB EIC revised Thailand’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2%, citing eased Middle East tensions, lower energy prices, tourism recovery, and stronger electronics exports. However, high production costs from the prior conflict continue to pressure inflation, household purchasing power, and business margins, with further strain expected from the second quarter onward.
  • The recovery follows a K-shaped pattern, benefiting large technology-linked businesses while low- and middle-income households and SMEs remain constrained by slow income growth and high debt. Growth for 2027 is forecast at 1.9%, with the Monetary Policy Committee expected to hold the policy rate at 1% throughout 2026 amid supply-driven inflation and tight credit conditions.

SCB EIC has revised its 2026 forecast for Thailand’s economic growth to 2%, following the easing of the situation in the Middle East, which has led to lower energy prices, alleviating travel costs and supporting the recovery of the tourism sector. Exports and investment in certain industry groups also continue to expand well.

However, the Thai economy is likely to slow down in the coming period due to the impact of higher energy and raw material costs from the previous conflict, which is now affecting production costs, inflation, and purchasing power. Even with additional government support, particularly the 400 billion baht loan decree, the recovery remains a K-shaped pattern, concentrated in certain sectors, especially the electronics industry which is highly reliant on imports. Meanwhile, low- and middle-income households and SMEs remain vulnerable due to slowing income and high debt levels. For 2027, the Thai economy is expected to grow at a similar rate of 1.9%, reflecting limitations in new economic drivers amidst tight financial pressures and high external risks.

The Thai economy received a short-term boost from the easing of the conflict in the Middle East, but the cost impact continues to put pressure on the economy.

The decline in oil prices, though still higher than pre-war levels, has helped mitigate the impact on businesses, particularly the tourism sector, which is expected to recover better due to lower travel costs. Meanwhile, exports, especially in the electronics industry, continue to grow, and foreign investment is expanding well. However, the effects of previously high energy and production costs are still gradually being passed on to the real economy and will put more pressure on economic activity from the second quarter onwards.

SCB EIC estimates that these impacts will be transmitted to the Thai economy through three main channels: 

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(1) energy and production costs will put pressure on inflation, the cost of living, household purchasing power, and affect business profit margins, especially those that are energy-intensive and logistics-intensive ;

(2) a slowdown in the global economy will affect exports due to weaker global purchasing power, especially in markets directly affected by the war. Meanwhile, the high import energy prices in the preceding period and the accelerating trend in capital goods imports will put pressure on the trade balance and current account balance, which are likely to worsen significantly this year; and 

(3) tighter financial conditions due to volatility in financial markets and capital flows, resulting in a higher risk premium and yield curve.

A clear K-shaped recovery is emerging, concentrated in large businesses and the technology sector, while households and SMEs remain vulnerable.

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SCB EIC projects that the Thai economy is showing a clearer K-shaped recovery trend, driven primarily by large businesses and technology-related industries such as AI, data centers, electronics, and digital infrastructure. These sectors are supported by investment and exports of certain goods. However, because most of these businesses have a high proportion of imports, their positive impact on domestic supply chains, employment, and broader income is limited.

Conversely, low- and middle-income households and SMEs remain vulnerable to slow income recovery, rising production costs and living expenses, and high debt burdens. This limits consumption recovery and puts pressure on businesses that rely on domestic purchasing power, particularly small businesses and certain service sectors, impacting sales, liquidity, and debt repayment ability. The disparity in recovery between business and household sectors will be a significant constraint on the Thai economy in the coming period.

The Thai economy is projected to grow at a low rate in 2026-2027, despite government support through the 400 billion baht emergency decree.

SCB EIC forecasts Thailand’s economy to grow by 2% in 2026, higher than its previous forecast but still lower than the previous average. This forecast is driven by better-than-expected first-quarter economic figures, the easing of the situation in the Middle East, and government support, particularly the 400 billion baht loan decree, which will help support the economy through measures to reduce the cost of living, stimulate spending, and some investment related to the energy transition. However, the support from the “Thai Helps Thai Plus” measures will mainly boost economic activity in the short term, before this momentum slows towards the end of the year. The clarity of the energy transition measures still needs to be monitored to assess their impact on the economy.

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For 2027, SCB EIC forecasts that the Thai economy will expand at a rate similar to 2026, around 1.9% , reflecting constraints from new drivers for medium-term growth. Existing drivers remain limited by factors such as slow consumer recovery due to the deleveraging process of household debt, concentrated investment and exports with high dependence on imports, reduced government policy space, and the vulnerability of SMEs facing intense competition and tight financial conditions.

Monetary policy faces limitations; the Monetary Policy Committee is expected to maintain the policy interest rate at 1% throughout this year.

SCB EIC estimates that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to maintain its policy interest rate at 1% throughout 2026. Inflationary pressures are primarily driven by supply-side factors, and long-term inflation expectations among the public and businesses remain unaffected. SCB EIC revised its average inflation forecast for this year down from its previous view to 2.6%, remaining within the target range. This is due to the easing of the war situation leading to lower energy prices. Simultaneously, Thailand maintains strong external stability and high levels of international reserves, thus eliminating the need to urgently raise interest rates to control inflation and currency depreciation, as has been observed in some regional countries.

Although policy interest rates remain low, overall financial conditions remain tight, particularly for retail borrowers and SMEs, due to slowing income growth and cautious lending practices by financial institutions driven by declining loan quality and repayment ability risks. Therefore, measures to assist borrowers and increase SME access to credit, coupled with measures to enhance income-generating capabilities, will play a crucial role in improving liquidity and sustaining the economy in the coming period.

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Businesses face pressure, but opportunities remain in sectors related to AI, FDI, and megatrends.

Thai businesses face significant pressure from costs that remain higher than pre-war levels, supply chain volatility, and uneven demand recovery. These factors are impacting sales, profit margins, and liquidity for many businesses, particularly those limited in passing on costs to consumers in a fragile demand environment.

SCB EIC believes that future business trends will show clearer divergence, particularly among large corporations and SMEs, as well as businesses that can adapt by reducing costs, increasing productivity, and connecting with supply chains that thrive in line with major global trends. These businesses will be able to maintain their growth, but close monitoring of cost risks and demand volatility is necessary.

Growth opportunities remain in AI-related businesses, foreign investment, and megatrends such as electronics, data centers, clean energy, food, and healthcare. These sectors are supported by new investments, technological advancements, manufacturing relocation, and long-term shifts in consumer behavior. Therefore, Thai businesses should accelerate efficiency improvements, cost restructuring, and integration into new supply chains to enhance competitiveness amidst high global economic uncertainty.

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The global economy is slowing down this year amid rising global inflation and interest rates.

SCB EIC forecasts that the global economy will expand by 2.5% and 2.6% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, driven primarily by investment.
In the field of AI, electronics manufacturing countries continue to benefit. The situation in the Middle East has improved, but high uncertainty remains. Looking ahead, the US tariffs under Section 301 remain a major risk to global trade in the second half of the year. Regarding monetary policy, major central banks around the world continue to prioritize the risk of inflation exceeding their targets. SCB EIC believes the Fed will not ease monetary policy this year, maintaining interest rates at 3.5-3.75% throughout the year. Global financial conditions are expected to remain tight due to high government bond yields.

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Air France-KLM SA (AFLYY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Air France-KLM Half year 2026 Results Presentation. Today’s conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Benjamin Smith, CEO and Steven Zaat, CFO. Please go ahead, sir.

Benjamin Smith
CEO & Director

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Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Air France-KLM’s Second Quarter 2026 Results Presentation. As usual, I’ll begin with the strategic and operational highlights of the quarter before handing over to Steven Zaat, our CFO, who will walk you through our financial performance in detail.

I will then return to take your questions together with Steven, Anne Rigail, Air France’s CEO; and Marjan Rintel, KLM CEO. As the entire industry, Air France-KLM continued to operate in a highly volatile environment this quarter that we delivered a strong commercial performance. Good revenues increased — Group revenues increased by nearly 10% to EUR 9.3 billion, supported by growth across all our businesses. Passenger demand remained robust with more than 28 million customers traveling on our network during the quarter.

As

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DFI Retail Group Holdings Limited 2026 Q2 – Results – Earnings Call Presentation (OTCMKTS:DFIHY) 2026-08-01

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Seeking Alpha’s transcripts team is responsible for the development of all of our transcript-related projects. We currently publish thousands of quarterly earnings calls per quarter on our site and are continuing to grow and expand our coverage. The purpose of this profile is to allow us to share with our readers new transcript-related developments. Thanks, SA Transcripts Team

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Right technology

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Apropos of ‘The climate conundrum’ (ET, Oct 9), Mukul Sanwal rightly suggests that developing countries should lead in setting the agenda for global technological cooperation.

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Managing data – The Economic Times

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This refers to your edit ���A welcome quest��� (ET, Oct 8). It is imperative to have a strong database. But just having a database of employment is not enough; the data has to be consistent. It has been observed that data vary from ministry to ministry, department to department. India���s information system is not very precise and efficient. One centralised database system can address this issue which will provide access to the diverse group of people and policymakers with consistency.

Debasish Maitra

IRMA, Anand, October 8

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US Justice Department subpoenas New York Times freelancer over North Korea story, paper says

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Six Factors Behind the Extreme Volatility

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Earnings News: Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ: MU)

South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI index has whipsawed through one of the most volatile stretches in its history over the past several weeks, swinging between historic single-day losses and record-setting rebounds as investors struggle to settle on a consistent view of the country’s chip-heavy stock market. Here is a breakdown of the key factors driving that turbulence.

1. Extreme concentration in just two chip stocks

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix together account for more than half of the KOSPI’s total market weighting, a level of concentration that has effectively turned the entire benchmark index into a direct proxy for global sentiment toward artificial intelligence hardware spending. When either company’s shares move sharply, whether up or down, the effect ripples through the headline index with far greater force than a comparably diversified market would experience. That dynamic has meant that daily earnings reactions, competitive news or supply announcements involving either company can single-handedly swing the KOSPI by several percentage points in a single session.

2. Whiplash reactions to memory chip earnings

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Both companies’ recent earnings reports have triggered dramatically different market reactions depending on how results compared with elevated investor expectations, rather than the underlying strength of the results themselves. SK Hynix reported a sixfold increase in operating profit and record revenue, yet shares initially fell sharply because the figures still came in below the loftier expectations investors had built around AI-related chip demand. Samsung’s semiconductor division separately reported operating income more than 250 times higher than the prior year, a result that, combined with other catalysts, helped fuel one of the sharpest single-day rallies in KOSPI history.

3. Intensifying competition from Chinese chipmakers

Growing concerns about Chinese memory chip manufacturers narrowing the technological gap with South Korean producers have added a structural layer of anxiety to the recent volatility. The successful stock market debut of Chinese memory chip manufacturer CXMT, along with reports that Chinese firms have made progress developing advanced deep ultraviolet lithography equipment, has repeatedly weighed on sentiment toward Samsung and SK Hynix, since both companies face the prospect of lower-cost Chinese rivals eventually competing for market share in the global memory chip industry.

4. Broader doubts about AI infrastructure spending sustainability

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The KOSPI’s swings have closely tracked a broader global reassessment of whether massive capital spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure can continue at its current pace. Selloffs in Korean chip stocks have repeatedly coincided with steep declines in U.S. semiconductor names, driven in part by investor concerns about unusually large, circular financing arrangements between major AI infrastructure providers and their customers. Conversely, the KOSPI’s most dramatic rebound to date came directly on the heels of blockbuster earnings from Microsoft, Amazon and Meta Platforms, which eased those same concerns and sent chip stocks surging across Asian markets overnight.

5. Leveraged trading and mechanical market structure

Elevated participation by individual investors in leveraged exchange-traded funds tracking the semiconductor sector has repeatedly amplified volatility in both directions throughout the recent turbulence. When the KOSPI or the smaller KOSDAQ index falls or rises 8% or more within a single session, automatic circuit breakers and “sidecar” mechanisms designed to halt trading or suspend program orders have been triggered on multiple occasions in recent weeks, at times on both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ on consecutive trading days for the first time in the exchange’s history. New cash-deposit requirements for leveraged ETF investors, which took effect July 31, were specifically introduced by regulators in an effort to reduce this kind of mechanically amplified volatility going forward.

6. Shifting foreign investor flows

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Foreign investor activity has swung sharply during the recent turmoil, adding another layer of instability to the index. During the sharpest phase of the selloff, foreign investors sold tens of trillions of won worth of Korean stocks over consecutive weeks. That pattern reversed abruptly during the KOSPI’s record rebound session, when foreign investors posted net purchases exceeding 7 trillion won in a single day, marking a second consecutive session of net foreign buying after four straight sessions of net selling beforehand. Institutional investors have shown a similarly inconsistent pattern, at times reversing from net sellers to net buyers within the same trading session.

The scale of the recent swings has been extraordinary by historical standards. The KOSPI plunged more than 17% over three trading sessions in late July, at one point falling roughly 40% from its June peak and wiping out nearly $2 trillion in market value, before rebounding with a single-day gain of 17.91%, the largest in the index’s history, a move that still left the KOSPI down 22.19% for the month of July overall, its worst monthly performance since 1997.

Market analysts have urged caution about reading too much into any single day’s move given the scale of the recent volatility. One analyst, speaking to CNBC following the record rebound session, cautioned that asset prices had become “completely disconnected” from underlying fundamentals during the recent turmoil, adding, “I would not expect gains of this magnitude to continue.”

South Korean authorities have moved to address the broader instability directly, announcing plans to inject at least 20 trillion won into the Korea Investment Corporation for strategic investments in artificial intelligence, data centers and broader infrastructure, marking the first time the sovereign wealth fund’s mandate has been expanded to include domestic assets. With the structural drivers behind the recent volatility, chip stock concentration, AI spending uncertainty, Chinese competition and leveraged trading dynamics, still largely unresolved, analysts expect the KOSPI to remain unusually sensitive to incoming earnings, geopolitical developments and shifts in global technology sector sentiment in the weeks ahead.

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Kuwait International Airport Is Open Today, but Terminal 1 Remains Closed Amid Fresh Iranian Strikes

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Kuwait International Airport

Kuwait International Airport is open and operating on Saturday, with two of its five terminals handling scheduled commercial flights even as the country continues absorbing the fallout from a fresh Iranian drone strike on a nearby military air base a day earlier.

Kuwait Airways is flying out of Terminal 4, while Jazeera Airways operates from Terminal 5, with both national carriers maintaining largely normal schedules, according to travel monitoring service Wego. Terminal 1, the airport’s primary international facility, remains closed pending repairs and has no confirmed reopening date, a status that has persisted since the terminal suffered significant structural damage, including a partial roof collapse, during a strike in early June. Terminal 2 remains under construction, with completion targeted for late 2026, while Terminal 3 has been permanently closed.

Friday’s Iranian strike targeted the Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base, a separate military installation located roughly 40 miles south of Kuwait City that hosts both Kuwaiti and U.S. air force operations, rather than Kuwait International Airport itself. Iran’s military said in a statement that its forces had used loitering drones to target aircraft shelters, satellite communications systems and equipment storage facilities at the base, describing the strike as the 27th phase of an ongoing military operation carried out in retaliation for a U.S. attack on a residential home on Iran’s Qeshm Island. The Iranian army characterized Ahmad al-Jaber as a major hub for U.S. air and surveillance operations and a key logistical support center for American forces in the region, according to Al Jazeera’s reporting on the strike.

Kuwait’s Public Authority for Civil Aviation had not announced any new closure of the commercial airport specifically in connection with Friday’s strike on the separate military base, according to the most recent available travel status reporting. Even so, the broader pattern of the conflict has repeatedly demonstrated how quickly conditions at the civilian airport can shift in response to regional developments. Kuwait closed its airspace and suspended all takeoffs and landings on July 18 as a precautionary measure amid missile and drone threats and active air-defense intercepts, with operations resuming the following day, according to Wego.

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The damage that continues to keep Terminal 1 offline traces back to a sustained campaign of Iranian-linked drone and missile attacks that began in late February and has periodically struck Kuwaiti territory throughout the year as part of the broader U.S.-Iran conflict. Kuwait’s Defense Ministry has previously said its forces detected roughly 30 ballistic missiles and drones launched by Iran in a single day during that earlier period, with several intercepted over residential areas. Kuwait’s foreign ministry summoned Iran’s charge d’affaires at the time to lodge a formal protest and ordered two Iranian embassy staff to leave the country within 24 hours. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard denied responsibility for that particular attack, with a spokesman claiming the damage was instead caused by a failed U.S. interceptor missile, an account U.S. Central Command rejected, calling it a deliberate Iranian drone strike on the airport.

Terminal 1 had briefly reopened on June 1, allowing some non-Kuwaiti carriers to resume service through the facility after an earlier closure, but that reopening proved short-lived. The terminal suffered more severe structural damage, including the partial roof collapse, during a subsequent strike on June 3, rendering the facility unsafe for passenger operations and prompting officials to close it again, a closure that has remained in effect since. Kuwait Airways resumed flights from Terminal 4 within hours of that June 3 strike, reflecting the country’s determination to maintain at least limited air traffic even amid continued security threats.

Sheikh Hamoud Mubarak Al Sabah, chairman of Kuwait’s General Civil Aviation Authority, has said the airport’s phased reopening process has been coordinated closely with domestic and international authorities to ensure operations resume in line with the highest safety and security standards, rather than restoring full capacity all at once.

Beyond the immediate recovery effort tied to Terminal 1, Kuwait continues advancing a longer-term expansion of its aviation infrastructure. A new Terminal 2, designed by the architecture firm Foster + Partners and built around a triangular structure, remains under construction and is targeted for completion in the final quarter of 2026. Once finished, the facility is expected to add dozens of additional gates, thousands of new parking spaces and an on-site hotel, expanding the airport’s overall passenger handling capacity to more than 25 million travelers annually. That expansion project has faced its own disruptions over the years, including delays tied to the COVID-19 pandemic and, more recently, minor damage to the construction site from an earlier Iranian drone strike that did not affect the project’s planned completion timeline.

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Travel advisories tied to the broader U.S.-Iran conflict have continued shifting in response to developments on the ground, and travel monitoring services have consistently urged passengers to confirm their specific flight status directly with their airline before heading to the airport, given how frequently conditions have changed throughout 2026. Passengers flying with Kuwait Airways should expect to depart from Terminal 4, while those flying with Jazeera Airways will use Terminal 5. Anyone whose itinerary was originally booked through Terminal 1 should check with their airline regarding rebooking, alternate terminal arrangements or refund options, since that facility remains offline with no confirmed date for restoring passenger operations.

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Banco De Chile earnings beat, revenue topped estimates

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Hargreaves Services Plc (HGRVF) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript