Inflation expectations among UK businesses have climbed to their highest level in more than two years, as the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict reshapes outlooks for prices, interest rates and growth.

New data from the Bank of England shows firms now expect inflation to reach 3.5 per cent over the next 12 months, up from 3 per cent previously and marking the highest year-ahead forecast since late 2023.

The shift reflects a sharp change in sentiment following the surge in energy prices triggered by the Iran conflict, with oil and gas costs rising significantly amid disruption to global supply routes.

Alongside higher inflation expectations, businesses are now anticipating far fewer interest rate cuts than previously forecast.

Before the conflict, financial markets had expected multiple reductions in borrowing costs over the next year. However, firms now believe there could be just one rate cut in the next 12 months, and only two by 2029, as persistent inflation limits the scope for monetary easing.

Brent crude has remained above $100 a barrel, reinforcing concerns that energy-driven inflation could prove more durable than previously thought.

The rise in inflation expectations is already feeding into business behaviour. Companies now expect to increase their prices by an average of 3.7 per cent over the coming year, up from 3.4 per cent in February.

Economists warn that the impact will extend beyond energy bills, with higher costs likely to filter through into food, transport and other essential goods.

Industry groups have already flagged the potential for grocery prices to rise by as much as 9 per cent by the end of the year, while household energy bills are expected to increase sharply when the next Ofgem price cap takes effect.

The data also suggests a shift in labour market expectations. Businesses now anticipate a slight contraction in employment over the coming year, reversing earlier projections for growth.

At the same time, expected wage growth has edged down slightly to 3.4 per cent, indicating that while inflation pressures are rising, firms may be less willing or able to increase pay.

This combination of higher prices and softer wage growth raises the risk of a squeeze on real incomes, with implications for consumer spending and overall economic activity.

The latest figures come against a backdrop of already fragile economic growth. The UK economy expanded by just 0.1 per cent in the final quarter of last year, and recent forecasts from the OECD suggest the country could face the weakest growth and highest inflation among G7 economies as a result of the conflict.

Rising borrowing costs are also adding pressure, with government bond yields remaining elevated compared with pre-conflict levels, reflecting investor concerns about inflation and fiscal constraints.

In addition to energy costs, companies are contending with a range of domestic pressures, including increases in the minimum wage and higher business rates.

These factors are compounding the impact of global shocks, creating a challenging environment for firms already operating with tight margins.

Elliott Jordan-Doak of Pantheon Macroeconomics said the surge in energy prices is already influencing business decisions.

“Higher costs are weighing on hiring plans and leading to increased price-setting intentions,” he said, although he noted that medium-term expectations remain relatively stable for now.

The rise in inflation expectations signals a turning point in the UK’s economic outlook, with the prospect of sustained price pressures reshaping both business strategy and monetary policy.

For the Bank of England, the challenge will be balancing the need to control inflation against the risk of further weakening growth.

For businesses and households, the implications are more immediate: higher costs, tighter financial conditions and a more uncertain economic environment in the months ahead.

Amy Ingham

Amy is a newly qualified journalist specialising in business journalism at Business Matters with responsibility for news content for what is now the UK’s largest print and online source of current business news.

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Gold prices fell sharply Friday, with spot gold trading at $4,654.86 per ounce, down $130.53 or 2.73%, as a firmer U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields weighed on the non-yielding precious metal amid shifting market sentiment.

The decline came after gold touched elevated levels earlier in the week, reflecting ongoing volatility in the yellow metal following a dramatic rally in 2025 and early 2026 that pushed prices above $5,000 and even toward $5,600 at peaks. Friday’s move extended recent pressure, with April gold futures also trading lower in mid-morning sessions on the COMEX.

Analysts attributed the drop primarily to a strengthening dollar and higher bond yields, which increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. The U.S. Dollar Index gained ground as traders adjusted expectations for Federal Reserve policy, while 10-year Treasury yields climbed on persistent inflation concerns tied to geopolitical tensions and energy prices.

The pullback occurs against a backdrop of significant gains for gold over the longer term. The metal surged in 2025 amid central bank buying, ETF inflows and uncertainty from trade policies and global risks. In early 2026, prices hit record highs before experiencing sharp corrections, including a steep drop in March that some described as the worst monthly performance in years.

Despite Friday’s losses, many Wall Street firms remain bullish on gold’s outlook. J.P. Morgan forecasts prices could reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by sustained central bank demand and investor diversification away from traditional assets. Goldman Sachs sees potential for $5,400, while other banks like UBS and Deutsche Bank project targets around $6,000 or higher in various scenarios.

Central banks continued to accumulate gold as a reserve asset, a trend that has supported prices even during periods of consolidation. Demand from emerging markets and efforts to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in international reserves have played key roles. ETF holdings also showed resilience, with inflows reflecting gold’s appeal as portfolio insurance.

Geopolitical factors added layers of complexity. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, including developments involving Iran, initially boosted gold as a safe haven but later contributed to volatility as markets priced in potential inflation from higher oil prices alongside stronger dollar dynamics.

“Gold’s recent correction reflects mechanical selling and profit-taking after an extraordinary run, but the structural drivers remain intact,” one commodities strategist noted. Rising oil prices from regional uncertainties have fueled inflation fears, which could eventually support gold if they prompt looser monetary policy down the line.

Technical levels showed gold finding some support near $4,600, with resistance around recent highs above $4,700. Futures contracts for April delivery reflected similar moves, with open interest and volume indicating active trader participation.

For investors, the current dip raises questions about whether it represents a buying opportunity or signals further consolidation. Historical patterns suggest gold often rebounds after sharp sell-offs when fundamental demand reasserts itself. However, short-term headwinds from a resilient U.S. economy and delayed rate cuts could keep pressure on prices in the near term.

Silver prices moved in tandem, dropping more sharply in percentage terms on Friday, underscoring broad precious metals weakness. Platinum and palladium showed mixed but generally softer performance.

Retail investors have increasingly turned to gold through exchange-traded funds, physical bars and coins, and mining stocks. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF and similar vehicles saw flows that mirrored broader sentiment shifts.

Economists point to several macroeconomic drivers. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand. Higher real yields similarly diminish appeal compared to interest-bearing assets. Yet persistent fiscal deficits, debt levels and long-term diversification trends by institutions continue to underpin the bull case.

In Asia, where physical gold demand is traditionally strong for jewelry and investment, buyers have shown selectivity amid price swings. Chinese and Indian markets, major consumers, have navigated volatility with a mix of bargain hunting and caution.

Mining companies face their own dynamics. Higher prices in recent years boosted profitability, but cost pressures from energy and labor could intensify if volatility persists. Major producers have hedged positions or expanded output selectively.

Looking ahead, key events include upcoming economic data releases that could influence Fed expectations. Any signs of cooling inflation or labor market softening might revive rate-cut hopes and support gold. Conversely, hotter-than-expected readings could reinforce dollar strength.

Analysts emphasize that gold’s role as a hedge against uncertainty has not diminished. In an environment of elevated geopolitical risks, potential policy shifts and questions over reserve currencies, the metal retains strategic importance for central banks and sophisticated investors.

Some observers warn of leveraged positions unwinding during the recent rout, amplifying moves beyond pure fundamentals. Such liquidations can create oversold conditions that set the stage for rebounds.

For everyday investors, financial advisors often recommend allocating a modest portion of portfolios — typically 5-10% — to gold as diversification rather than a directional bet. Physical ownership, ETFs or futures each carry different considerations around storage, liquidity and costs.

The broader commodity complex showed varied responses Friday, with energy markets reacting to supply concerns while industrial metals faced demand worries from global growth outlooks.

Gold’s journey to current levels marks a transformation from its traditional trading range. What was once seen as a relic has become a mainstream asset class, with institutional adoption growing through vehicles that provide exposure without physical handling.

Despite the Friday decline, year-to-date performance for gold in 2026 remains positive for many holders who bought at lower levels. The metal’s ability to deliver returns uncorrelated with stocks and bonds continues to attract attention in diversified strategies.

Market participants will watch next week’s calendar closely for any fresh catalysts. Earnings from major financial firms, inflation metrics and comments from policymakers could sway sentiment.

In jewelry and industrial applications, gold demand has held steady in certain segments, though high prices have prompted some substitution or delayed purchases.

As trading continues, volatility is likely to remain elevated. Traders using technical analysis are monitoring moving averages and support zones for clues on the next leg.

Overall, while near-term pressures from currency and yield dynamics have driven gold lower to around $4,654.86, the consensus among major banks points to higher prices by year-end 2026. Central bank accumulation averaging hundreds of tonnes quarterly, combined with investor flows and potential monetary easing, forms the foundation for optimism.

Investors considering entry points may view the current consolidation as a pause in a longer-term uptrend rather than a reversal. However, prudence dictates monitoring dollar strength and yield movements closely.

Gold has proven resilient through multiple cycles, often rewarding patient holders during periods of economic or geopolitical stress. Friday’s 2.73% drop serves as a reminder of the metal’s volatility even as its strategic value endures.

The West of England’s biggest film and TV studios is actually a money-generating service

The West of England’s largest film and television studios has released information about its finances for the first time, Business Live can exclusively reveal. The Bristol City Council-owned Bottle Yard, in Hengrove, provided the details following a Freedom of Information (FOI) request.

The studios, which have hosted big-name productions such as popular BBC comedy-drama Boarders and Sky Original thriller Inheritance, came under fire last year for refusing to confirm whether it makes a profit for council taxpayers. Previous requests by journalists, local councillors and members of the public for any information on the Bottle Yard’s finances have repeatedly been rejected on the grounds the accounts are “commercially sensitive”.

Business Live logged an FOI on January 27 and Bristol City Council took 64 days to reply, despite regulations requiring public bodies to respond within 20 days. It comes months after the local authority lost a legal battle with the Information Commissioner’s Office over failures to clear an FOI backlog built up under the last administration.

In its response to the FOI, the council told Business Live that over the last financial year (2025-2026) the Bottle Yard’s budget was -£177,625. However, the negative figure does not mean the Bottle Yard is making a loss – in fact it is the opposite. It is understood that Bristol City Council uses an accounting approach that targets zero to balance the books over the year, with money generated by the studios used to reach that target.

Business Live understands the Bottle Yard is an income-generating service – meaning it makes money for the council – and was targeting a surplus of £177,625 for the year. It is understood the studios achieved a surplus for 2025-2026, but it is not yet known whether that surplus is at the full target. As Business Live understands, this is because the council has not yet completed its year-end outturn calculations.

The council also provided details of the Bottle Yard’s budget for the new financial year, which was set on Wednesday, April 1. According to the FOI, the budget for 2026-2027 is -£81,740. Although this year’s income budget is lower, it is understood the Bottle Yard is fully funded for the next 12 months and is expected to make a surplus of £81,000.

The release of the information comes just months after Bristol City Council declined a Freedom of Information request by investigative journalist and council transparency campaigner Andrew Lynch for any financial figures.

Bristol City Council refused a number of other information requests logged by Business Live, however, including how much Katherine Nash, head of studios at the Bottle Yard, gets paid. Nash, who was appointed in September, is responsible for all the commercial aspects of the studios’ two sites and 11 stages, including sales, operations and partnerships.

The local authority told Business Live it could not provide details of her earnings, including bonuses, as it fell under personal data as defined by the Data Protection Act – and because this was information about another individual they were not able to share it. It also refused to disclose who was considering buying the studios last year. In July, the sale of the Bottle Yard to a private and unknown buyer collapsed, costing taxpayers some £430,000.

The council told Business Live it could not reveal the details, claiming it was part of a “confidential process”. When asked if the council would put the studios back up for sale, it told Business Live a decision had not been made yet but the studios remain open for business.

Last year, Bristol City Council leader Tony Dyer said the council’s aim was “to secure a sustainable future for the studios and the opportunity to grow into its huge potential.”

“Those aims remain the same as does our determination to ensure that one of our city’s most successful regeneration projects continues an upward trajectory to deliver more jobs and more investment for Bristol,” he said at the time.

According to Bristol Film Office – a division of Bristol City Council – films and television shows produced in Bristol over 2024-2025 boosted the local economy by more than £46m. Some 29 major productions were assisted by the Bottle Yard Studios over the period, including three feature films and 26 high-end television productions, with a total of 736 filming days supported in the studio and on location.

The Tesco and Sainsbury’s supplier said it has seen only a small impact from higher haulage costs due to fuel price rises but warned ‘these conditions have now started to change’

Household goods manufacturer McBride, maker of Oven Pride, has announced “temporary” price increases to offset escalating costs stemming from the Iran war and warned it was observing early indicators of supply shortages triggered by the conflict.

The company, which produces branded and own-label household and cleaning products for retailers including Tesco and Sainsbury’s, said that until recently it had only experienced a modest impact from elevated haulage expenses owing to fuel price rises, but noted “these conditions have now started to change”.

It reported that the “most heavily impacted” chemical and packaging suppliers are implementing price rises as they confront mounting costs for petrochemical-derived feedstocks and increased energy expenses in chemical and packaging manufacturing.

“The first signs of possible shortages in supply chains around the world are beginning to emerge,” it added.

Manchester-based McBride indicated its costs are climbing this month and will rise further because of the war, and is preparing to increase prices to counter the impact.

“The group has already informed all customers about temporary price adjustments, or surcharges to current pricing, to recover these higher, beyond our control, cost impacts from the Middle East conflict,” McBride said.

The warnings emerge amid growing concerns over the conflict’s impact on supply and costs, having driven oil prices soaring above 100 US dollars per barrel and causing widespread disruption to global shipping. Supermarket representatives gathered with Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband at No 11 on Wednesday to examine the difficulties arising from the conflict, agreeing to jointly explore ways to alleviate the cost-of-living burden on consumers.

McBride’s remarks came as part of an update in which the company also unveiled a £34.5 million acquisition of Eurotab – a France-based specialist manufacturer of cleaning tablets, including those designed for dishwashers.

TUCSON, Ariz. — More than two months after 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie vanished from her home in the Catalina Foothills area north of Tucson, authorities say the investigation into her apparent abduction remains active but has yielded no arrests, no confirmed motive and no trace of the mother of NBC “Today” show co-host Savannah Guthrie.

Guthrie was last seen late on the night of Jan. 31, 2026, after returning home from dinner with family. She failed to appear the next morning, Feb. 1, at a friend’s house to watch a livestreamed church service — a routine she followed regularly. When she did not answer calls or show up, family members grew concerned and contacted authorities. Pima County Sheriff’s deputies responded and quickly determined the circumstances suggested she had been taken against her will from her residence.

Investigators described signs of a possible forced entry or disturbance at the home, though details have been limited to protect the ongoing probe. No signs of a struggle or assault were immediately apparent inside, but the case was treated as an abduction from the outset. Surveillance footage from the property and nearby areas has been reviewed extensively, with some video released publicly showing limited activity but nothing conclusively identifying a suspect.

As of early April 2026, Guthrie has been missing for more than 60 days. Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos has stated publicly that he believes the 84-year-old widow was specifically targeted, raising concerns that the perpetrator or perpetrators could strike again. No ransom demand has been confirmed as legitimate by authorities, though multiple ransom notes referencing Bitcoin payments reportedly surfaced in the weeks following the disappearance, adding layers of complexity and speculation to the case.

The FBI joined the investigation early, offering a $100,000 reward that the family later supplemented with a private $1 million offer for information leading to Guthrie’s safe return or the arrest and conviction of those responsible. Savannah Guthrie and her siblings have made emotional public pleas, including video statements urging anyone with information to come forward. “No detail is too small,” the family said in a recent statement, emphasizing that even seemingly insignificant observations could prove vital.

Forensic efforts have included analysis of black gloves discovered roughly two miles from the home, which contained DNA from an unknown male. That profile was entered into national databases but has not produced a match so far. Cadaver dogs were deployed in searches of surrounding desert areas but have been placed on hold as leads have not directed teams to specific sites. Neighbors have been questioned about unusual activity, internet disruptions or unfamiliar vehicles in the days leading up to and following Jan. 31.

The high-profile nature of the case, tied to Savannah Guthrie’s prominent role on the “Today” show, has drawn national and international media attention. Experts have described the disappearance as unusual for several reasons: the victim’s age, the apparent lack of immediate motive such as robbery or random violence, and the targeted nature suggested by investigators. Some retired law enforcement officials have theorized the involvement of multiple people, citing the logistics of removing an elderly woman from her home without immediate detection.

Guthrie, a widow since 1988, lived independently in the Tucson area. She was known in her community for her faith, family connections and regular church involvement. Her children, including Savannah, have described her as vibrant and active despite her age. The family has been cleared of any involvement by the sheriff’s office, which publicly stated that all relatives and spouses cooperated fully and were eliminated as suspects.

The investigation has expanded to examine surveillance footage and tips from dates earlier than the disappearance, including around Jan. 24, as detectives look for patterns or preparatory activity. Tips continue to pour in — more than 1,500 in the first month after the expanded reward — but authorities stress the need for verified, actionable information amid a flood of speculation on social media and true-crime forums.

As the case enters its third month, experts warn that the passage of time complicates efforts. Cold-case specialists note that after the initial 48 to 72 hours, the chances of a quick resolution diminish, and investigations shift toward long-term evidence analysis, digital forensics and behavioral profiling. The desert environment around Tucson adds challenges for physical searches, with vast areas of rugged terrain where evidence could be difficult to locate.

The disappearance has also spotlighted broader issues surrounding missing persons cases, particularly among older adults. Advocates say high-profile cases like Guthrie’s can bring renewed attention and resources to thousands of other unresolved disappearances that receive far less publicity. Some families of long-missing loved ones have reported that the Guthrie coverage has reopened personal wounds while also encouraging more people to report tips in their own cases.

Pima County authorities continue to urge the public to report any information, no matter how minor. A dedicated tip line and online portal have been established. The sheriff’s office has emphasized that the case remains a priority, with multiple agencies collaborating, including the FBI’s Phoenix field office.

Savannah Guthrie has returned intermittently to her “Today” show duties, often off-camera for emotional support from colleagues, while balancing family responsibilities and the search for her mother. In public statements, she has expressed both hope for a miracle and acknowledgment of the painful uncertainty.

No persons of interest have been publicly named, and no arrests have been made. Speculation about motives — ranging from targeted retaliation to opportunistic crime — remains unconfirmed. Theories involving accomplices or prior surveillance of the home have circulated among analysts, but officials have declined to comment on specifics.

The case continues to captivate the public, with daily updates on local Arizona news outlets and national coverage on networks where Savannah Guthrie is a familiar face. True-crime podcasts and YouTube channels have dissected timelines, released footage and expert opinions, though authorities caution against unverified claims that could hinder the probe.

As April 2026 progresses, the family and investigators persist in their efforts. Search operations, forensic testing and tip evaluation continue without a clear resolution in sight. For the Guthrie family and the Tucson community, the agonizing wait for answers stretches on, with hopes pinned on a breakthrough that has so far remained elusive.

Anyone with information about Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance is urged to contact the Pima County Sheriff’s Department or the FBI tip line. Rewards remain available for credible leads that advance the case.