Business
Terreno Realty Is Great, But We Sold (NYSE:TRNO)
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We recently closed out of our position in Terreno (TRNO) and wanted to walk readers through our thought process and how we look at the company today.
We sold shares on 7/9/2026. For readers interested, we will post all the sales at the end of the article.
Before we sold, Terreno was flirting with the border between our neutral/overpriced ranges. Shares were trading at 31.4x consensus forward AFFO. Technically, it’s probably a little bit lower if we factor in that Q2 2027 AFFO per share will probably be higher than Q2 2026 AFFO per share. However, even adjusting for higher AFFO, the multiple would still be very large.
July 9th Thought Process
Terreno has been one of my favorite REITs for several years. I viewed it as a great long-term position. However, I am looking at shares trading over 30x forward AFFO while the 2-year Treasury is over 4% (4.16% presently), the 10-year is at 4.535%, and the 30-year is at 5.054%. I’m feeling a bit skeptical about multiples around 30x AFFO (or higher) in this environment. If we assume that REITs with more “normal” growth levels typically trade around 14x to 20x AFFO, then we have to assume several years of strong growth. While that’s certainly possible, I wouldn’t want to use it as the base scenario.
AFFO Estimates And Multiple
Our sheets are currently using a forward estimate of $2.19.
If we were to use AFFO estimates for the next 4 quarters starting with Q3 2026, then the consensus estimate would increase to $2.25. That’s better, but not substantially better.
Even if we use the $2.25 value, at $68.68 shares would be trading a hair over 30.5x forward AFFO estimates.
If we use $2.18 or $2.19, the multiple is 31.36x or 31.50x, respectively.
That’s a pretty high multiple given the Treasury yields. While I still really like TRNO, I felt it was prudent to harvest gains here.
The REIT Forum

Note: TRNO has rallied even higher since we closed our position. As of 7/15/2026, shares are at $72.09.
Why TRNO Can Achieve A High Multiple
Our thesis played out well with the industrial real estate portfolio delivering strong growth in same property NOI (Net Operating Income). That drove significant growth in AFFO per share, which supports TRNO trading at pretty high multiples of AFFO per share. The market likes seeing strong growth across several key indicators. However, the valuation still hit a point where I felt it was prudent to just take the gains.
Issuing Shares
TRNO was issuing equity during Q1 2026:
They felt it was reasonable to issue it at $64.85, and I agree with them. That was a very reasonable price for choosing to issue new equity. Issuing at $68.68 (5.9% higher) would make even more sense. That’s the right choice for management as they look to maximize value for shareholders.
Impact Of Treasury Rates
The last time I purchased TRNO was in 2023 at $62.99. That’s not dramatically lower than the current price. The AFFO multiple was similar. What changed?
Well, the interest rate scenario changed quite a bit as shown by the 10-year and 30-year Treasury rates:
The 10-year Treasury yield is up 60 basis points (that means 0.60%) and currently trending higher (based on the current yield relative to the moving averages). The 30-year is up just over 100 basis points and also in a trend higher.
That feels ugly. It’s been less of an issue for TRNO since they have such little debt on their balance sheet. Consequently, they have been less exposed to interest rate pressure than most equity REITs. However, it makes it harder to justify high multiples.
Adjusted EBITDA/Total Enterprise Value
Doing a full model for “Market Implied Cap Rate” is pretty slow. In theory it seems like it would be quick to update, but in practice it can get messy doing quarter after quarter.
A simpler method is calculating adjusted EBITDA to Total Enterprise Value. It is less precise (which is negative), but it factors in overhead (which is positive).
Often there won’t be preferred stock or minority interest, which makes it even simpler.
The bigger question is simply which version of EBITDA we want to use. Do we use the most recent quarter? Do we try to run a forward estimate? Sometimes the answers matter a great deal, and sometimes they don’t. In this case, the picture is pretty clear regardless. One adjustment I really like to make, though, is to revise “adjusted EBITDA” by deducting stock-based compensation. That’s fundamentally overhead by another name.
Goal Of Calculation
This is a way to approximate the amount of adjusted EBITDA the company is producing relative to the total value assigned to the company.
It can be a quick way to compare REITs. However, investors should be aware that all REITS do not simply deserve to trade at the same valuation. That would be silly. Some properties are simply more desirable, and some management teams are superior. For now I’m simply going to refer to adjusted EBITDA minus stock-based compensation as “revised EBITDA.” I wanted to compare TRNO with Rexford (REXR).
Using Q1 2026, I came to the following estimates when removing stock-based compensation:
-
TRNO at $68.62 has a revised EBITDA yield of 3.96%. This is why it makes sense for TRNO to issue shares.
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REXR at $34.42 has a revised EBITDA yield of 6.12%. This is why it makes sense for REXR to repurchase shares.
Note: We don’t want to use growth rates in adjusted EBITDA or revised EBITDA unless we control for the expected change in the shares outstanding and net debt outstanding.
That’s the gap in valuation. It is very material.
Hypothetically, what if REXR climbed all the way to our “overpriced” level? The revised EBITDA yield would drop from 6.12% to 4.79%.
Final Thoughts
I expect that TRNO will do a better job (than REXR) of growing every metric over the next year or two. However, I don’t expect it to be remotely large enough to offset the enormous gap in these valuation metrics.
We currently view TRNO as overpriced despite the company’s strong execution. Even after our sale, shares continued climbing. We’ll continue watching the company closely because it’s still one of my favorite REITs. I simply don’t like today’s valuation. Here is the record of our sale:
Business
President Trump discusses Iran, economy at defense summit in Pennsylvania
President Donald Trump tells FOX Business’ Ed Lawrence his thoughts on personal threats from Iran, expressing confidence in security and more, as a new round of U.S. strikes in the region is reported on ‘The Claman Countdown.’
In his first public appearance outside the White House since the NATO summit amid threats to his life by Iran, President Donald Trump said Wednesday he doesn’t “think about it” and that his focus is on taking out the Iranian regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which he said has lost roughly 90% of its weapons capabilities due to continued strikes.
Trump made the remarks Tuesday during an exclusive interview with FOX Business ahead of the annual Defense and Innovation Summit in Carlisle, Pennsylvania, where he also highlighted gains in U.S. defense and the economy and announced $10 billion in private investments for the defense industry.
The president said he was not concerned about threats from Iran, revealing that the U.S. carried out another strike on the country within the past 24 hours. He also suggested he could eliminate the IRGC the same way he defeated ISIS during his first administration.
“Well, we’re going to be in good shape,” Trump told FOX Business correspondent Edward Lawrence. “They’ve been depleted. Their weapons are down 91%. The drone capacity is way down. They still have, but not a lot. Their manufacturing capacity is down. Their rocket launchers and their missile launchers are way down. Their missiles are way down.”
OIL PRICES FLUCTUATE AS TRUMP’S IRAN DEAL COULD FULLY REOPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ

President Donald Trump speaks with Secretary of War Pete Hegseth upon arrival at the U.S. Army War College Field Landing Zone Wednesday on his way to the Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit in Carlisle, Pa. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)
Trump said the U.S. is “building up” its military with the Defense Production Act and companies working to refill supplies and replenish American forces.
“We have to watch ourselves. You know, it’s called America First. And we’re building up our reserves very rapidly. And as you probably also know, the great companies that we have are now building plants, although not just taking one plant that they’ve used for a long time and doing overtime,” he said.
“We have four or five, six plants by each of the major companies being built, brand-new plants in different areas to make, as an example, you could say the Patriot [missile], which is so heavily sought, or the Tomahawk missile.
“So, we want to have it now. We have to wait a year to get something or a year-and-a-half or two years. We want to have it where you wait a week or maybe less, and we’re going to have that very soon.”
OIL PRICES PLUNGE TO LOWEST LEVELS SINCE EARLY MARCH AFTER TRUMP SIGNS IRAN DEAL

President Donald Trump speaks to the press as he arrives for a speech at the Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit at U.S. Army War College Wednesday in Carlisle, Pa. (Alex Wong/Getty Images / Getty Images)
The president reiterated his call for lower interest rates, saying the U.S. “should have the lowest interest rate anywhere in the world by far.”
He said he supports Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to help achieve that goal, while predicting resistance from what he described as a “hostile” Federal Reserve board.
Trump also touted what he described as a surge in U.S. manufacturing investment, claiming more than $19.2 trillion is flowing into the country from allies and foreign investors, including Saudi Arabia, as defense companies ramp up construction of new factories and stockpile equipment.

President Donald Trump arrives to speak at the Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit at U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, Pa. (Alex Wong/Getty Images / Getty Images)
The president further asserted that the U.S. trade deficit has fallen 68% over the past year, crediting his tariff policies despite legal challenges.
“Our trade deficit is down 68% in one year,” Trump said. “That’s because of the use of tariffs, and I wish I could use them faster. The Supreme Court said you can’t use them as fast as I was using them, but I can use them actually more effectively by the method we’re doing.”
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Looking ahead, Trump said he expects inflation to continue easing through the end of 2026, arguing that oil prices will ultimately move lower after a period of volatility.
“I think what’s happening is oil is going to be a little bit of a yo-yo for a while,” he said. “It goes up a little bit, goes down a little bit. And when this [conflict with Iran] is over, oil is going to drop like a rock.”
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Arizona Police Warn Scammers Are Using Fake QR Codes to Exploit Nancy Guthrie’s Missing Person Case Today
TUCSON, Ariz. — The Pima County Sheriff’s Department issued a public warning this week alerting residents to fraudulent QR code scams that are exploiting the ongoing investigation into the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of NBC News anchor Savannah Guthrie.
Officials said they have identified fraudulent social media posts and emails circulating online that link QR codes directly to donation requests tied to the investigation. The department emphasized that it has never solicited, and will never solicit, donations from the public in connection with this or any other criminal investigation.
Officials Detail the Scam
In its public statement, the Pima County Sheriff’s Department described the specific pattern investigators have observed.
“The Pima County Sheriff’s Department is aware of posts circulating about the Guthrie investigation that include a QR code requesting money,” officials said. “PCSD will never ask for money related to this case, or any investigation.”
The department urged the public to remain cautious and avoid engaging with any such requests.
“Please do not send money to people you do not know or scan QR codes requesting payment. If you see one of these posts, ignore it and report it. Stay alert and help spread the word,” the statement continued.
A Case That Has Drawn National Attention
Nancy Guthrie vanished from her Tucson residence more than five months ago, in a case that remains classified as a potential kidnapping by both the FBI and local law enforcement authorities. Despite receiving countless tips from the public, no one has been formally charged in connection with her disappearance as the investigation continues.
The high-profile nature of the case, tied to Guthrie’s daughter’s prominent role as a national television anchor, has kept the disappearance in the public eye for months, drawing both genuine public concern and, increasingly, attention from criminals looking to exploit that concern for financial gain.
A Pattern of Exploitation Since the Case Began
This is not the first instance of bad actors attempting to capitalize on the Guthrie case. The investigation has already drawn attention from individuals issuing fake ransom demands, as well as scammers spreading false information to manipulate public sympathy and attention.
Federal authorities recently secured a guilty plea from a California man who admitted to harassing the Guthrie family through phone calls and text messages containing false claims related to cryptocurrency, according to reporting on the case. That prosecution illustrates the extent to which the Guthrie family has already been targeted by individuals seeking to exploit the ongoing tragedy for personal gain.
A Family Pleading for Answers
Savannah Guthrie has repeatedly and publicly appealed for any reliable information regarding her mother’s disappearance. The family has established a $1 million reward for information leading to her mother’s safe return, while the FBI has separately offered its own reward for information that leads to an arrest and conviction in the case.
In emotional public remarks, Savannah Guthrie has emphasized how deeply the ongoing uncertainty has affected her family.
“Somebody knows something,” Guthrie said through tears. “This is a news story today that’s on your radar, but this is the life that my sister lives, that I live, that my brother lives, that our extended families live, that our children live every day.”
A Broader Pattern of Scams Tied to High-Profile Cases
The exploitation of the Guthrie case fits within a broader, troubling pattern in which criminals target high-profile missing person investigations and other emotionally charged news events to defraud the public. According to statistics released by the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center, Americans lost more than $16.6 billion to cybercrimes in 2024 alone, underscoring the scale of the broader challenge law enforcement agencies face in combating online fraud.
Cybersecurity specialists have consistently warned that scammers frequently take advantage of emotionally charged moments, including missing person cases, natural disasters and other tragedies, to manipulate victims into sending money or clicking on malicious links disguised as legitimate donation requests.
Guidance for the Public
Law enforcement officials and cybersecurity experts are urging members of the public to take several precautions in light of the ongoing scam activity. Recommendations include avoiding unfamiliar QR codes entirely, verifying any information related to active investigations only through official law enforcement channels, and immediately reporting any suspicious posts or messages encountered online rather than engaging with them directly.
Officials specifically emphasized that legitimate law enforcement agencies conducting criminal investigations do not solicit direct financial donations from members of the public, a distinction they say is important for residents to keep in mind when encountering any similar requests tied to future high-profile cases.
An Investigation That Continues
As detectives continue working to determine what happened to Nancy Guthrie, authorities say the case remains an active priority for both local and federal investigators. The Pima County Sheriff’s Department has reiterated its call for the public to remain vigilant against online fraud while the investigation proceeds, emphasizing that any assistance the public can provide toward the case should come through direct communication with verified law enforcement channels rather than through unsolicited social media posts or fundraising links.
Anyone with legitimate information related to Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance is encouraged to contact the Pima County Sheriff’s Department or the FBI directly, rather than responding to any third-party posts, messages or QR codes claiming to be affiliated with the investigation.
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‘Done deal’: CM Himanta Biswa Sarma on NDA seat-sharing for Assam polls
Among the NDA constituents in the state, the BJP, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) have members in the assembly. Rabha Hasong Joutha Sangram Samiti (RHJSS) and Janashakti Party (JP) are also part of the NDA, but they do not have any MLAs.
“Our NDA alliance is complete. We know who will contest where; it is a done deal. There is no issue in stitching the alliance,” Sarma told reporters at the state BJP headquarters.
“After every process is complete, the state leadership will meet Union Home Minister Amit Shah with the list of probable candidates,” he added.
On January 7, Sarma had said the BJP was likely to formalise its seat-sharing agreement with its allies by February 15.
On December 5 last year, he had said the finalisation was expected to be over by January 15.
The elections for the 126-member assembly are expected to take place in March-April. This will be the first election after the delimitation exercise, done in 2023.Post delimitation, many seats and their geographical boundaries have been changed, while some non-reserved seats were reserved and vice versa. This has led to complications within the ruling and opposition coalitions.
At present, the BJP has 64 members in the assembly, while AGP has nine, UPPL has seven, and the BPF has three.
In the opposition camp, the Congress has 26 MLAs, AIUDF has 15, and CPI(M) has one. There is one Independent legislator as well.
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Tom Brady joins eMed to help expand GLP-1 access and fight obesity
NFL legend and eMed Chief Wellness Officer Tom Brady and eMed CEO Linda Yaccarino discuss eMed’s mission on ‘The Claman Countdown.’
As GLP-1 weight loss medications continue to surge in popularity, NFL legend Tom Brady is getting in on the action, using his wellness brand to “democratize” the health care system in a way the world has “never seen.”
The seven-time Super Bowl champion has teamed up with eMed, a digital health company managing sustainable ways to offer GLP-1 drugs while helping employers reduce health insurance claims.
“There’s an epidemic in America, the disease of obesity, and how can we democratize health and wellness in a way that the world has never seen?” Brady said in an exclusive interview with “The Claman Countdown” Wednesday.
DR OZ LINKS OBESITY TO CHRONIC DISEASE SURGE, SAYS GLP-1S CAN ‘JUMPSTART’ BETTER HEALTH

Tom Brady before a game at AT&T Stadium Sept, 15, 2024, in Arlington, Texas. (Sam Hodde/Getty Images / Getty Images)
Serving as eMed’s chief wellness officer, Brady hopes to help people live better, healthier lives by harnessing the power of weight loss medications, lamenting America’s obesity epidemic.
“I love seeing people live a better life, live a healthier life, feel better, do the things that they want to do in the end. It’s always been a struggle in our country,” the football legend said.
“There’s no debate about the way that this medicine is working right now in terms of keeping people and getting people on their wellness journey started.”
TOM BRADY LAUNCHES GOOD NUT COCONUT WATER LINE WITH GOPUFF IN MARKET EXPECTED TO REACH $11B BY 2030
EMed CEO Linda Yaccarino previously said the goal is to apply Brady’s “rigor” to improve the health of the American workforce and minimize chronic diseases.

A woman injects a GLP-1 into her stomach in this undated photo taken at an undisclosed location. (iStock / iStock)
With more than 60% of Americans receiving health benefits through an employer, eMed aims to incentivize companies to cover GLP-1 medications for eligible workers, Yaccarino said.
“We do a great job of saving employers’ money and getting people healthy,” Brady said.
AMERICANS ARE GIVING UP MULTIVITAMINS FOR A DIFFERENT DAILY HEALTH HABIT, STUDY FINDS
“There’s finally, for the first time, a health benefit, attacking all these chronic diseases and a financial benefit to employers. So, it’s giving them incentive to cover the medications,” Yaccarino added.

Tom Brady shakes a young fan’s hand at Fanatics Fest. (Fanatics / Fox News)
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Yaccarino described GLP-1 medications as the “pharmaceutical revolution” of the modern age while outlining the support eMed provides to patients.
“Once we bring our members onto our program, we combine AI, technology and continuous clinical support so they stay with us,” she said.
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LARRY KUDLOW: Has Goldilocks returned?
Once again Wall Street was surprised by a deflationary wholesale price report where the level of the so-called producer price index actually dropped by three-tenths of a percent. And it’s worth noting that after rising 1.1 percent in April, the PPI eased to 0.6 percent in May. And then the outright decline of three-tenths in June.
This follows yesterday’s deflationary CPI report. Both are a welcome relief from the inflationary reports of recent months. Real average hourly earnings rose 0.8 percent in June. That’s the best monthly real wage gain in 11 years, excluding the pandemic. Wall Street is also wrong about its prediction that the Fed will be raising rates, as these deflationary reports have taken rate hikes off the board, undoubtedly for the rest of the year I think.
Actually, my view is the Fed’s not going to change their target rates until Chairman Kevin Warsh’s various task forces report. There are five panels with some very smart people on them. They’re gonna look at the appropriate inflation measures, the Fed’s balance sheet, communication and forward guidance, economic data quality, and productivity.
National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett discusses the strength of the Trump economy, the administration’s pro-growth agenda and the push for additional tax cuts on ‘Kudlow.’
This is part of Mr. Warsh’s regime change. And it’s a very good idea. Yet my hunch is not to expect any big policy changes until those task forces publish their work, and the central bank figures out how to absorb the reports and then change them.
Meanwhile, even as President Trump steps up the bombing of Iran in response to the IRGC busting the ceasefire and the memorandum of understanding, inflationary expectations in our financial markets are actually coming down.
Indeed even the WTI oil price seems to have stopped rising. I think word money markets want to see regime change in Iran even more than regime change at the Fed. For the record, the two-year CPI break-evens have dropped all the way to 1.89 percent, that’s below the Fed’s 2 percent target, the dollar is strong, and precious metals are soft.
Meanwhile profits, productivity, and stock prices are all soaring. After the pro-growth incentives of the One, Big, Beautiful Bill of a year ago. So at least for now, we’ve got falling prices and a rising economy. Has Goldilocks returned?
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