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Thai Baht Buckles Under the Weight of Oil Shock and a Hawkish Fed

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Thailand lifts cap on forex repatriation to temper baht rally

The Thai baht faces downward pressure due to a dovish central bank, widening US interest rate differentials, and regional investor caution. Recovery hinges on Middle East de-escalation, a Fed pivot, or improved Thai exports. Hedging is advised.


Key Points

  • The Thai baht faces short-term pressure, potentially testing 33.00-33.20 resistance. Factors like Middle East tensions, US rate hike expectations, and the Bank of Thailand’s dovish policy contribute to weakness.
  • The baht’s appeal is diminished by a significant interest rate differential with the US, leading to capital outflows from Thai equities and bonds. This weakness is shared by other Asian net oil importers.
  • A baht recovery hinges on a Middle East ceasefire, a US Federal Reserve pivot, or improved Thai export demand. Until then, hedging is advised, with the baht remaining in a downtrend unless it breaks through 32.00.

Baht’s Short-Term Challenges and Key Resistance Levels

The Thai baht is currently facing short-term pressure, with market strategists indicating it could test the 33.00–33.20 resistance band. This weakness is influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike expectations. However, a de-escalation of the Middle East conflict or signs of softening US economic data that dampen rate-hike anticipation could trigger a baht recovery towards the 32.50 support level. Krungthai Global Markets has established a weekly trading range for the baht at 32.50–32.20, with a tighter 24-hour band of 32.85–33.05. Earlier forecasts from Bank of America had projected baht weakness towards 33 per dollar by mid-2026, attributing this to the cumulative impact of elevated oil prices and a contracting current account buffer, especially during the seasonally weaker second quarter.

Domestic Policy and Regional Currency Pressures

The Bank of Thailand’s accommodative monetary policy is a significant contributor to the baht’s current predicament. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has implemented three rate cuts since October 2025, bringing the benchmark rate to 1.00%, its lowest point since September 2022, in an effort to stimulate economic recovery. With projected GDP growth at a mere 1.5% for 2026, significantly below potential due to US trade measures and energy shocks, and with core inflation expected to remain stable, the MPC is likely to maintain current interest rates at its upcoming meeting. This contrasts sharply with the US Federal Reserve’s higher rate of 3.50–3.75%, creating a substantial interest rate differential that makes the baht less attractive for foreign investment, leading to capital outflows.

Regional Vulnerabilities and Paths to Recovery

Thailand is categorized among the more vulnerable Asian currency markets, with bearish sentiment prevalent towards currencies of net oil importers like the Indonesian rupiah, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, and the Thai baht itself. While some regional central banks, like Bank Indonesia, have implemented aggressive rate hikes and direct market interventions, these measures have not entirely quelled bearish positions. In contrast, net energy exporters such as Malaysia and Singapore have seen their currencies perform better. For the baht to strengthen, a durable Middle East ceasefire reducing oil prices, a dovish shift in Fed policy, or a significant improvement in Thailand’s trade balance driven by tech exports are crucial. Until then, hedging strategies are advised, and the baht remains in a downtrend unless it can decisively reclaim the 32.00 level.

Source : Thai Baht Buckles Under the Weight of Oil Shock and a Hawkish Fed

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Macy’s EVP, COO & CFO Edwards Jr. sells $408,726 in stock

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Macy’s EVP, COO & CFO Edwards Jr. sells $408,726 in stock

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VAT cut on theme parks and kids’ meals comes into force

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A stock image of a family enjoying a rollercoaster.

Families are expected to get cheaper access to theme parks, zoos and museums as well as kids’ meals as a temporary VAT cut comes in to force on Thursday for the school summer holidays.

Ticket prices at various attractions are among the activities where VAT will be reduced from 20% to 5% in what the goverment said would help with the cost of living.

The cut begins on 25 June, in time for schools breaking up in Scotland at the end of this month, followed by Northern Ireland, England and Wales in July, until 1 September.

But families, charities and firms said the measure will do little to help squeezed budgets, with some doubting the tax saving would be passed on to customers.

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Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the summer holidays could be quite expensive, and the purpose of the temporary cut to VAT on family-related activities was to “help people make those precious memories during the summer holidays, but not having to fork out too much for it”.

Alan, 42, from Brighton goes to theme parks with him family regularly but he does not expect much from the VAT cut.

“These kind of attractions are quite expensive in the first place,” he said, adding that the savings, if passed on, would be “negligible” and only benefit those who go to theme parks as a one-off.

He said the best option for his family was having a theme park pass, which they use to go to Legoland, Chessington World of Adventure and Sea Life centres.

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Helen Miller, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank, previously said the measures would lead to some savings, but estimated they would equate to an “average saving of around £10 per UK household”.

Alan says that more useful measures would be if energy and fuel costs were addressed.

“How the government can say this is going to result in any household saving is a mystery,” he said.

Asked whether the savings would be meaningful, Reeves told the BBC the government was focused on helping families.

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“Especially over the summer, things can be a bit more expensive. So we are targeting this directly at families,” she said, adding there would also be unlimited free bus travel for children in England in August.

The chancellor pointed to other measures the government has introduced including freezing prescription charges, freezing rail fares and providing energy bill relief as also helping households with cost of living pressures.

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Fair Issac Stock: Strong Earnings Growth Makes The Valuation Attractive Again (NYSE:FICO)

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Fair Issac Stock: Strong Earnings Growth Makes The Valuation Attractive Again (NYSE:FICO)

This article was written by

I’m a passionate investor from the Netherlands with 12 years of stock market experience. My articles usually contain a good overview of important investment criteria. A stock for my portfolio is of interest to me if the company has the following characteristics:1. Companies that are growing in both revenue, earnings and free cash flow.2. Companies that have excellent growth prospects.3. Stocks with favorable valuations.I prefer steadily growing companies with high free cash flow margins, dividend stocks and stocks with generous share repurchase programs.Are you looking for European stock coverage? Visit my website (it’s free!): www.capitalinsights.euDisclaimer: My articles do not provide financial advice, they reflect my own findings and insights.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in FICO over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Q3 2026 Earnings Call June 24, 2026 4:30 PM EDT

Company Participants

Satya Kumar – Corporate VP of Investor Relations & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehrotra – CEO, President & Chairman
Mark Murphy – Executive VP & CFO

Conference Call Participants

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Timothy Arcuri – UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
Joseph Moore – Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Christopher Muse – Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Research Division
Vivek Arya – BofA Securities, Research Division
Sreekrishnan Sankarnarayanan – TD Cowen, Research Division

Presentation

Operator

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Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us, and welcome to Micron Technology’s Fiscal Third Quarter 2026 Financial Conference Call. After today’s prepared remarks, we will host a question-and-answer session. Webcast viewers, please note that you will be able to advance the slides as you view at your own pace.

I will now hand the conference over to Satya Kumar, Corporate Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury. Satya, please go ahead.

Satya Kumar
Corporate VP of Investor Relations & Treasurer

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Thank you, and welcome to Micron Technology’s Fiscal Third Quarter 2026 Financial Conference Call. On the call with me today are Sanjay Mehrotra, our Chairman, President and CEO; and Mark Murphy, our CFO. Today’s call is being webcast from our Investor Relations site at investors.micron.com including audio and slides. In addition, the press release detailing our quarterly results has been posted on the website, along with the prepared remarks for this call.

Today’s discussion contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements include statements regarding our future financial and operating performance and our business model, as well as trends and expectations in our business, customers, market, industry products and regulatory and other matters. These statements are based on our current assumptions, and we assume no obligation to update these statements. Please refer to our most recent financial reports on Form 10-K, Forms 10-Q and

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Apollo Private-Credit Fund Hit With Nearly 17% Redemption Request

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Jack Pitcher hedcut

Investors asked to redeem approximately 16.8% of their shares from Apollo’s flagship retail-focused private-credit fund in the second quarter, according to a company filing on Monday.

The $26 billion fund, Apollo Debt Solutions, limited redemptions at 5%. Redemption requests were about 11% in the first quarter.

The result for the second quarter is gross outflows of approximately $700 million compared to inflows of $300 million, according to preliminary numbers disclosed in the filing.

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Wall Street ends mixed as shares in tech firms fall

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Wall Street ends mixed as shares in tech firms fall

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 ‌have closed lower, dragged by tech stocks on nagging concerns about high-flying valuations.

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Capex boom, global sourcing tailwinds fuel textile stock rally

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Capex boom, global sourcing tailwinds fuel textile stock rally
Mumbai: Shares of textile exporters surged on Wednesday after Motilal Oswal Financial Services initiated coverage on some companies with ‘buy’ ratings, citing capacity expansion and policy support as the key growth drivers. The brokerage’s price targets imply gains of 9% to 28% over Wednesday’s closing prices.

Gokaldas Exports gained 3.7%, Arvind advanced 6.3%, Pearl Global jumped 11.2%, Indo Count Industries surged 9.5%, and Welspun Living rose 5%.

Textile Exporters Ride Capex, Policy BoostAgencies

“Indian textile sector is entering a strong capex cycle with leading players announcing significant investments across garments, fabrics, technical textiles, and value-added categories to capture rising global sourcing opportunities,” said Motilal Oswal in a client note. “Unlike earlier expansion phases focused on commoditised products, the current investment cycle is directed toward higher-margin segments such as garments, MMF, specialty fabrics and advanced textiles, along with automation, sustainability and premiumisation initiatives.”

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This Isn’t the Dot-Com Selloff

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Jack Pitcher hedcut

📣 “All these comparisons to 1999-2000, to us, are totally out of line… It’s a bit of profit-taking, but we see the medium-term outlook as still very positive.”

Daniel Morris, chief market strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, on this week’s selloff in tech stocks.

Technology companies largely been meeting their expectations for earnings growth, which are ultimately driven by real demand for artificial-intelligence services and don’t appear out of line with reality, according to Morris.

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JPMorgan turns cautious on IT, sees growth headwinds ahead

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JPMorgan turns cautious on IT, sees growth headwinds ahead
Mumbai: JPMorgan said it sees further growth headwinds for the Information Technology companies over the next two years as the sector faces an uncertain demand environment from an unprecedented confluence of technology and business cycle headwinds from generative AI-led deflation and geopolitics.

The brokerage downgraded HCL Technologies, Tata Technologies and Wipro to underweight, as current prices have yet to capture the price action so far. Its top picks remain TCS, Infosys, TechM, Coforge, Persistent and Sagility.

JPMorgan Flags IT Risks, Cuts  Revenue EstimatesAgencies

Weak demand, geopolitical uncertainty and AI-led deflation weigh on sector growth outlook for FY27

JPMorgan said it sees further cuts in FY27 revenue growth expectations for these companies. “With a softer start to the year, the ask rate for FY27 gets tougher, as the usual 1H strength is unlikely to play out this time,” said the brokerage’s analysts in a client note.

JPMorgan has cut April-June revenue growth assumptions for all companies on the back of delays in deal closures and revenue conversion. “Accenture’s print and guidance confirms that weakness is not only in 1Q27, but also likely to bleed into 2QFY27,” the note said.

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JPMorgan said growth acceleration is unlikely even for mid-cap firms over the medium term.


“Until we see AI inflation becoming a tailwind, we would prefer to be cautious on the pace of growth recovery, as well as structural growth for the industry.”

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The $1 Trillion Meltdown. Chip Stocks Lead a Steep Nasdaq Decline.

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Stocks Little Changed After Fed Decision

A steep tech stock selloff may wipe out more than $1 trillion in market value from the Nasdaq 100.

Nasdaq 100 futures were down 3% on Tuesday. The Nasdaq 100’s market cap was roughly $41.27 trillion on Monday. The decline in futures indicated a loss of more than $1 trillion in market cap, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Chip stocks were sinking, joining in yesterday’s slide in Big Tech. The iShares Semiconductor ETF was down 6.4%. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF was down 0.9%.

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