Independent grocers are facing mounting pressure from national retailers, with the head of the National Grocers Association warning that weak competition could eventually leave Americans with only a handful of major grocery chains.

Greg Ferrara, president and CEO of the National Grocers Association, told FOX Business that independent stores are fighting to maintain access to products and competitive terms in an increasingly consolidated industry.

He warned that America was approaching an “inflection point.”

“Independent grocers want to make sure they’re going to be around for the next generation. They’re going to be around for their Main Street and their communities and all the organizations they support there,” Ferrara said. “But they’re not going to be here, quite frankly, if they aren’t able to compete.”

DOJ EXPANDS BEEF PRICE INVESTIGATION TO WALMART, COSTCO, AMAZON AND OTHER MAJOR RETAILERS

Ferrara argued that greater competition in the grocery industry could help drive down prices and give consumers more choices. (iStock / iStock)

“If we don’t have free markets, we don’t have open markets, if we don’t allow the best entrepreneur out there to win and serve their customers, we’re gonna wake up one day in this country and we’re gonna have just five or six national chains that are gonna be serving most of our customers,” Ferrara said.

“I think at the end of the day, that’s bad for America, that is bad for the communities that we serve, and it’s bad for consumers,” he continued.

Ferrara said independent grocers sometimes struggle to obtain the same products, promotions and purchasing terms available to the largest national retailers. For example, he said new products can be offered exclusively to a large chain for a period of time, leaving local competitors unable to sell something their customers want.

“Consumers want those products and they want to be able to buy them at their local stores, but they can’t,” he said. “So they’re now being boxed out and forced to go to one national chain that often has it.”

THE FAST-FOOD CHAIN WHERE MANAGERS AVERAGE MORE THAN $200K A YEAR

National Grocers Association President and CEO Greg Ferrara warned that independent grocers are facing mounting competitive pressure from major national retailers. (FOX Business / Fox News)

Ferrara stressed that independent grocers aren’t seeking favoritism: “They’re not asking for special treatment. They’re not asking for a leg up. All they’re saying is give me a chance to compete.”

According to NGA, independents represent more than 38% of total supermarket spending. Ferrara argued they can purchase products efficiently and at scale.

“They buy in truckloads and they buy efficiently,” he said. “They just need the access to those products and to those items to be able to be successful.”

Ferrara said independent grocers operate on net profit margins of less than 2%, leaving little room to absorb additional costs or competitive disadvantages.

BUILT FROM SCRATCH BY IMMIGRANT PARENTS, THIS NYC GROCERY STORE NOW FACES MAMDANI’S TAXPAYER-BACKED RIVAL

Independent grocers are seeking greater access to products and competitive terms as they battle larger national retailers, according to the National Grocers Association. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images / Getty Images)

“When you’re effectively having one arm tied behind your back because you can’t get access to the products that the consumer wants or the package size that they want, that’s a challenge,” he said.

He said some NGA members believe the situation in certain product categories is “worse than ever.”

The Justice Department recently expanded its beef affordability investigation to include eight major grocery retailers — Kroger, Publix, Walmart, Albertsons, Aldi, Ahold Delhaize, Costco and Amazon — after previously opening an antitrust investigation into major meatpackers.

DOJ is examining retail beef prices, margins, purchasing arrangements and other factors influencing prices, FOX Business previously reported.

Ferrara said he did not want to prejudge DOJ’s investigation but argued that greater competition would benefit consumers.

COSTCO RAISES PRICE OF KIRKLAND MOTOR OIL AND LIMITS HOW MUCH SHOPPERS CAN BUY

Independent grocers can sometimes be “boxed out” of selling products offered exclusively to major national chains, Ferrara told FOX Business. (Will Newton/Getty Images / Getty Images)

“We believe the more competition there is in the marketplace, that will ultimately benefit consumers, that will drive prices down,” he said. “It gives consumers choice and it gives our retailers the ability to serve and support local ranchers and farmers.”

“Ultimately, the DOJ needs to run their course,” Ferrara said. “I won’t weigh in on that.”

Beef prices remain high, Ferrara acknowledged, but he said independent grocers are seeing consumers adjust rather than abandon beef altogether.

“The price definitely may cause consumers to pull back a little bit,” he said. “Instead of buying a roast, they’re going to buy a smaller cut… or ground versus a steak, and they’re gonna trade down.”

To counter the potential sticker shock, Ferrara said independent stores might run stronger promotions on ground beef or offer smaller packages so shoppers don’t face as high a total price at checkout.

GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE

Looking ahead, Ferrara said he remains optimistic about the future of independent grocers.

“I think we’re gonna see a future that corrects course because ultimately that’s what consumers want,” he said. “We want to make sure that we’re taking the steps today to ensure that these businesses will be successful tomorrow.”

UBS sees scope for a re-rating as the unsecured lending cycle revives. It also expects asset quality to remain robust.

With a revised target price of Rs 1,110, UBS analysts forecast an upside potential of 9% in Bajaj Finance, while a hiked target price of Rs 380 implies an upside of about 25% from current market levels. In Wednesday’s session, Bajaj Finance rose 3% to Rs 1,025, while LT Finance was up 3% to Rs 313.

“We upgrade our rating on Bajaj Finance from Sell to Neutral, as we expect cyclical EPS upgrades on yield-accretive growth and strong asset quality, though its valuation remains demanding,” UBS said in a note. “We also upgrade our rating on L&T Finance from Neutral to Buy, expecting faster personal loan growth and ROA improvement toward 3%,” it added.

UBS on Bajaj Finance shares

“We believe BAF has cleared its asset quality issues across unsecured products, while an increased provision coverage ratio acts as a cushion against macro headwinds,” UBS analysts said in a note.

Live Events

This could provide a cyclical push toward higher-yielding loan growth in the near term, driving cyclical earnings acceleration. The company’s EPS downgrades have largely passed and foresee strong EPS growth of 30%+ in FY27, although it may slow to the high teens in FY28.

UBS on LT Finance

UBS said LT Finance has been on a path of improving return on assets (ROA) over the past few quarters. It noted that growth in higher-yielding segments such as personal loans and gold loans has remained strong, while microfinance (MFI) growth is recovering after weakness driven by asset quality. This has resulted in a significant shift in the loan mix towards higher-yielding segments.The brokerage also said credit costs have been gradually declining, supported by a benign asset quality cycle, while operating expenses have provided additional support. Overall, UBS factors in around 25 basis points of improvement in opex to AUM, around 15 basis points in credit costs and the remainder from margins, resulting in its assumption of a 50-basis-point improvement in ROA over FY26-28.

UBS on India financials

India entering into strong credit cycle – UBS expects India to enter a strong unsecured credit growth cycle, led by personal loans. The brokerage said this is supported by healthy asset quality across banks and NBFCs, flat unsecured household leverage over the past three years, ample system liquidity and a more risk-on approach among lenders.

UBS added that stabilising gold prices could moderate gold loan growth, which has been a key substitute for personal loans in recent years. This could benefit private banks and large NBFCs with strong personal loan franchises.

Rate hike largely priced in – The brokerage believes the market is underestimating the expected recovery in personal loan growth, which could lead to earnings upgrades and expansion in return on assets (ROA) for select lenders. It said concerns over higher interest rates appear overstated given the significant liquidity surplus in the system, which could keep funding conditions supportive. With most NBFCs trading below their one-year average valuations, the brokerage sees scope for a re-rating as personal loan growth recovers.

The brokerage expects around Rs 12-13 trillion of FCNR inflows to create excess liquidity, as system credit demand of around Rs 45-50 trillion is unlikely to absorb the entire pool in the near term, with domestic savings flows remaining stable. It said this could support NBFC funding through bank lines and NCD markets, keeping funding conditions favourable. The brokerage factors in a 15-20 basis point rise in FY27 funding costs, leaving limited downside risk from rate hikes.

Healthier credit cycle ahead – It said that following a three-year credit cycle, asset quality across these segments is now at its best levels in several quarters, although NBFCs continue to see some residual stress in low-ticket business loans.

Also read:70% IPOs in September gave a listing bounty for investors. Can NSE beat its weak GMP?

According to UBS, unsecured leverage in India increased from 6% of GDP in FY19 to 10% in FY24, but has remained stable since then. In contrast, gold loans grew from around 1% of GDP to around 5% by FY26, although growth is expected to moderate as gold prices flatten.

Alongside the improvement in asset quality across unsecured lending segments, CRIF data for August 2026 showed personal loan growth accelerating to around 30% for NBFCs and 9% for banks, marking a two-year high.

The brokerage maintained its Buy rating on Cholamandalam Investment, Shriram Finance and Poonawalla Fincorp. Among banks, it expects ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Axis Bank to benefit from a pick-up in personal loan growth.

Disclaimer: This article has been written by Veer Sharma, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Veer Sharma and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.

MANILA — The Australian Government has launched a flagship 45 million AUD economic development initiative in the Philippines, committing substantial grant funding to accelerate the growth of renewable energy, facilitate carbon market development, and advance the domestic offshore wind industry over a five-year period.

The initiative, officially designated as the Promoting Growth, Resilience, Economic Stability and Sustainability in the Philippines (PROGRESS) program, runs from 2026 through 2031. Formally unveiled during official proceedings in Manila, the bi-national strategy represents a milestone in expanding economic cooperation between Canberra and Manila, targeting structural reforms, ease of doing business improvements, and sustainable infrastructure investments across the archipelago.

Strategic Framework and Scope of the PROGRESS Program

The PROGRESS framework operates as a co-designed economic platform created to support priority development sectors identified directly by Philippine national agencies. Rather than functioning as an immediate single disbursement, the total funding package—equivalent to approximately 2 billion Philippine pesos—will be deployed incrementally across specific projects as scoping assessments conclude and joint government approvals are finalized.

To guide project selection and ensure rigorous economic viability, Australia has appointed Boston Consulting Group to partner directly with Philippine government departments. The consulting firm will assist in structuring targeted intervention plans, defining policy reform benchmarks, and administering capital allocation across clean energy, infrastructure, and digital economy initiatives.

“This is a program that has been developed jointly by the Australian government and the Philippine government to deliver better economic outcomes to boost infrastructure and to improve living standards in communities throughout the Philippines,” stated Australian Assistant Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Matt Thistlethwaite during a press briefing in Manila. “We are very much in the scoping phase and working with the various Philippine government departments to identify where the priorities are and ensuring that the projects stack up and they make solid economic sense.”

Pioneering Offshore Wind and Carbon Market Infrastructure

A primary focus of the five-year grant centers on modernizing the Philippine energy grid and establishing regulatory infrastructure to support zero-emission power generation. With the Philippines possessing extensive untapped offshore wind capacity along its coastlines, technical assistance and capital deployment under the PROGRESS initiative aim to streamline project permitting, enhance grid integration, and attract private sector investment into marine wind farms.

Simultaneously, the program addresses the development of a formal national carbon market. By building robust verification frameworks and transparent trading mechanisms, the joint initiative seeks to enable local industries to generate and trade accredited carbon credits, establishing new capital streams for conservation and industrial decarbonization projects throughout Southeast Asia.

Beyond energy sector investments, the grant framework incorporates mandatory social inclusion baselines. Program guidelines require that funded initiatives actively incorporate women, persons with disabilities, and marginalized rural communities into project supply chains, ensuring that economic benefits from green transition projects are distributed equitably.

Deepening Bilateral Ties and Southeast Asian Stability

The launch of the PROGRESS initiative aligns with Australia’s broader foreign policy strategy to bolster economic resilience, energy security, and supply chain diversification across partner nations in the Indo-Pacific region. As Southeast Asian economies navigate accelerating power demand alongside decarbonization mandates, bilateral development programs offer essential technical and financial backing.

Philippine government officials welcomed the multi-year commitment, emphasizing that targeted support for renewable energy infrastructure directly reinforces national energy security objectives while mitigating vulnerability to global fossil fuel price volatility. Joint announcements detailing the first round of approved individual projects under the PROGRESS funding pool are expected in the coming months following completion of initial scoping reviews.

Core Objectives of the Bilateral PROGRESS Initiative

• Establishing structured regulatory and market frameworks to support commercial offshore wind developments and formal carbon credit trading platforms across the Philippines.
• Providing technical expertise and capital deployment through Boston Consulting Group to assist Philippine government agencies in identifying high-impact infrastructure projects.
• Mandating inclusive growth guidelines that guarantee equal participation and economic opportunities for women, persons with disabilities, and marginalized communities throughout program execution.

Long-Term Economic and Environmental Outlook

The five-year rollout of the PROGRESS program marks a decisive transition toward structured, sustainable economic collaboration between Australia and the Philippines. By providing targeted seed funding and technical oversight rather than generic budgetary aid, the partnership aims to crowd in private capital for commercial-scale clean energy projects.

As project allocations are finalized and bilateral working groups commence implementation, success will be measured by concrete improvements in regional power grid stability, increased foreign direct investment in renewable infrastructure, and the successful establishment of transparent market mechanisms. The collaborative framework stands as a practical model for international climate finance and regional economic integration across the Asia-Pacific area.

Sensex gained over 350 points to rise above 74,896 while Nifty rose over 104 points to trade above 23,433, as seen at 11.15 am. Broader markets outperformed benchmarks, with Nifty Midcap 100 rising 0.4% and Nifty Smallcap 100 jumping 0.7%.

Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv shares were the top gainers on Sensex, as the Bajaj twins gained around 2% each. UltraTech Cement, Tata Steel, Asian Paints, L&T, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Hindustan Unilever and ITC shares gained around 1% each. Bucking the trend, Infosys and TCS shares fell around 1%.

Among the sectors, Nifty Metal jumped more than 1%, while Nifty IT slipped into the red. The overall market sentiment turned positive, with NSE seeing 2,332 advances against 714 declines, while 109 stocks remained unchanged.

Also read | Voltas share price: Nuvama upgrades rating but Jefferies cuts target price after analyst meet. Here’s why

Live Events

What can drive a sharp rally on Dalal Street?

The structure of the market in recent days has been technically weak with a downward bias, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments. He noted that if this market construct is to change, there should be some significant triggers. A sharp dip in crude prices can provide that trigger. But that is not happening even though Brent crude has dipped below $99. Another positive trigger can come from a dip in US bond yields. But that is unlikely in the present macro scenario of high inflation, particularly in the developed countries, the analyst noted. In brief, these two factors – high crude prices and elevated bond yields- will constrain a rally in the market, he said.
Domestic liquidity is supporting the broader market, with market activity now focused on the broader market, Vijayakumar pointed out. Good growth and better growth prospects are attracting investment into many mid-and small-caps. But valuations in these segments are getting stretched. “This trend has created a dichotomy in valuations- attractively valued large-caps coexisting with highly valued mid-and small-caps. Experience tells us that reversion to the mean is inevitable, but its timing is hard to predict,” the analyst said.

Technical view on Nifty

On the higher side, 23,600-23,650 will act as major resistance for Nifty as this zone is the last week high and the recent breakdown area, said Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President-Research, Bajaj Broking. The index needs to sustain a higher high and higher low formation and reclaim 23,650 to signal a pause in the ongoing downtrend, he added.

On the downside, a breach below the previous week’s low of 23,115 will resume the corrective phase towards the 23,000 and 22,800 levels, according to the technical analyst.

Also read | Tata Group stocks see sharp swings as boardroom battle intensifies, but analysts say avoid the noise

Disclaimer: This article has been written by Debaroti Adhikary, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Debaroti Adhikary and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.

The most dramatic and tragic natural phenomenon Spain has seen in recent years were flash floods that killed 237 people in the east of the country in October 2024, centred on the Valencia region.

Spanish meteorological research group Climatoc-Lab described it as “a manifestation of how global warming alters the hydrological cycle”.

The Valencia Chamber of Commerce estimated that the floods caused €4.5bn in direct damage. Thousands of businesses were affected, some literally washed away by the floodwater, while others were able to resume operations after a lengthy recovery.

“It was a disaster, both in terms of the lives lost and the impact on businesses, on workers, employers and ordinary people,” says Laura Llácer Álvarez, manager of the Fepeval federation of industrial parks in the Valencia region.

Spain’s geographical position, along with its climate and topography, make it unusually vulnerable as global temperatures increase. Germanwatch, an independent environmental organisation, ranked Spain the world’s 20th most affected country in its climate risk index for 2024, just behind Nigeria and Mali.

Yet there are those who see an upside for the economy.

“Climate change affects how we produce, how we invest and how we consume,” says Julián Cubero, head of economics of climate change at economic think tank BBVA Research. He points to how heat can act as a drag on economic activity.

“We all work worse when it’s hot,” he says. However, he adds, a greener economy can create new jobs with greater productivity.

“The key is to realise that if we don’t act, growth will slow down, and if it’s handled right it can become an opportunity,” he says.