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Copper prices have been highly volatile in recent months, reflecting both structural demand growth and short-term geopolitical influences. On the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper surged to an all-time high of $14,500 per metric tonne in early February 2026 before correcting sharply by mid-March. Yet, prices have since recuperated, consolidating in the $12,700–$13,000 range. A similar trend has been observed in India, where MCX copper is currently trading near Rs 1,300 per kg, underscoring the global bullish sentiment.

Key drivers of the rally

Several factors are driving this price action. The boom in artificial intelligence infrastructure, particularly hyperscale data centres, has created unprecedented demand for copper in power distribution and cooling systems. The global push toward electrification and renewable energy integration has intensified the need for copper in grid modernisation projects. Supply constraints are also playing a role, with declining ore grades and disruptions at major mines tightening availability. Geopolitical tensions, including trade tariffs and defence procurement, have added further volatility to the market. Additionally, speculative buying by investors anticipating long-term shortages has amplified the rally, while currency fluctuations—especially a weaker U.S. dollar—have made copper more attractive to international buyers.

Supply-demand imbalances

The current supply-demand scenario points to a deficit, with global refined copper shortfalls estimated at 330,000–400,000 tonnes in 2026. Smelting bottlenecks, particularly in China, have capped refined output, while regional imbalances have led to acute shortages and price premiums in certain markets. Recycling has provided some relief, but the secondary supply remains insufficient to bridge the gap. Moreover, delays in new mining projects due to environmental clearances and financing challenges have worsened the imbalance. However, unless significant investment flows into exploration and production, the deficit could widen further in the coming years.

Geopolitical pressures on copper

Geopolitical factors are amplifying these pressures. Elevated defence spending has increased copper demand for weapons systems and vehicles, while U.S. tariffs and stockpiling programs have removed large volumes from the open market. Ongoing tensions in West Asia have sustained military-driven demand, though the easing of conflicts could reduce defence consumption while stabilising supply chains. Sanctions on certain producing nations have also disrupted trade flows, while logistical bottlenecks in shipping lanes have added to costs. The broader geopolitical climate has made copper not just an industrial commodity but also a strategic resource, with governments increasingly treating it as critical to national security.

China’s central role and global industrial demand

China remains pivotal to copper’s outlook, with smelter production caps limiting supply even as demand surges from renewable energy expansion, electric vehicles, and Belt and Road infrastructure projects. Strategic reserve policies, including stockpiling and releases, further sway global sentiment. Beyond China, industrial demand is equally strong. AI data centres are projected to consume nearly 475,000 tonnes in 2026, while electrification and grid modernisation in Western nations sustain elevated usage. Electric vehicles require up to four times more copper than conventional cars, amplifying automotive demand. Renewable energy projects, particularly wind and solar farms, add significant copper intensity, while construction in emerging economies and smart city initiatives ensure that industrial consumption remains robust worldwide.

Impact of West Asian tensions easing

If West Asian tensions ease, copper demand linked to defence procurement may decline, but this would likely be offset by improved supply chain stability and stronger industrial consumption. Peace in the region could reduce shipping risks and lower insurance costs, making the copper trade smoother and cheaper. It may also encourage investment in infrastructure and energy projects, which would sustain demand from civilian sectors. Thus, while military demand may soften, industrial and developmental demand could rise, keeping overall consumption elevated.

Outlook remains positive for the long term

Copper’s trajectory carries significant macroeconomic weight, as rising prices elevate input costs across manufacturing, housing, automotive, and technology sectors, ultimately feeding into global inflationary pressures and challenging monetary policy. Emerging markets, where copper is vital for infrastructure, face added fiscal strain as budgets stretch and projects risk delay. In the near term, prices are expected to consolidate around $12,700–$13,000, with volatility shaped by geopolitical developments and speculative trading. However, the long-term outlook remains structurally bullish. Demand from AI infrastructure, electric vehicles, renewable energy, and global electrification initiatives is poised to sustain elevated prices. Despite inevitable corrections, copper has cemented its role as the decade’s most critical industrial metal.

(The author is Head of Commodity Research, Geojit Investments Limited)

The week ended with some serious selling from the Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) who offloaded domestic equities worth Rs 17,140 crore over the five sessions that ended Friday. The foreign outflows in April so far have swelled to Rs 43,967 crore, extending the 2026 exodus to a whopping Rs 1,75,089 crore.

On Friday, FIIs sold domestic shares to the tune of Rs 8,827.87 crore while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers at Rs 4,700.71 crore.

The massive selling ensured domestic frontline indices ended with sharp cuts. The biggest spoilsport was IT, which fell over 5% at the index level. Pharma, health and energy socks were other big losers. While the 50-stock Nifty fell 275.10 points or 1.14% to finish at 23,897.95, Sensex declined 999.79 points or 1.29% to settle at 76,664.21.

FIIs continue to offload Indian equities with the month-to-date selling trend continuing for the 10th consecutive months, said Bajaj Broking in a note as geo-politics dominate institutional flows. Going ahead, the institutional activity is expected to be driven mainly by global news flows, with developments in US–Iran negotiations remaining a key monitorable, a brokerage note said.

“US FOMC and Bank of Japan rate decisions followed by central bank commentary are also scheduled for next week which will also have an impact on the global equity market and institutional activity,” it added.

The rate setting committee of the US Federal Reserve will meet on April 28 & 29 to mull on the policy moves in light of the ongoing US-Iran war. The policy outcomes will be declared on Wednesday, April 29.
FIIs have remained net sellers in Indian markets despite improving global cues, with over $45 billion pulled out since September 2024 and another $5 billion sold in April 2026 alone, even as flows moved to markets like Korea and Taiwan, N. ArunaGiri, CEO, TrustLine Holdings said, adding the divergence highlights India’s reduced appeal in global allocation strategies, as its MSCI weight has dropped sharply.“FIIs are predominantly large-cap, top-down investors,” and their participation hinges on clear sectoral leadership—something currently lacking with IT facing derating and private banks showing muted growth, ArunaGiri explained.

He adds that “in the absence of a clear index driver, India’s relative attractiveness diminishes,” especially in a market expected to remain sideways and stock-specific, which typically favours domestic investors over global flows. From an FII standpoint, a meaningful return will likely depend on two key triggers – “a clear earnings acceleration cycle” and “supportive currency trends” – he added.

FIIs in 2026

War-induced sell-off in March made it the worst month this year, witnessing an exodus worth Rs 1,17,775 crore. Foreign investors turned net buyers in February, buying shares worth Rs 22,615 crore in the domestic markets so far. In January, they sold Rs 35,962 crore worth of shares.

In 2025, the FIIs buying trends remained patchy, but the overall trend was bearish. They took Rs 1,66,286 crore from Indian markets as trade deal delay and premium valuations weighed on the sentiments.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

Bitcoin and Ethereum traded near the $78,000 mark and the $2,300 level respectively, with both assets consolidating after seeing a strong rebound. The cryptocurrencies traded at $77,550 and $2,316 mark respectively.

In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin saw a marginal decline of 0.3% whereas Ethereum was up 0.25%. Among the major altcoins, XRP, BNB, Solana, Dogecoin, Hyperliquid, and Cardano gained upto 1.5% whereas Tron slipped 1.3%.

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The global crypto market capitalisation edged down 0.08% to $2.59 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange said Bitcoin remains on track for its strongest monthly performance in a year, even as short-term momentum cools. Adding to this, Bitcoin dominance has climbed to 60.6% in late April, after ranging between 58–60% through Q1 2026, highlighting continued capital concentration into Bitcoin.

Sehgal further said that technically, Bitcoin maintains a higher high-higher low structure on the 4-hour chart, holding above key demand zones, indicating underlying strength if support sustains. Ethereum, however, is relatively weaker, trading in a tighter range with short-term lower highs, reflecting cautious sentiment.
In the past week, Bitcoin was up 0.5% and Ethereum slipped 4%. Among the major altcoins, XRP, BNB, Solana, Dogecoin, Hyperliquid, Tron and Cardano fell up to 8.8%.
WazirX Market’s Desk said Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,825, consolidating near recent highs after a strong upward move earlier in the week. Ethereum is hovering near $2,300, remaining sensitive to broader risk conditions.
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“On the macro front, tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, have pushed oil prices above $100, raising fresh inflation concerns. Alongside uncertainty about US monetary policy and developments in Federal Reserve leadership, traditional markets have faced pressure, while crypto has held relatively steady. This divergence continues to support Bitcoin’s positioning as an alternative macro asset.”

Overall, Bitcoin’s dominance remains elevated at 58–60%, reinforcing that capital remains concentrated in major assets amid ongoing macro and regulatory uncertainty, said WazirX Market’s Desk.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Q1: 2026-04-23 Earnings Summary

EPS of $0.75 beats by $0.44

 | Revenue of $9.69B (2.46% Y/Y) beats by $972.25M

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