Business
Trump Threatens to ‘Complete the Job’ in Iran as US and Iran Trade Strikes Near the Strait of Hormuz
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump threatened Saturday that Iran would “no longer exist” if the United States is forced to resume full-scale war with the Islamic Republic, after American forces carried out fresh strikes on Iranian military targets in retaliation for a drone attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.
The exchange marked the latest and most serious test yet of a fragile ceasefire that has repeatedly come under strain since the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding earlier this month aimed at ending months of war and reopening one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes.
Trump’s warning on Truth Social
Trump confirmed the U.S. strikes in a post on Truth Social, framing them as a response to repeated Iranian violations of the ceasefire. “United States aircraft just struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations, and coastal radar sites, for violating the Cease Fire Agreement, AGAIN!” Trump wrote.
He went further, issuing one of his starkest threats yet against the Iranian government. “There may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started,” Trump wrote. “If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist!”
What prompted the latest strikes
U.S. Central Command said the operation was launched in direct response to an Iranian drone attack on the Panama-flagged oil tanker Kiku, which was carrying roughly two million barrels of crude oil through the strait. According to CENTCOM, the strikes targeted “surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air defense sites, drone storage facilities, and minelayer capabilities,” hitting a total of 10 Iranian military targets at multiple locations in and near the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media reported several explosions in the Sirik and Qeshm areas of southern Iran following the strikes.
Saturday’s operation followed a similar round of U.S. strikes carried out Friday in response to an earlier Iranian drone attack on a separate vessel, the Ever Lovely, a Singapore-flagged cargo ship. Trump had described that earlier Iranian strike as a “foolish violation” of the ceasefire, writing on Truth Social that one of the drones “solidly hit the upper deck of a large and very expensive Cargo Carrying Ship,” though the vessel was able to continue on its way after U.S. forces shot down three additional drones.
Iran’s retaliation in Kuwait and Bahrain
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded to Saturday’s American strikes by launching what it described as joint missile and drone attacks against U.S. military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain. The IRGC said in a statement carried by Iran’s Press TV that the U.S. strikes amounted to a violation of “Clause 1 of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding” and warned that continued violations “will result in the complete halt of all diplomatic processes.”
The IRGC claimed it had “destroyed eight important US military facilities at the Ali al-Salem base in Kuwait and at the Fifth Fleet naval base in Port Salman in Bahrain,” and warned that any further American action would be met with a “crushing response.” The statement added, “Any enemy aggression, whatever the pretext, even against insignificant targets… will have a crushing response.”
Kuwait’s military said its air defenses were “engaging hostile missile and drone attacks” following the IRGC’s claims. In Bahrain, which hosts a major U.S. naval base, the interior ministry activated air raid sirens and urged residents to “remain calm and head to the nearest safe place.”
A U.S. official speaking on condition of anonymity told Reuters there were no reported U.S. casualties or major damage to American facilities in the Middle East in the immediate aftermath of the Iranian attacks.
A pattern of escalation despite the ceasefire
Saturday’s clashes are the latest in a string of incidents that have repeatedly tested the truce reached between Washington and Tehran. Vice President JD Vance, who traveled to Switzerland the previous weekend for talks with Iranian counterparts, wrote on social media Friday that “Iran signed a ceasefire agreement. We have honored it,” adding, “If they have disagreements about how the MOU is being applied, they can pick up the phone. But violence will be met with violence.”
Iranian officials have pushed back on characterizations that their actions in the strait constitute ceasefire violations. Ebrahim Azizi, who heads the Iranian parliament’s national security commission, wrote on social media that “the Strait of Hormuz is governed by Iran, so: Respect the rules,” adding, “This is not a violation of the ceasefire; it is ceasefire management.”
Ongoing disputes over the strait
The renewed violence underscores unresolved disagreements between the U.S. and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that in peacetime carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas exports. Iran imposed a blockade on the strait after the United States and Israel launched a bombing campaign against the country on February 28, an operation aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
Shipping traffic through the strait has increased since Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed their memorandum of understanding earlier this month, but it remains well below prewar levels. Iran has continued to insist that vessels seek its permission before transiting the strait and use routes closer to its coastline, while the U.S. has encouraged ships to instead use a route closer to Oman. Under the terms of the memorandum, the two countries have 60 days to work out remaining details, including arrangements for shipping traffic and the future of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
Israel, which is not a party to the U.S.-Iran agreement, has criticized the memorandum for not securing a concrete commitment from Iran on its nuclear program.
Markets and Iran’s economy
Despite the latest flare-up, oil prices fell sharply Saturday on hopes that shipping traffic through the strait would continue recovering. The economic toll on Iran, meanwhile, continues to mount. The country’s official statistics agency reported Saturday that year-on-year inflation had climbed to 88.6%, up sharply from 68% in February, when the war with the U.S. and Israel first began.
With both sides continuing to trade strikes even as negotiators work behind closed doors on the terms of a lasting peace agreement, the durability of the ceasefire remains in serious doubt. Trump and Iranian officials have increasingly conducted much of their negotiating in public, trading threats and disputed claims of concessions, even as mediators continue working to prevent the fragile truce from collapsing entirely into renewed full-scale conflict.
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Markets Got Its Final Warnings
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That dynamic is now facing a reset. On June 17, NSE filed its listing papers with market regulator Sebi, and is targeting a listing before January 30 next year. Early estimates put the issue size at close to Rs 30,000 crore, based on NSE’s unlisted valuation of Rs 5 lakh crore. BSE’s market capitalisation at Thursday close was Rs 1.58 lakh crore.
NSE shares will list exclusively on BSE, since under Indian securities law an exchange cannot list on its own platform—a regulatory symmetry that will hand BSE one of its most consequential listings.
Exchange vs Exchange
On its part, BSE has framed the development as a positive rather than a threat to its own valuation. “Listing of any eligible institution is a positive development for India’s capital markets,” said managing director Sundararaman Ramamurthy. “Valuations and stock prices are outcomes of a company’s growth prospects and execution, and are best left to the market.”
NSE commands 88% of cash-market turnover, 91% of equity futures and options, and 89% of interest-rate futures. In currency derivatives, its share is 74% in futures and effectively 100% in options. Globally, NSE ranks first in equity derivatives contracts traded—with a 51% share—and third in the number of cash-equity trades.
Yet the listing papers also discloses a rare stumble. Total operational revenue declined 3% year-on-year to Rs 16,601 crore in FY26, from Rs 17,141 crore in FY25. Profit fell 16% to Rs 10,302 crore, from Rs 12,188 crore in FY25. The exchange attributed the decline to lower transaction charges, softer trading activity, and the impact of Sebi’s tightening of the futures and options segment—the very regulations that have reshaped the derivatives landscape across both exchanges.
That creates an unusual valuation setup. NSE is cited at 38x to 43x FY26 price-to-earnings on IPO price band assumptions of Rs 1,600 to Rs 1,800 per share, compared with BSE trading at 69x FY26 earnings.In other words, the dominant exchange may come to market at a significant discount to its smaller rival—at least on near-term multiples—partly because it is bearing the brunt of the same regulatory changes BSE has so far navigated better.
Two Sides
Investors are divided on the new equilibrium. As Investor Vijay Kedia says, “Scarcity premium may reduce once NSE gets listed because investors will get an opportunity to own the larger exchange as well, but BSE does not lose its importance.”
Pankaj Murarka, CIO at Renaissance Investment Managers, takes a longer view. Exchanges typically command rich valuations due to their oligopolistic structure and high entry barriers, he argues, and both NSE and BSE can sustain strong multiples—though NSE is likely to command a premium given its dominant market share. BSE’s trajectory, he said, will depend on whether it can meaningfully gain share in options, futures and cash equities, and expand into new product segments.
A listing of NSE—valued at Rs 5 lakh crore—exclusively on BSE could itself prove a fillip. “It may result in enhanced liquidity, business and participation by institutional investors at BSE,” said Parmod Kumar Bindlish, a former Sebi official.
BSE’s Revival
The debate arrives at a moment of transformation for BSE. When Ramamurthy took over as MD in January 2023, the exchange reported FY2022 revenue of Rs 928 crore, profit of Rs 254 crore, and a market cap of Rs 5,742 crore. By FY2026, revenue had risen to Rs 5,226 crore—up 41% CAGR—and profit to Rs 2,497 crore, an increase of 58% CAGR.
The markets have taken note, with valuation surging more than 20-fold since he took charge.
Ramamurthy attributed the turnaround to “innovation, product development and execution”—reviving the equity derivatives business, acquiring a 50% stake from S&P Dow Jones Indices in the index venture, upgrading mutual fund platforms to handle surging volumes, and stepping up investments in technology and member connectivity.
“When we started, both systems and the culture were somewhat archaic and lacked vibrancy,” he said. BSE filled long-standing vacancies, brought in a fresh set of C-suite leaders and hired younger professionals. Some of the changes were basic but necessary, he added, noting that even employee facilities such as a proper cafeteria needed attention.
The strategy in derivatives, he added, was not driven by market share targets but by “the voice of the customer.”
On Sebi tightening options trading, he said investor protection and market development “must go hand in hand,” and that markets “naturally adapt to evolving regulations over time.” Derivatives trading revenues more than doubled to Rs 3,134 crore in FY26, with daily average premium volume rising 118% to Rs 19,522 crore.
Kedia believes NSE’s listing will prompt investors to compare the two exchanges more closely. “The exchange that grows faster and creates more value for shareholders is likely to command a higher multiple,” he said.
Murarka offered perhaps the most durable framing: “Markets can go up or down, but in casino parlance, the house never loses. Exchanges are the house.”
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