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UK borrowing costs near 30-year high ahead of budget

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UK borrowing costs near 30-year high ahead of budget

The government is paying more to borrow through newly issued debt than at almost any point in the past three decades, a reminder of the tough fiscal backdrop against which prime minister Andy Burnham and chancellor John Healey are drawing up their first budget, now less than two months away.

The average yield on UK government bonds, or gilts, sold to investors so far this year is 3.8 per cent, according to analysis of figures published by the Debt Management Office, the body responsible for selling the government’s debt. That is not far short of levels last seen in 1998, when the average yield on newly issued debt exceeded 4 per cent.

Yields have held close to that near three-decade high for the past two years, the product of stubborn inflation, investor unease about persistently high public borrowing across the rich world, and hundreds of billions of pounds worth of gilt sales by the Bank of England as it unwinds the bond holdings built up under quantitative easing.

The rising cost of compensating the investors who buy that debt has heaped fresh pressure on the public finances. The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that debt interest spending will exceed £100 billion a year, the equivalent of the defence and Home Office budgets combined, until at least the 2030s.

Public borrowing has already overshot official forecasts this financial year, and economists have warned the pair that the headroom against the government’s main fiscal rule, which requires day-to-day spending to be funded by tax revenues, may have more than halved from £23.7 billion because of rising gilt yields and the higher energy prices that have followed the outbreak of war in the Middle East six months ago.

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That likely erosion has fuelled speculation about tax rises or spending cuts at the budget on 28 October. Burnham said last week that he would not be “unrealistic” about the “challenging” state of the public finances, and refused to rule out tax increases.

Oil, inflation and the Bank

Britain has lived with persistently high inflation since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which forced the Bank of England to lift interest rates to a peak of 5.25 per cent. Bank Rate has since fallen to 3.75 per cent.

Markets began the year expecting several rate cuts in 2026. That calculation changed in February, when the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran. The conflict has left the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed for more than six months, sending oil and gas prices spiralling and keeping central banks cautious, and investors now think one or two rate rises could come before the end of the year.

James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, said: “This year it’s been all about oil. For all the talk about Burnham and what he means for the bond market, government borrowing costs have been driven almost singularly by energy prices and their perceived impact on the Bank of England.”

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Tomasz Wieladek, chief European macro strategist at T Rowe Price, said: “The UK’s fiscal fundamentals aren’t bad relative to other countries. But the big difference is poor inflation performance. That is the true reason why gilt yields are higher than in other countries, as investors now require inflation compensation.”

Longer-dated debt has borne the brunt of investor nerves about the appetite of governments in rich economies to rein in borrowing, with 30-year bond yields touching multi-decade highs in August. Britain, however, remains on course to bring down its deficit at the fastest pace in the G7 in the coming years under plans set out by Healey’s predecessor, Rachel Reeves, and some analysts expect gilt yields to fall back before the budget.

The Treasury said: “The OBR will publish its updated forecast alongside the budget in October and we will not comment on rumour, speculation or proposals about its contents ahead of then.”


Amy Ingham

Amy Ingham

Amy Ingham is a reporter at Business Matters, covering UK business news with a focus on breaking news, business policy, late payments and insolvency. She joined the magazine in 2026 after completing the NCTJ Diploma in Journalism at Harlow College’s journalism school. Her recent reporting includes British Steel’s nationalisation and its impact on SME suppliers, the decline in late payments by large firms, and Insolvency Service director disqualifications. Reach her at aingham@cbmeg.co.uk.

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PG&E, Edison Head for Biggest Stock Drop in Years on California Wildfire Legislation

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David Uberti hedcut

California utility PG&E shares tumbled 19%, on pace for their biggest drop since the Covid-19 selloff of March 2020.

Other California-based utility stocks also sank, including Edison International. Its shares are down 20%, on pace for their biggest loss in more than 25 years.

Newsom and California lawmakers have clashed this month over updates to the state’s wildfire response. The administration initially proposed blocking insurance companies from suing utilities over wildfire claims—a move proponents argue is necessary to prevent higher electricity bills for California residents and to prevent utilities from facing bankruptcy.

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Unrefined Foods introduces frozen muffins

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Unrefined Foods introduces frozen muffins

BOSTON — Unrefined Foods is adding to its portfolio of frozen foods with a line of frozen breakfast muffins.

The organic muffins are formulated with stone-milled whole grains and are sweetened with maple syrup. The muffins are available in banana bread, cinnamon swirl and loaded blueberry varieties.

“We created Unrefined Foods to eliminate a trade-off parents shouldn’t have to make,” said Melissa Bermudez, co-founder of Unrefined Foods. “Convenience shouldn’t require compromise. Busy families need packaged foods that are quicky and easy to eat on the go; they just deserve packaged foods made from healthy, wholesome ingredients they’d actually choose themselves.”

The breakfast line may be purchased at select retailers across New England and online through the company’s website.

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Upstart: Massive Short Squeeze Potential

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Noah Holdings Stock: Deep Value With Structural Transformation (NYSE:NOAH)

Upstart: Massive Short Squeeze Potential

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Dollar General: Excellent Company, Limited Upside At This Price (NYSE:DG)

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Dollar General: Excellent Company, Limited Upside At This Price (NYSE:DG)

This article was written by

Redfern Research looks for value. We are not limited to one sector or area of expertise, although we prefer to evaluate according to simple metrics: Can the business be understood and not be too complex? Is there a reason it is trading at a significant discount? Will the company generate reasonable demand for its stock in the short or medium term? Most of the reading, notes, and theses are rough notes. Writing them down and sharing them allows for further analysis and scrutiny.We do not trade often but prefer to look for medium-term value where equities are depressed for a particular reason or have somehow fallen out of favor. These are also the most interesting cases to read about or dissect. They offer a really good risk-reward profile and often offer the best entry at discounted prices.We have a basic familiarity with finance but tend to shy away from complex modeling of future cash flows. We know our way around financial statements but prefer to focus on a mix of qualitative and quantitative analysis to make a decision. Please use articles and writing with caution and fulfill gaps in your knowledge or research from a multitude of sources. The writing is only meant to present one angle and opinion, but the individual investor’s due diligence remains supreme.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Fuel supplier sues distributor for nearly $4M over gas allegedly sold at Trump-promoted Freedom Fuel stations

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Fuel supplier sues distributor for nearly $4M over gas allegedly sold at Trump-promoted Freedom Fuel stations

A fuel supplier is suing a New Jersey distributor and its president, alleging they failed to pay for gasoline that was later sold through stations in the Trump-promoted Freedom Fuel Network.

Mansfield Oil Company filed the lawsuit against KRSM Inc. and its president, Syed Kazmi, on Aug. 19 in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania. Mansfield alleges KRSM obtained approximately 150 loads of fuel from its account at the Twin Oaks terminal in Pennsylvania between May 21 and July 7, totaling roughly 1,124,594 gallons worth $3,998,868.46. 

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“KRSM sold a portion of such fuel to its stations that are part of the Freedom Fuel Network,” Mansfield alleges in the complaint. The company further claims KRSM was able to sell some of the fuel at low prices because it had not paid Mansfield for it. Those allegations have not been adjudicated. 

KRSM had been a Mansfield customer since 2022. A commercial credit application included with the complaint and signed by Kazmi states that if Mansfield extended credit and KRSM purchased fuel, KRSM would be responsible for paying for it. The agreement called for payment by electronic funds transfer within 10 days of receiving an invoice. 

VENEZUELA SAYS TRUMP’S HISTORIC OIL DEAL TARGETS 1.5M BARRELS PER DAY, COULD GENERATE $200B

freedom fuel network

A fuel truck arrives to refuel a Freedom Fuel Network gas station on Aug. 10, 2026, in West Berlin, New Jersey. (Al Drago/Getty Images)

Mansfield acknowledged in the complaint that a data-receiving error delayed its ability to send the invoices until early July. The company said it later discussed what it characterized as minor pricing discrepancies with Kazmi, revised the invoices and sent them to KRSM on July 17. Mansfield alleges its bank subsequently advised it that KRSM had refused attempted drafts from its account. 

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KRSM disputes Mansfield’s account of the payment dispute.

Kazmi said in an Aug. 25 court declaration that he “did not agree that the amounts Mansfield demanded were correct or owing.” In court filings, KRSM contends the dispute centers on the prices Mansfield charged for the fuel and says it objected to the invoices before the lawsuit was filed.

On Aug. 28, U.S. District Judge Gerald Austin McHugh vacated an earlier temporary restraining order that had frozen the identified M&T Bank account but granted Mansfield’s requests for preliminary injunctions in part. McHugh ordered the defendants to maintain at least $2.75 million in the account while the litigation proceeds.

The Freedom Fuel Network drew national attention after lowering pump prices amid President Donald Trump’s push for cheaper gasoline.

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The White House published a Freedom Fuel Network video on July 7 promoting the network’s lower prices.

Donald Trump in Oval Office

President Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Aug. 27, 2026. (Al Drago/The Washington Post/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Freedom Fuel says on its website that it is a privately owned company that “answered President Trump’s call to action to lower prices at the pump.”

“We didn’t hesitate; we took decisive action and lowered our prices to make filling up more affordable for hardworking families across the greater Philadelphia area,” the company says on its website.

Freedom Fuel also says 25 participating stations experienced an average volume increase of more than 50% after prices were lowered, with several locations increasing more than 100%. Those figures are company-reported and have not been independently verified.

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A man uses a gas pump at a Shell gas station in Houston, Texas, on March 16, 2026. (Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images)

Mansfield’s lawsuit brings claims including breach of contract, unjust enrichment, action for the price, account stated and conversion. The company is seeking at least $3.998 million, plus interest, costs and other damages. 

CLICK HERE TO GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO

Fox Business reached out to attorneys for KRSM and Kazmi, Freedom Fuel Network and counsel for Mansfield Oil for comment.

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Why Plus500 Leads Mobile CFD Trading

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One of the best CFD Trading Apps in Australia 2026:

Australian retail traders seeking a user-friendly mobile platform for contracts for difference have a clear frontrunner in 2026, according to independent platform testing. Plus500, operated locally by Plus500AU Pty Ltd under Australian Securities and Investments Commission licence AFSL 417727, ranks as the best overall trading app for its tap-to-trade design, one-tap guaranteed stop-loss orders and rapid onboarding process. Sources: (FXEmpire, Investing.com, compareforexbrokers.com.au, Investing in the Web Plus500 Review 2026

Independent evaluations of ASIC-regulated apps conducted through mid-2026 consistently place Plus500 highly for overall mobile experience. Testers scored the app highly across criteria including order placement speed, ease of account setup, biometric login options and parity between the mobile version and the full web platform. Onboarding typically requires only an email to access a free unlimited demo account. The app supports Face ID, Touch ID and fingerprint authentication, and delivers the complete feature set available on desktop across more than 2,800 CFD instruments. Sources: (FXEmpire, Investing.com, compareforexbrokers.com.au)

Visit Plus500 (CFD service. Your capital is at risk)

Plus500 offers CFDs on shares, indices, forex, commodities, ETFs, options and cryptocurrencies. Pricing is commission-free, with costs embedded in the spread. Typical spreads reported in recent testing include around 0.8 pips on EUR/USD, 1.0 pips on GBP/USD and 0.9 pips on AUD/USD, though these fluctuate with market conditions. The minimum deposit stands at A$200, with fee-free Australian funding options that include PayID, BPAY, cards and PayPal. Retail leverage remains capped under ASIC’s Product Intervention Order, and negative balance protection applies so clients cannot lose more than the funds deposited.

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Client money is held in segregated trust accounts with Australian banks in accordance with the Corporations Act. Plus500AU does not use client funds for hedging or its own business purposes. The parent company, Plus500 Ltd, is listed on the London Stock Exchange as a FTSE 250 constituent, providing an additional layer of public financial reporting and governance transparency. The firm is also an AFCA member for dispute resolution.

The app’s risk-management tools stand out for casual and intermediate users. Guaranteed stop-loss orders can be set with a single tap and are priced via a wider spread at the time the position is opened. Trailing stops, price alerts and push notifications during Australian market hours further support position management on the go. Charting includes more than 100 indicators and drawing tools, though it remains more basic than the 115-plus indicator suites offered by some competitors.

While Plus500 leads for user-friendliness and mobile usability, other ASIC-regulated apps serve different needs. Pepperstone’s cTrader platform appeals to active forex and CFD traders seeking tighter raw spreads and depth-of-market data. CMC Markets’ Next Generation app provides desktop-grade charting and a broader instrument range that includes ASX share trading alongside CFDs. eToro remains popular for social and copy-trading features, while Interactive Brokers offers deeper multi-market access for more experienced users. Independent shortlists from 2026 testing routinely list these platforms immediately after Plus500 for specialised use cases.

Visit Plus500 (CFD service. Your capital is at risk)

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CFD trading carries significant risk. ASIC and brokers themselves note that a substantial majority of retail CFD accounts lose money. Leverage amplifies both gains and losses, and positions can be closed automatically if margin requirements are not met. Prospective users are advised to review the Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination, practise extensively on the free demo account, and trade only capital they can afford to lose. Educational resources on the platform cover basic concepts, though more advanced research and technical analysis tools are limited compared with some rivals.

Market conditions in 2026 continue to favour mobile-first platforms as smartphone trading volume grows. Australian regulators maintain strict oversight of CFD providers, enforcing segregated funds, negative balance protection and leverage limits that apply equally on mobile and desktop. Plus500 has operated under its current ASIC licence since 2012 and maintains compliance with these rules.

For traders who prioritise a clean interface, fast execution on a limited number of weekly trades, and built-in risk controls without the complexity of MetaTrader or advanced multi-platform setups, recent independent assessments identify Plus500 as a leading CFD trading platform available in Australia. Those seeking the absolute tightest spreads, extensive automation or real share ownership under CHESS sponsorship may find better fits elsewhere. As always, individual circumstances, risk tolerance and trading style should guide the final selection after careful comparison of fees, features and regulatory protections. Sources: (FXEmpire, Investing.com, compareforexbrokers.com.au)

The competitive landscape remains dynamic, with brokers continually refining mobile interfaces and funding options. Yet for the combination of accessibility, regulatory standing and practical risk tools that define everyday mobile CFD trading in Australia this year, Plus500 currently sets the benchmark.

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Snack, beverage shoppers turning to AI agents

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Snack, beverage shoppers turning to AI agents

NEW YORK — As artificial intelligence (AI) quickly gains traction with consumers, many are entrusting AI agents to shop for snacks and beverages, according to the latest Consumer Pulse Research from Accenture.

As part of Accenture’s “Talk to My AI Agent” study that surveyed 25,000 global consumers, the 2026 Consumer Pulse Research sampled 1,518 snack and drink (non-alcoholic) respondents in 16 countries. Of those, 80% said they’re open to collaboration with an AI agent that would work with the consumer to find the best option. 

But these snack and beverage consumers are willing to go even further with AI agents, Accenture found. Sixty-eight percent indicated they would allow task execution, in which AI handles specific commerce tasks at the consumer’s request. Also, 30% are open to delegated decision-making – in which AI chooses what to buy, with the consumer making the payment – and 8% would permit autonomous purchasing that lets the AI agent make the transaction independently, with guardrails set by the consumer.

“AI agents are becoming the go-to discovery model for many consumers, helping them find snacks and drinks that better match the healthier, more budget-conscious or higher-quality version of themselves they aspire to be,” said Kath Gramling, global consumer goods, retail and travel lead for global business consultancy Accenture. “As we saw in our research, 63% of snacks and drinks consumers would now instruct an AI agent to shop for their ‘idealized self,’ showing a clear shift in how everyday purchases are discovered, chosen and consumed.”

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Consumers’ trust in AI agents has advanced, in part, as they’ve turned to these tools to help reduce decision-making complexity, Accenture noted. Fifty percent of weekly AI users said they trust agents’ recommendations for snacks and drinks – in fact, 74% reported they would trust an AI agent more than their best friend to make a purchase, the research revealed. When instructing an AI agent on which snacks and drinks brands to buy, 45% of those surveyed prioritized value, while 37% put quality at the top of the list. 

Similarly, 31% of snack and beverage consumers said generative AI lowers decision stress during their shopping journeys. Snacks and drinks consumers with high decision stress are 1.3 times as likely (85% versus 64%) to be open to an AI-powered personal shopper.

“Consumers are rethinking what they want (and expect) from snacks and beverages,” Gramling said. “It is no longer just about satisfying a craving. As wellness trends and GLP-1 adoption reshapes eating and drinking habits, many shoppers are looking for products that support specific goals, whether that’s a protein bar that helps them feel fuller or a beverage that delivers energy or gut health benefits.”

ai2.jpg

“For snack and beverage brands, this raises the stakes at the moment a consumer is deciding what to put in their cart.” — Kath Gramling, Accenture

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| Photo: ©MAKSYM YEMELYANOV – STOCK.ADOBE.COM

For snacks and drinks recommendations, gen AI has become one of the fastest-growing sources, according to the study. Forty-eight percent of the snack and beverage respondents identified as weekly users of gen AI – 1.9 times more than in 2025 – and almost two-thirds of active users said gen AI makes them feel “seen, heard and understood.” Large language models (LLMs), a form of gen AI, are the No. 2 snacks and drinks discovery channel for weekly AI users, Accenture said.

“For snack and beverage brands, this raises the stakes at the moment a consumer is deciding what to put in their cart,” Gramling noted. “AI agents are introducing shoppers to new products, reducing decision stress by more than 30% and even steering consumers away from long-term favorites if another option better matches their goals. While 58% of consumers would tell an AI agent which brands to consider when purchasing snacks and drinks, 36% of behaviorally loyal consumers would allow an agent to switch from a favorite brand for a better fit.”

Other key findings from Accenture’s full global AI study include the following:

• 61% of respondents want an AI agent that shops multiple grocery retailers on their behalf, splitting their baskets.

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• 71% of those polled expect gen AI to influence at least half of their spending decisions over the next 12 months.

• 87% of consumers agree that AI will impact the role of physical stores, with 31% expecting stores to become more important for experiences.

“As loyalty becomes more conditional,” Gramling said, “the brands coming out ahead are making claims, ingredients and quality easier to verify, compare and recommend, while still protecting the human side of snacking (taste, emotion, identity) that consumers aren’t willing to delegate.”

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Smucker looks to keep Uncrustables growth rolling

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Smucker looks to keep Uncrustables growth rolling

MINNEAPOLIS — Vibrant growth for Uncrustables has The J.M. Smucker Co. working to ramp up the momentum, including by bolstering production, marketing and innovation for the handheld PB&J sandwich brand.

Double-digit growth for Uncrustables fueled a 3% net sales gain in the fiscal 2027 first quarter for J.M. Smucker’s US Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads business, which also saw profit climb 13% year over year. The Minneapolis-based food company said a 10% increase in volume/mix for Uncrustables lifted the division’s performance, and the Away From Home segment also benefited from rising Uncrustables volume.

“Beginning with Uncrustables, the brand delivered 12% net sales growth at the total company level, driven by a double-digit increase in volume/mix,” Mark Smucker, chairman and chief executive officer, said in reporting first-quarter results. “The brand achieved record quarterly volume, net sales and household penetration, reflecting the strength of our proven brand-building model, continued distribution gains and consumer-led innovation.”

J.M. Smucker has prioritized Uncrustables as one of its key growth platforms. In fiscal 2026, Uncrustables surpassed annual sales of $1 billion.

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“Momentum for the Uncrustables brand remains strong, and with household penetration of 27%, we continue to see significant runway ahead,” Smucker said. “To support this growth, we are accelerating our plans to bring the second phase of our McCalla, Ala., facility online toward the end of this fiscal year.”

Manufacturing, innovation boost

J.M. Smucker opened a 900,000-square-foot manufacturing plant for Uncrustables in McCalla back in November 2024, which freed the brand from previous production capacity constraints. Then, this past January, the company said it’s investing $27 million in the McCalla facility to fortify production and operations.

Growth for Uncrustables has been driven in part by J.M. Smucker’s stepped-up innovation efforts for the brand. In September 2024, the company launched the first new flavor for Uncrustables in 10 years (peanut butter and raspberry spread), which was followed in May 2025 by the brand’s first-ever limited-edition flavor (peanut butter and mixed berry spread) and in October 2025 by the rollout of higher-protein Uncrustables sandwiches.

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Earlier this year, Smucker said at an investor conference that Uncrustables would be expanding from the freezer to the fridge with the launch of sandwiches with a five-day refrigerated shelf life. The product, which can be stored in the freezer for a longer lifespan, made its debut in July.

“Our newest innovation, fridge-friendly Uncrustables sandwiches, is resonating with consumers, and we are beginning to support the launch with a robust marketing campaign across social, influencer and digital channels,” Smucker said. “We are also building on the strong momentum of our morning protein platform with the recent launch of two new flavors, Beamin’ Berry Blend and Burstin’ Blueberry. These varieties are driving incremental growth and further expanding the Uncrustables brand’s presence in the morning occasion.”

Growth story

Uncrustables’ ongoing growth factored into J.M. Smucker’s raised top-line guidance for fiscal 2027, to net sales decreases of 1% to 2% from the previous projection of down 3% to 4%, said Tucker Marshall, chief financial officer and executive vice president of Frozen Handheld and Spreads and Sweet Baked Snacks.

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“In US Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, we now expect net sales to increase low-single digits compared to the prior year, driven by the strength and momentum of the Uncrustables brand,” he said.

Uncrustables Fridge-Friendly_refrigerator.jpg

“Fridge-friendly” Uncrustables can be stored in and eaten straight from the refrigerator for up to five days.

| Photo: J.M. Smucker Co.

In an Aug. 26 conference call with analysts on first-quarter results, Marshall said J.M. Smucker is reinvesting a portion of its tariff refunds in the Uncrustables plant in McCalla.

“As we think about the business, we continue to support growth,” he said. “We now expect high-single-digit growth for the Uncrustables brand, total company, total venture. And as we move forward, we’ll continue to support the portfolio with ongoing marketing investments and also ensuring that we continue to bring production along as we support demand. As you can see or you may have read, we are increasing preproduction expenses for the year in support of the McCalla, Ala., facility. And so, the margin profile may take a slight step back in our next few quarters, but the profile continues to remain strong.”

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When asked what was behind Uncrustables’ strong growth, Smucker said, “I would sum it up this way: All the fundamentals are right.”

 “We’ve got new marketing, the launch of fridge-friendly,” he explained. “You can keep the Uncrustables stored in your fridge for five days — so instant consumption, if you will. Price-pack architecture is right. So, just competitively, I think we’re in the sweet spot there. The breadth of our offerings, whether that’s new flavors — some are limited-time offerings — and hitting on dayparts with the higher-protein offerings as well. Just the combination of all of those things has also led to stronger distribution gains. And our Away From Home business is performing well, still building out our c-store presence with the larger chain customers. So I would just say it’s a tale of just doing all of those important things right.”

Marshall said Uncrustables “continues to be a great story” for J.M. Smucker.

“It’s going to demonstrate another year of growth,” he said. “It continues to demonstrate growth in traditional US retail channels and also in the away-from-home channel. We’re also bringing along innovation. We’re supporting brand-building, and we are increasing capacity in support of ongoing demand.” 

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(VIDEO) Gulf Disturbance Invest 97L Could Become Tropical Storm Edouard Before Reaching Texas Coast

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Gulf Disturbance Invest 97L Could Become Tropical Storm Edouard Before

MIAMI — The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas of potential tropical development in the Atlantic basin, with a disturbance in the northern Gulf carrying increasingly high odds of strengthening into a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm before reaching the Texas or Louisiana coast as soon as Monday night.

The system, designated Invest 97L, was located roughly 100 to 125 miles south of the southeastern Louisiana coast as of Monday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center. As of the agency’s latest advisory, the disturbance carried a 70% chance of development over both the next 48 hours and the next seven days, an increase from the 30% to 50% odds forecasters had assigned the system over the weekend as it became better organized. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, commonly known as a hurricane hunter, was scheduled to investigate the low-pressure area Monday morning to gather more detailed data on its structure.

Forecasters say the disturbance is expected to drift slowly west-northwest across the northern Gulf before potentially strengthening into a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm as it approaches the upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coast late Monday or early Tuesday. If the system’s maximum sustained winds reach 39 mph, it would be named Tropical Storm Edouard, the fifth named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The National Hurricane Center has said tropical storm watches or warnings could be issued for portions of the Gulf Coast later Monday as the system continues to organize.

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Regardless of whether the disturbance officially strengthens into a named storm, forecasters say its primary threat will be heavy rainfall rather than strong winds. The National Hurricane Center said the system is expected to bring locally heavy rain to portions of the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts over the coming days, with rainfall totals of up to 2 inches expected in some areas and higher localized amounts possible. Southern Louisiana has been placed under a marginal risk for heavy rainfall, raising the potential for flash flooding, particularly given recent dry conditions in the region. Forecasters covering the Houston area have said the system could bring an uptick in showers and storms by Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves inland, with the potential for rainfall totals to climb further depending on how the system tracks once it makes landfall.

Separately, the National Hurricane Center is also tracking the remnants of former Tropical Storm Dolly, which are producing showers and thunderstorms stretching from Hispaniola eastward to the northern Leeward Islands. That system is moving west to west-northwest at roughly 20 to 25 mph, and forecasters say strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent redevelopment over the next couple of days. The National Hurricane Center has given Dolly’s remnants a near-zero chance of redevelopment over the next 48 hours and just a 20% chance over the next seven days. Even without redeveloping into a formal tropical system, forecasters say the moisture associated with Dolly’s remnants could reinforce an already wet pattern across South Florida later this week as the disturbance approaches the southern Bahamas or the Florida Straits. Should either the Gulf system or Dolly’s remnants develop into a named storm, the next name after Edouard on this year’s Atlantic storm list would be Fay.

The Atlantic hurricane season is now moving into its historical peak period, which arrives around Sept. 10 and spans the stretch from mid-August through mid-October, when ocean temperatures are typically at their warmest and atmospheric conditions are often more conducive to tropical development. So far this season, the Atlantic has produced four named storms, Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly, but no hurricanes. By comparison, the climatological average season has typically produced its sixth named storm and first hurricane, generally forming around Aug. 11, by this point on the calendar, putting the 2026 season somewhat behind its typical pace in both named storm activity and hurricane formation.

Forecasters have cautioned that a slower-than-average start to the season does not determine how active the remainder of it will be. With the Atlantic entering its peak window for tropical activity, meteorologists say conditions can shift quickly, and it takes only one significant landfalling storm to make a season consequential regardless of how quiet its earlier months may have been. Residents along the Gulf Coast, particularly in southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana, are being urged to monitor forecast updates closely in the coming days as Invest 97L continues its approach toward the coastline.

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Lessons in entrepreneurship

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Lessons in entrepreneurship

OPINION: Recent research provides insight into the benefits, or otherwise, of startup incubator or accelerator programs.

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