It has largely met market forecasts
The UK economy expanded modestly in May after solid performance across parts of the services sector helped cushion the blow from the Iran conflict and narrowly averted a downturn.
New data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has shown the economy grew 0.1 per cent in May, largely meeting market forecasts.
The services sector – which accounts for more than 80 per cent of total economic output – expanded 0.3 per cent despite sharp declines elsewhere in the economy.
Manufacturing fell 0.8 per cent and production dropped 0.5 per cent.
“While all three main sectors grew over the three months (to May), the slight growth in GDP in May was driven by services alone, with production and construction both falling back,” Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said,
She added the activity in services came from computer programming and advertising, while the “often-volatile pharmaceutical industry also performed well.”
Science and technology activity rose 1.8 per cent, largely propelled by a 5.1 per cent surge in research and development on the back of medical sciences. The ONS said this sector alone contributed 0.06 percentage points to real GDP growth, as reported by City AM.
Scott Gardner, investment strategist at JP Morgan Personal Investing, said while the latest figures were encouraging, the “broader picture still points to a fragile economy” as elevated energy costs take their toll.
“The services sector continues to do most of the heavy lifting, helping to keep the economy steady,” he added.
“With momentum still proving difficult to sustain and the situation in Iran remaining uncertain, this reading highlights the economic challenge facing the next Prime Minister. They will inherit a difficult hand as inflation remains above-target and the Iran conflict continues to dampen growth.”
The figures follow the economy recording a 0.1 per cent slip in April, which came after a robust first quarter comprising growth of 0.3 per cent in March and 0.4 per cent in February.
However, the eruption of hostilities in Iran at the end of February sent shockwaves through global economies and stoked inflationary pressures, as oil prices rocketed to highs of $120 per barrel.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said that it was “not a war we wanted or joined, but one that will have an impact at home”.
The latest data will rank among the final entries on Reeves’ scorecard before she is expected to be moved on from the Treasury as Andy Burnham takes the keys to No. 10.
The Chancellor used her Mansion House address this week as a last-stitch effort to defend her record on growth and the UK’s public finances.
She issued a stark warning to her successor that “radical governments without credibility have ultimately failed to win the trust necessary to deliver their agenda”.
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband had been widely regarded as the leading contender to replace Reeves, however briefings from his detractors suggest he has slipped down the pecking order.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has since emerged as the preferred candidate for No. 11.
Whoever takes the reins at the Treasury will face an enormous strain on the public finances, after the OECD forecast this week that economic growth would stagnate at 0.9 per cent for the year.
The leading independent economics body also cautioned that government debt is projected to exceed 105.4 per cent of GDP by 2027 — a figure that could balloon to 200 per cent by 2050 in the “absence of policy changes and considering ageing costs and climate damage”.
Economists put forward a package of reforms which, if successfully enacted, the OECD said could boost GDP by as much as four per cent within a decade.
Central to these recommendations is the “essential” consolidation of taxes, which the organisation noted were sitting at “historically high levels”.














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