Bitcoin spent the past week oscillating between two realities: on-chain and fund flow signals leaned toward accumulation, while broader sentiment indicators continued to reflect caution. The split is important for traders because it suggests markets are absorbing sell pressure without fully giving way—but it also raises the question of whether the move is durable or merely a pause before the next risk event.

On July 15, data from Hyblock indicated a $925 million net buying day for Bitcoin, supported by spot and futures cumulative volume delta—an order-flow metric that tracks the balance of buy versus sell activity. The same day also brought spot Bitcoin ETF inflows of $107.7 million, extending a short rebound after $181 million of net inflows on July 14.

Key takeaways

• Hyblock’s spot and futures cumulative volume delta showed a $925 million net buying day on July 15, helping absorb the post-CPI dip in both price and open interest.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $107.7 million in net inflows on July 15, following a positive $181 million day on July 14.
• Funding rates cooled from the prior week’s 0.10%–0.22% range down to 0.048%, aligning with leverage unwinding rather than a fresh surge in risk-taking.
• The Fear & Greed Index remains around 26 (“Fear”) even after Bitcoin rebounded about 4.4% from its roughly $62,100 low, suggesting sentiment hasn’t caught up to flows.
• Despite improving microstructure signals, longer-term positioning signals still look mixed: ETF flows remain negative for the year and a cluster of long liquidations sits about 1.5% below the current price (around $63,200).

Order flow and ETF inflows point to steadier demand

The most concrete improvement came from trading activity rather than price alone. According to Hyblock, the $925 million net buying day on July 15 reflected order flow that “absorbed” the post-CPI pullback instead of letting it cascade into heavier selling. Notably, the data suggests that the pullback in open interest and price did not translate into a sharp shift toward net liquidation behavior—an important distinction for how markets interpret volatility.

The ETF side added confirmation. On July 15, spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively recorded $107.7 million in net inflows, which marked the second consecutive day of positive demand. That continuation follows $181 million in net inflows on July 14, indicating the recent uptick isn’t just a one-day anomaly.

Funding rates cool—suggesting deleveraging, not a late long squeeze

While spot and ETF flows improved, the derivatives market looked more like a “reset” than a breakout. Funding rates spent much of the week between 0.10% and 0.22% before falling sharply to 0.048%. At the same time, open interest declined by 3.4% from Tuesday’s peak.

Those two details matter because they often differentiate between two scenarios: (1) new leverage piling in, which can fuel trending moves, versus (2) existing leverage being reduced, which can stabilize price after a volatility event. In this case, Bitcoin was down only about 1.5% over the same stretch—so the combination of lower funding and falling open interest points to longs stepping back rather than capitulating into a meaningful downside trend.

The article’s implied interpretation is that traders are adjusting their exposure after Bitcoin reached local range highs near $65,000 to $66,000. If that’s correct, it frames the recent price action as consolidation: leverage comes off, but demand signals don’t fully disappear.

Sentiment remains in “Fear” despite a bounce

Even with improving flow-based indicators, broader sentiment has not fully turned. The Fear & Greed Index is reported near 26, still in “Fear,” despite Bitcoin bouncing roughly 4.4% off its recent low near $62,100. For some market participants, this mismatch between depressed sentiment and positive demand can be a favorable setup—particularly if flows hold while fear fails to convert into selling.

However, there is an alternate interpretation that keeps the caution justified: risk-off drivers may simply be present in the background. When macro headlines remain unresolved, sentiment can stay muted even while technical and liquidity conditions briefly improve.

Macro risk and positioning signals keep the picture uneven

The week’s fundamental backdrop included renewed geopolitical and rates-related pressure, according to the article’s summary: the US war in Iran resumed, oil prices moved above $85, and projections for a Fed rate hike by September 2026 stayed above 44%. Those ingredients can limit how confidently traders chase upside, even when crypto-specific inflows improve.

More importantly for market mechanics, the article notes that the improving signals do not amount to a confirmed trend change. Several positioning markers remain mixed:

• Funding is cooling toward neutral, but that often reflects reduced leverage rather than outright bullish acceleration.
• Spot ETF flows are still negative for the year, meaning the recent daily inflow streak is not yet a full reversal in broader institutional demand.
• A cluster of long liquidations sits roughly 1.5% below the current price, around $63,200. That kind of liquidation “gravity” can add volatility if price drifts lower, even when net order flow is relatively supportive.

Taken together, these details describe a market that may be stabilizing, but not one that has clearly escaped the risk environment. The key tension is that microstructure (order flow and ETF inflows) improved while sentiment and some longer-horizon positioning indicators have not.

For the days ahead, readers should watch whether ETF inflows can continue and whether funding remains near-neutral rather than re-accelerating—those signals would help confirm whether the current stabilization is building momentum or just reflecting a temporary deleveraging phase. At the same time, the nearby long liquidation level around $63,200 remains a specific area where volatility could reappear if macro pressure intensifies or the rebound loses traction.

Trump Media & Technology Group has unveiled a paid data service that will deliver real-time posts from Truth Social’s highest-ranking accounts to financial firms and news organizations.

According to Trump Media, the Truth API will provide licensed access to public posts that may carry time-sensitive political, policy, or market information. The company plans to offer the feed to trading firms, financial data providers, media outlets, and other businesses that monitor influential accounts.

Subscribers will receive what Trump Media described as “immediate, verified access” to posts published on the platform. Interim CEO Kevin McGurn presented the API as a licensed alternative to unauthorized data scraping, which companies often use to collect posts from social networks.

“Markets already move on Truth Social posts,” McGurn said.

Trump Media expects the service to generate recurring revenue outside its advertising and subscription businesses. Other social media companies already charge data providers and institutional clients for API access, which trading desks can use to monitor sentiment, policy announcements, and events affecting stocks, currencies, commodities, or digital assets.

Trump’s posts give the feed market value

President Donald Trump’s account had 12.9 million followers as of Thursday morning, making it the largest account on Truth Social. Trump regularly uses the platform to announce or discuss tariffs, foreign policy, government decisions, and other matters watched by financial markets.

Although Trump Media did not name the president in its API announcement, his posts remain among the platform’s most closely followed content. Financial firms and newsrooms monitor presidential statements because announcements involving trade or government policy can affect asset prices.

Trump’s family also remains financially connected to the company. SEC filings show that about 114 million Trump Media shares issued to the president were later moved into a revocable trust controlled by Donald Trump Jr. after Trump won the presidency.

Trump Media trades on Nasdaq under the ticker DJT. By licensing rapid access to posts from its most prominent accounts, the company is seeking to turn Truth Social’s role in political communication into a commercial data product.

Paid access raises conflict concerns

The service has also attracted criticism over the president’s connection to both Truth Social and Trump Media. According to CNBC, Democracy Defenders Fund ethics attorney Virginia Canter called the arrangement “a huge conflict of interest.”

Canter argued that Trump has a public duty to distribute presidential information widely, while the API gives paying customers faster access through a company tied to his family’s holdings. She also described Truth Social as the “de facto presidential press room.”

Questions about Trump’s platform activity had emerged before the API announcement. A CNN investigation reported that Trump promoted more than 20 companies on Truth Social after investments linked to those businesses appeared in his financial disclosures. The White House denied that the activity created conflicts of interest.

Trump’s 2025 financial disclosure also reported about $1.4 billion in crypto-related earnings, adding to scrutiny of his family’s business interests while his administration shapes digital asset policy. By selling licensed access to presidential posts, Trump Media is now placing those communications inside a data market already used by financial firms to identify trading signals.

Morgan Stanley’s E*TRADE platform has launched spot cryptocurrency trading, allowing eligible clients to buy, sell and hold Bitcoin, Ether and Solana through a partnership with crypto infrastructure provider Zero Hash.

Clients can view their crypto holdings alongside stocks and other traditional investments on the E*TRADE platform, while transfer functionality for moving digital assets on and off the platform is expected later this year.

The self-directed channel served 8.6 million households and held about $1.56 trillion in client assets as of March 31, according to Morgan Stanley’s latest financial supplement.

According to Thursday’s announcement, trades carry a 50-basis-point fee, while custody and transaction services are handled through separate Zero Hash accounts that are not covered by FDIC or SIPC protections. Morgan Stanley said it expects to transition the digital asset services to Morgan Stanley Digital Trust, its national trust bank currently in organization.

Morgan Stanley also introduced several non-crypto updates across the customer platform, including fractional share trading, a revamped retirement planning tool and new features for its Power E*TRADE Pro desktop platform.

The rollout follows a pilot launched in May, when the company began testing the service with a limited group of users before expanding access to eligible E*TRADE clients.

Related: Stanford study says 5-minute Bitcoin prediction markets enable settlement manipulation

Morgan Stanley broadens crypto strategy

Beyond retail spot trading, Morgan Stanley has expanded its digital asset business into stablecoin reserve services and crypto exchange-traded funds this year.

In April, the Wall Street giant launched a stablecoin reserve offering that allows issuers to hold the assets backing their tokens in one of the firm’s money market funds while earning interest.

The same month, the company launched its spot Bitcoin ETF with a 0.14% management fee, making it the lowest-cost Bitcoin ETF on the US market at the time. The fund debuted on NYSE Arca as the first spot Bitcoin ETF launched by a major US commercial bank.

During its first six trading days, the ETF attracted more than $100 million in net inflows, surpassing the cumulative inflows of WisdomTree’s spot Bitcoin ETF, which launched in January 2024. At the time of writing, the fund has attracted about $385 million in cumulative net inflows, according to SoSoValue data.

In June, Morgan Stanley amended its proposed spot Ether and Solana ETF filings to set management fees at 0.14% after first applying to list the funds in January.

Top 10 Bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValue

Magazine: Gambling on random Pokémon cards: Onchain gagcha hits record high as crypto sinks

Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest has purchased about $52.1 million of SpaceX stock, lifting its investment since the June IPO above $475 million as the shares trade below their $135 offer price.

According to Ark Invest Tracker, Ark bought the shares through its ARKK, ARKQ, ARKW, and ARKX exchange-traded funds during the week ending July 10. The purchases followed roughly $444 million of buying around SpaceX’s June 12 market debut.

Wood’s latest move came as SpaceX lost much of its early IPO gain. After opening at $150 and reaching $225.64 shortly after its listing, the stock closed at $131.11 on Thursday, according to Yahoo Finance.

At that price, SpaceX has fallen about 42% from its record and closed below the $135 IPO price for the first time. Thursday also extended the stock’s losing run to five sessions.

Ark’s buying reinforces its long-term conviction

Ark’s renewed buying indicates that Wood has treated the decline as an opportunity to expand her position. Still, the investment firm has not provided a short-term price forecast tied to its latest purchases.

The position also carries valuation and supply risks. According to Reuters, SpaceX trades at about 49 times revenue, compared with roughly 15 times for Tesla, while the company’s market value has fallen to around $1.8 trillion.

Selling pressure could increase when employee and early-investor restrictions begin expiring in August. Reuters reported that the first lockup release could make 911.5 million shares available after SpaceX publishes its initial earnings results, although unlocked shareholders would not be required to sell.

Bearish traders have already profited from the retreat. Data from Ortex Technologies, cited by Reuters, showed that short sellers had accumulated about $8.7 billion in paper gains since the IPO, with nearly 49% of the available shares on loan.

SpaceX stock remains trapped in a bearish channel

On the one-hour TradingView chart provided, SpaceX stock remains inside a descending channel that has formed through a series of lower highs and lower lows since early July. The latest candle closed near $131.07 after trading between $131.01 and $132.89.

Aroon readings on the chart show Aroon Down at 85.71%, compared with Aroon Up at 7.14%, indicating that sellers continue to control the short-term price structure. At the same time, an Average Directional Index reading of 31.22 shows that the existing trend retains notable strength.

The channel floor places immediate support around $128 to $130. Based on the chart structure, a confirmed break below that area could expose $125, while the upper channel boundary creates the first resistance zone between $133 and $135.

For a stronger recovery, the chart shows that buyers would need to reclaim the channel ceiling before challenging $140. Until such a breakout occurs, Ark’s latest purchase provides an institutional vote of confidence but does not reverse the stock’s bearish technical structure.

Bitcoin (BTC) cooled off with US stocks on Thursday as tech selling tempered gains from low inflation.

Key points:

• Bitcoin follows US stocks as they come off local highs sparked by bullish US inflation data.
• Tech sell pressure contributes to slowing momentum as retail investors take profits.
• The BTC price rebound is seen rejecting at overhead resistance.

Tech selling puts the brakes on crypto, risk-asset upside

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD circling $64,500, down 1.5% from its three-week highs seen the day prior.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

These had accompanied two straight days of lower-than-expected US inflation data, with both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) dropping in June.

While crypto and equities initially gained, tech stocks came under pressure on Thursday, with the closely-watched Micron Technologies down 15%.

“Micron is now down over -30% since its June 22nd record high,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter commented in a response on X.

Micron Technologies one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Kobeissi additionally noted profit-taking in action by retail tech-stock investors, with sales of Tesla and Apple hitting $200 million over the past two weeks.

“Meanwhile, the total retail turnover in single stocks rose to a record $370 billion, up from $220 billion at the start of 2026,” it continued. 

“Retail investors are locking in gains following a historic tech rally.”

Retail investor equity sales data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on Bitcoin speculators cashing in on the recent local highs.

“Rejection” becomes new BTC price keyword

Turning to BTC price action itself, the mood among market participants remained conservative on the day.

Related: Bitcoin $107K buyers providing ‘early signals’ of 2026 bear-market bottom: Glassnode

Commentator Exitpump flagged anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) as measured from Bitcoin’s run to $82,000 in early May, as the level to end the current rebound.

“Price is finally going to retest the AVWAP from 82K top that lead to strong local downtrend. To me such retest should cap the upside and give stronger rejection,” they told X followers.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Exitpump/X

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital argued that BTC/USD was “showing initial signs of rejection” from its 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) at $65,900.

Rekt Capital reiterated the concept of current price behavior copying the 2022 bear market, having already warned that the next macro bottom would not come until later in the year.