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United Airlines Stock Soars 9% on Oil Relief and Merger Buzz as Earnings Loom

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A United Airlines passenger jet takes off with New York City as a backdrop

CHICAGO — United Airlines Holdings Inc. shares surged nearly 10 percent in early trading Friday, extending a rebound for the airline sector as falling oil prices eased fuel-cost concerns and fresh speculation about a potential blockbuster merger with American Airlines fueled investor optimism.

At 9:50 a.m. EDT, United Airlines stock (NASDAQ: UAL) traded at $104.22, up 9.68 percent or $9.20 from Thursday’s close. The sharp move came on elevated volume as broader market sentiment improved amid reports of a fragile Middle East ceasefire that has lowered crude oil benchmarks and jet fuel expectations.

The rally marks a notable recovery for the carrier after a choppy period earlier in 2026, when rising fuel costs tied to geopolitical tensions pressured margins and sent the stock sliding as much as 17 percent in a single month. Friday’s gain pushed UAL well above recent lows near $88 and closer to its 52-week high around $119.

Analysts pointed to multiple tailwinds. Benchmark U.S. crude futures dropped sharply this week following assurances that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open to commercial shipping under the ceasefire framework. Jet fuel, which can account for 20-30 percent of an airline’s operating expenses, has eased in tandem, offering breathing room ahead of United’s first-quarter earnings next week.

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United is scheduled to report results after the market close on April 21, with a conference call set for April 22. Wall Street expects adjusted earnings per share around $1.08 to $1.15, within the company’s own guidance range of $1.00 to $1.50 for the quarter. Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance stands at $12 to $14, reflecting confidence in premium travel demand and operational improvements under the United Next transformation plan.

CEO Scott Kirby has emphasized capacity discipline across the industry, premium cabin growth and loyalty program strength as key drivers. In the fourth quarter of 2025, United posted record revenue of $15.4 billion, with premium revenue up 9 percent and loyalty sales rising 10 percent. The airline has aggressively added international routes and upgraded its fleet with more efficient, fuel-saving aircraft.

Merger speculation added rocket fuel to Friday’s move. Bloomberg reported earlier this week that Kirby has informally floated the idea of combining United with American Airlines to senior U.S. government officials. While no formal talks are underway and any deal would face intense regulatory scrutiny, investors viewed the concept as a potential catalyst for industry consolidation and cost synergies.

American Airlines shares also jumped on the report, though United’s larger network and Chicago hub give it a slight edge in any hypothetical tie-up. Analysts cautioned that antitrust hurdles would be significant, with the combined carrier controlling a massive share of domestic and transatlantic traffic. Jefferies noted that such a deal would encounter “serious regulatory headwinds” but acknowledged the long-term logic of further consolidation.

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Beyond the headlines, United’s strategic positioning has drawn bullish commentary. The airline has focused on higher-margin premium and business travel, which has proven resilient even as leisure demand fluctuates. Its MileagePlus loyalty program remains one of the industry’s strongest, generating reliable ancillary revenue.

Fleet modernization under United Next calls for hundreds of new aircraft deliveries over the coming decade, promising lower fuel burn and improved passenger experience. Newer planes also support expanded premium seating configurations that command higher fares.

Still, challenges persist. Boeing delivery delays have occasionally disrupted fleet plans, and labor costs continue to rise as union contracts are renegotiated. Earlier in March, investors worried about $4.6 billion in potential incremental fuel expenses for the year if oil prices stayed elevated.

The broader airline sector participated in Friday’s rally. Peers like Delta Air Lines and American Airlines also traded higher, reflecting shared relief on the energy front. The ceasefire has reduced fears of prolonged supply disruptions, though analysts warn the truce remains fragile and oil could rebound quickly if tensions flare again.

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United enters the earnings period with a mixed technical picture. The stock had pulled back from January highs near $118 amid fuel worries but has stabilized as oil moderated. Options trading showed increased activity in recent sessions, with some investors positioning for volatility around the April 21 report.

Wall Street’s consensus remains constructive. Most analysts rate UAL a Buy or Strong Buy, with an average 12-month price target near $130 — implying roughly 25 percent upside from current levels. TD Cowen and UBS have been particularly vocal, citing United’s premium focus and long-term margin expansion potential.

For everyday investors, the surge highlights the sector’s sensitivity to oil and macro sentiment. Airlines traditionally trade as leveraged plays on economic growth and travel recovery, with fuel costs acting as a major swing factor. Lower energy prices effectively act like a tax cut for carriers, flowing directly to the bottom line if fares hold steady.

Travel demand has held up better than many feared through early 2026. Corporate bookings have strengthened, and international routes — a key United strength — have benefited from pent-up demand in Europe and Asia. Summer booking trends appear solid, though economists caution that any slowdown in consumer spending could weigh on leisure fares.

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United has also adjusted its fare structure in recent months, introducing more tiered options and raising certain ancillary fees to offset cost pressures. These moves have drawn some customer backlash but helped protect yields.

As trading continued Friday, volume was robust, suggesting broad participation rather than isolated momentum trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average pushed toward 49,000, providing a supportive backdrop for cyclical names like airlines.

Looking ahead, investors will parse United’s quarterly update for any changes to full-year guidance, commentary on fuel hedging and updates on the Boeing relationship. Capacity growth remains a watchpoint — the industry has largely avoided the aggressive expansion that eroded profits in past cycles.

United’s balance sheet has strengthened post-pandemic, with improved liquidity and manageable debt levels. The company returned capital to shareholders through buybacks in stronger periods, though it has prioritized fleet investment recently.

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For Scott Kirby, who has led United since 2020, the current environment tests his vision of building a premium powerhouse. His earlier comments on industry consolidation reflect a belief that bigger, more efficient networks will dominate in a mature market.

Whether Friday’s surge sustains depends on next week’s earnings and any further developments on the geopolitical or merger fronts. A beat on profit expectations combined with stable fuel outlook could propel the stock higher, while any negative surprises on margins might trigger a pullback.

In the meantime, the 9-plus percent jump underscores how quickly airline fortunes can shift with oil prices and headline risk. From the depths of fuel-cost panic in March to today’s relief rally, UAL has reminded investors of its volatility — and its upside when conditions align.

Market participants will keep close tabs on crude futures in the coming days. Any extension or breakdown of the ceasefire could swing sentiment again, but for now, United Airlines and its shareholders are enjoying clearer skies and higher altitudes.

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What is Claude Mythos and what risks does it pose?

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What is Claude Mythos and what risks does it pose?

The company’s claim the AI tool can outperform humans at some hacking and cyber-security tasks has sparked fears in the financial world.

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Bath & Body Works Stock Soars 9% as Investors Cheer Turnaround Bets Amid Sales Slump

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Bath & Body Works

NEW YORK — Shares of Bath & Body Works Inc. surged more than 8% Friday, climbing to $19.64 in midday trading as Wall Street showed renewed confidence in the retailer’s efforts to revive its iconic brand through innovation and smarter pricing, even as the company braces for another year of declining sales.

Bath & Body Works
Bath & Body Works

The stock jumped $1.60, or 8.87%, by 11:48 a.m. EDT on the New York Stock Exchange, outpacing broader market moves and drawing attention from investors hunting for value in the struggling specialty retail sector. Volume was active as traders reacted to positive analyst notes highlighting progress on the company’s “Consumer First Formula.”

Bath & Body Works, known for its fragrant body care, home scents and seasonal collections, has faced headwinds from cautious consumer spending, heavy promotions and competition from value retailers. Yet recent moves — including fewer deep discounts, elevated product packaging and international expansion — appear to be sparking optimism.

“We’re expecting to get paid for our innovation,” CEO Daniel Heaf told investors during the company’s March earnings call, signaling a shift away from constant sales toward a more premium positioning without raising everyday prices.

The rally comes weeks after the company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations despite a modest sales dip. For the quarter ended Jan. 31, 2026, net sales fell 2% to $2.7 billion, but adjusted earnings per share reached $2.05, topping analyst forecasts of $1.77. Full-year 2025 sales were nearly flat at $7.29 billion.

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Investors appeared to look past the softer 2026 outlook. The company guided for full-year sales to decline 4.5% to 2.5% and adjusted EPS of $2.40 to $2.65, citing ongoing macro pressures and tariff impacts. First-quarter sales are expected to drop 6% to 4%, with adjusted EPS between 24 and 30 cents.

Still, analysts are increasingly bullish. Bank of America raised its price target to $30 from $26 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing management’s turnaround actions and a longer-term valuation framework. Wells Fargo kept an Overweight rating with a $29 target, calling the strategy “on track.” Average Wall Street targets hover in the low-to-mid $20s, with some as high as $56.

The stock has traded in a wide range this year, hitting a 52-week low near $14.28 and a high of $34.66. At current levels, the market capitalization stands around $4 billion, with a forward dividend yield above 4%.

Bath & Body Works is pushing its Consumer First Formula, a multi-year plan focused on four pillars: product innovation, brand elevation through storytelling, stronger marketplace performance and operational efficiency. The company aims to deliver $250 million in cost savings over two years, including about $175 million in 2026, to fund targeted investments while protecting margins.

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International growth remains a bright spot. The retailer ended fiscal 2025 with 573 locations outside the U.S. and expects mid- to high-single-digit sales growth abroad in 2026 through store expansion and e-commerce. Recent highlights include celebrations of its 20-year Japanese Cherry Blossom franchise and collaborations like a Mother’s Day collection with Vera Bradley featuring Peach Blossom & Nectar.

Domestically, the company is reducing promotion frequency to rebuild brand equity. “We have relied too often in the past on deeper and more frequent discounts,” Heaf said. Executives stressed that baseline prices will stay steady while new, higher-perceived-value items — with upgraded packaging and limited-edition scents — help drive full-price sales.

Gross margin pressure is expected in 2026, with the rate forecast at about 42.4% after a 150-basis-point tariff headwind in the first quarter. Adjusted SG&A is seen at 29.2%. Free cash flow is projected near $600 million, with no share repurchases assumed in guidance.

The stock’s recent volatility reflects broader retail challenges. A class-action lawsuit filed on behalf of investors who bought shares between June 2024 and November 2025 alleges misleading statements around the company’s performance, though the case remains in early stages.

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Analysts note that success hinges on execution. Citi recently took a more cautious stance, downgrading to Neutral over concerns about core business weakness and continued sales pressure. Others point to Amazon’s growing role in beauty and home categories as a risk, even as Bath & Body Works expands its own online and third-party marketplace presence.

Retail observers say the company’s focus on “getting paid for innovation” could resonate with consumers seeking affordable luxuries amid economic uncertainty. Limited-edition drops and collaborations have historically driven traffic, as seen with past PEEPS and other seasonal tie-ins.

Chief Financial Officer Eva Boratto emphasized disciplined investment. “2026 will be a year of balancing rigorous cost control with targeted reinvestment to position the business for sustainable long-term growth,” she said.

Bath & Body Works operates more than 1,800 stores in the U.S. and Canada, plus a growing international footprint. The brand built its reputation on signature scents like Japanese Cherry Blossom, now marking two decades as a bestseller.

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Investors will watch closely for first-quarter results, expected in late May. Any signs of stabilization in domestic traffic or margin improvement could fuel further gains.

For now, Friday’s surge suggests some on Wall Street are willing to bet that Heaf’s vision — fewer sales, more innovation, stronger storytelling — can help the retailer reclaim its sparkle in a crowded personal care aisle.

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Slideshow: Unwrapping chocolate novelties

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Slideshow: Unwrapping chocolate novelties

Innovations in the chocolate category are sweetening up retailers.

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Mythos AI: Finance Ministers Warn Anthropic Model Threatens Banking Security

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Mythos AI: Finance Ministers Warn Anthropic Model Threatens Banking Security

A powerful new artificial intelligence model developed by Anthropic has triggered a flurry of crisis meetings among finance ministers, central bankers and senior financiers, who fear the technology could be turned on the global financial system with devastating consequences.

The model, known as Claude Mythos, has been shown to pinpoint vulnerabilities in many of the world’s most widely used operating systems, prompting alarm at the highest levels of government and commerce. While some specialists believe it marks a step-change in AI’s ability to uncover and exploit cyber-security flaws, others have urged caution, arguing that far more independent testing is needed before its true capabilities can be judged.

Canada’s Finance Minister, François-Philippe Champagne, confirmed to media that Mythos had dominated discussions at this week’s International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington DC. “Certainly it is serious enough to warrant the attention of all the finance ministers,” he said. Drawing a comparison with geopolitical risks, he added: “The difference is that the Strait of Hormuz – we know where it is and we know how large it is… the issue that we’re facing with Anthropic is that it’s the unknown, unknown. This is requiring a lot of attention so that we have safeguards, and we have processes in place to make sure that we ensure the resiliency of our financial systems.”

Mythos is among the latest additions to Anthropic’s Claude family of models, which competes directly with OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini. It was unveiled earlier this month by developers responsible for stress-testing so-called “misaligned” AI behaviour, instances in which a model acts against human values or intended goals. Their verdict was that Mythos is “strikingly capable at computer security tasks”.

Citing concerns that the model could surface long-dormant software bugs or identify novel ways to exploit system weaknesses, Anthropic has opted not to release it publicly. Instead, access has been granted to a handful of technology giants, including Amazon Web Services, CrowdStrike, Microsoft and Nvidia, under an initiative dubbed Project Glasswing, which the company describes as an “effort to secure the world’s most critical software”.

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On Thursday, Anthropic released an upgraded version of its existing Claude Opus model, saying this would enable Mythos’s cyber capabilities to be evaluated within less powerful systems.

Not everyone in the cyber-security community is convinced the fears are proportionate, particularly given the limited independent testing conducted so far. The UK’s AI Security Institute, which has been given access to a preview version, is the only body to have published an independent assessment. Its researchers concluded that while Mythos Preview could compromise systems with weak defences, it was not dramatically more capable than its predecessor, Opus 4. “Our testing shows that Mythos Preview can exploit systems with weak security posture, and it is likely that more models with these capabilities will be developed,” the report’s authors wrote.

Sceptics have also pointed to precedent: in February 2019, OpenAI similarly delayed the release of GPT-2 on safety grounds, a decision critics at the time dismissed as a marketing device.

Senior bankers are now to be granted early access to Mythos so they can probe their own defences ahead of any wider release. C.S. Venkatakrishnan, chief executive of Barclays, told the BBC: “It’s serious enough that people have to worry. We have to understand it better, and we have to understand the vulnerabilities that are being exposed and fix them quickly.” He added that a far more interconnected financial system had created both fresh opportunities and fresh exposures, cautioning: “This is what the new world is going to be.”

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For Britain’s small and medium-sized businesses, which rely on the integrity of banking, payment and cloud infrastructure every day, the implications are considerable. A cyber incident capable of destabilising a major lender or payment processor could ripple rapidly through SME supply chains, hitting cash flow, invoicing and customer confidence within hours.

Anthropic has already flagged that Mythos has uncovered multiple vulnerabilities in core operating systems, financial platforms and web browsers. Governments and banks are being offered advance access to harden their defences before any public launch.

Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, has said that the development must be treated with the utmost seriousness. “We are having to look very carefully now what this latest AI development could mean for the risk of cyber crime,” he said. “The consequence could be that there is a development of AI, of modelling, which makes it easier to detect existing vulnerabilities in sort of core IT systems, and then obviously cyber criminals, the bad actors, could seek to exploit them.”

The US Treasury has confirmed that it has raised the matter directly with major American banks, urging them to run internal tests ahead of any public release. Industry sources further suggest that a rival US AI firm could shortly unveil a similarly potent model, but without comparable guardrails.

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For the UK technology sector, the controversy may prove an opening as much as a threat. James Wise, a partner at Balderton Capital and chair of the newly established Sovereign AI unit, a £500m government-backed venture capital fund targeting home-grown AI businesses, argued that Mythos is merely “the first of what will be many more powerful models” capable of exposing systemic weaknesses.

Speaking to the BBC’s Today programme, he said his unit was “investing in British AI companies that are tackling that, companies working in AI security and safety”, adding: “We hope the models that expose vulnerabilities are also the models which will fix them.”

For the country’s AI scale-ups and cyber-security start-ups, the message from Threadneedle Street and Washington alike is unmistakable: the defensive side of the AI arms race has just become one of the most commercially significant frontiers in British enterprise.


Paul Jones

Harvard alumni and former New York Times journalist. Editor of Business Matters for over 15 years, the UKs largest business magazine. I am also head of Capital Business Media’s automotive division working for clients such as Red Bull Racing, Honda, Aston Martin and Infiniti.

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The transformative impact of the South Wales Metro rail project

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Aled Edwards of communications consultancy Freshwater says the £1.3bn Metro can be more than just a transport project but a wider economic driver

South Wales Metro

Tram-trains that will run on the South Wales Metro.(Image: John Myers)

After 15 years and more than £1bn of investment, the South Wales Metro is nearing completion. What was once an ambitious vision is now becoming a lived reality across the Cardiff Capital Region.

New trains are in operation and, by the end of 2027, we will see four electric ‘tram-trains’ per hour linking Aberdare, Merthyr and Treherbert directly with Cardiff – cutting journey times and doubling capacity on the ‘Core Valley Lines’.

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For commuters, students and other public transport users, these are tangible, practical gains. But as the programme approaches completion, a more searching question comes into focus: how do we fully maximise its impact?

READ MORE: Cost of South Wales Metro rail electrification project to reach £1.3bnREAD MORE: We need a new Welsh Development Agency and a radical approach to business support

Backed by the Welsh Government and Cardiff Capital Region, the Metro is already improving reliability, increasing frequency and expanding access to opportunity. Employers can draw from a wider labour pool, college and university courses become more accessible, as workers and students benefit from cheaper, faster and more predictable journeys.

At a time when congestion and environmental pressures are mounting, the shift towards high-quality public transport also supports efforts to reduce car dependency and lower emissions.

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However, the success of the Metro should not be measured solely by passenger numbers or reduced traffic on our roads. Its true value lies in whether it can act as a catalyst for wider economic and social change; accelerating much-needed regeneration projects, supporting better housing, attracting investment and connecting people of all ages and backgrounds to opportunity.

Take our town centres, for example. Many high streets have faced years of decline, shaped by changing planning policies, emerging technologies and evolving retail habits, as well as wider economic pressures. The Metro offers a chance to reverse that decline by bringing more people within easy reach of local centres.

Yet improved access alone will not be enough. Without complementary investment in placemaking and business support, the risk is that passengers simply pass through rather than stop and spend.

Housing presents a similar challenge. Enhanced connectivity makes new locations viable for development, potentially easing pressure on high-demand areas. But this must be carefully managed. Building more homes is not, in itself, a solution unless they are the right homes in the right places, supported by appropriate infrastructure and services.

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Aligning future transport and planning policy will be critical if the Metro is to facilitate sustainable development, rather than piecemeal expansion.

This is where more innovative approaches, such as transit-oriented evelopment (TOD), deserve greater attention. By concentrating mixed-use development around transport hubs, we can create vibrant, walkable neighbourhoods that maximise the value of public investment.

While widely adopted in places like Denmark and the Netherlands, the approach remains relatively under-utilised in south Wales and, many believe, holds the secret to unlocking the full potential of the Metro network.

The potential also extends beyond bricks and mortar. One of the Metro’s most significant promises is its ability to improve social mobility by linking communities more effectively to centres of employment, education and training. As better connectivity improves access to colleges and training centres, it can attract new employers, help existing businesses tackle persistent skills shortages and allow individuals to upskill and retrain in response to a changing economy.

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But realising this potential isn’t going to happen by accident. Policy makers, planners, developers, employers and education providers all need to engage actively in shaping how the system evolves.

There are also important questions about leadership, accountability and investment. Who is responsible for ensuring the benefits of Metro are fully realised? Where should future funding be directed? And how do we ensure that progress is shared across all communities, rather than concentrated in a few locations?

These are precisely the questions that will be explored at Metro & Us, a one-day conference and exhibition taking place at the Depot Cardiff on June 4th.

The brainchild of Professor Mark Barry from Cardiff University and supported by the likes of Arup, Cardiff and Vale College, Cardiff Capital Region, Capital Law, Mott MacDonald, Transport for Wales and Freshwater; the conference features sessions spanning transport, regeneration, housing, education and investment and aims to move the debate forward, from infrastructure delivery to long-term impact.

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The South Wales Metro is, by any measure, a major achievement. The challenge now is to ensure that this transformation in transport provision becomes a transformation in prosperity, opportunity and ambition that will benefit individuals, businesses and communities across the entire region.

For further information on Metro & Us click here

  • Aled Edwards is director at Freshwater, the Cardiff-headquartered communications consultancy, and event organiser of Metro & Us.
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Walmart rolls out Great Value brand refresh

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Walmart rolls out Great Value brand refresh

First redesign in more than a decade.

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Oil prices plunge as Iran says Strait of Hormuz 'open' during ceasefire

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Oil prices plunge as Iran says Strait of Hormuz 'open' during ceasefire

Brent crude sinks 10% after Iran says the key waterway is completely open for commercial ships for the rest of the ceasefire.

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Lifetime achievement award for Low Cost Vans founder Rod Lloyd

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He has received the Freddie Aldous Lifetime Achievement award from the British Vehicle Rental & Leasing Association

Rod Lloyd.(Image: Western Mail and Echo Ltd.)

Founder of one of the UK’s most successful vehicle leasing businesses Low Cost Vans (LVC Group), Rod Lloyd, has received a lifetime achievement award in recognition of his huge contribution to the sector.

Mr Lloyd, from Neath, has been presented with the Freddie Aldous Lifetime Achievement award from the British Vehicle Rental & Leasing Association (BVRLA).

Mr Lloyd established Swansea-based Low Cost Vans (LCV Group) in 1999 before selling the multi-million-pound turnover venture last year to Global Vehicle Group. He was chair of the BVRLA leasing broker board for two year up until December last year.

READ MORE: Ecology Building Society to open its first UK physical branch in the ValleysREAD MORE: Chief executive of Bristol Airport Dave Lees to stand down

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As chair he helped to steer the sector through the regulatory issues raised by the mis-selling of motor finance – which was cited for him receiving the award.

Annually the BVRLA recognises his legacy by celebrating the efforts of colleagues that have shown “selfless and sustained leadership” through the support they have provided to the organisation and its work. The award is in honour of the BVRLA’s honorary life president who passed away in 2017.

Chief executive of the BVRLA, Toby Poston, said: “We recently we saw the sector firmly in the firing line as motor finance came under the regulatory and legal spotlight. That situation rolls on, but Rod Lloyd did more than any other to ensure that broker members had the support and advice they needed to get through some very dark times.

“He committed exceptional time, energy and passion to not only make the case for brokers, but to also field their calls and concerns. He made a deliberate choice to support others in the industry when he could have very easily chosen to focus on his own personal responsibilities.”

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Mr Lloyd’s work with regulatory bodies and the HMRC saw leasing brokers – companies that broker funding for business contract hire and personal contract hire agreements on cars and vans – being moved out of scope.

Mr Lloyd said: “It was a scary time, to be honest. Although leasing brokers had followed all the guidance provided by the Financial Conduct Authority, everyone’s business was potentially under threat.

“As chair of the BVRLA leasing broker committee I felt it was incumbent on me to demonstrate to the various bodies that the Court of Appeal ruling on motor finance was being incorrectly applied to leasing brokers, a result eventually upheld by the Supreme Court.”

On his award, he added:“I’m hugely grateful to the BVRLA for becoming a recipient of the Freddie Aldous Award. It’s unexpected, but a real honour which I’m very proud of.”

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Mr Lloyd continues to run his property business, Crownhawk Properties, whose assets include the recently refurbished Riverside House in Swansea. Following the sale of the LCV Group he is looking to provide consultancy services to the leasing sector.

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How to know if you're on an energy price cap tariff

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How to know if you're on an energy price cap tariff

Martin was shocked to learn how many people didn’t know if they were on an energy price cap.

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10 Game-Changing Facts About Elon Musk’s Terafab AI Chip Megafactory in 2026

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10 Game-Changing Facts About Elon Musk’s Terafab AI Chip Megafactory

AUSTIN, Texas — Elon Musk’s audacious Terafab project, a vertically integrated semiconductor powerhouse backed by Tesla, SpaceX, xAI and now Intel, is reshaping ambitions for American chip manufacturing and the future of AI compute on Earth and in orbit.

10 Game-Changing Facts About Elon Musk’s Terafab AI Chip Megafactory
10 Game-Changing Facts About Elon Musk’s Terafab AI Chip Megafactory in 2026

Announced by Musk on March 21, 2026, at a decommissioned power plant in Austin, Terafab aims to produce more than 1 terawatt of AI compute capacity annually — a staggering scale that dwarfs current global output and addresses the explosive demand from autonomous vehicles, humanoid robots and orbital data centers.

Here are 10 essential things to know about the project as it gains momentum in 2026.

First, Terafab represents an unprecedented level of vertical integration in semiconductor production. Unlike traditional fabs that specialize in one stage, the facility will consolidate chip design, lithography, fabrication, memory production, advanced packaging and testing under a single roof. This approach is designed to accelerate innovation, reduce dependencies on global supply chains and slash time from design to deployment for custom AI processors.

Second, the project’s scale is breathtaking. Terafab targets 1 terawatt per year of compute output, roughly equivalent to twice the current annual U.S. electricity consumption of about 0.5 terawatts. The full-scale operation envisions producing 100-200 billion custom AI and memory chips annually, supporting everything from Tesla’s Full Self-Driving systems and Optimus humanoid robots to SpaceX’s satellite constellations and xAI’s training clusters.

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Third, location and cost underscore its ambition. The pilot facility is planned for the North Campus of Giga Texas in Austin, with a total investment estimated between $20 billion and $25 billion. Initial operations will focus on prototype production using advanced 2-nanometer process technology, scaling toward 100,000 wafer starts per month before expanding to 1 million.

Fourth, Intel joined the venture on April 7, 2026, bringing critical manufacturing expertise. The chip giant’s involvement is expected to help “refactor silicon fab technology” and accelerate the goal of ultra-high-performance processors at massive volumes. Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan highlighted the collaboration’s potential to power robotics and data center ambitions across the partner companies.

Fifth, supplier outreach is moving at what Musk calls “light speed.” In mid-April 2026, Terafab teams contacted major equipment providers including Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron and Samsung Electronics for rapid price quotes and delivery timelines. Tesla has also posted job openings in Taiwan seeking experienced semiconductor engineers with at least five years in advanced processes to support the effort.

Sixth, Terafab is explicitly designed with space in mind. Musk and the project team emphasize that orbital AI compute offers compelling cost advantages over Earth-based data centers due to abundant solar power, natural cooling in vacuum and reduced regulatory hurdles. The initiative envisions launching millions of tons of mass into orbit annually and harnessing more than 1 terawatt of solar power, positioning Terafab as a stepping stone toward a multi-planetary civilization.

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Seventh, specific chip lines are already outlined. Early products include the AI5 for Tesla’s Full Self-Driving and initial Optimus deployments, AI6 for scaled robot production, and D3 variants hardened for space environments. These processors will power not only terrestrial autonomy but also future orbital AI infrastructure and lunar mass driver concepts.

Eighth, the project builds directly on the partners’ proven track records. Tesla has delivered millions of vehicles with increasingly sophisticated AI, launched unsupervised camera-only self-driving, and built massive energy storage systems. SpaceX has revolutionized access to orbit with reusable rockets and operates the world’s largest satellite internet constellation. xAI has constructed gigawatt-scale training clusters and the largest coherent supercomputer. Together, these capabilities provide a foundation for executing Terafab’s vision.

Ninth, timing is aggressive yet phased. Silicon manufacturing is targeted to begin by 2029, with steady scaling thereafter. Musk has stressed the urgency, noting that existing chipmakers like TSMC and Samsung cannot ramp production quickly enough to meet the combined needs of Tesla’s robotaxi and Optimus fleets, SpaceX’s Starship ambitions and xAI’s models. “We either build Terafab or we don’t have the chips,” he said during the launch event.

Tenth, Terafab carries broader strategic implications for U.S. technology leadership. By bringing advanced semiconductor production back onshore and integrating it with domestic AI and space efforts, the project could reduce reliance on overseas foundries amid geopolitical tensions. It also signals a new model of collaboration among Musk’s companies, potentially inspiring further consolidation in the sector while challenging the dominance of traditional players.

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As of mid-April 2026, the initiative remains in early planning and supplier-engagement stages, but momentum is building rapidly. Positive market reactions have followed key announcements, including Intel’s participation. Industry observers note the enormous engineering and capital challenges ahead, including securing rare materials, training a specialized workforce and navigating complex regulatory approvals for such a massive facility.

Yet the vision resonates with Musk’s long-term goals of sustainable energy, autonomous transportation, humanoid robotics and multi-planetary life. Terafab is framed not merely as a factory but as infrastructure for a future where AI compute scales to terawatt levels, powered by the sun and deployed across Earth and beyond.

Critics question whether the timeline and cost estimates are realistic given the historical difficulties of building leading-edge fabs. TSMC, for example, has invested hundreds of billions over decades to reach its current capacity. Terafab’s vertically integrated approach aims to compress that process dramatically, but execution risks remain high.

Supporters point to the complementary strengths of the partners: Tesla’s manufacturing scale, SpaceX’s launch capabilities and xAI’s AI expertise, now augmented by Intel’s process technology. If successful, Terafab could accelerate breakthroughs in energy-efficient AI chips, enable fleets of millions of Optimus robots and support orbital data centers that process information more efficiently than ground-based alternatives.

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For investors and technologists, the project adds another layer to the narrative around Musk’s ecosystem. Tesla shares have shown volatility tied to AI and autonomy updates, while the broader semiconductor sector watches closely for any shifts in competitive dynamics.

As Terafab advances from concept to construction, it stands as one of the most ambitious industrial undertakings of the decade — a bold bet that American innovation, vertical integration and interstellar aspirations can overcome the bottlenecks that currently constrain AI progress.

The coming months will reveal more details on site preparation, specific process nodes and partnership structures. For now, the message from Austin is clear: the race to build the brains of tomorrow’s machines — on Earth and among the stars — has entered a new, dramatically scaled chapter.

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