Business
Unlicensed Gambling Continues to Grow in Sweden Ahead of 2026, Despite Tighter Regulations
Unlicensed gambling in Sweden has continued to grow. Tighter regulations may not be having the impact the government desires, instead driving people offshore.
January 2027 will see the introduction of a new law in Sweden, which targets the location of a player using online gambling services. This will counteract a loophole, which it is believed is facilitating rapidly falling channelisation rates in the country. It will be supported by the Swedish Trade Association for Online Gambling, though warnings have been made about how it will have little impact if overregulation burdens current operators.
Growth in Unlicensed Gambling Among Swedish Players
A report from April of last year by the Swedish Gambling Authority looked at 1,100 unlicensed gambling sites. It is estimated that 65% of this traffic was covered by active oversight. It placed unlicensed operators under three categories. These were totally unregulated entities, those regulated in other EU countries, such as Malta, and those regulated elsewhere in the world, such as Curaçao.
The report broke users down into categories. These were people who did so without knowing they were at unlicensed operators, underage gamblers, those registered with the Swedish gambling exclusion system and lastly those looking for sites with fewer restrictions. It showed that traffic to unlicensed operators, or those licensed in Sweden, was still extremely high.
ATG runs horse racing betting in the country. Its CEO, Hasse Lord Skarplöth, noted that “It is unreasonable that such a large proportion of gambling still takes place outside the licensing system. Unlicensed gambling is a breeding ground for money laundering, but above all, Swedish players are without protection from rogue operators. The annual turnover of unlicensed gambling is almost as much as the entire Swedish primary school costs.”
As Sweden moves toward 2026, the gambling market faces a clear imbalance where stricter regulation improves consumer protection but also pushes some players toward offshore alternatives, making it increasingly important for users to understand their legal and safer options when choosing among the best casino sites in Sweden operating under the national licensing framework.
Improved but Insufficient Channelisation Rates
In Q4 of 2024, the channelisation rate was around 69% and 82%. This was way below the 90% target the country had set out in 2019, when Sweden introduced its regulated market. This was only a marginal increase from the 70% and 82% suggested the year before. In 2023, it had stood at 86%, meaning 14% of gambling took place outside the regulated system.
The industry itself believes that strict oversight will continue to contribute to this volatility in the channelisation rates. Their logic is that blocks, bans, and higher costs will do little if offshore regulators are able to offer better services. This requires a change in attitude, making Swedish licensed operators more competitive and providing the regulatory framework that allows them to do so.
Taxation is a huge balancing act here. In 2024, the gambling tax rose from 18% to 22%. The Swedish Trade Association for Gambling has noted that higher taxes will lead to differences in quality between licensed and unlicensed operators as costs cut into companies’ profits.
For operators to be illegal in Sweden, they must fall within the “targeting criterion”. This gets complicated because sites which are accessible from Sweden are not automatically deemed illegal. Instead, they must target their services directly at the Swedish market. For example, a website in the Philippines written in English and serving European customers is not illegal. Yet if they add Swedish customer service and begin advertising in Sweden, they are.
This makes for an interesting loophole. There are licensed operators, unlicensed operators that are still technically legal, and then ones which are both illegal and unlicensed. This data then becomes even harder to quantify when you consider that many Swedish players speak and read English, and have bank accounts that operate in Euros.
The Continuing Challenges for Licensed Operators
One challenge is that many illegal gambling sites use the same platform providers as licensed ones. Research from Aktiebolaget Trav och Galopp (ATG) has suggested this could be as high as 17 out of 20 platforms. This makes it extremely hard to push the narrative that, in terms of UX, design and games, legalised operators are providing a much better service.
A further debate on taxation is also ongoing regarding the splitting of taxes. ATG wants to split this by product. This would provide a different rate for sports betting than for online casino gaming. This is being opposed by others, who believe that it would push players further offshore.
Advertising is another issue that must be addressed. Svenska Spel is the state-owned operator, and has been accused of giving itself an advantage, especially when it comes to an 18-point plan it has suggested regarding the advertising of gambling products. Further restrictions on advertising are being given as another regulation that could burden domestic operators.
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Operator
Good afternoon, I’d like to welcome everyone to Repay’s Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being recorded today, March 9, 2026.
I’d like to turn the session over to Stewart Grisante, Head of Investor Relations at Repay. Stewart, you may begin.
Stewart Grisante
Head of Investor Relations
Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to Repay’s Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. With us today are John Morris, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer; and Robert Houser, Chief Financial Officer.
During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements about our beliefs and estimates regarding future events and results. Those forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in the SEC filings related to today’s results and in our most recent Form 10-K. Actual results may differ materially from any forward-looking statements that we make today.
Forward-looking statements speak only as of today, and we do not assume any obligation or intend to update them except as required by law. In an effort to provide additional information to investors, today’s discussion will also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations and other explanations of those non-GAAP financial measures can be found in today’s press release and in the earnings supplement, each of which are available on the company’s IR site.
With that, I will now turn the call over to John.
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A shock to oil supplies is rattling financial markets, driving up prices at the pump and raising fears of a bigger economic hit.
For those wondering about the state of play for oil prices, gasoline, and stocks, here’s what President Trump said this afternoon: “I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no Air Force.” And that America is “very far” ahead of his initial four-week to five-week estimated time frame.
Soon after the President’s statement, oil fell to $85 a barrel after topping $100 a barrel earlier in the day and stocks ended up rising more than 200 points.
And I have faith in him and his initial judgements, which have been superb. And I also have faith in the American people to stand behind Mr. Trump’s epic fury in order to change the course of history, and completely shift the international landscape and change the world’s balance of power in favor of America, the Western democracies, of course Israel, and our friends in the Middle East. I even saw a 52 percent favorable Rasmussen poll.
As I’ve said before, this is like the Berlin Wall coming down with President Reagan ending Soviet Communism. Or FDR ending fascism in World War II. And Mr. Trump ending ISIS in the first term, and now ending the barbaric terror state Iran, to finally conclude Iran’s 47-year forever war against America. A temporary blip in gasoline prices is a very small price to pay to achieve literally world-shattering results.
Fox News contributor Newt Gingrich discusses the Trump administration’s aggressive stance toward Iran amid Operation Epic Fury on ‘Kudlow.’
Mr. Trump is bending the arc of history toward freedom and prosperity. If you’re looking for economic impact estimates, there are a dime a dozen, and I wouldn’t put any confidence in any of them right now. Inflation, recession, stagflation.
I suppose it all depends on the duration of the war, which is unknowable, but it’s not going to be six months or twelve months or longer. Therefore, why bother to guesstimate?
We can say this factually, through the third quarter of 2025, according to OPEC, world oil production was 106.3 million barrels per day, more than world oil demand which was 105.5 million barrels per day.
If you take out a fifth of oil production because the Strait of Hormuz is not functioning, of course you have a dire Strait. But Mr. Trump is moving rapidly to reopen Hormuz with reinsurance guarantees and United States Navy protection. When? Probably a week or two, maybe less.
Iran will never stop this. And if they dare, it will make matters even more catastrophic for them. Hormuz will not stop history. Investors should look through this war and see the enormous prosperity that lies on the other side. And ordinary American working folks should celebrate the greatness of America.
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Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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