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US federal deficit projected to hit $2 trillion in fiscal year 2026

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US national debt hits historic $39 trillion milestone for first time

The federal government is projected to run a budget deficit of at least $2 trillion this fiscal year, according to an estimate by the Treasury Department and bond market participants.

Earlier this month, the Treasury released its quarterly refunding documents for the second quarter of the calendar year, which included estimates of needed borrowing over the next two quarters of fiscal year 2026 as of April.

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It showed that the White House is anticipating a roughly $2.1 trillion deficit in FY2026 based on the president’s budget, while participants in the bond market expect the deficit to be about $2 trillion.

Both figures are up from the estimate of more than $1.8 trillion that was produced by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in February based on legislation passed by Congress as of mid-January. The U.S. ran a deficit of just over $1.8 trillion in the last fiscal year.

US NATIONAL DEBT SURPASSES SIZE OF ECONOMY FOR FIRST TIME SINCE WORLD WAR II

The U.S. Capitol's reflection after a rain storm.

Federal budget deficits are growing amid rising interest costs and increased spending on programs like Social Security and Medicare. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

“Both the Treasury and the markets agree we’re on course to borrow $2 trillion this year, up from the $1.8 trillion deficit we logged last year. $2 trillion deficits used to be unheard of, and then they only occurred during major recessions – it’s beyond scary that $2 trillion deficits are now the norm,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB).

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A federal deficit of $2 trillion or more in fiscal year 2026 would rank as one of the largest in U.S. history, coming in at third on the all-time list.

The two largest budget deficits in U.S. history were both incurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the biggest totaling $3.1 trillion in fiscal year 2020 and the next-largest reaching nearly $2.8 trillion the following year amid a surge of stimulus spending to support the economy.

US NATIONAL DEBT BREACHES $39 TRILLION MILESTONE FOR FIRST TIME AMID SPENDING SURGE

MacGuineas said that the latest deficit projection is “yet another data point – along with debt passing 100% of the economy in March and interest spending on track to top more than $1 trillion this year – showing the need for us to get our fiscal situation under control.”

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“Markets will only tolerate our unsustainable borrowing for so long; the risk of fiscal crisis gets higher as the days pass. We need deficit reduction urgently,” she added.

US DEBT SET TO CRUSH WORLD WAR II RECORD AS ANNUAL DEFICITS EXPLODE TO $3T WITHIN DECADE

Data from the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the U.S. national debt surpassed the size of the economy in April for the first time since the World War II era. 

The highest recorded ratio of public debt to GDP was recorded in 1946, when it reached 106% of GDP as the U.S. was in the process of demobilization after the end of the war. 

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The CBO estimated earlier this year that the U.S. will break that record in 2030, with it expected to rise to 108% that year.

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Federal debt has surged in recent years amid rising spending on entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare as America’s population ages, as well as mounting interest costs incurred amid a growing debt and elevated interest rates.

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Record spend delivers new pressure test

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Record spend delivers new pressure test

WA’s $44.3 billion infrastructure pipeline shows the challenge has switched from funding to delivery.

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Chicago Atlantic: Elevated Yield Keeps The Cautious Buy Stance Intact

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Chicago Atlantic: Elevated Yield Keeps The Cautious Buy Stance Intact

Chicago Atlantic: Elevated Yield Keeps The Cautious Buy Stance Intact

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Accenture plc (ACN) Rethinking and Maturing AI Adoption Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Ipek Ozkaya

Hello, and welcome to today’s Carnegie Mellon University Software Engineering Institute’s webcast, Rethinking and Maturing AI Adoption. My name is Ipek Ozkaya, and I’m the Technical Director of AI Native Software Engineering at the SEI. And I’ve had the incredible pleasure of leading this project focused on AI adoption maturity with our team at the SEI and the incredible team at Accenture.

We want to make today’s conversation as interactive as possible. So please feel free to put your questions into the YouTube chat area. And we’ve already received close to 200 questions. There is no way we’ll be able to get through any of them in completeness, but we’ll try to get to them as much as possible afterwards.

It is no surprise today that businesses are — across all sectors are redefining themselves and going through a structural shift through AI solutions. And they are trying to redefine their operational relevance, their operational workflows as well as get ahead of the businesses through ROI. Software-driven organizations are also going through the same challenge. In fact, the software as a discipline is being redefined through AI, looking into efficiency, productivity and of course, some of the risks that come with it.

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And clearly, all the organizations that deliver us the frontier models, OpenAI, Google, Microsoft and Anthropic are developing improved capabilities around the clock, and we’re receiving these capabilities around a lot faster. If we look into 2 years ago, the early generative AI models could barely solve some of the cybersecurity tasks. But today, we know the Mythos and GPT 5.5 could actually

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Bank stocks rally as RBI steps lift mood, trigger short covering

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Bank stocks rally as RBI steps lift mood, trigger short covering
Bank stocks gained as much as 5% on Tuesday after the raft of measures introduced by RBI to help hedge foreign currency borrowings stoked investor optimism and led to traders covering some of their bearish bets.

Bank Nifty rose 2.1% to 55,194.50; and closed above 55,000 levels after two weeks while benchmark Nifty moved 0.5% higher on Tuesday. All 14 constituents of Bank Nifty moved higher on Tuesday. .

Bank of Baroda jumped 5.5% while Canara Bank climbed 4.5%. Punjab National Bank and Federal Bank advanced around 3.5%.

“The measures by RBI are likely to drive a healthy deposit base for banks and lead to cheaper cost of funds since the hedging cost on FCNRB is borne by the Central Bank while the hedging costs on ECB’s is subsidised,” said Dharmesh Kant, head of research, Cholamandalam Securities.

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Bank stocks rally as RBI steps lift mood, trigger short covering<br>ET Bureau

Last week, the RBI announced measures to boost foreign currency inflows and to support the rupee. The Central Bank offered concessional dollar-rupee swap facility to absorb the entire forex hedging costs for three-to-five-year Foreign Currency Non-Resident (FCNR[B]) deposits until October 16, 2026. In addition, it offered a concessional swap facility for eligible External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) raised by public sector entities, fixing the hedging cost at 1.5% per annum.


This policy allows Indian banks to access low-cost global capital and alleviate domestic deposit crunches without bearing currency risk, said analysts. “The sudden fundamental clarity triggered massive technical short covering, catching derivative traders by surprise and sparking a rapid short squeeze since the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) had dropped into an oversold zone below 0.80 ahead of the news,” said Nishchal Jain, Quant Researcher, Share. Market by Phone Pe.
The high-volume breakout past 55,100 and decisive price action, shifts the market regime from “sell on rallies” to “buy on dips”, establishing 55,000 as a strong psychological support base- forming a high-conviction bullish view, he said.

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IGO shares slide after fire at processing plant

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IGO shares slide after fire at processing plant

IGO says spodumene production remains on track after reporting that a fire broke out at its new chemical-grade processing plant at the Greenbushes lithium operation.

Shares in the critical minerals miner slid in morning trade after reporting a fire had occurred at its $880 million Chemical Grade Plant 3 (CGP3) plant at the Greenbushes mine site yesterday.

IGO said the fire was extinguished and no injuries were sustained, and that its first and second chemical crushing and processing plants on site were unaffected by the blaze. 

The third chemical plant at the hard-rock lithium operation in the state’s South West falls under the ownership of Talison Lithium, in which IGO owns an indirect 25 per cent stake, alongside China’s Tianqi Lithium (26 per cent) and US major Albemarle Corporation (49 per cent).

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CGP3 is the third chemical grade plant built at the Greenbushes operation, which is still ramping up after processing first ore in December last year.

It has a processing capacity of 2.4 million tonnes per annum to produce up to 500,000 tonnes per annum of lithium mineral concentrate. 

The market was told Talison Lithium had commenced a full investigation into the cause and damage from the incident on Tuesday.

IGO said Greenbushes production remained on track to meet its FY26 guidance of between 1,375 million and 1,425 million tonnes of spodumene concentrate.

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The fire at the new plant represents another setback for the critical minerals miner, which has been grappling with challenges at its co-owned Kwinana lithium hydroxide plant.

That downstream processing plant is operating at about 50 per cent nameplate capacity, which was an improvement when reported in the March quarter.

IGO and joint venture partner in the plant, Tianqi Lithium, have been increasingly at odds over the future of the plant, after the ASX-listed miner wrote down its value to zero.

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Shares in IGO are trading down 6 per cent to $8.48 apiece at 11AM AWST.

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Prop traders seek relief on margin funding as global rivals up game

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Prop traders seek relief on margin funding as global rivals up game
Domestic proprietary stock traders are set to seek regulatory intervention to lobby the central bank to rework the margin funding rules for their trades as the existing proposal puts them at a disadvantage over global traders that are stepping on the gas in India, people familiar with the matter said.

The Commodity and Capital Market Participants Association of India (CPAI) is working with the Industry Standards Forum (ISF), a body comprising members of various industry associations, to create a separate framework that would distinguish between liquidity providers and speculators. That they believe would help them to convince the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to permit lower margin for the bank guarantees and enable them to trade higher volumes.

The RBI has mandated that banks lending to capital market intermediaries (CMIs) extend guarantees for proprietary trading subject to the facility being fully secured. The proposal says that banks can extend guarantee only to the amount equal to the value of the collateral provided by the proprietary trading firm.

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SailPoint: Weaker Net-New ARR Amid Lofty Valuation (Rating Downgrade)

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SailPoint: Weaker Net-New ARR Amid Lofty Valuation (Rating Downgrade)

SailPoint: Weaker Net-New ARR Amid Lofty Valuation (Rating Downgrade)

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Trump administration urges judge to reject bid to block White House UFC event

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Trump administration urges judge to reject bid to block White House UFC event


Trump administration urges judge to reject bid to block White House UFC event

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World's largest chipmaker does not rule out price rises as costs increase

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World's largest chipmaker does not rule out price rises as costs increase

In a rare interview, a senior executive at TSMC discusses the AI boom, the geopolitics of chips and what it means for the price of electronics.

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Kalshi to make some users reveal job details to tackle insider trading

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Kalshi to make some users reveal job details to tackle insider trading

After issues with insider trading, the prediction betting platform is adding new rules.

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