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US-India trade deal revives FII interest, but AI threat clouds earnings and jobs: Saurabh Mukherjea

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US-India trade deal revives FII interest, but AI threat clouds earnings and jobs: Saurabh Mukherjea
Markets have seen a shift in sentiment following the finalisation of the US-India trade agreement, with foreign institutional investors (FIIs) beginning to return after months of heavy selling. However, despite policy stimulus and improving quarterly numbers, concerns over earnings growth and the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence on jobs and business models are emerging as key risks.

Speaking to ET Now, Marcellus Investment Managers’ Founder Saurabh Mukherjea said the long-anticipated US-India free trade agreement has been a major trigger for renewed foreign investor interest.

“As we expected for many months, the US-India FTA would be the trigger, the comfort that foreign investors need to reconsider India seriously. Those months that America had a 50% tariff slammed on us, we really were not in the reckoning globally. I do not think any foreign investor would seriously consider us then. But now that it looks like the worst is behind us and the proper FTA itself will get signed in a couple of months, foreign investors are interested again.”

However, Mukherjea cautioned that serious foreign inflows are still being held back by a lack of confidence in earnings growth, despite multiple policy measures aimed at reviving the economy.

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“What is holding back serious money is still the lack of confidence in earnings growth. Earnings growth has been decent this season, better than Q2 which was dismal. But given the potency of the GST cut, of the income tax cuts that the FM delivered last year, and 125 bps of rate cuts, it is literally full-on stimulus to juice up the economy. Given all of that, the earnings are still not doing justice to the sheer effort the government and the RBI are putting in to revive the economy, and that is worrying several investors including us.”


While pockets such as FMCG and automobiles have delivered stronger results, Mukherjea said broader consumption has not shown the buoyancy many had expected. He pointed to artificial intelligence as a key structural factor weighing on middle-class employment and spending.
“There are bright spots. FMCG has had a good earning season, auto has been having a good earning season now for a couple of quarters. But across the piece, in totality, we are still not seeing the buoyancy in consumption that we had expected. And the reason for that is the AI impact. I think jobs are going. Companies are obviously keeping quiet about it, but jobs are going.”He added that the impact is already visible in certain real estate markets.

“You can see the impact on real estate markets such as Hyderabad and Bangalore where residential real estate demand has conked off pretty seriously, and that is something we now need to take into account.”

With the trade deal largely in place, Mukherjea said his firm is increasing exposure to export-oriented manufacturers, but warned that the broader focus will now shift to how deeply AI affects employment and consumption.

“The US trade deal is done, or the crux of it is done. People like us are beginning to increase weights in export-oriented manufacturers. We are hoping to make more money from our export-oriented manufacturing plays. But a lot of focus will now shift on what is the potency of AI’s impact in terms of taking out middle-class jobs.”

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Addressing the ongoing weakness in IT services stocks, Mukherjea said the selling pressure may not be over yet, pointing to similar trends playing out in the US.

“There is plenty to go here. If you just step back and think about it, there is a broader story. If you look at the selloff in America in the brokerage and wealth management names, the broker and wealth management names have lost almost 20% of their market cap in America this week.”

He said markets are increasingly discounting the vulnerability of intermediary-driven business models.

“What the market is increasingly discounting in the United States is not just traditional coding, but almost any type of information intermediation. Any business which is in the business of taking lots of data, condensing it, and giving the customer a view and then a service on the back of that view — whether it be hotel bookings or IT services or strategy advice or stock recommendations — that whole piece is at risk.”

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Mukherjea warned that this disruption will extend well beyond IT services and could fundamentally reshape multiple white-collar industries, including asset and wealth management.

“I do not think this is going to be limited to IT services. The disruption AI is causing is a fundamental rebuilding of business models not just in IT services but even say in our industry.”

On the future of large IT services firms, Mukherjea outlined three major layers of impact: consolidation, changes in the nature of services, and a sharp reduction in employment.

“The first is that I do not think there will be this many IT services companies a decade out. We have too many IT services companies not just in India but across the world, and there simply is not that much need.”

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He said the nature of IT services will also shift away from traditional coding.

“The type of service will change. It will be far less time and materials. It will be far less coding. There will be far more business architecture and strategy advice bundled into it.”

Most significantly, Mukherjea expects employment levels in the sector to fall sharply.

“By orders of magnitude, the number of people employed in this industry will reduce. Just to give a broad sense, I think TCS employs 600,000 people. Microsoft would be around 200,000–250,000. A firm like OpenAI will be around 2,000, and DeepSeek employs 200 people.”

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He added that job losses are already visible in data from recruitment platforms.

“From what I can see in the Naukri numbers, this sector is shedding jobs already at the rate of 10–15% a year. So that story has a long way to go.”

Mukherjea concluded that while export manufacturing may benefit from global trade realignments, AI-led disruption will force multiple industries to rethink business models and employment structures over the coming years.

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Why animals will replace historical figures on bank notes

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Why animals will replace historical figures on bank notes

British wildlife will replace historical figures on the next series of Bank of England banknote

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Dunkin’ debuts zero-sugar energy beverages

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Dunkin’ debuts zero-sugar energy beverages

The functional beverage is offered in six flavors.

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Earnings call transcript: Vivendi sees profit swing in Q4 2025

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Earnings call transcript: Vivendi sees profit swing in Q4 2025

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Student loans inquiry to look at whether system is 'unfair to graduates'

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Student loans inquiry to look at whether system is 'unfair to graduates'

The Treasury Committee will look at whether “the goalposts [have] been moved in a way which is unfair”.

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Oil-Dri Corporation of America (ODC) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q2 Fiscal ’26 earnings discussion for Oil-Dri Corporation of America. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker for today, President and CEO, Dan Jaffee. Jaffee, please go ahead.

Daniel Jaffee
Chairman, CEO & President

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Thank you, and welcome, everybody. And we are in virtual mode. So we’ve got people dialing in from all over, I’m going to introduce them. We very much appreciate you guys getting your questions in early. That gave us a chance to develop our responses and prioritize. So thank you for doing that.

With me today is Susan Kreh, our CFO and CIO; Aaron Christiansen, our VP of Operations; Chris Lamson, Group Vice President of business-to-business and strategic growth initiatives; Wade Robey, VP of Agriculture and President of Amlan International; Laura Scheland, Vice President and General Manager of our Consumer Products division; Bruce Patsey, our Vice President of Fluids Purification; Mervyn de Souza, VP of Research and Development; Tony Parker, our VP, General Counsel and Secretary; and Leslie Garber, our Director of Investor Relations, and I’m going to turn it over to Leslie for our safe harbor provision.

Leslie Garber
Director of Investor Relations

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Good morning, everyone. I also just want to note that John Blake, VP, Corporate Controller, is also on the call today.

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Washington lawmakers pass 9.9% “millionaires tax”

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Washington lawmakers pass 9.9% "millionaires tax"

Washington state lawmakers on Wednesday passed a so-called “millionaires tax,” a move criticism said could lead to an exodus of high-income earners.

The State Senate passed the measure with a day left in the 2026 legislative session, following a hotly contested 24-hour marathon in the State House. 

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The bill would impose a 9.9% tax on income over $1 million for individuals or couples in a household.

The funds generated from the tax would address the state budget, which is currently dealing with a multi-billion dollar deficit, Fox Seattle reported. 

KEN GRIFFIN’S FLORIDA TAKEOVER: CITADEL FOUNDER SHELLS OUT $180M FOR LATEST PIECE OF MIAMI EMPIRE

The Washington state capitol building

An aerial view of Washington State Capitol in Olympia.  ( Joe Sohm/Visions of America/Universal Images Group via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Funds would also go toward programs to improve affordability for working families and small business owners. The legislation would go into effect on Jan. 1, 2028, with tax payments starting in 2029.

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It is expected to impact 21,000 residents across the state. The bill now heads to the desk of Gov. Bob Ferguson, who has backed the measure. 

On Tuesday, he said the bill “represents historic progress in rebalancing our unfair system. It sends significant dollars back to Washington families and small businesses.”

FLORIDA DOMINATES NATION’S LUXURY REAL ESTATE MARKET WITH LARRY PAGE’S MIAMI ESTATE TOPPING DECEMBER SALES

The Seattle skyline as seen at dusk.

The Seattle skyline. Washington state lawmakers passed a so-called “millionaires tax” this week on high-income earners.  (Juan Mabromata/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

“It saves working parents money and ensures our kids are prepared to learn by funding free breakfast and lunch for all Washington K-12 students, which has been a priority of mine since I ran for governor,” he wrote on X. “The Millionaires’ Tax will apply to less than one half of one percent of Washingtonians, but make life more affordable for millions. I look forward to signing it.”

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A Tax Foundation analysis found that the proposed tax would yield a top rate of more than 18% on wage income and restricted stock units (RSU) vesting in Seattle, making it the highest rate in the U.S.

Washington state has 695,695 small businesses and nearly 360,000 employees in technology-related jobs, according to the Small Business Administration and Washington State Department of Commerce, respectively.

“A tax this aggressive would do real damage to Washington’s economy, sending jobs and economic opportunity elsewhere,” wrote Jared Walczak, a senior fellow at the Tax Foundation. “In particular, for significant swaths of the state’s tech sector, already the target of anomalously high business taxes, a 9.9 percent income tax could prove the last straw, driving any subsequent expansion to other states, and quite possibly taking existing jobs with them.”

The bill has raised concerns from critics who said it could force Washington’s highest earners to leave for more tax-friendly states. 

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Howard Schultz at Senate hearing

“If a Starbucks or a Boeing or other people start to diminish their presence in Washington State, guess what happens?” said Republican lawmaker Andrew Barkisduring the State House’s debate this week, according to the New York Times. “Those high-paying jobs? They are going to leave. It is happening.”

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Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz said in a LinkedIn post this week that he and his wife are moving from Seattle to Florida after more than four decades in the city. He didn’t mention the tax in his post but said he hopes Washington “will remain a place for business and entrepreneurship to thrive.”

Fox Business’ Daniella Genovese contributed to this report. 

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Warriors Star Remains Out with Knee Issue, Re-Evaluation Set for Late March 2026

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Stephen Curry celebrates after breaking Ray Allen’s all-time three-pointer record at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday

San Francisco — Golden State Warriors superstar Stephen Curry continues to rehab a persistent right knee injury, with the team announcing March 11, 2026, that he will miss at least another 10 days and be re-evaluated around March 21.

Stephen Curry celebrates after breaking Ray Allen’s all-time three-pointer record at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday
Stephen Curry

Curry, sidelined since Jan. 30 due to patellofemoral pain syndrome and bone bruising—commonly known as “runner’s knee”—has now missed 15 consecutive games. The latest update from the Warriors indicates steady progress, including intensified individual on-court workouts in recent days, but no immediate return to game action.

The 37-year-old point guard, averaging a team-high 27.2 points per game this season, last suited up against the Detroit Pistons in late January. His absence has coincided with a challenging stretch for the Warriors, who have dropped three straight games and 10 of their last 15 without him, slipping in the Western Conference standings amid a push for play-in positioning.

Warriors officials described Curry’s recovery as positive but unpredictable. Team sources told ESPN’s Anthony Slater that the four-time champion remains “extremely motivated” to return for the stretch run, aiming to guide Golden State into the postseason via the play-in tournament. Curry has advanced to on-court work, a key milestone, with workouts expected to ramp up further.

The injury stems from swelling and pain around the kneecap, an issue that flared during an individual workout in Minneapolis before worsening. Curry has characterized the timeline as “weird” and “unpredictable,” noting daily improvements since the All-Star break but acknowledging setbacks along the way.

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The March 11 re-evaluation marked the third 10-day checkpoint since early March, extending his projected absence to at least 20 games. While some analysts and fans have called for shutting him down for the season to preserve health ahead of his 38th birthday on March 14, Curry and team insiders emphasize his desire to play through the campaign.

Head coach Steve Kerr has voiced frustration over the lingering issue, describing Curry as “frustrated” but committed to a cautious ramp-up. Kerr confirmed Curry’s mindset aligns with pushing for a comeback, though the team prioritizes long-term readiness over rushing back prematurely.

The Warriors’ record without Curry stands at a stark contrast to their success with him on the floor. Golden State posts a winning mark when he plays but struggles defensively and offensively in his absence, relying on Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga, and others to fill the void. Recent losses to bottom-tier teams like the Utah Jazz and Chicago Bulls have amplified concerns about the team’s playoff viability.

Curry’s value extends beyond scoring; his gravity pulls defenses, creating opportunities for teammates, and his leadership anchors the locker room. The injury has tested Golden State’s depth, with bench contributions and defensive schemes adjusted to compensate.

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As the regular season winds down, the Warriors face a critical window. Curry’s potential return could spark a surge, but prolonged absence risks derailing postseason hopes. Analysts project a late-March or early-April comeback if progress holds, aligning with intensified court sessions and the next check-in.

The patellofemoral condition often requires rest, strengthening, and gradual loading to avoid chronic issues, particularly for a high-mileage veteran like Curry. Medical experts note that bone bruising can linger, explaining the extended timeline despite visible advancements.

Fan reactions mix optimism with concern, with social media buzzing over highlights of Curry’s workouts and calls for patience. The Warriors maintain optimism, framing the updates as steps forward rather than setbacks.

Golden State’s next games test resilience without their star. Upcoming matchups could provide momentum or further highlight vulnerabilities, setting the stage for Curry’s eventual reintegration.

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For now, the focus remains on recovery. Curry’s re-evaluation in roughly 10 days—around March 21—will offer the clearest timeline yet. Until then, the Warriors navigate without their greatest shooter, hoping his return ignites a late-season push.

The injury underscores the physical toll of a long career at elite levels, even for a player renowned for durability. Curry’s track record of resilience fuels hope that he can reclaim form and lead Golden State deep into spring contention.

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BofA Securities enters Kaynes Technologies via Rs 42 crore block deal; stock down 48% in six months

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BofA Securities enters Kaynes Technologies via Rs 42 crore block deal; stock down 48% in six months
BofA Securities bought 1.16 lakh shares in Kaynes Technologies on Thursday via a block deal worth Rs 42 crore. The sellers in the deal were Kadensa Master Fund and Bluepearl Map I LP. The shares were bought at a price of Rs 3,614.4 apiece, a 3% discount over Wednesday’s closing price of Rs 3,724.50.

BofA Securities bought these shares through its affiliate BofA Securities Europe SA. Sellers Kadensa and Bluepearl offloaded 46,934 and 69,148 shares, respectively.

Kaynes Technologies shares today ended with cuts of 0.70% or Rs 26.25 to settle at Rs 3,698.25 on the BSE.

Kaynes Technology India is a leading end-to-end and IoT solutions-enabled integrated electronics manufacturer in India. It offers capabilities across the entire spectrum of ESDM services. The company provides conceptual design, process engineering, integrated manufacturing and life cycle support for major players in the automotive, industrial, aerospace & defence and railways.

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Kaynes Technologies share price performance

Kaynes Technologies has been a market laggard, sliding 14% over a one-year period, underperforming the benchmarks Nifty and the BSE Sensex, whose returns in the same period are approximately 5% and 3%, respectively.

The stock has been at the receiving end of investors’ ire, declining 48% in the last six months. In 2026, so far, it has slipped nearly 6%.
The stock is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) of Rs 3,751 and Rs 5,473, respectively, according to Trendlyne data.
The company reported a 15% year-on-year consolidated net profit growth at Rs 77 crore in the December-ended quarter which is a 15.3% YoY growth. In the year ago period, its profit after tax (PAT) stood at Rs 67 crore. Meanwhile, the total revenue in the quarter under review stood at Rs 849 crore, up 24% versus Rs 686 crore in Q3FY25.
Also read: SBI block deal: BNP Paribas buys 5.28 lakh shares in a Rs 64 crore transaction

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

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Shooting Near University Leaves One Seriously Injured

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Rollins Hall along the Williamsburg Lawn

A man suffered life-threatening injuries in a shooting Saturday evening in Norfolk near Old Dominion University, heightening unease among students already on edge from prior incidents in the area.

Rollins Hall along the Williamsburg Lawn
Rollins Hall along the Williamsburg Lawn

Norfolk Police responded around 6 p.m. Feb. 14, 2026, to the 800 block of West 41st Street after reports of gunfire. Officers found a male victim with a serious gunshot wound. He was rushed to Sentara Norfolk General Hospital, where he remained in critical condition as of the latest updates. No arrests have been announced, and the investigation continues with no suspect description released publicly.

The location, just blocks from ODU’s campus and student housing, sparked immediate concern among nearby residents and students. Witnesses described hearing multiple shots before chaos ensued. One ODU student, Madeleine Salazer, told WAVY News the violence felt “unfortunately very common” in parts of Norfolk, though she noted her neighborhood had been relatively quiet until recently.

“I’ve been out here since 2023. It’s been an eventful time,” Salazer said. “Things like this are unfortunately very common in the Norfolk area. Not on this neighborhood, I will say, but if you go two blocks down the street on 42nd, there was a shooting there my freshman year.”

Students interviewed by local media expressed frustration and fear, calling for better community-police relations and university measures to address off-campus risks. The incident follows a pattern of gun violence in Norfolk, including a February 2025 double homicide on ODU property that claimed the lives of two non-students and led to charges against a suspect.

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In that earlier case, on Feb. 26, 2025, two Norfolk men—18-year-old Delanio Vick Jr. and 20-year-old Timothy Williams Jr.—were fatally shot in parking lot L-3 near Broderick Dining Commons around 9:50 p.m. Norfolk Police and ODU officers responded quickly, but both victims succumbed to their injuries at the hospital. Neither was affiliated with the university.

Dequan J. Tyler, 27, of Norfolk and uncle to Vick, was later charged with possession of a firearm by a felon in connection with the shooting. Tyler, held without bond in Chesapeake, told WTKR News 3 from jail that he fired shots to protect family but was unsure if he struck anyone. The case drew scrutiny over campus safety protocols and the university’s response.

Old Dominion University President Brian Hemphill issued a statement after the 2025 incident expressing sympathy while noting the victims were not affiliated with ODU, a phrasing that drew criticism from students and alumni for appearing to distance the school from the tragedy. Hemphill praised campus police efforts, but some in the community questioned prevention measures amid recurring violence near campus.

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The 2026 shooting prompted renewed calls for vigilance. ODU officials have not issued a new campus-wide alert specific to the Feb. 14 event, but university police maintain regular patrols and encourage the use of the Rave Guardian safety app for emergencies. Students reported feeling “on edge,” with some avoiding late-night walks and relying on rideshares or group travel.

Norfolk’s broader gun violence trends contribute to the tension. The city has seen multiple shootings in recent months, including incidents wounding multiple people near campus-adjacent areas. Police urge anyone with information on the latest shooting to contact Crime Line at 1-888-LOCK-U-UP or submit tips anonymously online.

University leaders emphasize that ODU remains committed to student safety through partnerships with Norfolk Police, enhanced lighting, emergency blue phones, and awareness campaigns. However, off-campus incidents highlight challenges in controlling risks in surrounding neighborhoods where many students live.

The Feb. 14 victim’s condition underscores the severity of such events. Hospital officials have not released further details, citing privacy laws. Investigators continue canvassing for witnesses and reviewing surveillance footage from nearby businesses and residences.

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As Norfolk grapples with persistent community violence, the shooting near ODU serves as a stark reminder of safety concerns for students far from home. University officials and local authorities stress the importance of reporting suspicious activity and utilizing available resources to foster a secure environment.

For now, the investigation remains active, with hopes that leads will bring resolution and prevent further escalation in an area already shaken by tragedy.

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Deere, Caterpillar and 10 Other Stocks for an AI-Infused Blue Collar Renaissance

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Deere, Caterpillar and 10 Other Stocks for an AI-Infused Blue Collar Renaissance

Deere, Caterpillar and 10 Other Stocks for an AI-Infused Blue Collar Renaissance

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