Mumbai: Proprietary trading desks are bracing for challenging times as the Reserve Bank of India‘s new rules requiring banks to collect 100% collateral against bank guarantees (BGs), effective July 1 is seen increasing funding costs and squeezing profitability.

These firms, which trade with their own capital, use a bank guarantee to put them as collateral with exchanges or clearing corporations for margins. It allows them to meet part of that collateral requirement without parking the equivalent amount of cash with the clearing corporation.

The new framework requires bank financing to capital market intermediaries for proprietary trading to be backed by 100% collateral. Before July 1, proprietary traders could obtain bank guarantees by providing margins covering about 50% of the guaranteed amount. The higher funding costs could not just impact these firms but also trading volumes, industry participants said.

“This is likely to have a dual effect of raising impact costs and reducing trading volumes,” said Ketan Marwadi, managing director, Marwadi Shares and Finance.

Marwadi said volumes have already started declining since the circular was introduced, and some traders have been laid off in anticipation of these norms.

Proprietary traders accounted for 34.3% of cash market turnover and 27.9% and 49% of futures and options volumes, respectively, as of May 30, according to the NSE Market Pulse report.
The RBI issued the circular in February and had initially planned to implement it from April 1 before deferring it to July 1.Since March this year, the share of proprietary traders across the NSE’s cash, futures and options segments has declined marginally. Proprietary firms could access bank guarantees at a commission of roughly 1% per annum, said Amit Khurana, Group CEO at Dolat Capital.

Under the new regime, if they go to NBFCs for funding at 10-11% interest and park those funds in bank fixed deposits, the net cost rises to about 4-5% after adjusting for the 6% earned on the deposit.

“In effect, the new framework could raise trading costs for prop firms by 300-500 basis points,” said Khurana. “For props that were earlier generating post-tax returns in the high single digits, that could compress returns into the mid-single digit range.”

Several proprietary trading firms are expected to approach the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) to seek a review of their regulatory treatment to soften the impact of the new funding framework. In addition to NBFCs, prop trading firms could also tap commercial papers (CPs), debentures and market-linked debentures (MLDs) to meet their financing needs, though these alternatives are significantly more expensive.

Mumbai: For years, the debate has been whether staying fully invested in equities is the best way to build long-term wealth. A growing number of money managers and wealth advisors now argue that mixing equities with debt may offer a better balance between returns and volatility.

A study by WhiteOak Capital Mutual Fund showed that a portfolio with 70% equity and 30% debt, which is rebalanced whenever the equity allocation falls below 65% or rises above 80%, generated an annualised return of 14.3% over 20 years with a standard deviation-a measure of how volatile an investment’s returns are – of 14.4%. In comparison, the Nifty 500 Total Returns Index (TRI) returned 14.1% annually, but with a standard deviation of 20.1%, indicating higher volatility.

The study allocated the equity portion to the Nifty 500 Multicap 50:25:25 TRI and the debt component to the Nifty 5-Year Benchmark G-Sec Index. The investment portfolio also outperformed over both three- and five-year periods, delivering annualised returns of 13.6% each as against the Nifty 500 TRI’s 13.0% and 13.1%, respectively.

“History has shown that a well-diversified portfolio comprising both equity and debt has the potential to deliver a more balanced investment experience than an allocation solely to either asset class,” said Mitul Kalawadia, senior fund manager at ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund.

Sharp market corrections often test investors’ resolve, prompting many to exit early. By combining equity with debt, it would be easier for investors to stay put through market cycles. Investors looking for a product could consider aggressive hybrid funds

“The category also benefits from disciplined asset allocation through periodic rebalancing, which naturally follows a buy-low, sell-high approach,” said Kirti Dalvi, fund manager at Mahindra Manulife Mutual Fund.
Despite the debt allocation, investors cannot entirely rule out sharp swings in returns in this product”While the debt allocation provides a downside cushion, these schemes have 65-80% equity and therefore remain meaningfully influenced by equity market movements,” said Aditya Agarwal, co-founder of Wealthy.in. He recommends investing through a staggered approach to reduce timing risk and soften the impact of short-term market volatility.

ET Intelligence Group: Shares of Astral, a manufacturer of plumbing products and construction chemicals, have fallen 11% since Monday after the company announced plans to demerge its chemicals business from the core plumbing operations. The fall can be attributed to uncertainty over the standalone valuation and growth prospects of the demerged entity. At present, the chemicals business generates lower margin and slower revenue growth compared with the plumbing segment. Analysts have reduced target prices by 5-9%.

On June 25, Astral announced plans to demerge the adhesives, paints and construction chemicals business into a separately listed company, while retaining its plumbing business in the existing listed entity.

“Adhesive plus paint business valuations will be the tricky part as how much discount it gets versus listed peers is difficult to comprehend,” said Equirus Securities in a report, adding that the smaller scale of this business makes it difficult to estimate the multiple it will command after the demerger.

The plumbing business has increasingly become Astral’s earnings and cash-flow engine with its Profit Before Interest and Tax (PBIT) rising to ₹686.9 crore in FY26 from ₹605.4 crore in FY24. On the contrary, PBIT of the chemicals business declined to ₹103.4 crore from ₹139.6 crore. As a result, the plumbing division’s contribution to the total PBIT increased to nearly 87% from about 81% during the period.
In FY26, the plumbing business contributed around 71% of the total ₹6,569 crore revenue. Brokerages have retained their ‘buy’ ratings on Astral, although some have cut their target prices by 5-9% following the demerger announcement.

Management expects revenue from the chemical business to grow to ₹4,400-5,000 crore over the next four to five years from ₹1,861 crore in FY26, implying an annual growth rate of 19-22%. The company will disclose separate Profit and Loss statements and balance sheets for both entities along with the June quarter of FY27 results.
“We expect the creation of a separate entity to lead to some cost increases, along with potential operational disruptions during the demerger process,” stated HDFC Securities in a report. The broker maintained a ‘buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of ₹1,740. The stock closed Thursday’s session at ₹1,364.6 on the BSE.

SpaceX shares stabilized Thursday after recovering from a sharp intraday drop Wednesday, with the stock edging higher as investors focused on the company’s imminent entry into the Nasdaq-100 index on Monday rather than dwelling on the whipsaw created when founder and chief executive Elon Musk denied a Wall Street Journal report suggesting SpaceX had built a prototype artificial intelligence device using Qualcomm’s Snapdragon chips.

Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp., trading under the ticker SPCX, were at $159.23 as of 10:39 a.m. EDT, up $1.69, or 1.07%, on the day. The gain follows a wild Wednesday session during which the stock initially surged on the WSJ report that SpaceX was developing a smartphone-like AI device featuring Snapdragon chips before Musk flatly denied the story on his social media platform X, calling it “utterly false” and sending the stock down roughly 7% to close at $157.54. Thursday’s tentative recovery reflects investors refocusing on the company’s Nasdaq-100 inclusion, now just three business days away.

Nasdaq officially confirmed that SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq-100 index before the market opens on Monday, July 7, just 25 days after the company completed its initial public offering on June 12. That timeline makes SpaceX one of the fastest companies ever added to the benchmark index following a public market debut, a distinction made possible by a Nasdaq rule change implemented in May that shortened the waiting period for newly listed companies from several months to just 15 days, provided the company ranks among the top 40 Nasdaq-100 constituents by market capitalization. Given SpaceX’s market capitalization of approximately $2.25 trillion as of Thursday, it qualified easily.

Analysts at BNP Paribas have estimated that the Nasdaq-100 inclusion alone could generate approximately $4.3 billion in passive buying from index funds and exchange-traded products that are legally required to hold SpaceX shares in proportion to its index weighting once it enters the benchmark. The QQQ fund, the most heavily traded ETF tracking the Nasdaq-100, will be among the vehicles required to purchase SPCX shares, and the forced mechanical buying associated with index inclusion events has historically provided meaningful short-term price support for newly added companies regardless of their immediate fundamental performance.

In a separate development that could add additional forced demand, SpaceX may also eventually enter Russell 1000 and other FTSE Russell benchmark indexes, a separate process from the Nasdaq inclusion that would trigger another round of index-tracking purchases. That potential additional demand has been cited by some analysts as a further tailwind for the stock’s post-inclusion trading dynamics.

The Wedbush analyst team, which has been among the most prominently bullish voices on SpaceX since the IPO, maintained an Outperform rating and a $190 price target on the stock this week, framing the company as an AI-driven infrastructure play rather than simply a rocket and satellite company. The firm’s analysis emphasized SpaceX’s position at the intersection of three major structural technology trends, including satellite connectivity, launch vehicle economics and artificial intelligence, and described the stock as one of the most compelling long-term holdings available to investors seeking exposure to all three simultaneously.

Daiwa Securities initiated coverage of SpaceX Thursday morning with a Neutral rating, adding a relatively cautious voice to the analyst community even as the broader consensus remains skewed toward Buy. According to data from Investing.com, seven of the eight analysts currently covering SpaceX recommend buying the stock, with one recommending selling, and the average 12-month price target sits at $188.17 per share, implying upside of roughly 18% from Thursday’s trading levels. The high estimate of $310 and the low of $62 reflect the extraordinary spread of opinion surrounding a company that went public just three weeks ago and whose valuation remains deeply unsettled across the professional investor community.

Much of that valuation debate centers on three distinct business segments that SpaceX has consolidated under a single public entity. The Connectivity segment, built around Starlink’s satellite broadband network, is the most immediately visible and financially productive of the three, generating $11.4 billion in revenue and roughly $4.4 billion in operating profit in 2025, with approximately 10.3 million subscribers as of the end of March. The Space segment encompasses the company’s rocket launch operations, including Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and the still-developing Starship system, while the AI segment, formed around the early 2026 acquisition of xAI from Musk himself, brings the Grok large language model, the Colossus gigawatt-scale data center and the social platform X under the SpaceX corporate umbrella.

SpaceX also announced this week that it is offering discounts to Starlink customers in the Memphis, Tennessee, area, according to a Bloomberg report, a move consistent with a broader strategy of using pricing flexibility to accelerate subscriber growth in markets where internet service provider competition is particularly intense. Analysts following the company have pointed to the U.S. consumer and enterprise subscriber market as an underappreciated growth vector given how much of the current Starlink narrative centers on international and rural deployment.

On the litigation front, Musk and OpenAI chief Sam Altman were reported Thursday to be heading toward mediation in their ongoing legal dispute, a development that could eventually clarify a complicated set of legal relationships involving Musk, xAI, SpaceX and OpenAI that have raised governance questions about potential conflicts of interest among the various technology ventures Musk oversees.

The stock’s current position, roughly 29% below its all-time intraday high of $225.64 reached on June 16 but still above its IPO price of $135 and meaningfully above its all-time closing low of $147.11 hit on June 23, reflects an ongoing process of price discovery for a company that has attracted both extraordinary enthusiasm and substantial skepticism from market participants attempting to determine what one of the most complex and ambitious technology businesses ever taken public is actually worth at this stage of its development.

Crude oil prices stayed under pressure on Friday as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover and diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran showed signs of progress. Brent crude is also headed for a fourth straight weekly decline, its longest losing streak since August 2024

Crude oil price on July 3

Brent crude hovered near the $71-a-barrel mark after briefly dipping below that level in the previous session, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded around $68 a barrel.

The commodity has retreated sharply from the $125-a-barrel highs touched during the peak of the Gulf conflict, as higher output from regional producers and improved supply expectations followed the preliminary memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by the US and Iran in mid-June.

Saudi Arabia, the region’s largest oil producer, has restored exports to roughly 90 percent of pre-conflict levels for most of this week. A significant share of the kingdom’s crude shipments passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking to CNBC, US President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were still underway and claimed that Tehran “has agreed to just about everything we need.” However, the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran remains unwilling to abandon its demand for control over the Strait of Hormuz and intends to continue charging transit tolls after the 60-day deadline expires.

Supply has increased not only from Saudi Arabia but also from the United Arab Emirates, which is no longer an OPEC member, and from Iran after it secured sanctions relief under the terms of the preliminary MoU.
Read more: Crude oil correction could be India’s next big market trigger: Rohit Seksaria

Worst over?

Macquarie Group has sharply lowered its oil price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing expectations of a quicker-than-anticipated normalization of crude flows from the Middle East. Following the interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran, which has allowed oil shipments to resume from the Persian Gulf, the bank now expects brent crude, the global benchmark, to average $77 a barrel in 2026, down from its earlier forecast of $89. It also cut its 2027 Brent outlook to $64 a barrel from $74 previously.
Despite several challenges that could slow the recovery in regional oil production, producers in the Middle East are likely to restore output faster than markets currently anticipate, strategists Peter Taylor, Vikas Dwivedi and others said in a research note.
Tanker movement through the strait has started improving, with U.S. Vice President JD Vance said oil flows had returned to pre-war levels, although he did not provide any figures.

Others argue that despite the improvement, a complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to take time, say experts. It will require coordination of vessel movements, restarting oil wells, repairing damaged infrastructure and agreements on de-mining operations. Some shipowners also remain cautious about operating in the strait and the wider Persian Gulf.

Analysts said global oil inventories were depleted during the prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and will take time to rebuild. They added that stockpiles could continue to decline before additional supplies from the Gulf start reaching international markets.

Last month, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser warned that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could delay the return of stability to global oil markets until 2027. He said prolonged interruptions could affect nearly 100 million barrels of oil supply every week. Saudi Aramco is the world’s largest oil producer.

Also read: India’s next stock market headache isn’t oil but a bigger storm brewing in the skies

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Focusrite plc investor presentation. [Operator Instructions].

Before we begin, I’d like to submit the following poll. I’d now like to play a short video on behalf of the company.

[Presentation]

Operator

I’d now like to hand you over to Tim Carroll, CEO. Good morning, sir.

Timothy Carroll
CEO & Executive Director

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I hope you enjoyed that intro video. It’s just a little snapshot of a lot of the amazing products and some of the big installations that we’ve done over this period of time. Sally and myself are here, and we’re very excited to be sharing with you our results for this full 18 months. So we know there’s a lot to unpack on here, so we’re going to jump right in on here.

Here’s a little bit about what we’re going to be going over today on here. And as we go through this, you’re going to see some reoccurring themes that I want to take you through at the very top of this. There’s a lot of information, obviously to go through on here. But I’m hoping that if anything, if you walk away with sort of these 3 bullet points that we’re going to talk about in just a moment here, and we have a lot of to kind of back this up and talk about how these really relate to our performance and how we’re going, if you will.

So again, the big takeaways on here is a resilient performance in line with expectations. So I think this is a really important one

Bitcoin rose more than 2.8% to trade around $61,658 on Thursday, extending a tentative recovery as cryptocurrency investors weighed mixed signals from institutional flows and broader market sentiment heading into the second half of 2026.

The world’s largest digital asset has experienced significant volatility this year, pulling back from earlier highs near $90,000 and testing lower supports amid periodic outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Thursday’s gains helped lift the cryptocurrency off recent lows, reflecting renewed buying interest as some traders bet on stabilization.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen substantial activity throughout 2026, with periods of strong inflows followed by notable outflows. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust and other major funds have attracted billions in assets since their launch, marking a structural shift toward greater institutional participation even as net flows turned negative in recent months.

Analysts note that ETF outflows in June reached record levels for some periods, contributing to downward pressure on prices. However, longer-term observers point to growing corporate and institutional adoption as a counterbalance, with companies and funds continuing to allocate to Bitcoin as a store of value.

Post-Halving Dynamics and Market Cycle

The April 2024 halving, which reduced the reward for Bitcoin miners by half, continues to influence supply dynamics. Historically, such events have preceded bull runs, though the impact appears more muted this cycle due to larger overall market capitalization and institutional involvement.

Bitcoin’s price action in 2026 has deviated from strict adherence to the traditional four-year cycle, with macroeconomic factors, regulatory developments and ETF mechanics playing larger roles. After reaching peaks above $90,000 earlier in the year, the asset corrected amid broader risk-off sentiment in global markets before showing signs of bottoming.

Technical analysts have highlighted support levels near $58,000, with recent trading testing these zones. A sustained move above key resistance could signal further upside, while failure to hold supports might invite additional selling.

Institutional demand remains a key theme. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated tens of billions in assets, providing easier access for traditional investors. While outflows have dominated headlines at times, inflows during stronger periods underscore persistent interest from asset managers.

Corporate treasuries, led by examples like MicroStrategy, have also bolstered holdings, treating Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. This behavior has added a layer of demand less sensitive to short-term price swings.

Regulatory and Macro Influences

The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies has evolved, with clearer frameworks in some jurisdictions supporting innovation while others maintain caution. U.S. policy shifts, including potential changes in taxation and oversight, continue to influence investor sentiment.

Broader macroeconomic conditions, including interest rate expectations and inflation trends, have weighed on risk assets. Bitcoin’s correlation with technology stocks and growth-oriented investments has increased, tying its performance more closely to traditional markets at times.

Geopolitical developments and global liquidity conditions also factor into price movements. As central banks navigate policy decisions, Bitcoin’s narrative as “digital gold” — a hedge against fiat currency debasement — has resonated with some long-term holders.

Market participants anticipate potential catalysts in the coming months, including further ETF product developments, potential corporate announcements and advancements in blockchain technology. The upcoming U.S. political cycle could introduce additional variables around crypto-friendly policies.

Technical Outlook and Volatility

Bitcoin’s price has demonstrated resilience, bouncing from multi-month lows. Trading volume and open interest in futures markets provide mixed signals, with some metrics indicating capitulation among weaker hands and positioning for a potential rebound.

Options markets reflect uncertainty, pricing in possibilities of both sharp declines and rallies. Volatility remains elevated compared to traditional assets, consistent with Bitcoin’s history as a high-beta investment.

Analysts offer a wide range of forecasts for the remainder of 2026 and beyond. Conservative estimates see consolidation around current levels or modest gains, while bullish projections point toward new highs driven by adoption and scarcity. Average predictions often cluster in the $70,000 to $100,000 range by year-end, though outcomes depend on multiple variables.

Short-term traders focus on immediate supports and resistances, while long-term investors emphasize network fundamentals such as hash rate, active addresses and developer activity. Bitcoin’s underlying blockchain has maintained high security and uptime, reinforcing confidence in its decentralized architecture.

Adoption Trends and Ecosystem Growth

Beyond price speculation, Bitcoin’s utility and adoption continue to expand. Lightning Network developments aim to improve transaction speeds and reduce costs for everyday use. Institutional custody solutions and payment integrations have grown, facilitating greater real-world application.

The ecosystem around Bitcoin, including decentralized finance protocols and non-fungible token activity on related layers, adds to overall interest. While Bitcoin itself primarily serves as a store of value, its dominance influences the broader cryptocurrency market.

Environmental considerations around mining have prompted shifts toward sustainable energy sources, with many operations reporting increased use of renewables. This evolution addresses criticism and aligns with broader ESG trends among investors.

Challenges persist, including scalability debates, regulatory uncertainty and competition from alternative cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin’s first-mover advantage and network effects have helped it maintain market leadership, with over 50% dominance in total crypto market capitalization during many periods.

Investor Sentiment and Risks

Sentiment indicators have fluctuated, with fear and greed indexes moving between extremes. Social media discussion and search trends often amplify price movements, creating feedback loops characteristic of the asset class.

Risks for Bitcoin investors include sharp drawdowns, regulatory crackdowns, technological disruptions and macroeconomic shocks. Diversification, long-term horizons and risk management remain standard advice from market observers.

Despite volatility, Bitcoin has delivered substantial returns over multi-year periods for early adopters. Its fixed supply cap of 21 million coins underpins scarcity arguments, particularly as more coins become effectively lost or illiquid over time.

As global adoption grows, with more countries and institutions exploring digital assets, Bitcoin’s role in the financial system may evolve further. Central bank digital currencies and blockchain pilots by traditional finance players could either complement or compete with decentralized alternatives.

Thursday’s price increase comes as markets digest recent economic data and anticipate corporate earnings seasons that could influence risk appetite. With Bitcoin’s correlation to equities remaining relevant, positive developments in technology and growth sectors may provide tailwinds.

Longer-term, the interplay between supply halvings, demand from new investor cohorts and technological maturation will shape Bitcoin’s trajectory. While short-term trading remains unpredictable, the asset’s underlying properties continue to attract a dedicated base of supporters who view it as a transformative innovation in money and finance.

Bitcoin’s journey reflects both the opportunities and pitfalls of emerging asset classes. As it matures, balancing innovation with stability will be crucial for broader acceptance. For now, participants remain focused on the next catalysts that could drive the market into its next phase.