Business
War crisis revives stagflation dangers for global economy
Whether the twin blows affecting growth and inflation seen in purchasing manager indexes after the first month of the Iran conflict intensified during month two will be a key focus.
The initial take for April in economies from Australia to the US will be published on Thursday. Among those covered by Bloomberg forecasts, indexes in Germany, France, the euro zone and the UK are all anticipated to show broad deterioration, while the American indicators are seen little changed.
Ultimately, the numbers may point to the degree that stagflation is lurking. That ominous term – evoking the noxious mix of surging prices and stalling growth of the 1970s – was cited by Chris Williamson, chief business economist at PMI-compiler S&P Global, when summing up risks highlighted by the overall global measure in March.
The survey numbers follow a week of bleak stock-taking in Washington, where finance chiefs were warned by the International Monetary Fund of a range of potential outcomes that included a near-recession for the world. Notwithstanding the current Middle East ceasefire, the damage to growth and inflation can’t be easily undone.
“Even if the war ends tomorrow, it would take quite some time for the recovery to kick in,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Bloomberg Television. “The impact is already baked in.”
For all the gloom, multiple policymakers remain cautious about how to respond. European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane described how he and his colleagues may treat reports such as the PMIs when they set interest rates later this month.”We will have a rich set of survey data,” Lane said in Washington. “Of course, the people who are answering those surveys are looking at the same world we are looking at.” And for now, not many will have a decisive idea about what’s going to happen, he added.
ECB officials will also get French business confidence on Thursday and Germany’s closely watched Ifo business climate gauge on Friday. Their Federal Reserve peers will see the University of Michigan’s sentiment index, also at the end of the week.
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High gas prices continue to squeeze small businesses across the U.S., but cutting one costly habit could help owners save significantly.
New data from Ford Pro, the commercial vehicle division of Ford Motor Company, shows that unnecessary idling — leaving a car running while parked — can cost fleet operators thousands of dollars each year, cutting directly into margins at a time when fuel prices remain high.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, the average fleet vehicle idles between one and two hours per day, burning up to two gallons of fuel daily per vehicle. With gas prices rising, those costs can add up quickly.
As of Sunday, the national average price for unleaded gas stood at $4.04, up from $3.88 just a month ago, according to AAA.
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Ford Motor Co. F-150 pickup trucks are displayed at a car dealership in Orland Park, Illinois, on Sept. 27, 2019. (Daniel Acker/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
“You can burn up one to two gallons of gas just doing that,” Matt Krukin, who leads software and digital growth for Ford Pro, told FOX Business. “So if that happens per day… that’s $8 a day that’s idling.”
For businesses operating multiple vehicles, the impact can be substantial. A 20-vehicle fleet idling for two hours a day could waste more than $160 in fuel every day, according to Ford Pro.
Excessive idling is particularly common in North America, where about 29% of fleet vehicles idle unnecessarily, compared to just 10% in Europe, Krukin noted.
To help address the issue, Ford Pro is investing in software and data-driven tools.
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A person pumps gas into a car. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images / Getty Images)
Its newly launched artificial intelligence (AI) assistant allows fleet managers to monitor vehicle behavior in real time, identify inefficiencies and coach drivers to adopt more fuel-efficient habits.
Ford Pro says customers using these tools have seen measurable improvements, including a 52% reduction in idling.
While reducing idling is one of the simplest ways to cut costs, other driving behaviors — such as aggressive acceleration, rapid braking, and speeding — can also increase fuel consumption and wear on vehicles, according to Krukin.
The system can even limit acceleration, while in-cab alerts provide real-time feedback.
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Cars are seen driving on the highway. (Jonas Walzberg/picture alliance via Getty Images / Getty Images)
“It’s like the fleet manager’s right next to them to coach them along the way,” Krukin said.
Users have also seen a 25% drop in speeding, a 16% decrease in hard braking and an 11% reduction in harsh acceleration, according to Ford Pro.
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“We’re not just recommending solutions for the heck of it,” Krukin said. “… At the end of the day, it’s really about bringing it all together, so that these fleets actually get a pleasurable experience with the tools and technology coming together.”
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