Thailand’s Baht weakens despite portfolio inflows. A record USD 10.0 billion April trade deficit, driven by strong imports, pressures the Baht. Authorities warn of continued weakness if imports remain high, even with AI export growth.

Key Points

• USD/THB fell to 32.55 despite Thailand’s record April trade deficit of USD10.0bn, driven by portfolio inflows.
• Authorities cautioned that persistent strong imports could pressure the Baht, which has already depreciated 3.2% year-to-date.
• Factors like higher oil prices and strong USD demand are contributing to the Baht’s weakness, overshadowing AI-related export growth.

Record Trade Deficit Impacts Baht

Commerzbank’s FX analysts note that the USD/THB exchange rate experienced a decline to 32.55, primarily attributed to portfolio inflows. This movement occurred despite Thailand’s April trade deficit widening significantly to a record USD10.0 billion. This substantial deficit, considerably exceeding the Bloomberg consensus of USD5.3 billion, represents the seventh consecutive monthly deficit and marks the largest on record. The widening gap between imports and exports is a key concern for the Thai currency’s stability in the coming period.

Import Strength Fuels Baht Pressure

The Director-General of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, Nantapong Chiralerspong, has issued a warning regarding sustained pressure on the Thai Baht (THB). This pressure is directly linked to the persistence of strong import levels, which are contributing to the widening trade deficit. While the government maintains a base-case forecast for export growth at 3% for the year, with potential ranges from -3% to +8%, the current import dynamics pose a significant challenge. The Baht has already seen a year-to-date depreciation of 3.2% against the US Dollar, even with growth in AI-related exports.

Global Factors and Baht Weakness

Beyond domestic trade imbalances, external factors are also exerting downward pressure on the Thai Baht. Since mid-April, the currency has demonstrated a steady weakening trend, influenced by higher global oil prices and a robust demand for the US Dollar. This combination of factors, including the record trade deficit and global economic influences, underscores the multi-faceted challenges facing the THB. Despite some positive export segments, the overall economic picture suggests continued vulnerability for the Thai currency.

Source : Thai Baht: Pressured by record deficit against US Dollar – Commerzbank

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Of course, it’s an uneven picture across the country. Some town centres appear to be thriving, and in those places you won’t notice much visible sign of criminality – though the NCA did find organised High Street crime gangs in every part of the UK during an operation last year. Research from the Centre for Cities points to Cambridge, York, Edinburgh and Manchester as relative success stories. But this reflects another problem: inequality, because it tends to be places that are already wealthier that have less High Street crime. Towns that are already struggling, meanwhile, are the ones that attract money-laundering gangs.

Walmart CEO John Furner said Wednesday that rising fuel costs are placing increasing pressure on consumers, with lower-income households showing growing signs of financial strain.

Speaking to reporters during Walmart’s shareholder week in Bentonville, Arkansas, Furner said the retailer continues to attract higher-income shoppers, who are visiting stores more frequently and spending more. At the same time, Walmart is seeing evidence that lower-income customers are becoming more cautious with their spending.

“We do continue to see the higher-income customers coming to Walmart,” Furner said. “We’re meeting more of them, they’re buying more, they’re coming more frequently. … And then we’ve seen some more signs of stress at the lower income levels.”

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Walmart CEO John Furner (right) and Dan Bartlett, executive vice president, Corporate Affairs, Walmart Inc., speak at the Walmart headquarters in Bentonville, Arkansas, on Wednesday, June 3, 2026. (FOX Business)

One indicator comes from Walmart-owned Sam’s Club. According to Furner, Sam’s Club members are averaging about 9.8 gallons per fuel purchase, while filling up more often, suggesting shoppers are managing their budgets as gas prices remain elevated.

“That’s really the stress point — is the price of fuel,” Furner said.

Despite those challenges, Furner said Walmart remains well-positioned to serve customers through its broad merchandise assortment and low-price strategy.

“Walmart’s set up really well in any kind of economy,” he noted.

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Customers shop at a Walmart store on May 13, 2026, in Chicago, Illinois.  (Scott Olson/Getty Images / Getty Images)

During the most recent quarter, the retailer rolled back prices on roughly 7,200 items, an increase from a year ago.

“I think we’ve done a really good job keeping our prices low in the quarter,” Furner said. “We had 7,200 rollbacks, that’s up from a year ago. We did that while maintaining and growing our gross margin.”

The comments came during Walmart’s annual shareholder week, which draws executives, investors and media to Northwest Arkansas each year.

U.S. consumer confidence dipped slightly in May as concerns about rising gas prices and inflation outweighed growing optimism about the labor market, according to Reuters. The reading, however, came in above economists’ expectations, providing some balance to the otherwise cautious consumer outlook.

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An “Associates Week” sign is displayed at a Sam’s Club store in Bentonville, Arkansas, on Wednesday, June 3, 2026. (FOX Business / Fox News)

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Last month, Walmart warned that higher fuel costs could add pressure on shoppers, particularly as the temporary boost from tax refunds fades and inflation continues to outpace wage growth.

“I think higher tax returns muted some of the pressure related to higher fuel prices and as we’re in a period of time right now where those tax refunds are largely not coming in, I think consumers are going to feel more of that pressure from higher fuel prices,” Walmart CFO John David Rainey told CNBC following the company’s first-quarter earnings report.

“It’s something that we’re keeping a close eye on,” he added.

FOX Business’ Kristen Altus and Reuters contributed to this report.