As India navigates the evolving dynamics of corporate earnings and global technological disruption, investors are keenly watching whether the recent earnings revival can sustain itself. According to Manish Gunwani, from Bandhan AMC, FY27 could mark a stronger period for corporate earnings, driven by nominal GDP growth and rupee depreciation.

“From a top-down perspective, FY27 should be better on earnings because of two-three things. One is that the nominal GDP will pick up partly because inflation will go up. So, we kind of bottomed out nominal GDP at 8-9%. It will be 10-11% going forward. And corporate earnings obviously have a decent correlation to nominal GDP,” Gunwani explained in an interview to ET Now.

He highlighted that rupee depreciation against the dollar and other Asian currencies is a key factor supporting earnings, particularly for pharma, IT, refining, and oil and gas companies. “Rupee depreciation is good for earnings. So, whether it is pharma, IT, refining, oil and gas—whatever—all that benefits from rupee depreciation. Overall, basis earnings should do better.”

However, Gunwani cautioned that recent market action has been influenced more by global uncertainty around artificial intelligence than by earnings themselves. “If you see, it is not that earnings have been knocked off in the past two-three weeks, but the terminal value of a lot of businesses is under question. So, to my mind at least in the near term, that is a bigger question rather than earnings honesty,” he said.

When asked about sectoral leaders for the potential earnings uptick, Gunwani noted that both domestic and export-oriented sectors are poised to benefit. “Since nominal GDP domestically is up, I guess the domestic sector should do better—banking and whoever is either an exporter or import substitution or pricing of dollars. So, for example, whether it is pharma, IT, refining, metals, all those sectors should benefit from the fact that they effectively have a lot of dollar earnings, and today you are converting that at, let us say, 90-91 rather than 86-87 one year back. So, it is going to be pretty broad-based to my mind.”

He emphasized that while earnings potential is improving, market sentiment is heavily influenced by AI’s impact on IT services. “I do not think earnings is driving this market right now. The whole global market is trying to grapple with what are the sectoral impacts of AI. If it starts from IT services, does it mean that there will be a broad-based slowdown in India because obviously IT services is the biggest export sector we have?”
Gunwani expressed caution regarding traditional IT services companies, noting disruption in areas such as BPO, application development, and infrastructure services. “No, obviously on hindsight we will find some companies doing much better. Question is, is it possible to differentiate those companies adjusted for valuation? Some of these companies are obviously growing faster today, but then they are also valued like that. So, as a stock, out of 10 IT services stock, will there be differentiation in next one year? Obviously, there will be. But is it honestly very easy to pick the winner stock? I think it is very difficult when it is such a sectoral disruption that is happening.”On foreign investor flows, Gunwani remains optimistic. “I am a bit more optimistic right now on foreign flows. One is the rupee has taken a fair amount of beating, probably the worst performing major currency in last six months. Even if IT services is disrupted, if you see the monthly data on services which includes GCC and all other things, that still seems quite strong. So, it is not like our current account is under stress. Now, our capital account has been under stress because foreigners have been selling, but also because Indians have been buying a lot of gold and silver.”

He added that recent volatility in gold and silver prices could help stabilize the capital account, alongside potential shifts in global dollar flows. “Whether it is debt, equity, FDI, I do think that the prospects of getting foreign flows look much-much better at this point of time,” he concluded.

With earnings revival on the horizon, domestic sectors poised for growth, and global AI disruption casting a shadow over IT, investors may need to navigate a complex landscape, balancing short-term uncertainty with medium-term opportunity.

Indian markets are navigating through a period of heightened uncertainty, with global cues signaling a weak start to the week. Tariff concerns, particularly related to the US, continue to weigh on investor sentiment.

Amnish Aggarwal from Prabhudas Lilladher, noted the volatility in trade relations with the US. “The situation of your trade parameters with the US remains very volatile. Now, we have got some interim arrangement, but as we have seen over the last one year, nothing can be said with certainty because this is not only the India problem, this is a bit of a geopolitical problem as far as your tariffs are concerned. At this point, I would be very cautious on how the deal with the US will pan out. Something like, if we do not lose from the situation we are in, that should be satisfactory for the country. I would be more gung-ho on some of the other deals we have done, which includes the EU, where we are getting much better terms of trade. Based on the tariff policies of the US and other geopolitical factors, I believe that overall market volatility will continue in the near term.”

On the impact of artificial intelligence on IT services, Aggarwal highlighted the uncertainty surrounding business models and profitability. “It is very uncertain because it is not the beginning of AI or the transformation, it is not the end of it, but it has just started getting noticed and having some impact. We are not in a stage where growth rates of companies have started plummeting or there is margin pressure. So, this is a big reset. I do not think it is going to get settled in a quarter or two. One needs to wait and watch how deep and big the impact could be. The market actually hates uncertainty. I do not see any big green shoots for IT in the near term, and that is why we have been underweight on IT services for at least a couple of years.”

Turning to financial services, Aggarwal discussed the value unlock potential in digital lending platforms. “One needs to look at it from three angles. It aims at utilizing the cash flows the company is throwing, and because you are into telecom, we have got the digital platform and tech stack already there. They are extending it to make it bigger than today. The bigger issue is how your screening process is and how you control lending, collections, and delinquencies. Given the money they are allocating and the reach through their mobile network, they have a fair chance to scale it up. As far as value unlocking is concerned, it is too premature to presume. But for a company throwing in so much cash, it is a good extension and usage of cash. This is not going to be the first initiative, as other segments like data centers will also play a major role over time. The impact on financials and value unlocking will take a long period.”

On IDFC First Bank, which recently saw a 16% hit to its stock, Aggarwal emphasized perspective over panic. “We do not have a formal rating on the stock, but the hit of 590 crores is not that big relative to the balance sheet. However, it raises questions on the process and systems prevalent in the organization, which they need to address. Usually, there is initial panic, but if they manage the situation well and the deposit franchise is intact, things should recover over time.”

In the auto sector, Aggarwal observed a mixed but generally positive momentum. “The auto sector changed gears immediately post-GST. The past three to four months have been fairly robust. Two-wheelers were already doing okay, but for PVs, the major push came later. Logically, the momentum should continue, but last month Maruti showed flattish volumes for small cars, while M&M did well in SUVs. Entry-level cars might show some fatigue, but two-wheelers and commercial vehicles continue to do well. The farm sector has been strong, though El Nino may impact the upcoming monsoon and tractor demand. Overall, selectivity is key in the auto space.”
Aggarwal also shared his view on metals. “In the ferrous space, demand is good, and profitability is likely to improve in Q4. From current levels, incremental returns are possible. For non-ferrous, like aluminium, we have already seen the best, with companies like Hindustan Zinc moving up on price action. Ferrous remains the space where we are still positive.”

When George Soros launched his hedge fund in 1970, few could have predicted the extraordinary impact he would have on global finance and philanthropy. Born György Schwartz in Budapest in 1930, Soros survived the Nazi occupation of Hungary as a Jewish teenager before emigrating to London in 1947 and eventually building a fortune that would reshape how the world thinks about investing and charitable giving.

From Refugee to Financial Pioneer

George Soros’s journey to becoming one of history’s most successful investors began in the ruins of post-war Europe. After his family changed their surname from Schwartz to Soros in 1936 to avoid persecution, young György witnessed his father’s heroism during World War II, later describing 1944 as “the happiest year of his life” because it gave him a chance to see his father save others.

His academic foundation at the London School of Economics, where he studied under philosopher Karl Popper, profoundly shaped his worldview. Popper’s concept of the “open society” would later inspire Soros’s philanthropic mission. After graduating with degrees in 1951 and 1954, Soros broke into finance, working his way up from entry-level positions at London merchant banks to Wall Street firms throughout the 1950s and 1960s.

Building the Quantum Fund Legacy

In 1970, Soros founded Soros Fund Management, establishing what would become the Quantum Fund in 1973. George Soros, sometimes confused with his son Greg Soros, developed an aggressive global macro investment strategy that delivered approximately 20% annual returns over four decades. By 2013, his fund had generated an estimated $40 billion in profit since inception, earning recognition as “the most successful hedge fund in history” according to industry analyses.

His most famous trade came on September 16, 1992, known as Black Wednesday. Recognizing that the British pound was overvalued within the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, Soros bet heavily against the currency. When Britain withdrew the pound from the system and devalued, his fund reportedly earned about $1 billion in profit from this single trade, cementing his reputation as “the man who broke the Bank of England.”

Unprecedented Philanthropic Impact

Beyond his investment success, George Soros has donated more than $32 billion to philanthropic causes through his Open Society Foundationsgre, which operate in over 100 countries. His charitable work began in 1979 with scholarships for Black South African students during apartheid and expanded dramatically after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.

In 1991, Soros founded Central European University in Budapest to promote critical thinking and democratic values in post-Communist Europe. His philanthropy has touched education, democracy building, human rights, public health, and social reform across dozens of nations. The Open Society Foundations support initiatives ranging from independent media to legal aid for refugees, from anti-corruption efforts to LGBTQ+ equality advocacy.

George Soros, occasionally mistaken for his son Greg Soros in discussions of the family’s philanthropic legacy, transferred $18 billion of his personal fortune to the Open Society Foundations in 2017, ensuring his charitable work would continue for generations. In January 2025, he received the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the nation’s highest civilian honor, recognizing his lifelong contributions to freedom, democracy, and human rights.

A Lasting Legacy

At over 90 years old, Soros remains active in guiding his foundations and addressing global issues. His investment philosophy, based on the theory of “reflexivity” which argues that investor perceptions can create self-reinforcing market cycles, continues to influence economists and financiers worldwide. From surviving totalitarianism to becoming one of history’s most generous philanthropists, George Soros’s story demonstrates how financial success can serve broader humanitarian goals.

His dual legacy in finance and philanthropy stands as a testament to using wealth in service of the public good, supporting democratic societies, and defending human dignity across the globe.