Southeast Asia faces a complex web of interconnected risks, from economic downturns and job scarcity to geopolitical rivalries and the disruptive force of AI. The region’s diverse economies, from wealthy Singapore to poorer Myanmar, experience these challenges unevenly, forcing nations to balance immediate stability with long-term strategic autonomy.

Key Details

• Economic growth is uneven: While Singapore thrives, countries like Myanmar, Laos, and Brunei struggle with debt, inflation, and joblessness; even wealthy Singapore faces cost-of-living pressures.
• Geopolitical tensions are acute: ASEAN nations, heavily reliant on China for trade, are squeezed by U.S. tariffs (e.g., 46% on Vietnamese exports) and legal uncertainty after the 2026 U.S. Supreme Court ruling, forcing ad-hoc bilateral deals.
• AI adoption is accelerating but unequal: Major investments in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam contrast with low SME adoption (15% in Singapore); energy-intensive data centers risk massive emissions spikes (e.g., 7x in Malaysia by 2030).
• Risks reinforce each other: Trade shocks fuel inflation and unemployment; AI gains may widen inequality; supply chain shifts expose cybersecurity gaps; domestic politics limit fiscal flexibility.

While AI adoption promises growth, uneven implementation, energy constraints, and workforce displacement could exacerbate inequalities. Governments and businesses must adopt integrated, adaptive strategies, acknowledging that economic, geopolitical, and technological pressures are converging, demanding a coordinated, forward-looking response to navigate this volatile landscape.

There is growth but it’s not reaching everyone

Economic growth is a case in point. In the survey, the top three perceived risks in the region are economic downturn, lack of jobs or economic opportunity and inflation, reflecting a shared anxiety about how individuals will experience growth. The signs of stress are already visible.

In Thailand, growth forecasts have been revised downward due to trade uncertainty and high household debt. Meanwhile, Brunei is still trying to reduce its reliance on oil and gas, and Lao PDR faces serious debt pressures that limit room to manoeuvre.

Meanwhile, ageing demographics in Malaysia and Viet Nam are outpacing economic development, a challenge requiring different investments in productivity and skills.

AI Surge in the Region Sparks Opportunities Amid Growing Divides

Southeast Asian executives rank the risks from artificial intelligence (AI) adversely at fourth regionally, compared to 10th globally. There is also relatively higher concern about online harms and the risks posed by frontier technologies more broadly.

AI-driven growth initiatives are gaining momentum across the region. For instance, Microsoft has unveiled significant cloud and AI investment programs in Indonesia and Malaysia.

Qualcomm has launched an AI research and development center in Viet Nam. Meanwhile, Singapore’s Green Data Centre Roadmap positions computing capacity as a strategic national infrastructure, akin to how previous generations prioritized highways and ports.

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Oil prices staged a sharp rebound on Monday, rising more than 6% after plunging over 9% in the previous session, as tensions flared again around the Strait of Hormuz. The latest spike followed fresh accusations from both the U.S. and Iran, each blaming the other for violating the ceasefire by targeting ships over the weekend.

On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that American forces had seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to breach its blockade. Iran, in response, said it would not take part in a second round of peace talks, despite Trump’s warning of renewed airstrikes.

Crude oil price on April 20

Brent crude futures climbed $6.11, or 6.76%, to $96.49 a barrel by 2327 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose $6.53, or 7.79%, to $90.38 a barrel.Before the conflict, the strait accounted for roughly one-fifth of global oil supply. The war, now nearing two months, has severely disrupted these flows.

Market movements remain highly reactive to developments, with oil prices swinging on shifting signals from both sides rather than any clear improvement in supply conditions. The intermittent movement of vessels through the strait highlights the deep uncertainty surrounding the world’s most critical energy chokepoint. Even if tensions ease, a full recovery in oil flows is expected to take several months, experts warn.
On Saturday, Iran tightened its grip over the strait in response to the U.S. blockade, reportedly firing at several vessels and declaring the route closed. This came just hours after it had announced a temporary reopening during a 10-day ceasefire.

What are experts saying?

Brokerage firm Macquarie said that even if tensions cool, oil prices are likely to remain supported in the $85 to $90 range, with a gradual move towards $110 as supply through the Strait of Hormuz improves. It added that if disruptions persist through April, Brent crude could climb as high as $150 per barrel.

Analysts broadly believe crude may be entering a phase of structurally higher prices. With the ceasefire seen as temporary, a return to pre-war levels of $70 to $75 may take several months. In the near term, they expect prices to stay within a range of $80 to $85 on the downside and $95 to $100 on the upside.

Nuvama Institutional Equities cautioned that prolonged closure of the strait, which handles about 20 million barrels per day, could drive crude prices into the $110 to $150 range.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)