Business
Why this is not 2022 for the Euro
Ian Bezek is a former hedge fund analyst at Kerrisdale Capital. He has spent the decade living in Latin America, doing the boots-on-the ground research for investors interested in markets such as Mexico, Colombia, and Chile. He also specializes in high-quality compounders and growth stocks at reasonable prices in the US and other developed markets. Ian leads the investing group Ian’s Insider Corner. Features of the group include: the Weekend Digest which covers everything from new ideas to updates on current holdings and macro analysis, trade alerts, an active chat room, and direct access to Ian. Learn More.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week down for the fourth week in a row. That’s the longest weekly losing streak since 2023 for the Dow and last March for the S&P.
“The rapid evolution of market sentiment driven by war is creating a situation where we’re repricing risk across the financial spectrum,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
U.S. stocks declines accelerated into the close and oil prices edged higher Friday as the nearly three-week-old war in the Middle East showed no signs of winding down.
The three major stock benchmarks fell sharply, suffering a third day of losses, led by the Nasdaq composite, which dropped 2% and now stands about 9.5% below its record. All three major indexes fell for a fourth straight week, the first time that has happened for the Dow industrials since 2023.
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Rates traders are now considering that possibility, assigning a nearly 30% chance of at least one rate hike by October on Friday, up from just 6% a day earlier, according to CME Group data.
Government bonds extended their selloff on Friday, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury recently hitting 4.39%, according to Tradeweb, up from 4.281% a day earlier. The 2-year Treasury yield, which often rises and falls with investors’ expectations for short-term interest rates set by the Fed, jumped to 3.89% from 3.83% Thursday.
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Traders have increasingly bid up prices for longer-term oil supplies in response. Contracts for Dec. 2027 deliveries of Brent crude now run about $78 a barrel, up from less than $66 a month ago. While those figures don’t represent a price forecast, they signal how producers, consumers and traders are factoring in protracted risks from the war.
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