The 2026 midterm election cycle kicked off Tuesday with primaries in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas, delivering dramatic results in key Senate races and signaling voter preferences ahead of November’s battle for congressional control.

In Texas, the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history unfolded as incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 Republican runoff, while state Rep. James Talarico defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic contest. North Carolina voters nominated former Gov. Roy Cooper for Democrats and former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley for Republicans in an open Senate seat expected to be one of the cycle’s most competitive. In solidly Republican Arkansas, Sen. Tom Cotton easily won renomination, and Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders faced no primary opposition.

The March 3 contests marked the start of statewide primaries that will continue through September, with the general election set for Nov. 3. Turnout varied, but early voting and Election Day participation reflected high stakes in battleground and red states alike.

**Texas Senate Drama Dominates Headlines**

Texas provided the night’s biggest surprises. On the Republican side, Cornyn, seeking a fifth term, led with about 42% of the vote with most precincts reporting, narrowly ahead of Paxton at around 41%. U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt trailed with 13.5%. Neither secured a majority, forcing the runoff in late May — a test of establishment versus MAGA forces in the GOP. Cornyn positioned himself as a “workhorse” legislator, while Paxton, despite controversies, rallied conservative voters with hardline appeals.

The Democratic primary saw Talarico, a progressive state representative and seminarian from the Austin area, prevail over Crockett, a Dallas-area congresswoman known for her sharp rhetoric. Talarico captured about 53% to Crockett’s 46% in a race that grew personal and drew national attention. Democrats have not won a statewide office in Texas since the 1990s, but Talarico’s win sets up a long-shot challenge in November against the GOP nominee.

Other Texas highlights included the defeat of U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, a prominent Republican, by state Rep. Steve Toth in a district primary — the first incumbent House member ousted this cycle. Crenshaw, who lacked former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, fell in what analysts called a sign of party shifts. Gov. Greg Abbott cruised to renomination.

The Texas Senate race, fueled by over $122 million in ad spending, underscored divisions within the GOP and Democratic hopes for competitiveness in a red state.

**North Carolina Senate Race Sets Up November Showdown**

North Carolina’s open Senate seat — vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis — featured straightforward primary wins. Roy Cooper, the popular former two-term governor, dominated the Democratic field with over 90% of the vote. Michael Whatley, who chaired the RNC, secured the GOP nomination with around 65%.

The matchup promises intensity in a purple state where Democrats aim to flip the seat and influence Senate control. Cooper’s moderate record and name recognition contrast with Whatley’s party insider status. Redistricting shifted congressional maps, with Republicans targeting gains in districts like the 1st, where Laurie Buckhout won the GOP nod to challenge Democratic Rep. Don Davis. Some House primaries, including Valerie Foushee’s in the 4th District, saw competitive challenges from the left.

North Carolina’s results highlighted party unity heading into fall, with no major upsets.

**Arkansas Delivers Expected Incumbent Wins**

In deep-red Arkansas, outcomes aligned with expectations. Sen. Tom Cotton won the Republican primary decisively for a third term, facing minimal opposition. Democrat Hallie Shoffner earned her party’s nomination. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, seeking reelection, ran unopposed in the GOP primary, while Fred Love topped the Democratic field.

House races saw incumbents like French Hill and Bruce Westerman advance easily in Republican primaries. Some districts featured minor Democratic contests, but the state remains firmly GOP territory. A few local and judicial races drew attention, including one involving a sheriff facing charges, but federal outcomes reinforced Arkansas’ conservative lean.

**Broader Implications for Midterms**

Tuesday’s primaries offered early insights into voter sentiment amid national issues like the economy, immigration and foreign policy. In Texas, the Cornyn-Paxton runoff will test Trump’s influence, as both candidates vied for his support. North Carolina’s Senate contest could prove pivotal for majority control, with Democrats viewing it as winnable. Arkansas provided stability for incumbents.

Analysts noted incumbent vulnerabilities, with Crenshaw’s loss a warning for Republicans facing internal challenges. High spending and turnout in select races signal engagement, though overall participation remained typical for primaries.

As results finalized Wednesday, attention shifts to upcoming primaries and the long road to November. Runoffs in Texas (May 26), North Carolina (potential May 12 if requested) and Arkansas (March 31 if needed) will further shape ballots.

The 2026 midterms, testing the party in power and opposition strength, are now underway in earnest.

Karen Chan
Strategy & Investor Relations Director

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for attending the DFI Retail Group 2025 Full Year Results Presentation. I’m Karen Chan, Strategy and Investor Relations Director. Joining us today is Scott Price, Group Chief Executive; and Tom Van der Lee, Group Chief Financial Officer, who will be providing remarks on our full year results, followed by a Q&A session. Today’s presentation is being webcast in its entirety. In addition, the full text of our results announcement and slide presentation are uploaded on to our IR website.

And before we start, I would like to remind you of the following regarding information to be provided during the presentation. The information about to be presented is for information purposes only and is not intended to be investment advice for any person. There’s no intention to imply for any dealings in any securities. There may be forward-looking statements mentioned in the presentation materials, which include statements regarding our intent, belief, expectation with respect to DFI Retail Group businesses operations, market conditions, et cetera. You’re expressly advised not to rely on these forward-looking statements as they are subjective views, which are subject to risks and uncertainties.

And with that, I’ll pass it over to Scott. Scott, please.

Scott Price
Group CEO & Director

Good morning, everyone. Thank you, Karen. A pleasure to be here talking about our full year of 2025 results and also sharing with you some of the insights that we gleaned from the second half of

Wealth management firm lifted its dividend, with shares rising 1.8 per cent in morning trading

Wealth management business Quilter posted record net inflows and increased its dividend, as clients continue to turn to professional financial guidance in greater numbers.

Assets under management and administration (AUMA) surged 18 per cent to £141.2bn from £119.4bn in the previous year.

The increase was fuelled by an 83 per cent jump in net inflows to £8.7bn, alongside a favourable market contribution.

Turnover edged up five per cent, as higher management fee income was partly counterbalanced by reduced investment returns generated on shareholder capital.

Pre-tax profit reached £207m, up from £196m the year before, as reported by City AM.

The board unveiled a £100m share buyback scheme to be completed over the rest of the year, and put forward a final dividend of 4.3 pence, taking the full-year total to 6.3 pence per share.

The firm also confirmed that its bill for compensating clients who paid for financial advice but didn’t receive it will be £20m lower than initially anticipated, having previously earmarked £76m following scrutiny from the City regulator.

Shares climbed 1.8 per cent in early morning dealings to 190.2 pence.

Rae Maile, analyst at Panmure Liberum, said: “The potential for future growth is unchanged given the usual certainties of death and taxes.

“AI cannot augment but not, we are confident, replace personal advice because there are simply too many questions most of which most clients do not know that they do not know.

“We have long stressed that there will be many ways to win in Wealth and Quilter has a variety of options.”

The firm said its Affluent and High Net Worth divisions outperformed their market rivals for levels of inflows throughout the year.

The Affluent division recorded a 22 per cent increase in AUMA to £107.6bn, with its Quilter channel seeing net inflows climb to £2.8bn from £2.3bn.

Its Independent Financial Adviser (IFA) channel reported net inflow of £5.8bn, up from £3bn, reflecting an expanded market share of new business alongside winning assets from rival platforms.

Meanwhile, the High Net Worth division saw net inflows of £0.7bn, but Steven Levin, chief executive officer of Quilter, said that it can “improve performance” and attract a broader customer base.

Levin observed that the “business is well placed to be a winner” from the changes that are reshaping the face of the wealth management industry, and boost overall growth.

The transformation of UK personal tax legislation, including both the thresholds that apply for higher earners on pension contributions and introduction of inheritance tax on pensions from April 2027, has “increased the need for personalised financial advice”. The upheaval resulted in heightened adviser activity, as clients looked to reassess their current financial strategies, with the firm also anticipating a substantial rise in intergenerational wealth transfer over the coming decades, boosting demand.

Levin additionally recognised the transformation from being a nation of savers to a nation of investors, with the organisation “well-positioned” to satisfy this requirement.

The firm is also currently seeking approval from the Financial Conduct Authority to deploy its ‘Targeted Support’ framework, which will enable it to provide personalised recommendations without necessitating full, regulated advice.

He stated: “Our goal is for the Quilter brand to be recognised across UK retail financial services as a customer champion and a trusted destination for pensions, investment services and advice.”

The company anticipates high single digit to double digit growth in profit over the coming year, as it expects elevated costs stemming from pursuing growth opportunities in the marketplace and implementing the ‘Targeted Support’ scheme.

Maile commented: “We do expect net flows to continue to be delivered, and for profit growth to continue, but with the company rightly seeking to invest in future growth that profit growth will, initially, be below market expectations.”

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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When BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust crossed $50 billion in assets under management, it became one of the fastest-growing ETFs in history. Institutional and retail investors alike poured money into a product that promised exposure to Bitcoin without the complexity of direct ownership—no private keys to manage, no custody arrangements to evaluate, no technical learning curve.

But a question lingered beneath the convenience: how do you actually know the Bitcoin is there?

Traditional ETF verification relies on auditors, custodians, and regulatory filings—intermediaries that investors trust to do their jobs correctly. Bitcoin exists on a public blockchain where every holding is theoretically visible to anyone who knows where to look. This creates an unprecedented opportunity for independent verification that simply doesn’t exist for traditional assets. The question is whether investors know how to use it.

The traditional trust model

Conventional ETF investors trust a chain of intermediaries, each with professional obligations and regulatory oversight.

The fund manager reports daily holdings. An independent auditor verifies those reports on a periodic basis—typically quarterly, sometimes annually. A regulated custodian holds the underlying assets with insurance and operational controls. The SEC oversees the structure, requiring specific disclosures and imposing penalties for misrepresentation. Multiple parties, each with reputations and legal standing to protect, create layers of assurance that add up to reasonable confidence.

This model has worked adequately for traditional assets over many decades. Gold ETFs rely on vault audits and bar lists. Bond ETFs rely on custodial records and trustee reports. The trust is distributed across institutions, and the system’s track record—while not perfect—has generally justified investor confidence.

Bitcoin ETFs initially adopted the same infrastructure framework. Coinbase Custody holds the underlying Bitcoin for most major issuers, providing institutional-grade security and insurance. Big Four accounting firms provide attestation services. Familiar intermediaries wrap the novel asset in traditional assurance mechanisms.

But Bitcoin offers something that gold bars and Treasury bonds don’t: the ability to verify holdings directly, in real time, without relying on any intermediary’s word.

On-chain verification explained

Every Bitcoin transaction is recorded on a public ledger that anyone can examine. If you know which addresses belong to an ETF’s custodian, you can check the balance yourself—not once a quarter when audit reports come out, but continuously, every ten minutes when new Bitcoin blocks are confirmed.

This isn’t theoretical capability—it’s practical reality. ETF tracking tools have identified the custodial wallets associated with major Bitcoin ETF issuers. Analysts monitor these addresses continuously, comparing on-chain balances to reported holdings and flagging any discrepancies.

How verification works in practice:

1. Identify custody wallets. Through a combination of transaction flow analysis, timing correlation with known ETF creation/redemption activity, and occasional public disclosures, determine which blockchain addresses the ETF uses for custody.
2. Monitor balances continuously. Track holdings in real time using Arkham dashboards or similar tools. Watch for additions when the ETF reports inflows, reductions when it reports outflows, and any movements that don’t correspond to reported activity.
3. Compare to reported data. Cross-reference on-chain balances against daily holdings reports, NAV calculations, and periodic audit attestations. Look for discrepancies in timing, amounts, or patterns that might indicate problems.

If an ETF reported holding 100,000 Bitcoin but the identified custody wallets showed only 80,000, the discrepancy would be visible to anyone watching. The gap might have innocent explanations—operational timing, wallet rotation, transactions in progress—but it would invite scrutiny and demand explanation.

What verification reveals

On-chain ETF monitoring has produced several insights beyond simple confirmation that reported holdings exist.

Custody patterns vary significantly across issuers. Different ETF sponsors manage their Bitcoin differently. Some concentrate holdings in a small number of addresses, making tracking straightforward. Others distribute across many wallets, complicating analysis but potentially improving security. Some move coins frequently for operational reasons; others let holdings sit untouched for extended periods. These operational differences aren’t apparent in marketing materials or regulatory filings.

Flows precede official filings. When ETFs buy or sell Bitcoin as part of creation/redemption processes, the transactions appear on-chain before daily holdings reports are published. Traders monitoring custodial addresses can observe accumulation or distribution in real time, potentially identifying flows hours before they’re officially disclosed.

Reported data has generally matched on-chain reality. For the major issuers, independent verification has largely confirmed reported holdings. This is reassuring—the traditional trust model appears to be working—but the capability to catch discrepancies provides discipline that wouldn’t otherwise exist. Issuers know they’re being watched, which may itself contribute to careful compliance.

The broader principle

Bitcoin ETF verification represents a specific case of a broader phenomenon: blockchain transparency enabling new forms of accountability and verification.

The same principle applies to corporate treasury holdings. When Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) claims to hold over 500,000 Bitcoin, that claim can be verified against identified corporate wallets—not just trusted based on earnings call commentary.

It applies to exchange reserves. The question of whether customer deposits actually exist on exchanges—dramatically relevant after the FTX collapse—can be addressed through proof-of-reserves attestations that leverage blockchain transparency.

It applies to stablecoin backing. Skeptics questioning whether USDT or USDC are actually backed by equivalent dollar reserves can examine on-chain stablecoin supply and compare to disclosed reserve holdings.

On-chain data provides verification capability unavailable for traditional assets. The skill is knowing how to access and interpret it.

For investors evaluating Bitcoin ETFs—or any entity claiming significant cryptocurrency holdings—platforms like Arkham Exchange make independent verification accessible alongside trading capabilities. The traditional trust model hasn’t been replaced, but it’s been supplemented by something new: the ability to check for yourself.

As on-chain verification becomes standard practice among sophisticated investors, it may influence competitive dynamics among ETF issuers. Sponsors that make verification easy—through clearer wallet identification, better alignment between on-chain activity and disclosures, or proactive transparency—may attract assets from verification-conscious investors. Expect more sophisticated verification tools and potentially regulatory recognition that blockchain-based audit capabilities represent a genuine advancement over traditional attestation models.

Dharmesh Shah, Head – Technical Research, ICICI Securities

With the Nifty falling below the psychological mark of 25,000, a strong support is placed in the 24,400-24,300 zone, which is a confluence of the 20-month exponential moving average (EMA)-held since the post-Covid lows-and the 80% retracement of the May-25 to Jan-26 rally (23,935-26,373). Meanwhile, on the upside, 25,200 would act as immediate resistance.

In the last four decades, there have been six major geopolitical escalations. On each occasion, a major bottom was formed once anxiety around the event settled down. Investing in such panic reactions with a long-term mindset has been rewarding. In the current scenario, post the knee-jerk reaction, we believe the market would stabilise.

We advise that dips should be capitalised on to build quality portfolios from a medium- to long-term perspective. Pullback options would remain open as long as Nifty holds the key support threshold of 24,100.

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Ruchit Jain, Vice-President, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
The Nifty had already breached its 200-day EMA support of 25,240 at the end of last week, and negative global news flows led to a breach of the psychological support of 25,000 as well. The breach of supports one after another indicates a near term downtrend for our markets. The immediate supports for Nifty are placed at 24570 and 24330 which is August 2025 swing low.
The near-term trend remains negative, but the global news flows are likely to dominate the short-term trend for the equity markets. Global geopolitical tensions, rising Crude prices, FII selling and depreciating Rupee are all negative factors for equity markets. Thus, markets are likely to trade with higher volatility. Until the index holds below 25,000-25,100, weakness could be seen towards the 24,400-24,350 zones, while hurdles have shifted to 25,100 and then 25,250. Amol Athawale, VP – Technical Research, Kotak Securities
Currently, the market is trading significantly below both short-term and medium-term averages, and on daily charts, it appears to be in a weak formation, indicating a largely negative outlook.

We are of the view that for positional traders, 24,600 would act as a crucial support zone. If the market slips below this level, the correction could continue until 24,300. Further downside may also persist, potentially dragging the index to 24,000.

On the flip side, 25,000 remains the crucial resistance zone for the bulls. The current market texture is extremely volatile, and is expected to remain volatile in the near future.