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1.6 Billion XRP Sent to Binance as Whale Activity Explodes to a Six-Month High

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XRP whale activity on Binance has increased sharply. In fact, large XRP holders have moved around 1.6 billion tokens to Binance over the past 30 days.

According to CryptoQuant, this is the highest level seen in roughly six months.

Whales On The Move

The rise indicates that more XRP is being transferred by large wallets compared with previous months. Whale inflows had been falling steadily after March. The metric also reached low levels in May, June, and July. However, the trend started to change in August. In recent weeks, whale inflows have gained momentum.

The movement is important because XRP sent to an exchange becomes easier to trade. This can increase the amount of the crypto asset available in the market in the short term.

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However, large transfers to Binance do not automatically mean whales are preparing to sell. This cohort of investors may move tokens to exchanges for several reasons. They could be preparing for trades, or they may also be managing liquidity or moving funds between wallets and exchanges.

XRP had a strong run last month. The token gained around 70% during its August 17-21 rally. The move came as large wallets increased in number. Santiment found 85 new wallets holding at least 1 million XRP just two days before the sharp move, which suggested stronger demand and reduced available supply. But the rally came to an end after the US Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act. It was among the biggest losers this week after an 8% plunge on September 15th.

The token briefly neared $1.25 before stabilizing near $1.33.

Opportunity?

CasiTrades said XRP’s recent move below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement invalidated the wave structure she was tracking. The setup had pointed to a possible final move toward $1.78. The asset now needs to reclaim and hold the macro 0.618 level at $1.65 to improve the outlook.

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Until then, lower Fibonacci levels remain in play. The macro 0.786 level near $1.10 remains a significant area. The analyst said the level could act as a potential C-wave target. However, she also warned that XRP could fall toward $0.87 if selling pressure continues.

Even ChartNerd speculated that another drop remains on the cards. While short-term traders lose patience during this weakness, long-term holders may see the current price as an “opportunity.” Along similar lines, EGRAG CRYPTO said that XRP trading below $2 could be a “life-changing opportunity” for investors.

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CoinShares Says Bitcoin Won't Hit $80,000. Is It Correct?

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Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: TradingView

CoinShares does not expect Bitcoin price (BTC) to break above $80,000 this year. The firm blames a hawkish Federal Reserve and the stalled CLARITY Act, the US bill setting crypto market rules.

Bitcoin trades near $78,040, about 2% below that level. VanEck expects $100,000 within a year, which turns the forecast into a test of whose macro read holds.

Why CoinShares Sees Bitcoin Capped Below $80,000

The Federal Reserve raised rates a quarter point on Wednesday to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. It was the first increase since 2023. Projections released with the decision also removed expected easing through 2027.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, set out the firm’s view in a Friday update. A decisive break above $80,000 is unlikely without better inflation data or a clear shift in policy expectations.

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He tied much of that to Iran. Higher energy prices keep feeding inflation, leaving the Fed little reason to soften.

Butterfill added that Bitcoin is shielded from the regulatory setback because its legal status is already settled. Ether and altcoins are not, since much of the stablecoin payment infrastructure runs on those networks.

Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: TradingView

VanEck Sees $100,000 While On-Chain Data Weakens

VanEck’s Matthew Sigel told CNBC on Friday he expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by next year. The head of digital assets research argues government debt burdens are propping the asset up.

CoinShares treats that same bond-market pressure as a tail risk rather than its base case. A forceful liquidity response, it says, would lift both Bitcoin and gold.

Near-term data leans the other way. Glassnode figures showed Bitcoin closing below its True Market Mean this week, an on-chain average of what holders paid.

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BeInCrypto reported in August that the bill was likely to fail in September. Senators rejected it 49-50 on September 15, and stablecoin issuer Circle saw its stock fall 11%.

CoinShares expects a revised version as early as next year. Until inflation cools, the ceiling on Bitcoin’s current price rests on the Fed, not on Washington.

The post CoinShares Says Bitcoin Won't Hit $80,000. Is It Correct? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Amazon’s $190B Anthropic stake has links to SBF

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Amazon’s $190B Anthropic stake has links to SBF

The balance sheet of Amazon carries $190 billion worth of an investment partially tied to none other than Sam Bankman-Fried of FTX infamy.

Not only did Bankman-Fried invest in Anthropic — in which Amazon now owns $190 billion worth of equity — he also funded an entity that became Model Evaluation and Threat Research (METR), an ostensibly independent evaluator with direct ties to the Effective Altruism movement.

METR, which has provided safety assurances for Amazon and Anthropic’s AI models, checks frontier AI companies like Anthropic and Amazon for safety, and is concerned about a “fast takeoff” of models with human “misalignment” that might hide “recursive” self-coding capabilities to achieve “superintelligence” and kill humans.

The “p(doom)” or probability of doom among METR workers is high. The buzzwords above are real jargon among AI security workers and if their concerns sound bizarre, there’s precedent for those beliefs: the effective altruism movement.

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Specifically, METR’s predecessor took $1.25 million from Bankman-Fried’s effective altruism charity, FTX Foundation. METR is also staffed and funded today by effective altruists.

That $1.25 million donation arrived in July 2022, four months before FTX went bankrupt because Bankman-Fried was stealing FTX customers’ money.

As part of the budget that allowed the Alignment Research Center to operate for over a year before it renamed to METR in 2023, METR eventually returned the $1.25 donation it received from FTX in 2024, because “we now believe that this money morally (if not legally) belongs to FTX customers or creditors.”

FTX also funded Anthropic directly. Bankman-Fried bought a $500 million Anthropic stake using FTX customers’ funds in April 2022.

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Nowadays, METR also receives financial support from Good Ventures Foundation and Coefficient Giving, two other effective altruism entities.

Amazon has historical ties to effective altruism

Effective altruism has been trending recently, so much so that a US Department of War account posted its view that effective altruism is misaligned with Americanism.

Amazon’s second quarter 10-Q filing discloses the company’s equity holdings in Anthropic. Amazon owns about $98 billion worth of Anthropic convertible notes plus roughly $92 billion in non-voting preferred stock.

Read more: Viral report alleges Anthropic’s AI safety watchdog conflicted

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METR spun out of the Alignment Research Center, led by Paul Christiano who was a former housemate of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. Christiano also hired METR’s CEO Beth Barnes, who’s been tied to effective altruism since college.

Other METR staff members share ties to the University of Oxford, a hub for the effective altruism movement.

Amodei’s sister, Daniela Amodei, is also Anthropic’s president. Her husband is Holden Karnofsky, an Anthropic staffer who co-founded two effective altruism foundations, GiveWell and the group now called Coefficient Giving.

Even David Sacks, the former White House “AI czar” appointed by Donald Trump, told Amodei to “stop pretending METR is independent.”

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In all, Amazon certainly has financial ties to Anthropic and its METR safety team. Worth $190 billion and rising with each subsequent valuation increase, Amazon’s stake is certainly noteworthy.

Amazon has even worked with METR directly. In 2025, METR piloted a review of Amazon’s own in-house, frontier AI model.

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on XBluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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HYPE hits record above $90 as Hyperliquid launches manual borrowing

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HYPE hits record above $90 as Hyperliquid launches manual borrowing

HYPE hits record above $90 as Hyperliquid launches manual borrowing

HYPE hit a record $90.92 after Hyperliquid opened manual borrowing, letting users borrow stablecoins against HYPE and Bitcoin collateral.

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In PBS's Heartrending Trespasses, Love Defies War in '70s Belfast

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In PBS's Heartrending Trespasses, Love Defies War in '70s Belfast
Tom Cullen and Lola Petticrew in Trespasses —Wildgaze Films and All3Media International

In an early scene of the exquisitely devastating miniseries Trespasses, two strangers in a pub ruminate on the relationship between art and pain. Cushla (Lola Petticrew), a schoolteacher taking a shift behind her family’s bar, admits she couldn’t finish reading A Clockwork Orange; the knowledge that the novel’s author, Anthony Burgess, was inspired by soldiers’ savage attack on his wife disturbed her too much. “He turned his suffering into art,” protests her customer, Michael (Tom Cullen). “I’d rather have the art without the suffering,” she retorts. “I’m sure his wife would, too.” Michael isn’t quite swayed. “Can you have one without the other?” he wonders.

Such beer-in-hand debates are as old as public drunkenness, but the conversation takes on new layers as the Troubles rage and Cushla and Michael’s romance blossoms in mid-1970s Belfast. She’s an empathetic Catholic, caring for a hypercritical mom (Gillian Anderson’s Gina) who has been lost in alcoholism since the death of her saintly husband and trying to help a young student who’s being bullied by the religious school’s leaders as well as his peers about his own parents’ “mixed” marriage. A Protestant barrister who speaks out against brutality by loyalist police, Michael has made fierce enemies on both sides of the conflict. All around the nascent couple is evidence that their love is doomed. Yet, like so many star-crossed lovers of fiction, they are drawn together by a force stronger than the ones pushing them apart. Whether you see their story, which debuted on Channel 4 in the UK and will premiere Sept. 20 on PBS, as a triumph or as a tragedy will depend on whose view of suffering you find most convincing.

Lola Petticrew, left, and Gillian Anderson in Trespasses —Wildgaze Films and All3Media International

Adapted by Ailbhe Keogan (Bad Sisters) from Louise Kennedy’s celebrated 2022 novel, Trespasses defies Romeo and Juliet cliché through specificity. It is a profound geopolitical injustice that the past few generations of Westerners mostly know war, even when it’s initiated by our own governments, as a misfortune that befalls people thousands of miles away, in dusty deserts and steaming jungles. Keogan subverts that notion, depicting Belfast as a war zone with violence at every doorstep and hatred festering on every corner. Everyone knows which side their neighbors are on—and surveils them, consciously or not, to make sure they stay on it.   

The characters are no mere victims of circumstance. Petticrew, fresh off a thrillingly dark turn in Furious and returning to the place and era of her breakthrough role in the IRA drama Say Nothing, gives us a protagonist who is as bright and stubborn as she is compassionate. You can see why she’d fall for an older, more mature man over the boyish types who clumsily court her. Cullen makes his character irresistible—a crusader who voices unpopular truths, warning law enforcement that their cruelty only mints new IRA recruits. He’s not a pure hero, though. He faces his minefield of a life by compartmentalizing; Cushla knows he’s married, but his infidelity is not up for discussion. The slumped and slurring Gina seems, at first, to be the kind of messy grande dame Anderson has taken to playing in recent years, with mixed results. But even this broad matriarch deepens, and the performance hits subtler notes, in later episodes.      

Just about every character surprises us, at least once, for good or ill. That complexity serves a thematic purpose as well as a narrative one. War flattens the enemy to slurs and stereotypes. Fighting for humanity means insisting upon individual identity; it means believing a Catholic and a Protestant in ’70s Belfast might belong together. “We must find the bravery to choose freedom over fear,” Michael proclaims in one of his righteous moments. “We cannot let the old bigots and the boys with guns tell us how to live.” For a couple on opposite sides of a war that allows for no gray area, this may be a suicidal ideology. But even if art is possible in the absence of suffering, love never comes without the risk of heartbreak. Whether it justifies that pain, Trespasses suggests, is a question too fraught and personal to be resolved by any glib barroom debate.

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Katie Price Checks Husband's Crypto Wallet and Finds $3 Instead of $50 Million

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Ctrl Wallet Winds Down as Crypto Project Shutdowns Mount in 2026

Katie Price told Good Morning Britain she has ended her marriage after checking her husband’s crypto wallet and finding roughly $3 where Lee Andrews had promised $50 million.

Andrews, held in a civil jail in the United Arab Emirates over unpaid debts, sent the programme a voicenote from detention. He said she opened the wrong wallet and that the money is real.

What Katie Price Found in the Crypto Wallet

Price said a friend who trades crypto opened the wallet on her phone while she was abroad. The balance came to about £2.22, close to $3. She checked again minutes before going on air and said nothing had moved.

Andrews did not dispute that figure. He said the balance sits in a different wallet, offered to send a presenter £10,000 to show he can move funds, and offered to take a lie detector test once released.

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“I hope it actually shows by Wednesday that there is 50 million USDT there, which has been legitimately made,” Andrews said that in the voicenote.

USDT is Tether, a stablecoin built to trade near one dollar. It is the third largest crypto asset by market value, so 50 million units would be worth about $50 million.

Other claims have already come apart. Price said Andrews valued a ring he gave her at £72,000. A jeweller told her the stones were lab grown and put the ring at about £5,000.

Why a Wallet Balance Does Not Prove Ownership

Anyone with the address can read a blockchain wallet. That is what let Price test the claim herself, without a bank, a lawyer or his permission.

It stops there. An address reveals what sits inside it, not who holds the private key that moves the money. Sending a payment out proves access in that moment, not ownership of the account.

Courts are working through the same gray area. Tether faces a lawsuit over frozen wallets holding $42.4 million, a case that turns on who controls an address and who may act on it.

“I feel embarrassed because I feel he’s scammed my heart and stole my trust,” Price said in the interview.

She has filed for divorce. Andrews remains detained over debts he says he has already cleared, and he expects release soon. He has not made the wallet address public, so there is still no way to check whether the $50 million was ever there.

The post Katie Price Checks Husband's Crypto Wallet and Finds $3 Instead of $50 Million appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Solana price tests upper Bollinger Band above $105

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Solana daily chart shows SOL at $105.89 above its key moving averages, with ADX at 41.91 signaling a strong trend.

Solana price rose more than 4% on Sep. 18, reclaiming $105 in a derivatives-driven rebound, and a move above short-term resistance strengthened bullish momentum.

Summary

  • Solana price traded near $105.89 after rising 4.18% during the daily session.
  • SOL moved above its 20-day average, while the daily ADX remained strong at 41.91.
  • 4-hour RSI reached 71.37, placing the token in overbought territory.
  • Liquidation clusters near $107–$108 could attract price, while $103–$105 forms initial support.

Solana price action today

According to data from crypto.news, Solana (SOL) price climbed from a daily opening price of $101.63 to about $105.89 at the time of writing, representing a gain of 4.18%. The token traded between an intraday low of $100.90 and a high of $106.67.

The recovery extended a rebound from below $97 earlier in the week and returned SOL to the upper end of its September trading range. Buyers defended the $100 psychological level before pushing the price through the $103–$105 area.

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SOL also gained alongside a wider crypto-market rebound following the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. Short liquidations added buying pressure as traders who had positioned for further losses were forced to close bearish positions.

The advance offered some relief after regulatory uncertainty weighed on digital assets following the U.S. Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act. However, the charts suggest SOL’s next move will depend on whether buyers can hold the breakout rather than the size of the initial rebound alone.

Technical indicators favor buyers above $100

Solana’s daily chart shows the price trading above all four major moving averages. The 20-day simple moving average stood at $101.87, providing the nearest dynamic support.

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Solana daily chart shows SOL at $105.89 above its key moving averages, with ADX at 41.91 signaling a strong trend.
Solana price daily chart — Sep. 18 | Source: crypto.news

Longer-term averages remained farther below the market. The 50-day SMA was near $90.62, while the 100-day and 200-day averages were clustered around $83.55 and $82.68, respectively.

SOL’s position above those averages keeps its broader recovery structure intact. The 20-day line has also turned upward, while the shorter averages remain above the longer-term indicators.

The average directional index registered 41.91 on the daily chart. An ADX reading above 25 typically points to a strong trend, although it does not determine whether that trend will move higher or lower. In SOL’s case, the price structure and moving-average alignment currently favor buyers.

The 4-hour chart presents a more cautious short-term picture. SOL traded above the Bollinger Bands’ middle line at $100.09 and briefly exceeded the upper band near $105.47. A move outside the upper band can signal strong momentum, but it may also precede a pause as volatility expands.

Solana 4-hour chart shows SOL breaking above $105 and the upper Bollinger Band as RSI rises to an overbought 71.37.
Solana price 4-hour chart — Sep. 18 | Source: crypto.news

4-hour relative strength index reached 71.37, above the commonly watched overbought threshold of 70. The reading does not confirm an immediate reversal, though it shows that the rally has become stretched and could face profit-taking.

SOL liquidation map points to $107–$108

CoinGlass’ 24-hour liquidation heatmap shows SOL advancing from below $100 to above $105 as the price moved through several leverage clusters.

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Solana 24-hour liquidation heatmap shows SOL rising above $105, with concentrated liquidity near $107–$108 and support around $103–$105.
Solana liquidation heatmap | Source: CoinGlass

The nearest concentration of overhead liquidity appears between approximately $106.50 and $108. Bright bands in that region indicate leveraged positions that could be liquidated if SOL continues higher. Price often moves toward concentrated liquidity, although a heatmap cannot predict whether the market will reach those levels.

A break above $106.67, the session high, could expose $107–$108 as the next immediate target. Clearing that range would place the late-August and early-September highs around $110–$112 back in focus.

Liquidity is also building below the current price. The strongest nearby bands appear between $103 and $105, followed by clusters near $100–$101. The structure makes $103 the first area buyers need to defend if the rally loses momentum.

A drop below $100 would weaken the breakout and could send SOL toward the 4-hour lower Bollinger Band near $94.71. On the daily chart, the 50-day average near $90.62 would form the next broader support zone.

Analysts see $100 as a major support floor

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez said on-chain data showed more than 40 million SOL had traded around $100, creating what he described as a major support floor.

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Martinez also pointed to a possible cup-and-handle pattern on Solana’s weekly chart, with a neckline near $360. He said a confirmed breakout above that level could open a longer-term path toward $1,300.

The projection remains far above SOL’s current market price and depends on a confirmed weekly breakout that has not occurred. SOL would first need to clear several closer resistance areas, including $108, $112 and $130.

Pseudonymous analyst Scient offered a nearer-term target, saying SOL could extend toward $130 following the daily support-and-resistance flip. The trader said he planned to reduce half of his spot position around that level and look for a possible re-entry near $90.

Both outlooks treat the $100 area as a key dividing line. The current daily chart supports that view because SOL’s 20-day average sits just above $101, while the liquidation map shows several leveraged clusters around the same region.

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What comes next for Solana price

Solana’s short-term setup favors buyers while the token holds above $103 and the 20-day average near $101.87. A decisive close above $106.67 could allow SOL to target the $107–$108 liquidation zone, followed by the previous local highs near $110–$112.

Momentum risk has increased, however, because the 4-hour RSI has entered overbought territory and price has moved above the upper Bollinger Band. Failure to hold $103 could trigger a retest of $100, where both technical support and a large on-chain cost basis are concentrated.

For U.S. investors, the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and congressional progress on crypto market-structure legislation remain external risks. SOL’s technical breakout may hold while risk appetite remains firm, but renewed pressure across U.S. equities and crypto derivatives could expose the liquidity clusters below $100.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Why Is Uniswap (UNI) Up 30% Today?

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UNI is the best-performing cryptocurrency (from the top 100 list) today (September 18), posting a whopping increase of 30% and reaching a 10-month high of nearly $9.20.

Here’s what fueled the rally and what the next potential targets are.

The Catalysts

Perhaps the main driver of the move is the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The regulator issued its Innovation Exemption, which gives temporary relief for on-chain trading of certain tokenized stocks. Hayden Adams (inventor of the Uniswap Protocol and CEO at Uniswap Labs) said the most bullish news is not the official statement, but the comment letter from SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, which reads:

“Truly decentralized systems that are driven by autonomous software… do not need an exemption.”

Adams said this sort of immunity applies to permissioned pools on Uniswap v4, creating a pathway for compliant trading in the US for assets and users where that is necessary.

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Another catalyst is the broader recovery of the cryptocurrency market, which, despite the CLARITY Act’s failure and the interest rate hike in the United States, is in green territory today. Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed $78,000, Ethereum (ETH) reclaimed $2,500, while popular altcoins like NEAR, WLD, DOT, and HYPE have jumped by double digits over the last 24 hours.

What’s Next?

According to multiple analysts, UNI has much more fuel left to post additional gains. X user Altcoin Sherpa believes the next area is around $11 if BTC remains steady.

CW anticipates the asset’s upward trajectory to proceed “smoothly” up to $12.75, where the long-term trend line and a sell wall exist. “It will encounter strong resistance thereafter,” they added.

For his part, Crypto With Gopal noted that UNI is pushing toward the $10 resistance after a long consolidation inside a rectangle structure. He thinks a clean breakout above this level could signal a major momentum expansion to the $20 target.

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Meanwhile, the token’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a short-term pullback may be coming. The ratio has increased to 88, signaling that UNI has entered an extreme overbought zone and could be due for a correction. Conversely, readings below 30 are typically seen as buying opportunities.

UNI RSI
UNI RSI, Source: RSI Hunter

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South Korea Set to Approve Abortion Pills Next Year

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South Korea Set to Approve Abortion Pills Next Year

“We expect this to serve as an opportunity to strengthen the policy foundation for overall women’s health, including pregnancy, childbirth, and contraception,” Won said.

Before the 2019 ruling, abortion was strictly banned save for a few exceptions, including for pregnancies resulting from rape or incest. Estimates from South Korea’s Institute for Health and Social Affairs suggest that the number of abortions in the country had fallen from an estimated 241,411 in 2008 to just 32,063 in 2020, the last year for which statistics are available. In 2011, the health ministry director at the time attributed the downward trend to “a combination of factors including easier accessibility and use of contraceptives, broadening anti-abortion campaigns, and an improved social environment for childbirth and childcare.”

Prime Minister Han Seong-sook responded to critics and conservatives who are against the abortion medication plan, saying the government is also taking “concerns regarding the value of life” seriously. “This measure is aimed at protecting the people’s health rather than encouraging abortion,” Han said. 

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Ethereum Institutional Supports Ethlabs’ Motion to Reduce Ethereum Block Times

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Ethereum Institutional Supports Ethlabs’ Motion to Reduce Ethereum Block Times

Ethereum Institutional signaled support for Ethlabs’ motion to reduce block times and create a faster Ethereum to address increasing competition from other networks.

“Make Ethereum faster,” wrote the non-profit organization in a Friday X post, arguing that reducing block times is needed as “more institutional activity moves onchain.” 

On Thursday, Ethlabs published an article quoting 20 decentralized finance (DeFi) founders showing broad support for EIP-8198, also known as “Quick Slots,” which seeks to initially reduce Ethereum block times to 10 seconds from 12 seconds.

Other blockchain networks are also working on similar block time reduction initiatives. On Monday, the majority of Zcash token holders backed cutting the network’s target block time to 25 seconds, down from 75 seconds.

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In August, Solana reduced its slot time from 400 milliseconds to 350ms. In June, the Solana Foundation shared plans to reduce slot times from 400ms to 200ms, arguing that it would improve latency and accelerate confirmations on the blockchain network. 

EIP-8198 was authored in March and was proposed for inclusion in the Hegotá upgrade at the Ethereum core developers meeting on Aug. 6. Ethlabs said it was merging the proposal’s specifications with the main codebase and investigating potential downstream dependencies to help it “meaningfully enter Hegotá’s scope.” 

Ethereum developers could begin implementing Hegotá in late 2026 following Glamsterdam, arguably one of the most consequential upgrades of the year, designed to improve scalability and harden the mainnet.

Related: Dragonfly’s Qureshi calls for end to Zcash dev fund after 2028

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Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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RWA futures trading volume catches up with crypto at $107.6 billion

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What is a transfer agent in tokenized securities?

Real world asset futures have reached $107.6 billion in monthly trading volume, putting contracts tied to equities, commodities and private companies roughly level with crypto futures after a 142 fold increase in nine months.

Summary

  • RWA futures volume surged 142 fold in nine months to $107.6 billion in July, roughly matching crypto futures at $105.7 billion.
  • Open interest in RWA contracts climbed 167 fold to $1.72 billion, while crypto futures open interest fell to $7.1 billion.
  • Equity contracts accounted for 83% of RWA open interest, while commodity trading responded sharply to moves in oil and silver.
  • Pre IPO contracts for companies including SpaceX and Cerebras drew substantial trading activity around their public listings.

According to a joint report from OKX and Token Terminal shared with crypto.news, RWA futures generated $107.6 billion in trading volume in July 2026, up from $760 million in October 2025, while crypto futures recorded $105.7 billion during the same month.

The expansion came even as overall onchain derivatives activity cooled sharply. Quarterly derivatives volume fell by more than half from its peak, while open interest dropped to a one year low of $8.76 billion, according to the report.

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RWA contracts moved in the opposite direction. Open interest across the category rose 167 fold in nine months to $1.72 billion, leaving the contracts with a growing share of an otherwise weaker derivatives market.

RWA futures have caught up with crypto contracts

OKX and Token Terminal traced the change in trading behavior to the crypto market selloff on Oct. 10, 2025, when more than $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated.

Before the event, crypto futures accounted for nearly all onchain derivatives volume. Trading in contracts linked to real world assets remained limited, with the category generating $760 million in monthly volume.

By July, the composition had changed. RWA contracts reached $107.6 billion in monthly trading volume, roughly matching the $105.7 billion recorded by crypto contracts.

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Open interest showed a similar divergence. Crypto futures open interest fell from $9.1 billion to $7.1 billion over the nine month period, while RWA open interest climbed from $10.3 million to $1.72 billion.

The report said commodities accounted for 14% of RWA open interest by July, with equities representing 83% and pre IPO contracts making up most of the remaining share.

Activity in related markets has been growing outside the futures segment as well. crypto.news previously reported that the tokenized RWA market had expanded 589% since early 2025, with tokenized stocks recording some of the fastest growth.

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Tokenized equity activity accelerated again in August. Monthly transfer volume reached $29.5 billion during the 30 days ending Aug. 29, an increase of more than 415%, while monthly active addresses climbed 209% to 1.3 million.

Commodity trading responds to events outside crypto

The report found that RWA futures activity was increasingly tied to developments in the markets represented by the contracts instead of movements in cryptocurrencies.

Oil provided one example. Following strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, trading volume in an onchain West Texas Intermediate contract increased 149 fold within nine days to $1.69 billion.

Bitcoin volume remained broadly flat during the same period, even as oil trading accelerated. The report linked the difference to traders responding directly to events affecting crude prices.

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Silver showed another pattern. Onchain silver trading reached a record $17.3 billion in February as the metal hit a record price, before volume declined during the following months as the price eased.

Equity contracts responded to scheduled market events. Trading in an onchain S&P 500 contract peaked at $735 million on July 29, the day of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, before reaching $751 million the following day.

Liquidity in some tokenized stock markets has already moved closer to levels found in established crypto markets. A June analysis found that Nvidia linked perpetuals on Bitget had reached around $4.1 million in liquidity depth, equivalent to roughly 75% of the exchange’s Bitcoin spot market.

Pre IPO contracts have created another RWA trading market

Contracts tracking private companies have developed alongside commodities and public equities, with traders using them to gain price exposure before a company reaches the public market.

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The report highlighted SpaceX and Cerebras as examples.

Open interest in a pre IPO SpaceX contract peaked at $976 million on June 11, one day before its June 12 listing. Monthly volume reached $10.9 billion within three months of the contract’s introduction.

Trading continued after the listing. The SpaceX contract traded around 28% above its offer price before the event and remained roughly 16% below that level seven weeks later, according to the report.

Cerebras contracts recorded a different pattern. Open interest more than tripled to $28.5 million around the company’s May 14 listing, while its contract traded at $289 before listing against a $185 offer price. Cerebras stock opened at $350.

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OKX and Token Terminal said pre IPO contracts can establish a market price for a company before its shares begin public trading, with the contracts incorporating expectations around the eventual listing price.

Tokenized securities infrastructure has continued to develop alongside these derivative products. Ondo Finance, for example, has been exploring an acquisition valued between $250 million and $500 million after its broker dealer subsidiary received additional FINRA authorizations covering tokenized corporate equities, exchange traded funds and other investment products.

Retail and institutional traders use RWA markets differently

Trading patterns in the report varied depending on the underlying asset and type of participant.

Retail traders were more active in highly volatile markets. Short positions in the silver contract reached an average of 4.3 times the size of long positions when silver peaked in February, while retail activity declined as volatility fell.

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Pre IPO SpaceX contracts produced the opposite positioning around the June listing. Short side traders roughly tripled afterward, taking the long to short ratio to 4.2 times.

Institutional accounts generally held larger positions for longer periods. Before the SpaceX listing, their average short position was around $1.1 million, compared with roughly $1,000 for retail traders, while institutional accounts recorded average holding periods of 12,046 minutes against 60 minutes for retail participants.

The report found that market structure varied across asset classes as well. Equity contracts accounted for 83% of RWA open interest in July, yet generated 72% of single name equity trading volume. Commodities represented a smaller share of open interest but reacted more sharply to changes in the prices of the assets they tracked.

A separate gap remains between RWA issuance and use inside decentralized finance. Data published in September showed that only $3.79 billion of the $34.6 billion tokenized RWA market had been deployed in protocols, leaving roughly 89% of issued value outside DeFi applications.

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