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10% Bounce Hope Rise As Whales Buy

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Ethereum Whales

Ethereum is trying to stabilize after weeks of heavy selling. The price is holding near the $1,950 zone, up around 6% from its recent low. At the same time, the biggest Ethereum whales have started accumulating aggressively.

But short-term sellers and derivatives traders remain cautious, creating a growing tug-of-war around the next move.

Biggest Ethereum Whales Accumulate as Bullish Divergence Stays Intact

On-chain data shows that the largest Ethereum holders are positioning for a rebound. Since February 9, addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million ETH have increased their holdings from around 5.17 million ETH to nearly 6.27 million ETH. That is an addition of more than 1.1 million ETH, worth roughly $2 billion at current prices.

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Ethereum Whales
Ethereum Whales: Santiment

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This accumulation aligns with a bullish technical signal on the 12-hour chart.

Between January 25 and February 12, Ethereum’s price made a lower low, while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, formed a higher low. RSI measures momentum by comparing recent gains and losses. When price falls, but RSI rises, it often signals weakening selling pressure.

This bullish divergence suggests downside momentum is fading.

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Bullish Divergence
Bullish Divergence: TradingView

The structure remains valid as long as Ethereum holds above $1,890, as the same signal flashed even on February 11 and still seems to be holding. A breakdown below this level would invalidate the divergence for now and weaken the rebound case.

For now, whales appear to be betting that this support will hold.

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Short-Term Holders Are Selling?

While large investors are accumulating, short-term holders are behaving very differently.

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The Spent Coins Age Band for the 7-day to 30-day cohort has surged sharply. Since February 9 (the same time when the whale pickup started), this metric has risen from around 14,000 to nearly 107,000, an increase of more than 660%. This indicator tracks how many recently acquired coins are being moved. Rising values usually signal possible profit-taking and distribution.

ETH Coins
ETH Coins: Santiment

In simple terms, short-term traders are exiting positions. This pattern appeared earlier in February as well. On February 5, a spike in short-term coin activity occurred near $2,140. Within one day, Ethereum dropped by around 13%.

That history shows how aggressive selling from this group can quickly reverse moves. As long as short-term holders remain active sellers, upside moves are likely to face resistance.

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Derivatives Data Shows Heavy Bearish Positioning

Derivatives markets are reinforcing this cautious outlook. Current liquidation data shows nearly $3.06 billion in short positions stacked against only about $755 million in long leverage. This creates a heavily bearish imbalance with almost 80% of the market betting on the short side.

Shorts Dominate
Shorts Dominate: Coinglass

On one hand, this setup creates fuel for a potential short squeeze if prices rise. On the other hand, it shows that most traders still expect further weakness. This keeps momentum muted but keeps the bounce hope alive if the whale buying pushes the prices up, even a little bit, crossing past key clusters.

On-chain cost basis data helps explain why Ethereum struggles to break higher. Around $1,980, roughly 1.58% of the circulating supply, was acquired. Near $2,020, another 1.23% of supply sits at breakeven. These zones represent large groups of holders waiting to exit without losses.

Cost Basis Cluster
Cost Basis Cluster: Glassnode

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When price approaches these levels, selling pressure increases as investors try to recover capital. This has repeatedly capped recent bounces. Only a strong leverage-driven move or short squeeze would likely be powerful enough to push through these supply clusters.

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Until then, these zones remain major barriers.

Key Ethereum Price Levels To Track Now

With whales buying and sellers resisting, Ethereum price levels now matter more than narratives.

On the upside, the first major resistance sits near $2,010. A clean 12-hour close above this level would increase the probability of short liquidations. And it sits near the key supply cluster.

If that happens, Ethereum could target $2,140 next, a strong resistance zone with multiple touchpoints. It also sits around 10% from the current levels. On the downside, $1,890 remains the critical support. A break below this level would invalidate the bullish divergence and signal renewed downside pressure. Below that, the next major support sits near $1,740.

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Ethereum Price Analysis
Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView

As long as Ethereum holds above $1,890 and continues testing $2,010, the rebound structure remains intact. A sustained breakdown below support would cancel the current recovery attempt.

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S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kaiko Bring iBoxx Treasury Index On-Chain via Canton Network

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Crypto PAC to spend $1.5m to unseat Rep. Al Green

At Kaiko’s Cannes conference, S&P DJI and Kaiko unveiled plans to tokenize the iBoxx U.S. Treasury index on Canton, turning it into programmable on-chain IP.

Summary

  • iBoxx U.S. Treasuries is being brought natively on Canton alongside DTCC’s on-chain Treasuries to support index-linked product issuance on the same infrastructure.
  • S&P will distribute the index as a smart contract token embedding full index data, IP rights, licensing terms, fees and access controls.
  • The model treats index data “like a financial asset,” enabling traceability, automated fee collection and reusable, scalable licensing on-chain.

At the Agora Kaiko conference in Cannes on March 31, S&P Dow Jones Indices’ Chief Product and Operations Officer Cameron Drinkwater and Kaiko CEO Ambre Soubiran unveiled a partnership to tokenize one of S&P’s flagship fixed-income benchmarks, the iBoxx U.S. Treasury index, on the Canton network, turning the index itself into a programmable on-chain IP product rather than a simple price feed.

New Canton, Kaiko and S&P DGI partnership announced

Kaiko CEO Ambre Soubiran announced that “Kaiko and S&P DGI, we’ve been partnering now in tokenizing one of the biggest S&P benchmarks, the iBoxx index, and bringing that onto the Canton Network.” The move follows DTCC’s decision to bring U.S. Treasuries natively onto Canton (CC), which Drinkwater described as “a natural opportunity for us to bring the iBoxx Treasury index also on Canton to give product developers or counterparties a tool to use with the physical underlying also on that chain.”

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Soubiran emphasized this is “not just publishing the price of the benchmark on the network.” Instead, S&P is “actually creating a smart contract token that contains all of the index data,” so that clients receive “a smart contract containing the index data but also explicitly having licensing and fees and access control all embedded into a smart contract.” She framed it as “more about a distribution play rather than a data play,” delivering the full index product on-chain.

Drinkwater said choosing iBoxx was a “total no-brainer” because with DTCC putting U.S. Treasuries on Canton, “you have the underlying” and “a very active kind of treasury institutional trade landscape on Canton” plus “real demand for the iBoxx Treasury index to be used as a underlying for product issuance on the Canton chain.”

On-chain IP and data-as-asset

For S&P, tokenizing indices as full IP products changes how licensing and economics work. Drinkwater argued that “one of the great advantages for an IP issuer like ourselves on chain is we actually have better auditability, visibility in how IP is being used, reporting on that use case and… instantaneous reporting and potentially commercial exchange based on that smart contract.” In traditional markets, he noted, S&P is “dependent on delayed reporting on volumes,” often disputed, followed by “multiple months on contract settlement,” whereas on chain “the whole timeline pulls in quite considerably” with “far less opportunity for dispute.”

Soubiran linked this to a broader shift: “the more we bring capital markets applications on chain, the more we bring data on chain, especially private and IP protected data, the more we need to treat data like a financial asset.” Blockchain infrastructure, she said, enables “traceability of data and treat data like a financial asset and trace where that data goes,” which is “great from a IP protection standpoint” and for “programmatically” managing monetization of IP in financial products.

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Drawing on Kaiko’s own index business, she noted that many index fee arrangements are tied to AUM and turnover, with end-of-year reconciliations still “quite heavily manual.” Moving indices on-chain allows firms to “on chain verify what is the AUM related to the financial product that is linked to your index or your benchmark” and enable “daily fee collection based on daily turnover.” It is, she said, “not necessarily a novel product, it’s just a novel way of distributing” existing benchmarks.

Composability, evergreen contracts and Canton

Both speakers highlighted composability as a key benefit of this design. “The idea of tokenizing an index is for product issuers… to consume that index product natively on chain and wrap it into a index-linked financial product,” Soubiran explained, calling the application of composability to data products “extremely new and powerful.”

Drinkwater described the structure as layered: “you can think of the token being the index and then the smart contract being wrapped around it and that’s the use case, the use case specific terms and conditions, audit rights, etc.” That wrapper “can be tailored to whatever use case clients come to us for, but then it’s repeatedly usable. It’s evergreen. It’s on chain.” Compared with today’s model, where “clients have to come to us for every use case, it’s a new schedule on their MSA,” he said this offers “a very frictionless process of getting new product issued on chain, massively speeding up timelines,” and a “reusable infrastructure that really benefits all parties.”

On why Canton matters, Drinkwater pointed to its ability to straddle public and private workflows. On fully public chains like Ethereum, “that reporting is going to be public,” which does not fit “a lot of our use cases” such as “private exchange swaps… between institutions and they don’t want that public.” Canton’s setup, he said, lets reporting be “private when it needs to be private, public where it can be public, but back to us nonetheless,” unifying reporting across use cases in a way that “in TradFi is not the case.”

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Soubiran framed the broader aim as servicing “almost a new addressable market that is your existing clients moving to an infrastructure that is programmatic and a little bit more disintermediated,” stressing that “a lot of great things exist in our current financial system,” but that the opportunity lies in “making things more automated… more programmatic in the transfer of information, the transfer of data.”

S&P’s broader digital roadmap

Drinkwater placed the Kaiko and Canton partnership within S&P’s longer digital asset strategy. He recalled that SPY “was not SPY for the first decade of its life, but it flag planted,” and said S&P understands “the power of moving first and establishing real use cases in new technology.” With a brand “known and trusted by institutions and retail alike,” S&P wants “to move first and early when we have conviction in new products and new technologies because we need our brand to be firmly planted there as an established entity.”

Over the last year, he said, S&P has “very selectively” chosen “high quality players as partners and putting IP on chain where we saw very discrete and tangible use cases,” citing the on-chain S&P 500 token with Centrifuge and the Digital Markets 50 index with Genari that bundles blockchain-exposed equities and cryptocurrencies in a structure “hard to replicate in TradFi.” Even so, he signaled he is “most excited about the innovation that we’re pushing today” with tokens wrapped in smart contracts that are “tailored to use cases, but extensible and evergreen on chain,” because this “unlocks so many use cases and scalability of our IP.”

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Who is Keven Warsh, Trump’s Pick for the Federal Reserve?

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Who is Keven Warsh, Trump’s Pick for the Federal Reserve?

The US Senate could soon hear testimony to confirm financier Kevin Warsh as the new chair of the Federal Reserve.

Warsh, who previously served on the Fed’s Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011, has criticized the central bank’s policies under current chair Jerome Powell. Warsh has called for “regime change” and lower interest rates.

Regarding crypto, Warsh has a somewhat nuanced approach. He hails Bitcoin as a sustainable store of value, but claims it doesn’t function as money. 

Lower interest rates and a fairly open attitude toward crypto could be good news for digital asset prices, which most investors perceive as risk-on. But even if Warsh passes his nomination, there’s no guarantee he’ll affect the changes expected. 

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Warsh wants to lower Fed interest rates, but can he?

Warsh, a graduate of Stanford and Harvard, started his career at Morgan Stanley, where he eventually became a VP and executive director. He then served as an executive secretary of the White House National Economic Council under President George W. Bush.

Bush nominated him to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in 2006, where his hawkish views on inflation often differed from his colleagues. He was critical of the aggressive use of its balance sheet, which he said led to a period of “monetary dominance” that artificially depressed rates. 

Some of this appears to have changed in recent years. In a November 2025 op-ed for the Wall Street Journal, Warsh criticized Powell’s leadership at the Fed, claiming that “inflation is a choice, and the Fed’s track record under Chairman Jerome Powell is one of unwise choices.”

He said “credit on Main Street is too tight” and that the Fed’s balance sheet, which is “bloated” due to past crisis-management efforts, “can be reduced significantly.” 

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Source: Polymarket Money

“That largesse can be redeployed in the form of lower interest rates to support households and small and medium-size businesses,” he said. 

Plans for cutting interest rates come at an economically fraught time. The US and Israel’s joint attack on Iran, which could soon escalate into an invasion if US President Donald Trump so decides, has wreaked havoc on oil prices.

Increasing oil prices had a direct effect on the core inflation metrics the Federal Reserve uses when considering rate changes. This could put the damper on any plans for rate cuts, at least certainly under Powell.

Warsh told Barron’s that the “core theory of inflation that the Fed is using” is “mistaken.” He said that “we need to fundamentally rethink macro, which is a fundamental rethink of the core economic models that the Fed is using.”

In his accounting, rising wages and commodity prices are not to blame for inflation. Rather, “at the core, I think inflation comes about when the government spends too much and prints too much.”

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Returning to monetarism, as well as dumping some of the debt held by the Federal Reserve, could help address inflation concerns, in his view. 

Bankers and former Bush administration officials have congratulated Warsh on the nomination. Former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the Fed would “benefit from his steady, principled leadership.”

“He understands the central bank’s key role for the United States and our allies around the world,” she said.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has also welcomed Warsh’s nomination. He said that he knew both Powell and Warsh well, and that “They’re both very qualified.”

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Qualifications aside, Warsh may find it difficult to enact his preferred policies.

Roger W. Ferguson Jr., the Steven A. Tananbaum Distinguished Fellow for International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), and Maximilian Hippold, a research associate for international economics at CFR, wrote that Warsh won’t revolutionize the Fed.

They said that the chair alone does not make inflation rate decisions. “They are determined by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a twelve-member body that includes seven Fed governors and five regional Fed presidents.” The chair can’t change policy without convincing a majority. 

A Fed Board of Governors meeting in 2022 with Powell center. Source: Public Domain

Others argue that Warsh’s interest in lowering interest rates is a recent pivot and may not be a core conviction around which he will focus central bank policy. A December 2025 analysis from Deutsche Bank noted Warsh’s response to the global financial crisis in 2008, when he was a Governor at the Fed.

“His views while he was a Governor around the GFC [global financial crisis] at times skewed more hawkish than his colleagues,” the report read. “Although Warsh has argued for lower rates recently, we do not view him as structurally dovish.”

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They further questioned Warsh’s plans to lower interest rates and cut assets on the Fed balance sheet. “This trade-off would only be feasible if regulatory changes are made that lower banks’ demand for reserves. While several Fed officials have made this argument recently, including Vice Chair of Supervision Bowman and Governor Miran, it is not obvious these changes are realistic in the near-term.”

“The chair has just one vote amongst a particularly divided committee.”

Warsh’s nomination and Fed independence

Commentators have also drawn attention to Warsh’s connection to the Trump administration. Warsh’s father-in-law, Ronald Lauder, is a classmate of Trump and a major donor to his political campaigns.

His relatively recent opinions on low interest rates also make him uniquely suited to the role, at least in Trump’s eyes. Ferguson and Hippold wrote, “Trump believes he has found a successor who will align with his economic priorities in Warsh.”

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The president has long bemoaned Fed officials who supposedly promise rate cuts, but then raise them once in office. “It’s too bad, sort of disloyalty, but they got to do what they think is right,” he said in a speech at Davos last year. 

Trump has long pushed for lower interest rates, claiming that they are needed to spur his economic development plans. Powell’s refusal to acquiesce to the White House’s request led to political scandal. 

Last year, the Department of Justice (DoJ) opened a criminal investigation into Powell, alleging that he misappropriated billions of dollars for new offices for the Federal Reserve.

A federal judge recently quashed the DoJ’s subpoenas in the case. Judge James Boasberg wrote in a memorandum opinion, “A mountain of evidence suggests that the dominant purpose is to harass Powell to pressure him to lower rates. For years, the President has publicly targeted Powell because the Fed is not delivering the low rates that Trump demands.”

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Boasberg noted Trump’s invective posts on social media. Source: US District Court for the District of Columbia

Regarding his pick, Trump said in a January press event in the Oval Office that it would be “inappropriate” to ask Warsh about his stance on interest rates. “I want to keep it nice and pure, but he certainly wants to cut rates, I’ve been watching him for a long time.” 

Just a couple of weeks later, in an interview with NBC, Trump said Warsh understands that he wants to lower interest rates. “But I think he wants to anyway. If he came in and said ‘I want to raise them’ […] he would not have gotten the job.”

But Warsh hasn’t “gotten the job,” at least not yet. He will face tough questioning from Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee, possibly as soon as April 13

In a letter lambasting Warsh’s role in bailing out banks in 2008, Senator Elizabeth Warren, who serves on the committee, said, “I have no doubt that you will serve as a rubber stamp on President Trump’s Wall Street First agenda.”

Warren expected written responses to this, and to Warsh’s opinion about Trump’s “witch hunts” against Powell and Fed Governor Lisa Cook, by April 2.

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