The Trump administration’s decision to cut foreign access to Anthropic’s most powerful AI models was reportedly triggered by calls from Amazon CEO Andy Jassy.

According to a report from The Wall Street Journal, Jassy contacted senior government officials on Thursday after Amazon researchers discovered a way to prompt Anthropic’s Fable 5 model into returning information that could be used for cyberattacks. 

The call, along with warnings from at least five other firms, led to a frantic shuffle within the White House to gauge the threat and contact Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, who reportedly pushed back on the administration’s concerns and requests to voluntarily pull the model. 

“In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly,” said David Sacks, the co-chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, on Saturday. “It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue).”

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Source: David Sacks

The episode sheds light on what led to the US directive that forced Anthropic to pull its new model from the public on Friday night. Anthropic Claude is estimated to have around 18,900 monthly active users. 

In a blog post on Friday, Anthropic said it believed the US directive was the result of a misunderstanding about the threat posed by a “non-universal jailbreak,” which came from an unnamed report. 

Amazon did not confirm if it spoke to government officials about Anthropic’s models. 

“As a leading cloud provider that serves a large number of private and public sector customers, it’s not uncommon for governments to seek ​our counsel on potential security risks,” a spokesperson said. “When they occur, we don’t share the details of these discussions.”

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Anthropic said it is working to restore access for its users.

Related: Anthropic suspends access to Fable 5, Mythos 5, citing US directive

“The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue,” Sacks said, which would see the export control lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. 

“The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible.”

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AI tokens surge after Anthropic crackdown

The episode has also demonstrated the US government’s ability to promptly switch off access to US-based AI models on command, leading to a rally in decentralized AI tokens on Friday and Saturday. 

The native token of Bittensor, a decentralized AI protocol that lets people build and monetize artificial intelligence models, which some refer to as “the Bitcoin of AI,” surged 23.9% over the past 24 hours.

Venice Token (VVV), the native utility and privacy coin powering Venice AI, a decentralized, uncensored AI platform founded by Erik Voorhees, rose 16%.

Near Protocol, a blockchain project building the infrastructure to support a decentralized AI agent economy, rose 6.2%.

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Source: Erik Voorhees

Magazine: Bitcoin, the ‘canary in the coal mine,’ XRP transaction demand falls 91.5%: Market Moves

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Iran has disputed US President Donald Trump’s claim that a deal ending the war will be signed on Sunday, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps calling the timeline false and the framework unfinished.

The clash surfaced as both sides signaled a broader agreement was close, one that would replace a fragile 60-day ceasefire. 

US and Iran Split on the Deal Signing Date

Trump said on Truth Social that the agreement would be signed on Sunday and that the Strait of Hormuz would open to all traffic immediately after.

This post came after Pakistan, acting as mediator, struck an optimistic tone. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the parties were closer than ever and that Islamabad was preparing for an electronic signing.

“We are closer to a peace deal than ever before. With finalisation likely expected in the next 24 hours,” the post read.

Tehran pushed back fast. A source cited by Iran’s Fars News Agency called reports of a finalized deal on Sunday completely false.

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The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) described the timeline as a test for Iran’s negotiating team and said the memorandum was not yet finalized. The Guard linked Trump’s insistence to his birthday, suggesting a publicity motive.

“A notable point is that Sunday coincides with June 14, Trump’s birthday. Some observers consider it likely that, through this insistence, he is seeking to exploit the occasion symbolically and turn it into a publicity event for himself. But given the clear position of Iranian officials that the agreement is not finalized, it appears our country’s negotiators are aware of these hidden layers and will not allow such a media and ceremonial maneuver,” the statement read.

Oil and Crypto Markets Brace for Monday

The dispute leaves markets waiting for confirmation when trading resumes Monday. A signed deal could pull oil prices lower after they climbed during the conflict.

Reopening the Strait of Hormuz would ease supply fears, since the waterway carries a large share of global crude shipments.

Crypto markets have already reacted to the headlines. Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $64,460, up about 1.56% over 24 hours, while the total crypto market rose roughly 1%.

The recovery followed Pakistan’s 24-hour signing claim. However, sentiment stayed cautious, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index near 18.

A confirmed agreement could extend the relief move. Any delay or fresh clash, in contrast, could pressure oil and digital assets again.

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The post Iran Contradicts Trump on Timing of Peace Deal Signing appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Public crypto token sales have raised just $58 million in Q2 2026, according to data published by CryptoRank on June 10, a drop of 85% from the previous quarter.

It means that the period is well on the way to becoming the weakest fundraising quarter for ICOs, IDOs, and IEOs in five years.

Public Fundraising Is Drying Up Across Crypto

CryptoRank’s data showed that Q1 2026 had already looked weak, with about $390 million raised across 105 sales, but things have deteriorated even further in the second quarter.

The severity of the situation is even clearer in the month-by-month breakdown: April saw just $15 million raised across 20 sales, while May brought in around $41 million from just 13 sales, marking the lowest monthly count since December 2020.

June, which is still in progress, has so far recorded just 4 sales that raised about $2 million. To put that in context, January 2025 alone saw $654 million raised, with that quarter serving as the cycle peak, as 429 sales raised just under $850 million. Since then, the market has shed more than 93% of its quarterly fundraising volume in dollar terms.

Still, CryptoRank’s dashboard shows that public token sales raised more than $4 billion between the first quarter of 2024 and the second of 2026.

In that time, IDOs were consistently the dominant format, accounting for nearly 75% of all public sales. IEOs and ICOs respectively made up 18% and 7% of activities. However, all three formats have contracted quite sharply this quarter.

Among launchpads, Coinlist is the largest by capital raised, having handled $1.37 billion. It is followed by Fjord Foundry with $975 million and Echo at $201 million, with Gate Launchpad and DAO Maker rounding off the top five.

Venture Capital Is Still Active

According to a May report by Galaxy Digital, crypto venture capital activity also slowed in Q1 2026. In that period, private investors put in some $4 billion in 355 deals, a 50% drop from the previous quarter, the report said.

Galaxy Digital noted that the decline was mainly due to a lack of huge late-stage rounds that had dominated late 2025, but there have still been a few large raises occurring recently. One such example is Digital Asset Holdings’ $355 million raise in a new round led by Andreessen Horowitz, which came just a month after it pulled in $300 million.

CryptoRank’s figures suggest that while capital is still available in crypto, it is increasingly concentrated in a smaller number of companies and private funding rounds rather than public token launches. Those hit their peak when sentiment was strongest, but they seem to have since tracked the broader market lows.

This can be seen from a previous report also published by CryptoRank that showed many of the projects that had been funded between April and June 2025, when the crypto market was enjoying a rebound, ended that year trading well below their fundraising valuations.

And that may explain why retail appetite for new launches has dried up so completely in 2026.

The post Crypto Public Token Sales on Track for 5-Year Lows in Q2 2026 appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Here is the thing about capitulation calls. They only sound smart in hindsight. Right now, with Bitcoin price scraping along the low $60,000s, calling for a run to the mid $70,000s feels like wishful thinking. Elon Musk’s SpaceX AI is making predictions anyway, pinning a 30-day target of $72,000 to $78,000 on a coin that just got cut nearly in half.

From $63,000, that is a 14% to 24% bounce, and the entire argument rests on the idea that the people selling right now are the ones who always sell at the bottom.

That is really what the bull case comes down to. More than 50% of supply is sitting in loss, which xAI reads not as weakness but as the classic capitulation flush that has marked the floor in past cycles.

Long-term holders are quietly accumulating into that fear, ETF outflows are drying up, and June has a habit of leaning green historically.

Add even a whiff of macro liquidity relief or regulatory clarity and you get the spark for a violent short-covering rally.

The confident version of this story has BTC pushing through $65,000 resistance and accelerating toward the mid $70,000s by mid July as sentiment flips.

xAI is honest about the other side, though. If $60,000 gives way decisively, capital keeps bleeding into AI and equities, and macro stays heavy, Bitcoin slips toward $55,000 to $58,000.

Bitcoin (BTC)

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The interesting tell is that it frames that drop as a higher-probability buy zone rather than the start of a real crash. In other words, even the downside scenario is treated as a discount, not a disaster.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Where The Sellers Run Out Of Sellers

So does the chart back any of this up. Pull up the daily and the damage is obvious. Bitcoin is at $63,024 after a long ugly slide from the $126,000 peak set back in October, a drop that has erased more than half the move.

The trend is unmistakably down, lower high after lower high, and the latest leg just dumped price into the low $60,000s where it printed a candle near $60,000 before this small bounce.

But that exact zone is the whole story. This $60,000 to $62,000 shelf is where buyers stepped in hard back in February, and it is the floor xAI is leaning on.

Lose it on a daily close and $58,000 opens up quickly, with $55,000 underneath. Hold it, and the first real test is $65,000, the level that has to crack before any of this turns into momentum, with $72,000 and the heavier $76,000 ceiling stacked above.

The RSI is the part that actually agrees with the bulls. It is sitting at 31.95 with the signal line at 25.74, so price momentum has flushed into deeply oversold territory but has already curled back above its own average.

That roughly 6 point gap, with RSI now leading the signal higher, is the early fingerprint of selling exhaustion rather than fresh downside.

It is not a buy signal on its own, but it is exactly what you would expect to see if xAI is right that the weak hands are nearly done. Reclaim $65,000 with this momentum building underneath and that mid $70,000s target stops looking like wishful thinking and starts looking like the path of least resistance.

You Might Like What SpaceX AI Predicts About LiquidChain

Large caps are not in trouble. They are just out of the room. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have been testing the same ceilings for weeks with nothing breaking through.

Every macro catalyst has a new arrival date. Every institutional wave has a new quarter attached to it. Holding assets where the next leg depends entirely on someone else’s decision is not a trade. It is a waiting room.

The money that wins cycles never announces where it is going.

The capital that actually moves in cycles relocates before the destination has a name.

Small market cap infrastructure plays operate on physics that large caps simply cannot replicate. A rotation that would not register as a rounding error at Bitcoin’s scale can reprice an undiscovered project by multiples.

The opportunity lies in the distance between what something is genuinely worth and what the market has assigned it so far. That distance shrinks to zero the moment discovery happens. Before that moment, it is fully capturable.

Multi-chain fragmentation is one of the most consistently expensive problems in DeFi, and it has never been solved. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana exist as completely isolated systems. No shared architecture. No native interoperability. Every time value moves between them, the disconnection extracts its cost in fees, slippage, and failed transactions. That cost hits every single crossing every single time.

LiquidChain makes the crossing free as SpaceX xAI predicts. All 3 networks inside one execution environment. Single deployment. Complete ecosystem access. No tax on any interaction.

The presale is at $0.01454 with just over $830,000 raised. Early and undiscovered.

Execution is unproven. Adoption is unknown. Established assets offer predictability toward a ceiling that the market already sees. LiquidChain is an entry point that does not exist once the market finds it.

Explore the LiquidChain Presale

The post Elon Musk SpaceX AI Predicts Incredible Bitcoin Price For Next 30 Days appeared first on Cryptonews.

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TLDR:

• Litecoin has entered the lower Fibonacci Adjusted Market Mean Price band, a zone tied to past accumulation phases.
• Whale and shark wallets holding at least 10,000 LTC have grown by 7% over the past five months despite flat prices.
• LitVM is bringing smart contract functionality to Litecoin via a zkLTC wrapper, renewing social media interest in LTC.
• Santiment data ranked Litecoin as the top trending coin, with retail volume expected to recover on any price rally.

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Litecoin is drawing renewed attention from analysts and on-chain data providers as price action revisits historically significant support levels.

Whale and shark wallet growth continues alongside fresh ecosystem interest from LitVM, a smart contract project building on the Litecoin network.

Together, these developments are placing LTC under the spotlight at a time when broader market conditions remain uncertain.

Litecoin Price Revisits Key Fibonacci Support Region

Litecoin’s price has moved into what analysts describe as a structurally meaningful zone. According to crypto analyst Alphractal, LTC has touched the first lower level of the Fibonacci Adjusted Market Mean Price model.

Litecoin is entering an important region of the cycle.

LTC is now revisiting the lower levels of the Fibonacci Adjusted Market Mean Price, a metric that uses the Market Mean Price as its base and builds Fibonacci proportional bands to map expansion zones, mean reversion areas,… pic.twitter.com/BDTmS9gcSP

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— Alphractal (@Alphractal) June 13, 2026

This metric uses the Market Mean Price as a base and builds proportional Fibonacci bands to map expansion, mean reversion, and accumulation areas.

Historically, Litecoin has found support within the blue and green bands of this model during periods of market stress.

The green band, representing the lowest level, has marked points of strongest selling pressure across previous cycles. The blue region, where LTC currently sits, has also served as a relevant value area in past market structures.

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On a logarithmic scale, Alphractal notes that Litecoin is once again approaching zones that historically attracted long-term investor attention.

The upper bands of this model have typically aligned with overheated market conditions and distribution risk. Lower bands, by contrast, tend to reflect discounted pricing relative to the asset’s structural mean.

The analyst added that while Litecoin remains weak in the short term, periods of extreme weakness have also marked the early formation of longer-term value. That framing has resonated with investors monitoring LTC’s positioning within the broader crypto market cycle.

Whale Accumulation and LitVM Fuel On-Chain Interest

On-chain data from Santiment adds another layer to the current Litecoin narrative. The number of whale and shark wallets holding at least 10,000 LTC has climbed by 7% over the past five months, even as price performance has remained relatively flat.

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Santiment noted that accumulation from large holders often precedes major trend shifts before retail participants take notice.

✍️ TL;DR: Litecoin whale and shark wallets keep growing while LitVM fuels fresh interest.
📊 Metrics Used: Number of Wallets, Transaction Volume in USD
🔗 Link to chart: https://t.co/G2EaSjLzqA

🐋 Litecoin’s largest holders have been quietly growing their positions even as price… pic.twitter.com/O730qugxnU

— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) June 12, 2026

Transaction volume tied to these larger wallets has also remained active during this period. Santiment’s data shows that any price rally could quickly draw retail participants back into the market, which would likely support broader volume recovery for LTC.

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Much of Litecoin’s current social media traction stems from LitVM, a project introducing smart contract functionality through a zkLTC wrapper.

The platform has sparked debate among traders about whether it can generate meaningful utility and demand for Litecoin going forward.

Santiment confirmed that LTC ranked as the top trending coin across social data at the time of the report. Whether LitVM delivers on its promise remains an open question, but the conversation itself has refreshed interest in an asset that had largely faded from active discussion.

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Rug pulls made up over 54% of all newly detected crypto scams, according to the latest data from the on-chain security analysis platform Web3 Antivirus.

The findings suggest that while scam tactics are still evolving, many attackers continue to rely on token projects that appear legitimate at first before contract controls are used to trap investors or drain liquidity.

Rug Pulls Are the Biggest Threat

In a June 9 breakdown on X, Web3 Antivirus also noted that honeypots, a different but related trick, came in second at around 22%, followed by fake tokens at roughly 12% and scam airdrops at just under 12%.

The mechanics behind rug pulls are what make these schemes so effective. As the security firm reported, they are created in such a way that, in their initial phases, they resemble normal market activity with increasing prices, trade volumes, and high activity in online forums.

The risk only becomes visible when the contract owners exercise hidden permissions that either prevent users from selling, remove liquidity, or otherwise lock funds.

“A token can look alive with the chart moving up and the community getting louder, but one owner-side action can change everything in secs,” wrote Web3 Antivirus. “The same contract controls that were invisible during the pump can suddenly become the reason users cannot exit, liquidity disappears and the chart collapses.”

Honeypots work on the same basic principle. Bad actors create a fake token and push it to the public with convincing marketing as a big investment opportunity. They even artificially push up the token’s value by making transactions themselves to create an illusion of high demand to attract unwitting investors.

However, as soon as people buy in, often at inflated prices, the underlying contract prevents any sale, with the scammers withdrawing the profits and exiting. Web3 Antivirus’s latest Scam Pulse data shows more than 425,000 rug pulls detected alongside 172,000 honeypots and over 94,000 scam airdrops.

In addition, of more than 100 million contracts the platform has analyzed, it has flagged almost 4 million as scams, with at least 3.1 million of those appearing within the last 30 days alone.

There has also been an uptick in the impersonation of token contracts, as seen in the security firm’s weekly leaderboard showing Ethereum leading with 291 fake token detections. Tether followed close behind at 270, and USDC at 225, with activity up across nearly every tracked asset compared to the previous week.

Delivery Methods Are Getting Harder to Spot

Beyond the on-chain mechanics, Web3 Antivirus also pointed out that AI is changing how scams are reaching users in the first place. The technology, according to them, now makes phishing emails, fake support chats, and fraudulent social media posts look polished enough to pass a quick visual check.

Per their data, emails are the most common delivery channel at 53%, followed by SMS at 10%, social media at 9%, and online ads at 8%. And there are examples across the industry, including an incident in May, where a fake Uniswap website drained at least $400,000 from users before the alarm was raised.

That same month, Ripple CTO Emeritus David Schwartz issued a warning to XRP investors about a fake airdrop and giveaway campaign targeting XRPL users.

And not long ago, Web3 Antivirus identified a phishing account posing as the Canton Network, complete with the project’s branding, that was using a supposedly official announcement post to redirect unsuspecting users to a scam URL.

The post Report: Rug Pulls Dominate Crypto Scams, Accounting for 54% of Threats appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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TLDR:

• The US government issued an export control directive ordering Anthropic to suspend all Fable 5 and Mythos 5 access globally.
• Anthropic reviewed the jailbreak report and found the capabilities were already available in models like OpenAI’s GPT-5.5.
• The reported jailbreak involved asking Fable 5 to read a codebase and flag software flaws, with no harmful result disclosed.
• Anthropic warned the recall standard, if applied industry-wide, would effectively halt all frontier AI model deployments.

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Anthropic has disabled global access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 following a US government export control directive.

The order, received at 5:21pm ET, cites national security concerns tied to a reported jailbreak method. All other Anthropic models remain available.

The company says it is complying with the directive while disputing the technical basis for the decision.

Government Directive Targets Reported Jailbreak Method

The US government issued the directive without disclosing specific national security details in writing. Officials communicated verbally that they had learned of a method capable of bypassing Fable 5’s safeguards.

Anthropic reviewed a demonstration of this technique and found it exposed only minor, previously known vulnerabilities.

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The company reviewed what it believes is the report behind the government’s decision. Anthropic stated that the level of capability displayed “is widely available from other models, including OpenAI’s GPT-5.5, and is used every day by the defenders who keep systems safe.” That review found no Fable-specific uplift in the findings.

The reported jailbreak essentially involved asking the model to read a codebase and identify software flaws. Anthropic confirmed it “has not even received a disclosure of a concerning non-universal potential jailbreak that led to a harmful result.” The potential jailbreaks disclosed were either entirely benign or classified as minor findings.

The directive requires suspending access for all foreign nationals, including Anthropic employees with foreign national status, both inside and outside the United States. The company said compliance meant disabling the models for all customers to avoid any breach of the order.

Anthropic Disputes the Standard Applied to Commercial Models

Anthropic launched Fable 5 with a defense-in-depth strategy, combining narrow jailbreak resistance with real-time monitoring and mandatory 30-day data retention.

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The company acknowledged during launch that “perfect jailbreak resistance is not currently possible for any model provider.”

The 30-day data retention policy was a deliberate trade-off. It drew pushback from customers but allowed Anthropic to detect, study, and respond to jailbreak attempts quickly.

Anthropic described this as making jailbreaks “either narrow or very expensive to produce,” keeping risk levels comparable to other deployed models across the industry.

On the government’s authority to act, Anthropic said it “believes the government should have the ability to block unsafe deployments, as part of a statutory process that is transparent, fair, clear, and grounded in technical facts.” The company argued this directive did not meet those standards.

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Anthropic warned that applying this recall standard broadly “would essentially halt all new model deployments for all frontier model providers.”

The company committed to releasing additional technical details within 24 hours and confirmed all other models in its lineup continue to operate without restriction.

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Americans rank job loss as their biggest fear about artificial intelligence (AI), while curing diseases like cancer tops their hopes, according to a survey of nearly 52,000 people by Anthropic.

The findings expose a gap between what the public wants from AI and what it dreads, as real layoff data and political pressure over automation build across the United States.

Job Loss Outranks Every Other AI Fear

Anthropic surveyed 51,993 Americans in late 2025 for its first Public Record study. Job loss ranked as the top fear at 64%, leading in every state.

Concern ran from 71% in Iowa to 57% in Mississippi. It led among Democrats at 67% and Republicans at 62%.

“Americans with postgraduate degrees are nearly 10 percentage points more worried about job loss than those with a high school education or less,” the survey found. “At the same time, people who use AI at work every day are notably less worried about job loss than people who don’t use AI at all: 54% versus 70%.”

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Cognitive dependency followed at 56%, then misinformation at 52%. Only 15% of Americans said they trust AI companies to steer the technology. According to the findings,

“That was the lowest figure for any institution we tested, below the federal government (20%), state and local government (19%), and international bodies (20%), and far below independent experts (43%).”

AI Layoffs and a Billionaire Pushback

The fear is not abstract. BeInCrypto reported that AI drove 38,579 US job cuts in May, about 40% of the month’s total.

For 2026, employers have tied 87,714 cuts to AI. That total already exceeds the 54,836 attributed to the technology across all of 2025.

The pressure has reached Washington. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders have urged Congress to protect workers now.

Not everyone agrees. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos rejects the job-loss narrative, predicting that AI will create labor scarcity instead. Bezos made the case as his AI startup, Prometheus, raised $12 billion at a $41 billion valuation.

“A lot of people who, for example, today have two-earner households, perhaps one of those earners will choose not to be in the job market, so they’ll become a one-earner household,” Bezos said.

Americans Want Cures and Accountability

On the hopeful side, 48% placed curing diseases like cancer or Alzheimer’s in their top three uses for AI. Helping people with disabilities followed at 36%.

Support for oversight ran high. 71% of respondents want government involvement in AI, including 79% of Democrats and 68% of Republicans.

Asked how to keep AI development steered toward humanity’s interest, 47% backed holding companies legally liable for harm. Another 44% wanted safety prioritized over growth.

Anthropic plans to repeat the Anthropic Public Record as AI adoption deepens. The early reading shows a public eager for breakthroughs yet skeptical of the firms building them.

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The post Americans Fear AI Will Take Their Jobs, But Hope It Can Cure Cancer appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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TLDR:

• Strategy is raising over $130M daily in 2025, marking its highest-ever annual capital-raising pace. 
• Historical BTC data shows median 12-month forward returns of +133% from current price MA levels. 
• Even at a compressed 0.8x mNAV, covering preferred dividends would require only 6.6% dilution. 
• MSTR’s monthly trading volume of $54.79B dwarfs its $148M dividend bill, limiting dilution risk. 

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MSTR, MicroStrategy’s stock ticker, has become the center of a heated debate as Bitcoin market stress tests the company’s financial structure.

Analysts tracking the firm’s capital-raising activity say Strategy is not just holding on through the current downturn, it is actively accumulating Bitcoin at an accelerated pace.

The numbers behind this argument are drawing significant attention from both bulls and bears in the market.

MSTR’s Balance Sheet Withstands Bitcoin Market Pressure

Strategy’s capital-raising pace in 2025 is on track to be the highest in the company’s history. The firm is averaging over $130 million raised per trading day this year. Even if that access were completely shut off, the math still favors the company’s position.

To illustrate the scale, analyst Adam Livingston scaled the balance sheet down by one million times. At that ratio, the company holds $53,400 in Bitcoin and owes $1,712 annually in preferred dividends. That works out to roughly $148 per month, a negligible obligation relative to the asset base.

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🔥MSTR BEARS ABSOLUTELY DESTROYED🔥

Strategy’s risk profile is simply amazing, and even in this Bitcoin market stress we are seeing the highest annual capital raising pace for them ever.

Essentially, Strategy is not only surviving the bear market, they are thriving through it… pic.twitter.com/Ris1BSQHDT

— Adam Livingston (@AdamBLiv) June 13, 2026

Livingston also pulled Bitcoin’s weekly historical price data going back to July 2010. He filtered for periods where Bitcoin traded within ±5% of today’s four-year moving average multiple. That produced 34 historical weekly observations with full forward-return data.

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The median forward Bitcoin returns from those comparable historical points are striking: +50% over six months, +133% over 12 months, +232% over 18 months, and +306% over 24 months. If history holds, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings are positioned for a substantial recovery.

Stress-Testing the Nightmare Scenario for MSTR

Bears have pointed to preferred dividend obligations as a potential pressure point for Strategy. However, even under a severe stress test, the numbers suggest the concern is overstated. The analysis modeled a scenario where MSTR’s mNAV compresses from 1.3x to 0.8x.

At that compressed multiple, the stock would fall from roughly $123.97 to around $76. Market capitalization would drop from approximately $43.9 billion to $27 billion.

Even then, covering a full year of preferred dividends through common stock issuance would require only 6.6% dilution.

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On a monthly basis, that comes to roughly 0.55% dilution per month. Meanwhile, monthly MSTR dollar trading volume runs approximately $54.79 billion.

The monthly dividend bill of $148.35 million represents only 0.27% of that volume, a fraction that the market can absorb without disruption.

Strategy’s trading volume alone provides a natural buffer against the preferred dividend risk. The company does not need extraordinary measures to meet its obligations, even in a depressed market environment.

For investors who hold a constructive long-term view on Bitcoin, the argument that Strategy’s structure is unsustainable becomes increasingly difficult to support.

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