Bitcoin (BTC) is seeing a “textbook” bear-market bottom as speculators take profits on the trip toward $65,000.

Key points:

• Bitcoin is repeating previous macro bottom behavior in a “textbook” manner, analysis argues.
• Short-term holders are taking profits on minor recoveries — something “characteristic of a bull market.”
• Doubts remain about speculators avoiding future capitulation.

Analysis: Bitcoin bottom will “be very obvious in hindsight”

In their latest analysis on X, the Bitcoin quant account known as Frank, named for the famous economist Frank A. Fetter, doubled down on conviction that the worst of the BTC price downtrend is over.

“This is a textbook bitcoin bottom; I mean every bottom signal has flashed or is flashing, it’ll be very obvious in hindsight,” one post stated.

An accompanying chart showed the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) for BTC/USD, along with various quantiles. 

The ninth quantile is of particular interest, having marked reversals at the pit of the 2022 bear market and March 2020 COVID-19 crash. Price is now back in that reversal zone.

BTC/USD chart with 200-week SMA data. Source: Frank/X

Turning to short-term holders (STHs) — wallets holding BTC for up to six months without selling — another encouraging sign emerges.

For Frank, positive readings from the cohort’s spent output profit ratio (SOPR), which measures the proportion of STH coins moving onchain in profit or loss, are conspicuous.

“A key bitcoin metric might be signaling that a market shift is underway. Sth-sopr just flipped green as short-term holders are realizing profits,” they wrote. 

“The market treating short-term holders well is a characteristic of a bull market.”

Bitcoin STH-SOPR data. Source: Frank/X

Short-term holders may still see “capitulation”

The findings add to a growing consensus among market participants that the 2026 bear market has little time left to run.

Related: $60.4K Becomes ‘most important area’: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

As Cointelegraph reported, various onchain indicators and related price yardsticks are hitting levels not seen since 2022.

Adopting a more cautious view of STH-SOPR, meanwhile, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant warns that new lows in the metric could be needed first.

“In stronger bottoming zones, STH SOPR often drops much deeper as short-term holders capitulate and sell at large losses. However, the current level is not near the deeper capitulation area seen around 0.93 in previous local bottom zones,” contributor Trader Germini commented in a blog post on Wednesday. 

“This means the market has cooled down, but it has not yet shown a strong short-term holder capitulation signal.”

Bitcoin STH-SOPR data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Key Highlights

• Shares of SMCI advanced 4.67% following the unveiling of edge AI appliances

• Partnership with Red Hat and Everpure aims to streamline edge AI implementations

• The solution integrates Kubernetes, storage infrastructure, and edge computing hardware

• The system leverages Red Hat OpenShift for hybrid cloud AI operations

• Portworx by Everpure delivers Kubernetes-native storage for decentralized AI applications

Shares of Super Micro Computer, Inc. climbed 4.67% to reach $27.48 as the company strengthened its edge AI capabilities. The stock maintained strong momentum throughout the trading session, closing near its daily peak. The upward movement came after the company unveiled a new Kubernetes Edge AI appliance developed alongside Red Hat and Everpure.

Super Micro Computer, Inc., SMCI

Stock Performance Follows Edge AI Product Unveiling

Supermicro announced pre-validated Kubernetes Edge AI appliances designed for businesses operating computing infrastructure beyond traditional data centers. The integrated solution merges Supermicro’s hardware platform with Red Hat OpenShift and Portworx by Everpure. This combination delivers customers a pre-configured appliance engineered for accelerated implementation.

The product addresses the requirements of organizations deploying AI inference capabilities across geographically dispersed facilities. Target environments encompass retail outlets, manufacturing plants, telecommunications facilities, and isolated business operations. The company’s objective centers on minimizing configuration challenges for distributed infrastructure administrators.

According to the announcement, the appliance accommodates containers, virtual machines, and AI inference processing at remote locations. Customers gain access to an integrated ecosystem encompassing computation, storage, and administrative capabilities. The turnkey solution will be offered through Supermicro’s direct sales channels.

OpenShift Platform Enables Multi-Site Operations

Red Hat OpenShift serves as the foundational Kubernetes application platform within the new infrastructure. This platform enables organizations to deploy and oversee workloads spanning hybrid cloud architectures and edge environments. Through this integration, Supermicro delivers a standardized operational framework across diverse geographic deployments.

The company characterizes the offering as a fully validated, comprehensive solution. This methodology eliminates the requirement for independent validation across hardware components, software platforms, and storage infrastructure. The approach also accelerates deployment timelines for organizations with constrained on-premises technical resources.

This collaboration reinforces Supermicro’s position within the edge computing infrastructure market. The organization currently provides compact server platforms and edge devices across multiple configuration options. Its product lineup accommodates implementations ranging from standalone servers to comprehensive rack-mounted systems.

Everpure Integration Delivers Distributed Storage Capabilities

Portworx by Everpure contributes the Kubernetes-native storage and data orchestration component. This platform consolidates local storage resources on Supermicro edge computing platforms. Organizations can therefore operate fault-tolerant infrastructures without deploying conventional storage arrays at individual locations.

The storage architecture provides high availability, data safeguarding, and autonomous functionality during connectivity interruptions. This capability proves essential for remote installations that cannot rely on continuous centralized network access. Additionally, it enables organizations to implement uniform storage governance across edge and cloud environments.

Supermicro’s Data Center Building Block Solutions approach underpins this product introduction. This methodology employs validated building blocks to construct flexible infrastructure tailored to diverse customer requirements. The Red Hat and Everpure collaboration represents another strategic advancement in the company’s edge AI expansion efforts.

Elon Musk has confirmed that SpaceXAI will release its Grok 4.5 artificial intelligence model to the public on Thursday after completing beta testing, setting up a direct contest with OpenAI’s upcoming GPT-5.6 launch.

According to Elon Musk, the decision follows strong feedback from users who tested Grok 4.5 during its beta phase. In a post on X, Musk described the model as “an Opus-class model, but faster, more token-efficient, and lower cost,” adding that the public rollout will begin tomorrow. 

The announcement places Grok 4.5 alongside several major AI releases expected this week as competition between leading developers continues to accelerate.

At nearly the same time, OpenAI confirmed that its GPT-5.6 family, consisting of the Sol, Terra, and Luna models, will also become publicly available on Thursday. The announcement follows approval from the U.S. Commerce Department for a broad public launch, as previously reported by crypto.news. OpenAI’s choice of model names attracted attention within the crypto industry because they match names of some of the crypto industry’s best-known blockchain projects.

Last month, Anthropic added to the competitive landscape by releasing its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, which the company described as its most capable AI systems to date. Those models were temporarily restricted under U.S. export controls before the government later removed the limitations, allowing wider availability.

Grok 4.5 introduces a larger foundation model

Additional technical details shared by developer Tetsuo indicate that Grok 4.5 is built on xAI’s V9 foundation model, which contains roughly 1.5 trillion parameters. According to Tetsuo, the architecture is around three times larger than the v8-small model that powered Grok 4.3, making it the largest foundation model the company has released so far.

Tetsuo added that the model was trained on Nvidia Blackwell GPUs at the Colossus computing cluster in Memphis. He also stated that software development capabilities have become a central priority for Grok 4.5 after SpaceXAI incorporated developer data from Cursor into supplemental training. According to the developer, reinforcement learning has continued improving the model through the Grok Build training framework.

crypto.news previously reported that SpaceXAI completed its acquisition of Cursor, a move that expands the company’s access to software engineering datasets. Tetsuo noted that the next foundation model, which is already undergoing training, will include Cursor data from the beginning of the pre-training process rather than adding it later.

Monthly flagship releases form the long-term roadmap

Beyond the immediate launch, Tetsuo outlined a more aggressive release schedule for future models. He described Grok 4.5 as the first flagship model introduced under the merged SpaceXAI organization and said the company plans to ship a newly built foundation model every month through the end of 2026.

While Musk focused on Grok 4.5’s performance, speed, and operating cost, Tetsuo’s technical comments suggest that future versions will continue expanding coding capabilities through larger training datasets and updated reinforcement learning methods.

With Grok 4.5, OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 lineup, and Anthropic’s recently released models entering the market within weeks of one another, competition among leading AI developers is intensifying as each company pushes newer foundation models to public users and enterprise customers.

Key takeaways:

• War, rising oil prices and Strategy’s Bitcoin sales put extra pressure on BTC’s $60,000 support.
• Strategy’s Bitcoin sales and fears that a global regulatory crackdown on crypto is being reignited are adding to fragile crypto market conditions.

Bitcoin traded down 3.5% on Wednesday as new developments in the US-Iran war pushed oil prices higher and Japan’s bond markets faced renewed stress. That combination triggered broader de-risking across markets. At the same time, concerns over potential Bitcoin sales from Strategy intensified, with traders now bracing for a possible correction below $60,000.

Nasdaq-100 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s failed attempt to reclaim $64,500 on Monday coincided with a downtrend in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index. However, the stock market recovered some of its losses on Wednesday while Bitcoin was unable to bounce back from the $62,000 level. This underperformance suggests something else might be pressuring the cryptocurrency.

The surge in Brent crude oil to $74 from $68 the prior week raised inflationary risks due to disruptions in energy supplies following the official breakdown of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding. US President Donald Trump declared the deal “over” after US strikes targeted Iranian sites in response to vessel attacks.

Higher energy costs feed directly into broader price pressures, reducing the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts and limiting odds of economic stimulus packages. 

Implied odds for FED Funds target rate on Sept. 16. Source: CME FedWatch Tool

Traders are currently pricing 69% odds of interest rate hikes by September, up from 42% one month prior. This environment weighs heavily on risk assets, with Bitcoin still not widely perceived as an effective hedge.

Global economic uncertainty amid Strategy’s sell pressure

Adding to the cautious mood, President Trump demanded an end to US trade with Spain at the NATO summit, labeling the key ally a “wasted cause” for failing to commit to new defense spending targets. Such trade frictions risk slowing global economic activity and amplifying fears of global economic contraction.

Japan 10-year government bonds yield. Source: TradingView

In Japan, government bond yields jumped to a 30-year high, reflecting fears over a lack of central bank independence as the government attempts to adjust the Japan Central Bank’s policy mandate to “achieve a stronger economy.” Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries, which heightens the risk of global contagion.

The latest round of Bitcoin sales, totaling $216 million, announced by Strategy (MSTR US) on Monday, negatively surprised many after it was revealed that they occurred outside the core $1.25 billion Monetization Program. The company’s 8-K filings stated the program accounts only for proceeds used to fund its cash reserves.

Investors now fear persistent selling pressure from Strategy as the company manages its capital structure and debt obligations, with total annual dividends of $1.76 billion alone. Moreover, Strategy holds over $3.8 billion in convertible debt with the earliest call date before April 2027.

Related: Lyn Alden says Bitcoin needs no savior as Strategy sells $216M of BTC

Strategy convertible debt maturity and market value, USD. Source: Strategy

On the regulatory front, documents show India’s central bank strongly backing policies that lean toward prohibiting crypto activities, including barring banks from any exposure to virtual assets to safeguard financial stability. The India tax department additionally highlighted risks of evasion.

The signals of tightening global oversight add another layer of negative pressure on Bitcoin’s price and market sentiment. Bitcoin bears remain in control, with risk appetite diminishing due to socio-political instability, prospects of a more restrictive US Fed monetary stance, and Strategy’s ongoing cash needs.

Sentiment is likely to remain fragile, making a retest of the $60,000 support level increasingly probable in the near term.

Key Takeaways

• Bank of England confirms Farage’s lobbying had zero impact on digital pound strategy.
• Governor Bailey states the institution identified and rejected crypto-related pressure.
• Reform UK leader faces increasing questions about party funding and crypto donor connections.
• Connections to Tether-affiliated donors spark additional concerns about CBDC opposition.
• Central bank maintains digital pound development proceeds independently of political interference.

The Bank of England has confirmed that Nigel Farage’s attempts to sway its digital pound policy through direct lobbying proved unsuccessful. In a statement to Labour MP Joe Powell, Governor Andrew Bailey revealed that the institution successfully identified the lobbying efforts and maintained its independent stance. This disclosure has intensified examination of Farage’s connections to cryptocurrency-affiliated donors and the funding sources for Reform UK.

Central Bank Maintains Policy Independence After Farage Consultation

Bailey’s comments came in response to inquiries regarding a confidential September meeting with Farage at the Bank’s Threadneedle Street headquarters. During this consultation, multiple topics were discussed, including digital asset regulation and the Bank’s exploratory work on a digital pound. Officials confirmed that Farage’s representations resulted in no alterations to existing policy directions.

Farage had specifically pressed Bailey to abandon the central bank digital currency initiative. Speaking at a subsequent cryptocurrency industry gathering, he publicly acknowledged confronting Bailey about the programme. Bailey’s response emphasized the Bank’s capability to recognize advocacy efforts and maintain policy independence.

The controversy has acquired greater political significance following investigations into Farage’s financial backing. Reports suggest he received approximately £5 million from cryptocurrency entrepreneur Christopher Harborne. Harborne maintains business relationships with Tether, a prominent stablecoin operator that has publicly opposed central bank digital currency initiatives.

CBDC Controversy Intensifies Amid Reform UK Financial Questions

The BoE continues its exploratory work on a potential digital pound, though no implementation decision has been finalized. Bank officials emphasize that any progression would necessitate extensive additional research and comprehensive public engagement. Furthermore, both parliamentary approval and government backing would be prerequisites for any deployment.

Farage has consistently positioned himself against central bank digital currencies, characterizing them as potential infringements on individual liberty. He has additionally suggested connections between the digital pound concept and digital identity infrastructure. However, the Bank of England’s official proposals contain no such integration.

Tether representatives have actively campaigned against the Bank’s digital pound research programme. Their position emphasizes concerns that a government-backed digital currency could undermine the market for private stablecoins. These arguments have attracted renewed attention given Harborne’s partial ownership stake in Tether alongside his financial support for Reform UK.

Parliamentary Resignation Amplifies Scrutiny of Cryptocurrency Connections

Farage stepped down from his parliamentary seat this week while maintaining his innocence regarding allegations about financial disclosure requirements. He advocated for a by-election positioned as a referendum on establishment politics. Nevertheless, mainstream political parties announced they would not field candidates in such a contest.

The parliamentary standards investigation now subjects Reform UK to enhanced oversight. Labour parliamentarians have demanded investigations into whether Farage violated regulations governing lobbying activities. Bailey’s correspondence reinforces the Bank’s position that its policy development remained insulated from external political influence.

The Bank of England has also recently revised its regulatory framework for stablecoins following industry consultation. While it removed a proposed ceiling on stablecoin holdings, Bailey explicitly rejected suggestions that Farage influenced this modification. The central bank continues to assert that cryptocurrency policy formulation operates independently of political considerations.