Brent, WTI fell ~3–5% Monday after Trump’s 15% tariffs and easing Iran war risk.

President Donald Trump raised temporary tariffs from 10% to 15% on all U.S. imports over the weekend, according to a White House announcement. The increase followed a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down the previous tariff program.

Financial markets responded with gold prices rising and U.S. equity futures declining. Market analysts stated that oil prices were affected by the same risk-averse trading sentiment. Higher tariffs typically reduce trade volumes, weaken industrial output, and suppress fuel demand, factors that are considered bearish for crude prices, according to commodity analysts.

A third round of nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran is scheduled for Thursday in Geneva, Oman’s foreign minister confirmed. Iranian officials have indicated the country may offer concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, according to diplomatic sources.

Concerns about potential military conflict in the Middle East had recently supported higher oil prices, but that geopolitical risk premium has diminished as traders assign a lower probability to supply disruptions from the region, market observers said.

Goldman Sachs forecasts the global oil market will remain in surplus in 2026, assuming no major disruption to Iranian supply, the investment bank stated in a research note. The bank revised its fourth-quarter price forecasts, citing lower inventories among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries as a factor in its WTI adjustment.

Market direction remains uncertain in the short term due to unresolved factors including tariff policy, Iran diplomacy, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, suggesting continued volatility in oil prices, according to market analysts.

Crypto markets are flashing deep stress signals as geopolitical tensions surrounding a potential U.S. strike on Iran intensify and liquidity continues to drain from the system.

Iran strike fears spill into crypto markets

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 5 — “Extreme Fear”, one of the lowest readings in years, showing panic-level sentiment. Historically, such extreme readings have only appeared during major market dislocations, including the 2020 COVID crash and the 2022 bear market lows.

The collapse in sentiment mirrors Bitcoin’s sharp drop below key technical levels, reinforcing the view that traders are positioning defensively amid geopolitical uncertainty.

At the same time, prediction market Polymarket shows rising bets on possible U.S. military action in early March, with probabilities climbing steadily day by day, reflecting growing geopolitical uncertainty priced into markets.

Meanwhile, price action mirrors the anxiety. Bitcoin has fallen sharply from recent highs and is trading well below its 50-day moving average, while the broader crypto market has shed more than $2.22 trillion, down over 50% from its peak.

In a widely shared post, Coin Bureau warned that “CRYPTO MAY BE HEADING TOWARD ITS LARGEST CRASH EVER,” noting that the current drawdown is now the second-biggest dollar loss in history, just $60 billion shy of the all-time record.

Yet liquidity data suggests a more nuanced picture. Another Coin Bureau analysis highlighted that USDT supply has fallen by more than $3 billion in 60 days, a contraction last seen during the FTX collapse.

Historically, shrinking stablecoin supply signals capital leaving the market but similar conditions in 2022 marked Bitcoin’s cycle bottom.

Ultimately, while a potential U.S. strike on Iran could trigger another wave of short-term volatility, the data suggests markets may already be pricing in extreme risk. With sentiment at capitulation levels, over $2.22 trillion erased, and stablecoin liquidity contracting to levels previously seen near cycle lows, the conditions resemble late-stage selloffs more than the early phases of a collapse.

South Korea’s central bank has reportedly renewed its push to keep Korean won-pegged stablecoin issuance in the hands of commercial banks, warning lawmakers that privately issued digital tokens could undermine monetary policy and create new foreign-exchange and financial-stability risks.

In a report submitted to South Korea’s National Assembly Strategy and Finance Committee, the Bank of Korea (BOK) described won stablecoins as “currency-like substitutes” and said their introduction must account not only for industrial benefits but also for monetary policy, foreign exchange stability and financial risks, according to local reporting. 

The central bank reiterated concerns that stablecoins could be used to bypass foreign exchange regulations, including prior reporting requirements, and argued that allowing non-bank entities to issue them independently could conflict with Korea’s separation of banking and commerce principles. 

It added that banks, which are subject to capital, governance and compliance standards, should be permitted first, with any expansion beyond banks proceeding gradually after risk assessments. 

The report lands as lawmakers debate a delayed stablecoin framework, with one of the main sticking points being who should be eligible to issue won-pegged tokens and how much control banks should hold in any issuing entity.

Cointelegraph reached out to the Bank of Korea for more information, but had not received a response by publication.