Adjusted stablecoin transaction volume hit a record $1.79 trillion in June, up 63% from May’s $1.1 trillion, according to payments giant Visa.

June’s record stablecoin transaction volume surpassed the previous record of $1.78 trillion in February, and is up 125% from the prior-year period, according to Visa’s Allium-powered stablecoin analytics dashboard. 

“June 2026 was another record month for stablecoin transaction volume, just ahead of February 2026,” said Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, on Sunday. 

The sharp increase in stablecoin transaction volume suggests growing real-world use in payments, decentralized finance and cross-border transfers as crypto infrastructure matures. It comes despite a broader crypto bear market, suggesting that stablecoins have become a driving force in the industry. 

USDC has the lion’s share of volume

Despite Tether’s USDt being the largest stablecoin by market cap, the majority of the transaction volume, around 67%, was Circle’s USDC, with $1.21 trillion for the month. USDT accounted for around 32%, or $576 billion, according to Visa. 

PayPal’s PYUSD is the third-largest in terms of transaction volume, with $2.42 billion in June. 

There was just under $1.8 trillion in adjusted stablecoin transaction volume in June. Source: Visa

The most widely used network for stablecoin transactions in June was Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 network Base with $565 billion, or 31.5% of the total, closely followed by Ethereum with $562 billion. Tron was the third-highest with $320 billion, or about 18% of the total. 

Related: Revolut to delist USDT in August, citing regulatory and risk concerns

Visa collaborated with Artemis, Allium Labs and Castle Island Ventures to develop an adjusted transaction methodology that filters out “distracting metrics” such as high-frequency trading bots, exchange treasury rebalancing and repeated smart contract transactions to help better approximate organic stablecoin activity, the company said. 

Base and Ethereum dominated stablecoin volumes in June. Source: Visa

Meanwhile, another player has entered the crowded stablecoin market as Open Standard announced Open USD (OUSD) on Tuesday, with support from more than 140 payments, banking, technology and crypto companies, including Visa and Mastercard. 

Trend to continue as stablecoins mature

Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the record volume demonstrates the resilience of these assets amid the broader crypto bear market. 

“This surge underscores the growing role of stablecoins as essential infrastructure for value transfer, liquidity provision, and decentralized finance activity that persists independently of speculative price movements,” he said. 

Ruck predicted that the trend would continue with stablecoins “maturing into a foundational layer of the Web3 economy,” and are positioned for even greater reach as the market evolves.

Magazine: AI is banking the unbanked in Africa… faster than crypto

Binance users in France can no longer trade on the platform after the exchange missed the European Union’s MiCA approval deadline. From July 1, Binance stopped offering several services in France and other European countries where it lacks authorization under the bloc’s new crypto rules.

The change follows Binance’s wider MiCA service pause in Europe. French users can still withdraw assets, but spot and margin trading are no longer available. Binance previously served about 2 million users in France.

The company told affected users that “Your assets remain safe and secure,” according to earlier notices. It also encouraged users to move assets to a regulated platform or a personal wallet if they needed active access.

The service limits came after the MiCA transition period ended. Crypto firms now need approval from one EU member state to serve clients across the bloc.

French users move funds after trading halt

Some Binance users in France moved their crypto before the July 1 cutoff. Others waited for more clarity from the exchange. The platform still allows withdrawals, but users who want to trade must move funds elsewhere.

One user quoted by BFM Business said, “I repatriated my cryptos last weekend,” after choosing not to wait until the last minute. Another user said Binance left customers to handle the transfer process alone, adding, “You’re on your own.”

The case shows how a license delay can quickly change customer access. Many retail traders used Binance for active trading, leverage products, and quick crypto conversions. Those services are now limited in affected markets.

On-chain data cited in the report showed Binance recorded about $1.6 billion in net outflows over the past month. That figure remains small compared with about $114 billion in crypto assets still managed by the exchange.

Licensed exchanges target affected traders

The Binance pause has opened room for approved rivals. Crypto.news reported thatCoinbase and OKX targeted Binance users before the MiCA deadline. Both firms promoted access to regulated services as users reviewed where to trade next.

Coinbase targeted users across several European markets, including France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, Poland, Sweden, and the U.K. OKX also promoted offers for eligible users in the European Economic Area.

The timing matters because MiCA has changed how exchanges compete in Europe. Licensed firms can promote service continuity. Platforms without approval must restrict covered services or seek a new licensing route.

Crypto.news also reported that Germany and France led the MiCA rollout. As of June 29, the EU had issued 244 valid MiCA crypto-asset service provider licenses.

MiCA reshapes exchange access in Europe

MiCA is now the main rulebook for crypto service providers in the European Union. It covers exchanges, custodians, token issuers, and stablecoin providers. It also replaces many older national crypto rules with one EU-wide system.

The Binance case is one of the clearest tests of the new framework. The exchange says it wants to return with a license, but users in affected markets now have limited access until that happens.

The rule change has also affected stablecoins. Crypto.news reported that USDT was removed from regulated EU exchange order books after Tether did not seek MiCA authorization.

For users, the change is direct. Trading access now depends on whether an exchange holds MiCA approval. Binance remains open for withdrawals in affected markets, but normal trading depends on future authorization.

XRP finally pushed through the $1.14 level that had capped recent attempts higher, but the move did not run cleanly into the next resistance band. Buyers drove the token as high as $1.158 on heavy volume before sellers forced a pullback toward $1.146, turning the session into a test of whether former resistance can now act as support.

News Background

• XRP spot ETFs recorded a ninth consecutive week of net inflows, adding $17.19 million despite broader market uncertainty.

• The CLARITY Act missed its expected timeline after the Senate adjourned for recess without a floor vote, leaving regulatory catalysts delayed.

• Santiment data showed XRP’s 30-day MVRV near -45% and 365-day MVRV near -47%, meaning most holders remained underwater across both shorter and longer timeframes.

• Several analysts pointed to improving technical structures, including a 4-hour downtrend break, bullish divergence and a possible Elliott Wave advance.

Price Action Summary

• XRP rose from $1.1344 to $1.1454 during the 24-hour session, gaining 2.87%.

• The breakout came at 22:00 UTC on July 5, when volume reached 81.89 million XRP, about 207% above the 24-hour average.

• The move carried XRP from $1.1356 to $1.1594 in two hours, clearing resistance near $1.1400.

TL;DR

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $526.64 million in net outflows last week, extending their losing streak to eight consecutive weeks.
• Spot Ethereum ETFs also posted net outflows of $13.67 million, marking an eighth straight week of withdrawals.
• In contrast, SOL, XRP, and HYPE ETFs attracted fresh capital, with XRP ETFs leading weekly inflows.
• Analysts say ETF flows remain a key indicator of institutional sentiment as investors monitor Bitcoin’s next market direction.

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued to face heavy selling pressure last week, recording $526.64 million in net outflows between June 29 and July 2. The latest withdrawals mark the eighth consecutive week of net outflows, the longest weekly redemption streak since spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in the United States. 

The trend reflects continued caution among institutional investors as Bitcoin struggles to regain momentum. According to SoSoValue data, total net assets across U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have fallen to approximately $74.37 billion, while Bitcoin traded near $61,500 during the reporting period, as shown in the accompanying chart. The sustained redemptions come after June became the worst month on record for spot Bitcoin ETFs, with roughly $4.5 billion leaving the products. 

Spot Ethereum ETFs also remained under pressure, posting $13.67 million in net outflows over the same period. Like Bitcoin funds, Ethereum ETFs have now logged eight straight weeks of investor withdrawals, highlighting persistent risk-off sentiment across the two largest digital assets. 

Altcoin ETFs Buck the Trend as SOL, XRP, and HYPE Attract Fresh Capital

While Bitcoin and Ethereum products continued to lose assets, several newer crypto ETFs managed to attract fresh investment.

Spot Solana (SOL) ETFs recorded $5.75 million in weekly net inflows, while XRP ETFs brought in $17.19 million, making XRP the strongest performer among the major altcoin funds. Hyperliquid (HYPE) ETFs also remained in positive territory with $4.32 million in net inflows, although the figure represented a slowdown compared with previous weeks.

The divergence suggests that some investors are rotating capital into alternative digital assets rather than exiting the crypto ETF market entirely. Although Bitcoin remains the largest institutional investment vehicle in the sector, selective demand for altcoin-based products indicates that investors continue to seek exposure to projects they believe offer stronger upside potential.

Bitcoin ETFs Face Mounting Pressure Despite Brief Daily Recovery

Despite the weak weekly performance, the reporting period ended with a small sign of stabilization. On July 2, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $221 million in daily net inflows, breaking a 10-session outflow streak. However, analysts caution that a single positive trading day is unlikely to reverse the broader trend after eight consecutive weeks of withdrawals. 

Market observers attribute the prolonged outflows to a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, higher interest-rate expectations, and reduced appetite for risk assets. Bitcoin has remained under pressure alongside broader financial markets, while institutional investors continue trimming exposure through ETF redemptions. 

Going forward, ETF flows are expected to remain a closely watched indicator of institutional sentiment. A sustained return to net inflows could signal renewed confidence in Bitcoin, while continued withdrawals may reinforce expectations of subdued demand until broader market conditions improve.

Asia’s crypto market is moving in different directions. Dubai and Taiwan are building formal licensing systems, while India and Russia are keeping state control at the center of digital asset policy.

Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority granted its 50th virtual asset service provider license to Tribe Tokenisation FZE. The milestone puts Dubai ahead of Hong Kong and Singapore by reported license totals, though license numbers do not show how many firms are active or how much business they handle.

Taiwan also moved ahead with its new crypto and stablecoin law. The law requires virtual asset service providers to get approval from the Financial Supervisory Commission before operating in the market.

Stablecoin issuers in Taiwan must also receive approval from the central bank and the FSC. They must keep enough reserves with a trustee and go through regular audits. The law gives Taiwan a clearer crypto framework as Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong compete for regulated digital asset firms.

India and Russia keep state control in focus

India’s central bank renewed its push to keep banks away from crypto and private stablecoins. The Reserve Bank of India reportedly told lawmakers that banks should avoid direct crypto exposure, while tokenized government securities and regulated financial products should be treated separately.

The RBI also reportedly warned that applying normal financial rules to speculative crypto assets could make users believe those assets carry official protection. Its position shows that India may support regulated tokenization while keeping crypto payments and settlements under pressure.

This follows wider regulatory pressure in India. Crypto.news recently reported that India’s USDT premium doubled after enforcement action disrupted stablecoin supply. India’s Financial Intelligence Unit has also sought large OTC crypto trade records from major exchanges.

Russia is taking another route through state-backed digital money. The country plans to launch the digital ruble on Sept. 1. Central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina reportedly said “everyone is ready” for the rollout.

Bitcoin firms make opposite treasury moves

Japan’s SBI Crypto will close its Bitcoin mining pool on July 31 after five years. SimpleMining data placed the pool as the 12th largest globally, with about 21.46 EH/s and 2.24% of the Bitcoin network share.

SBI Crypto asked miners to keep directing hashrate to the pool until the final day so final payouts can be calculated. The company said, “We would sincerely appreciate your continued support by mining with us until the final day of operation.”

Corporate Bitcoin activity also moved in opposite directions. Metaplanet bought 2,823 BTC in the second quarter, lifting its holdings to 43,000 BTC, according to a crypto.news report.

South Korea’s K Wave Media took the other side of the trade. The Nasdaq-listed company sold its remaining 88 BTC to repay $6 million in debt, ending its Bitcoin treasury strategy after earlier plans to build a larger position.

Tokenization and compliance shape Asia’s next stage

Tokenization also stayed in focus. Bank of Korea governor Hyun Song Shin said “The big prize is tokenizing government bonds” during a panel at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal.

Shin said tokenized bonds could make collateral checks and account crediting easier. He also described plans to connect tokenized government bonds, wholesale CBDCs and tokenized bank deposits through a unified ledger under Project Hangang.

Compliance pressure continued outside Asia as well. As crypto.news reported, Tether froze USDT in 131 ISIS-K-linked TRON wallets after OFAC added 134 crypto wallet identifiers tied to the group.

Kazakhstan also moved deeper into the regional crypto race. Solana Company signed an agreement to support Alatau City, a planned digital-first megacity. The project aims to build blockchain and crypto infrastructure as Kazakhstan works to expand its digital asset market.

Ether (ETH) led crypto majors into Monday as bitcoin held above $63,000, steadying after a week that pulled it off its lows and back to its highest in more than a month.

Bitcoin traded around $63,207, little changed on the day but up 5.5% over seven days, per CoinDesk data. Ether was the stronger performer over the week, up 12.4% to about $1,777, while BNB and dogecoin each gained around 5.5%. Solana held near $80.77 with an 11.2% weekly rise and Hyperliquid’s HYPE led the majors, up 14.6% on the week. XRP traded at $1.14, up 9.4% over seven days.

The gains held even as the backdrop turned cautious. A rebound in semiconductor and technology shares lost steam, reviving doubts about how durable this year’s AI-driven rally is. South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.4% as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix declined, and an MSCI gauge of Asian chipmakers slipped.

Brent crude fell 0.6% to about $71.70 a barrel, easing some inflation pressure ahead of the U.S. price data due later this month.

The dollar strengthened against all its major peers, a headwind for crypto that has tracked the currency’s moves through the past quarter.

European regulators and central bankers are warning that the financial risks posed by “agentic” and increasingly autonomous artificial intelligence may be arriving faster than legal and supervisory frameworks can adapt. Their message is less about whether AI will be used in finance, and more about how it could behave under stress—when liquidity thins, volatility rises, and systems that rely on machine decision-making are pushed beyond normal operating conditions.

In recent remarks across Europe, officials raised concerns ranging from market-wide instability caused by faulty AI-driven trading to a widening gap between rapid AI development and the slower cadence of rulemaking. They also linked the issue to broader financial stability risks, including leverage and potential “boom-bust” dynamics in AI-linked asset markets.

Key takeaways

• Central bankers warn rulemaking may lag agentic AI: officials said traditional regulatory cycles struggle when AI technologies shift in weeks or months.
• Volatility could be amplified during stress: Bank of England deputy governor Sarah Breeden suggested AI could worsen market disruptions unless guardrails exist.
• Security and defense funding remain a weak point: ECB president Christine Lagarde argued cybersecurity risks are becoming more severe as models accelerate.
• AI leverage and refinancing risks are on regulators’ radar: warnings from the BIS and IMF pointed to debt-asset maturity mismatches and disruptive feedback loops.

Why European officials think agentic AI changes the risk equation

Bank of England deputy governor Sarah Breeden is among the central bankers arguing that agentic AI—systems that can act with a degree of autonomy—could intensify instability during periods of market stress. Speaking at the European Central Bank’s annual meeting in Sintra, Portugal, on Tuesday, Breeden raised the question of whether regulators should implement guardrails that function like “circuit breakers” or “kill switches,” designed to limit or stop market-wide trading if faulty AI models trigger a meltdown. In her remarks, she emphasized the potential for automation to turn localized errors into systemic disruptions.

The concern is not merely that AI could make trading decisions faster, but that it could create correlated behavior across market participants. When multiple systems respond similarly to the same signals—particularly under stress—small model failures could cascade into larger price swings.

Breeden also tied the issue to the competitive landscape for AI development. She noted that US companies lead in AI investment and frontier model development, while Europe’s financial system offers fewer capital channels into AI than US equity markets. She warned that regulating “too cautiously” could widen this gap further if AI firms seek out jurisdictions with less burdensome compliance requirements.

Regulation cycles can’t keep up, watchdogs say

Other regulators echoed Breeden’s core point: the speed of AI innovation makes conventional policymaking approaches ill-suited. Nikhil Rathi, CEO of the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority, told CNBC’s Squawk Box on Thursday that traditional regulation cycles do not work when the technology evolves rapidly. As he put it, some AI-related technologies move in weeks or months, which means a “traditional cycle of rulemaking simply doesn’t work.” He argued that regulators need “new tools” and a more collaborative way of working with markets.

This view is consistent with the broader European stance that governance frameworks must be designed to handle iterative updates and rapid deployment. In practice, that suggests supervisors may need to focus not only on static compliance at launch, but also on how models are monitored and controlled as they change over time.

At the same time, central bankers have repeatedly linked the discussion to other parts of the financial system, including cyber risk and market integrity. Those overlap points matter to crypto markets as well, since many on-chain and off-chain infrastructures rely on automated processes, and crypto trading systems can react quickly to market signals.

Cybersecurity and “defense” gaps are worsening with model acceleration

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, warned in an interview with Les Echos on Thursday that AI technology poses a “major risk.” She contrasted today’s environment with the past decade, when regulators focused on cybersecurity threats such as hacking, data theft, and other forms of compromise.

Lagarde said the acceleration and deeper capabilities of AI models create a “much more serious risk,” partly because events can unfold quickly and partly because effective defense mechanisms and the funding needed to build them have not yet been fully found. Her remarks reframed cybersecurity from a slow-moving threat landscape into a faster feedback environment where response times and resourcing become critical.

From an investor and operator standpoint, that framing implies that AI-related risk management may need to cover not only model accuracy, but also the systems surrounding them—access controls, incident response capabilities, monitoring, and the ability to contain harms when something goes wrong.

Boom-bust warnings: leverage, asset pricing, and macro feedback loops

Separate from concerns about trading autonomy, European and global institutions have also flagged the possibility that AI-linked market activity could create financial stability vulnerabilities. On June 28, the Bank for International Settlements warned that “AI exuberance” could lead to major financial consequences.

The BIS noted that if central banks tighten policy to help contain inflation, it could trigger a sharp pullback in AI-related asset prices after a prolonged period of risk-taking. It warned that this could generate “disruptive macro-financial feedback loops.” In other words, asset price declines could impact broader financial conditions in a way that feeds back into the real economy, tightening conditions further and potentially worsening the initial downturn.

Breeden added a related observation in her Sintra remarks: debt financing has been rising rapidly, and she judged that the financial stability consequences of any fall in AI-related asset prices could increase. That emphasis on leverage suggests regulators are concerned not just with valuations, but with how funding structures could transmit shocks.

The IMF also contributed to the discussion. Tobias Adrian, Director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, said in an interview with Bloomberg on June 30 that there is a “potential maturity mismatch” between the duration of physical assets and the duration of debt. The risk here is that companies or sectors may face refinancing pressure at the same time cash flows deteriorate—creating a pressure point that can amplify stress.

What comes next for markets watching AI risk controls

The immediate takeaway for market participants is that supervisors may increasingly push for risk management expectations that reflect fast-moving AI deployment—covering both operational safeguards (including cybersecurity and “circuit breaker”-style controls) and financial stability concerns tied to leverage. Investors should watch whether regulators move toward more dynamic oversight frameworks for AI-driven systems and whether AI-related financing conditions change as monetary policy expectations evolve.

TLDR:

• Bitcoin price reclaimed the $63,500 area after volatile trade, keeping the short-term structure constructive while $65,700 stays the next upside test.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in fresh demand after a long outflow streak, giving buyers a stronger institutional signal after June’s weakness.
• Weak U.S. labor data cooled rate-hike fears, helping BTCUSD as Treasury yields eased and traders moved back into selected risk assets.
• A break below $63,500 could shift attention toward $61,000, while sustained support may force more short-covering near resistance.

Bitcoin price traded near $63,173 on Monday after a volatile session around the reclaimed $63,500 area. BTCUSD moved between $62,468 and $63,874, showing fast movement around a key support zone. 

The move followed weaker U.S. labor data, renewed spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, and short liquidations near $62,000. Traders are now watching whether Bitcoin can hold $63,500 and retest $65,700, where the last major rejection developed.

Bitcoin Price Holds Key Support After ETF Inflows Return

Bitcoin price action improved after U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $221.7 million in net inflows. The daily intake ended a 10-day outflow streak and marked the strongest inflow in about two months. That shift mattered as June had damaged sentiment across institutional crypto products.

The inflow also arrived as Bitcoin reclaimed the $63,500 zone. Analyst That Martini Guy says the first rejection at that level looked normal. He added that prior resistance rarely breaks on the first attempt.

The technical setup now depends on whether buyers defend the area. Holding $63,500 keeps the short-term structure constructive. A clean push above it could put $65,700 back in focus.

A loss of $63,500 would weaken the rebound. The next downside area sits near $61,000, based on the analyst’s chart view. That level would show whether recent buying was durable or only a relief move.

Spot demand and derivatives flows also shaped the rally. Short sellers were exposed after Bitcoin moved above $62,000. Forced buybacks then added speed to the recovery and lifted BTC through crowded intraday levels.

The setup is still fragile. Bitcoin price has recovered support, but it has not cleared the last rejection zone. Buyers need steady volume and follow-through before the move looks more durable.

Fed Minutes And Labor Data Put BTCUSD Traders On Alert

Bitcoin price also gained support from softer U.S. labor data. June nonfarm payrolls rose by only 57,000, below expectations for 110,000. May job gains were revised lower, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% as labor force participation dropped.

That report lowered fears of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. Treasury yields eased, the dollar softened, and risk appetite improved. Lower yields often help non-yielding assets, including Bitcoin and gold.

This week brings more macro risk for BTCUSD traders. The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its June meeting on Wednesday. The minutes could show how officials judged inflation risks under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Investors will also monitor services PMI, ADP employment data, and jobless claims. These numbers may shape rate expectations before earnings season starts. A stronger inflation or labor signal could pressure the Bitcoin price again.

For now, traders are weighing two opposing forces. ETF inflows and reclaimed support favor another test higher. Yet June’s heavy outflows, weak liquidity, and regulatory pressure in Europe still limit conviction.

Bitcoin price needs sustained spot demand to extend the recovery. A hold above $63,500 keeps $65,700 in play. Failure there could reopen the $61,000 area as traders reassess leverage and macro risk.

TLDR:

• Polymarket political bets from U.S.-linked wallets reached $571 million in 12 months, topping every other tracked country despite the ban.
• Allium said country-level wallet tags cover only about 6% of political-market wallets, making the data directional rather than exact.
• U.S.-linked wallets favored geopolitical prediction markets, with foreign conflict bets taking a larger share than election contracts.
• American wallets won resolved bets at nearly the same rate as other users, showing bolder positioning rather than a clear trading edge.

Polymarket political bets from U.S.-linked wallets reached about $571 million over the past year, even though the platform cannot legally serve American users. The figure, reported by on-chain analysis firm Allium, placed the United States ahead of every other tracked country. Hong Kong followed with $422 million in political market volume.

The data highlights a sharp gap between official restrictions and actual user behavior. Polymarket blocks U.S. users through IP checks. Yet crypto wallets, stablecoins, and VPN access appear to keep the offshore market open to American traders.

Polymarket Political Bets Expose Weak U.S. Access Controls

Polymarket political bets show how hard geographic blocks are to enforce on crypto rails. A traditional financial platform can reject an account, block a bank payment, or stop a broker connection. Polymarket works differently, as users interact through wallets and stablecoins.

That structure leaves fewer points of control. A VPN can mask a location, while a crypto wallet can settle trades without a bank in the middle. Allium’s tracking looked at wallet behavior instead of IP addresses, so the same VPN that bypasses access controls does not erase on-chain patterns.

The firm added an important limit. It can link only about 6% of political-market wallets to a specific country. That means the $571 million figure should not be treated as a precise total. Still, the scale points to strong U.S. demand for offshore prediction markets.

The finding also raises a harder regulatory question. Polymarket’s ban may satisfy a legal access rule, yet it does not fully stop U.S.-linked wallets from trading. Instead, activity moves to a venue outside direct U.S. oversight.

Geopolitical Markets Pull More U.S.-Linked Wallet Activity

The bigger surprise is what American wallets traded. U.S.-linked wallets put 46% of their political volume into geopolitics, compared with 36% across Polymarket overall. Elections accounted for only 16% of U.S. volume, while the full platform average stood near 32%.

That split suggests American traders used Polymarket political bets less for election speculation and more for foreign conflict markets. Iran-related contracts were especially active. Five of the twelve largest U.S. wallet markets involved bets linked to an Iran conflict.

At one stage, American wallets placed 53% of their volume on a U.S. invasion of Iran. The rest of the platform stood at 26% on the same theme. That gap shows higher conviction among U.S.-linked wallets, though not better accuracy.

The largest single U.S.-linked market was more unusual. A contract on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would wear a suit drew $20.8 million in trading volume. That market shows how offshore prediction markets list contracts that regulated U.S. venues often avoid.

Kalshi and compliant U.S. prediction venues focus more on elections, economic data, and rate decisions. Offshore polymarket markets include ceasefires, regime change, and war-related outcomes. That difference appears to pull U.S.-linked wallets toward the markets domestic rules restrict.

Resolved market data did not show a major U.S. betting edge. American wallets backed winners 81.9% of the time, close to 80.3% for other users. The main distinction was not accuracy. It was stronger interest in politically sensitive markets beyond U.S. regulatory reach.