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A 43% Projection Is Calling the Gold vs Silver Winner as Oil Cools

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Gold-Silver Ratio Daily Chart

The gold vs silver divergence has widened sharply this month. Silver (XAG/USD) is up 15.47% against gold’s (XAU/USD) 6% gain as Brent crude slides below $99 on continuing de-escalation talks.

The gap is not random. Proprietary indicators, options flows, and chart structure all lean the same way, though one structural force still defends gold’s downside.

Three Forces Are Separating Gold from Silver

The gold-silver ratio has formed an inverted cup and handle since late March. The ratio now presses against the handle’s lower trendline. A clean breakdown would extend silver’s lead, while a reclaim of the pattern’s upper bound would neutralize the silver-friendly setup.

Its handle low sits near 58, and a break below that level targets a further 16% compression, meaning silver extends the lead. A reclaim of 68 flips it back toward gold.

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Gold-Silver Ratio Daily Chart
Gold-Silver Ratio Daily Chart: TradingView

Silver’s Solar Lag Model, which tracks silver against solar-demand-driven industrial flows with a 10-day lag, has crossed above zero for the first time since late 2025. The November 28 cross preceded silver’s multi-week rally.

Silver vs Solar Lag Model
Silver vs Solar Lag Model: TradingView

Gold’s Real Yields Lag Model, BeInCrypto’s proprietary indicator, which measures gold’s path against 10-year real yields, is rolling the other way. It peaked at 2.685 earlier this month and now reads 0.308. Its slope mirrors the February rollover that broke below zero and bottomed at -3.497 during gold’s correction.

Real Yields Lag Model
Real Yields Lag Model:TradingView

One structural force still defends gold. Central banks now hold roughly 38,666 tons, about 17% of all gold ever mined, according to data cited by The Kobeissi Letter. Even if gold loses the relative race to silver, its downside is cushioned by a buyer base that does not respond to short-term macro rotations.

Taken together, the ratio is compressing in silver’s favor, silver’s industrial lag model is climbing, and gold’s monetary premium is fading, while central bank demand keeps gold’s floor intact rather than lifting it higher. The scoreboard reads three forces for silver, one defensive line for gold.

Positioning data shows whether options traders are reading the divergence the same way.

Options Traders Stack Long on One, Stay Balanced on the Other

Options activity on the iShares Silver Trust (SLV ETF), the largest silver-backed fund and the main proxy traders use to position on silver without touching futures, has turned sharply bullish since late March.

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The put-call volume ratio, where a reading below one means calls outnumber puts, has dropped from 0.77 on March 26 to 0.49 on April 21. The open interest ratio has fallen from 0.60 to 0.56 over the same window. Call activity is outpacing put activity on both intraday and structural horizons.

SLV implied volatility sits at 54.26% with an IV Percentile of 69%, meaning options are pricing expected movement above most of the past year’s range. Traders are leaning long and paying up for the range.

Want more insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Newsletter here.

SLV Put-Call Ratio
SLV Put-Call Ratio: Barchart

Positioning on the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD ETF), the equivalent physical-backed vehicle for gold exposure, looks different. The volume ratio has dropped from 1.35 on March 26 to 0.87, a shift from bearish to mildly bullish. The open interest ratio has barely moved from 0.53 to 0.54. Traders have stopped stacking downside protection on gold but have not rotated into aggressive call accumulation either.

GLD Put-Call Ratio
GLD Put-Call Ratio: Barchart

With indicators and positioning pointing the same way, the charts become the decider.

The Gold vs Silver Verdict Rests on Two Inverse Setups

The silver price (XAG/USD) daily chart has been carving out an inverse head and shoulders, a bullish reversal shape made of three lows with the middle one being the deepest. The pattern’s head sits near $60, and the neckline runs close to $80. The right shoulder’s buying volume sits marginally above its matching selling volume, offering subtle confirmation of strength

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A clean break above the $80 to $83 zone would activate a 43% projection toward roughly $115, pushing price near the $121 all-time high. The optimistic extension sits at $133 as a stretch target. A drop below $75 weakens the structure, a move under $69 risks invalidation, and a breach of $60 ends the bullish thesis.

Silver Price Analysis
Silver Price Analysis: TradingView

Gold price is building the same pattern but with weaker confirmation. The right shoulder’s selling volume pillar sits above the matching buy volume, the opposite of silver’s read, showing weaker strength. The neckline sits near $4,848, and a confirmed break above that level opens a 24% path to $5,934 from the neckline. That upside is roughly half of silver’s measured move.

Gold Price Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: TradingView

The gold-silver ratio from earlier provides the deciding context as the pattern too favors silver for now.

In the gold vs silver race, silver holds the volume confirmation, the cleaner options flow, and the larger projection. However, gold’s safe haven floor rests on central bank demand. Silver’s break above $80 opens a path to $115 and extends the lead. But a rejection there and a loss of $75 could hand momentum back to gold.

The post A 43% Projection Is Calling the Gold vs Silver Winner as Oil Cools appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Adam Back Addresses Satoshi Nakamoto Rumors at LONGITUDE Paris

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Adam Back Addresses Satoshi Nakamoto Rumors at LONGITUDE Paris

Blockstream CEO Adam Back, the British cryptographer and inventor of Hashcash, said it’s “flattering” that people think he’s Satoshi Nakamoto and was probably the result of his being a little too “talkative” on the cypherpunk mailing list that started it all. 

Back was speaking in a fireside chat with Cointelegraph at the recent LONGITUDE event in Paris, co-hosted by crypto exchange OKX, with discussions centered on crypto regulation, market structure and the growth of stablecoins.

Adam Back denies renewed suggestions that he invented Bitcoin

“It is flattering in some sense that they think you could have done it,” Back told Cointelegraph, reflecting on the widely publicized New York Times article on April 8 that suggested he is Satoshi, a claim he has denied. 

Back said there is a logical reason people think he’s Bitcoin’s creator. “The problem for me is I was very talkative on the mailing list,” he said, referring to the 1992 Cryptography Mailing List, where Satoshi later introduced the Bitcoin white paper in October 2008.

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“So anytime anyone was talking about electronic cash, I was right there, I was the reply guy with something to say about it,” he said. 

Blockstream CEO Adam Back speaking at LONGITUDE. Source: Cointelegraph

Back said the mystery behind Satoshi is an “interesting question” that he and others in the industry have pondered but never answered.

Prior to the fireside with Back, the event also featured three panels covering the role of traditional financial institutions in Web3, the need for clearer regulation and the pace of stablecoin adoption, alongside a separate fireside chat with OKX Europe CEO Erald Ghoos.

MiCA is “extremely beneficial,” but brings risks to innovation

Crypto industry executives said recent moves to regulate the industry have been positive for improved clarity, but regulatory fragmentation and overregulation could hurt innovation. 

In an onstage interview, Ghoos shed light on the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, a framework with which OKX Europe was deemed fully compliant in January 2025.

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“I think MiCA is extremely beneficial for the industry,” Ghoos said, explaining that it has helped to build trust in crypto. 

OKX Europe CEO Erald Ghoos speaking to Cointelegraph journalist Ciaran Lyons at LONGITUDE. Source: Cointelegraph

“Now it is a fully regulated asset class, which is very important,” Ghoos said, adding that industry participants will be “vetted and held up to the highest standards.”

However, he warned that the “regulatory burden” could slow innovation across Europe.

“Right now, because there is such a big and heavy regulatory overhead for startups, I do fear even more that the innovation and the great entrepreneurship that we have in Europe will start to shift to other jurisdictions around the world,” he said.

CertiK CEO Ronghui Gu said the lack of a unified global framework is a pain point for the industry.

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“For developers, for crypto companies in different regions, they are still under different compliance frameworks,” Gu said. 

Commenting on the proposed US CLARITY Act, which has been delayed largely because of unresolved issues around stablecoin yields impact on the banking system, Gu said that while the bill aims to bring structure, “many terms are not that clear to be honest, and a little bit vague.” 

“I think different firms have different interpretations and so on,” he added.

Ronghui Gu speaking at LONGITUDE. Source: Cointelegraph

“But I would say it definitely gives a much more friendly environment to crypto companies, to developers,” he added.

Cardano Foundation CEO Frederik Gregaard said he is “very confident” the CLARITY Act will pass soon, adding: “You feel the vibration from the policymakers saying we are going to adopt this,” he said.

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“They are super stoked about it,” Gregaard added.

Frederik Gregaard speaking at LONGITUDE. Source: Cointelegraph

“When this passes, from the non-TradFi adoption, you are going to see 100X,” Gregaard said, arguing that “classical industries” have been waiting for clarity before embracing the technology.

US Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina said on Monday that he does not expect the Senate Banking Committee to mark up the legislation, also known as the CLARITY Act, in April and has recommended that Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott schedule it for next month.

Payments industry does a good job of “almost faking” real-time payments

Mastercard’s senior vice president for blockchain and digital assets, Christian Rau, said that stablecoins are “very well suited for payment purposes” during a panel with Stella Development Foundation chief business officer Raja Chakravorti and Ethereum Foundation enterprise lead Matthew Dawson.

“They don’t come with the volatility of other digital assets, given that they enjoy regulatory clarity in a lot of the world,” Rau said.

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Rau said the traditional payments industry does a “good job of almost faking real-time payments.”

“When I tap my card, it says transaction approved or payment made…it’s authorization, clearing, and settlement,” he said.

“A lot of the things that work arguably very well today, they still come with time delays, costs, and so forth,” he added.

Related: How Mastercard plans to settle card payments with stablecoins

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Meanwhile, Stella Foundation’s Chakravorti pointed to the roughly $317 billion in stablecoin circulation, which is up about 50% from last year, adding that he is starting to see some short-term cooling.

“Although to be clear, over the last two quarters, that’s started to slow down a little bit,” calling it a positive sign as it suggests parts of the underlying infrastructure are starting to mature.

“I think this next transition is local stablecoins, because people are now very focused on creating that opportunity in their economy as super important,” he said.

Chakravorti pointed to the “last mile” as one of the biggest hurdles for adoption, referring to the challenge of turning digital assets into something “workable” inside local financial systems.

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“I think it is the absolute key, ultimately, that is where all the friction lies within this system,” he said.

Magazine: Adam Back says current demand is ‘almost’ enough to send Bitcoin to $1M