Ethereum’s Ether (ETH) could slip toward the $1,200 region in the coming weeks, as a fractal-driven setup highlighted by trader Leshka.eth points to a potential deeper pullback if key support gives way. The analyst emphasizes a daily Supertrend pattern that has preceded outsized declines when bearish flips have failed to hold.

Historically, the pattern produced notable reversals: bullish flips that failed to sustain gains in October 2025 and January 2026 culminated in sharp drops of roughly 45% and 48%, respectively. The current formation forms near $1,990, and the trader warned that a break below that level could open the path toward the $1,200 zone. As Leshka.eth put it: “If that level breaks, the next target is the $1,200 zone.”

The narrative sits alongside a broader chart look that ties the bearish setup to a measured downside target from a bear-flag pattern on ETH’s daily chart, signaling a test of lower levels if momentum remains negative. The Ethereum price context has shifted as the market contends with a softer macro backdrop and a tug-of-war between risk appetite and liquidity considerations.

On the price action front, ETH has erased more than 17% from its monthly high in a little over two weeks. The pullback comes as Ether futures and spot sentiment loosen, with Ether ETFs reportedly registering net outflows of about $300 million in that span. Market observers describe the demand for Ethereum as having cooled to one of its weakest levels in 16 months, adding to the headwinds for a near-term recovery.

In the broader market backdrop, macro forces are not supportive of an immediate rebound. Risk appetite has waned amid geopolitical headwinds and recession concerns, while bond traders have pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts beyond December 2027, according to probabilities tracked by CME’s FedWatch tool. The combination of softer macro signals and cleaner liquidity dynamics has kept ETH in a fragile zone even as short-term liquidity remains plentiful in some pockets of the market.

Key takeaways

• Bearish fractal setup on ETH’s daily chart points to a possible drop to $1,200 if the near-term level around $1,990 is breached, reaffirming a risk of deeper downside rather than a quick bounce.
• Historical occurrences where similar bullish flips failed have preceded sharp declines of roughly 45% to 50%, underscoring the difficulty of a sustained reversal in this pattern.
• On-chain demand signals show weak conviction among large and mid-size holders, with mega-whales (>10,000 ETH) flattening and mid-tier cohorts not reaccumulating decisively, suggesting limited downside protection from holders at present.
• The macro environment and ETF flows temper near-term momentum, with outflows and recession concerns weighing on Ethereum’s immediate prospects even as staking activity and exchange-supply dynamics offer a more complex longer-term picture.

Bearish fractal signals and price structure

The proposed bearish path hinges on a Supertrend-based pattern observed on ETH’s daily chart. The Supertrend, a trend-following indicator that changes color to mark direction, has previously produced brief bullish flips that did not stick. In the two notable prior instances—October 2025 and January 2026—the price rose briefly above the upper band only to fail and slide aggressively once the band’s support failed to hold. The current setup centers near $1,990, with the implication that a break below that crumb could activate the next leg lower toward the $1,200 zone. This aligns with a broader bear-flag interpretation that yields a measured downside target consistent with a sharper decline if support fails.

Trading-view charts referenced by the analyst illustrate a pattern where the price dropped decisively after the upper-band break and the subsequent loss of support, reinforcing the risk of a renewed downtrend if the current formation cannot sustain upward momentum. While such fractals do not guarantee outcomes, they provide a framework for assessing risk in a market dominated by macro uncertainty and shifting liquidity conditions.

On-chain behavior and holder conviction

Beyond price patterns, on-chain metrics paint a mixed picture of ETH demand. Glassnode data show that accumulation signals remain tepid across major wallet cohorts. For instance, mega-whale addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH have flattened after peaking in late 2025, and the 30-day change across this cohort has moved back toward neutral after extended declines. That pattern suggests that the biggest holders have not been stepping in with renewed aggression to back a sustained rally.

The story is similar for smaller but meaningful cohorts. Ethereum wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH remain well below their late-2025 highs, with the 30-day change hovering around flat to marginally negative levels. Likewise, addresses in the 100–1,000 ETH bracket continue to trend below last year’s peaks, indicating a broad lack of renewed buying conviction among mid-sized to mid-tier holders. Taken together, the on-chain picture points to distribution pressures rather than broad-based accumulation, reinforcing the risk of a continued slide if the $1,990 zone gives way.

Despite the overall cautious stance from holders, there are some glimmers of potential longer-term support. Market observers note that on-chain activity around Ether staking has been rising, while the amount of Ethereum available on exchanges has fallen to ten-year lows. This combination signals that some holders are choosing to stake rather than liquidate, a dynamic that could eventually bolster Ethereum’s supply-side stability and reduce immediate selling pressure if demand improves. Still, these factors have not yet outweighed the current headwinds reflected in price action and investor sentiment.

For readers tracking the narrative, the balance of signals suggests that the immediate trajectory will hinge on whether ETH can defend the $1,990 threshold. A break lower would align with the fractal-driven downside scenario and the bear-flag target discussed by analysts, potentially amplifying the downside risks in the near term.

What to watch next

Investors should monitor a few key developments in the days ahead. First, whether ETH can sustain a move back above $1,990 or whether sellers regain control and push the price toward the $1,200 zone. Second, on-chain data—especially the behavior of mega-whales and the flow of Ether into staking pools—will be crucial for gauging whether demand may crystallize later in the year. Finally, macro momentum, including Fed expectations and risk appetite in relation to geopolitical developments, will continue to shape ETH’s risk premium and potential recovery path.

The market’s path remains uncertain, but the combination of a fragile macro backdrop, cooling on-chain demand, and fragile price patterns suggests a cautious stance for ETH in the near term as traders weigh the potential for further downside against the lure of long-term staking and shrinking exchange supply.

The Ethereum Foundation has staked over $46 million worth of ether in its largest single-day allocation, while continuing to rotate parts of its treasury through sales.

On-chain data from Arkham Intelligence shows the foundation transferred 22,517 ETH (ETH) to the Ethereum Beacon Deposit Contract at around 1:38 a.m. ET on Monday. 

The contract is used to lock ETH into the network’s proof-of-stake system, where it helps validate transactions and secure the chain. The move marks the foundation’s biggest recorded staking transaction so far.

The latest deposit builds on a broader shift in treasury management that began last month, when the nonprofit first staked 2,016 ETH following a 2025 policy update outlining plans to actively deploy treasury assets to generate returns while supporting the network’s long-term development.

According to the foundation, this approach allows it to both strengthen Ethereum’s security and fund core operations, including protocol research and development, ecosystem growth initiatives, and community grants.

The increase in staking activity comes shortly after the foundation also executed a separate treasury transaction, selling 5,000 ETH in an over-the-counter deal worth just over $10.2 million to BitMine Immersion Technologies.

It marked the second instance of the foundation directly selling ETH to a corporate treasury firm, following a 10,000 ETH sale to SharpLink Gaming in July last year. The foundation has maintained that periodically selling assets across market cycles allows it to sustain development efforts without relying solely on external funding.

At the time of writing, ETH price was trading above $2,057, up more than 2.5% over the past 24 hours, with gains extending across both weekly and monthly timeframes.

The final week of March is shaping up to be a volatile one, with the FTX Recovery Trust set to distribute $2.2 billion to creditors on Tuesday and the key U.S. monthly nonfarm payrolls statistic due Friday, when many equity markets worldwide will be closed for Good Friday.

The war in the Middle East, now in its fifth week, is also critical. The conflict has disrupted major energy infrastructure and transport in the region, in turn leading to higher inflation expectations and a meaningful shift in monetary policy expectations, Luke Deans, a senior research associate at Bitwise, told CoinDesk.

“Bitcoin, a highly reflexive and liquidity-sensitive asset, typically responds earlier to shifts in risk appetite and has repriced lower since October 2025,” Deans said. “This suggests that digital assets began reflecting tighter financial conditions ahead of many traditional risk assets.”

Global macro forces, he added, remain the primary drivers of risk sentiment. While liquidity will certainly play a role, the market backdrop remains fragile given the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

What to Watch

(All times ET)

• Crypto
• Macro
  • March 30, 9:30 p.m.: China NBS Manufacturing PMI for March (Prev. 49.0); Non-Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 49.5)
  • March 31, 5:00 a.m.: Eurozone Inflation Rate YoY Flash for March (Prev. 1.9%); Core (Prev. 2.4%)
  • March 31, 9:00 a.m.: U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index YoY for January (Prev. 1.4%)
  • March 31, 9:45 a.m.: U.S. Chicago PMI for March (Prev. 57.7)
  • March 31, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence for March (Prev. 91.2)
  • March 31, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. JOLTS job openings for February (Prev. 6.946M)
  • March 31, 07:50 p.m.: Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for Q1 (Prev. 15)
  • April 1, 8:15 a.m.: U.S. ADP Employment Change for March (Prev. 63K)
  • April 1, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for March (Prev. 52.4)
  • April 2, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for week ending March 28 (Prev. 210K)
  • April 3, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for March est. 48K (Prev. -92K)
  • April 3, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Unemployment Rate for March est. 4.5% (Prev. 4.4%)
  • April 3, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM Services PMI for March (Prev. 56.1)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 30: Nano Labs (NA), pre-market

Token Events

• Governance Votes & Calls
  • Stake DAO CRV and BAL are voting on their bi-weekly gauge to allocate CRV and BAL inflation across various liquidity pools. Voting ends March 31.
  • SuperRare DAO is voting to consolidate its treasury management under the RareDAO Foundation by migrating remaining balances and officially concluding its legacy Network Engagement and Grants programs. Voting ends March 31.
  • Aventus DAO is voting to simplify AVT emissions to a flat daily rate, increase the node staking requirement, and replace ongoing fees with an upfront appchain token allocation. Voting ends March 31.
  • Unlock DAO is voting to transfer 3 ETH to its Base multisig to swap for USDC to cover current and future operational expenses. Voting ends April 2.
  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting to elect nine multi-sig signers, maintain a 5-of-9 signature threshold, and set their quarterly compensation at $1,000 paid in GHST. Voting ends April 2.
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting across two proposals to transition its Code of Conduct and Procedures into living documents managed by OpCo, and to upgrade to ArbOS 60 Elara. Voting ends April 2.
  • SSV Network DAO is voting across two proposals to integrate ENS names for core protocol contracts to enhance security against phishing, and to establish a soft fee floor for public operators to ensure economic sustainability. Voting ends April 3.
  • Lisk DAO is voting to test the Degov.ai governance platform ahead of Tally’s shutdown by executing a 0 LSK transfer. Voting ends April 7.
• Unlocks
  • April 1: SUI$0.8814 to unlock 1.10% of its circulating supply worth $38.29 million.
  • April 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 2.18% of its circulating supply worth $16.05 million.
  • April 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 2.66% of its circulating supply worth $379.31 million.
• Token Launches
  • March 30: BASED token generation event to occur.
  • March 31: edgeX (EDGE) token generation event to occur.
  • March 31: WorldLand (WL) to be listed on KuCoin, Gate, and others.
  • April 1: Orexn (OXN) enters a phased exchange listing period after the token generation event.

Conferences

Decentralized lending protocol Aave has officially launched on Ethereum layer 2 X Layer.

According to the official announcement, the launch will allow OKX Wallet users and DeFi participants to directly supply assets, borrow against collateral, and earn yield on the network without having to use a separate wallet or bridge assets across chains.

X Layer was developed by OKX and launched in 2024, but network growth has been relatively slow so far, with the chain holding only about $25 million in total value locked as of press time.

Onboarding Aave could significantly strengthen liquidity and expand the network’s DeFi capabilities.

“With a multi-year track record across more than a dozen blockchain networks and a 60% market share of DeFi lending, Aave is the largest and most trusted onchain lending network, with over $46 billion in supply & borrow. Its arrival on X Layer brings that same battle-tested infrastructure to OKX’s L2 ecosystem, permissionless, non-custodial, and accessible directly from OKX Wallet,” OKX said.

As part of the expansion, users can supply assets including USDT0, USDG, GHO, xBTC, xETH, xSOL, xBETH, and xOKSOL to earn yield that compounds automatically while retaining custody of their tokens.

Further, users will be able to borrow assets such as USDT0, USDG, GHO, xBTC, xETH, and xSOL against their collateral without any credit check or intermediary.

To access the service, OKX Wallet users just need to open the wallet, navigate to Aave through the DApps section, and connect to the X Layer network.

The latest expansion follows the launch of Orbit, a social trading platform that the crypto exchange introduced earlier this month.

As previously covered, Orbit is designed to combine social media-style interaction with trading tools, allowing users to share strategies, discuss market developments, and follow experienced traders in real time.

Around the same time, OKX disclosed a strategic investment from Intercontinental Exchange, with the deal set to give ICE a seat on the company’s board.

Key Takeaways

• Proposed legislation would prohibit stablecoins from generating yields, limiting them to payment functions exclusively
• The change would redirect yield opportunities toward traditional banking and money market instruments
• Popular DeFi platforms including Uniswap, Aave, and Compound may encounter stricter regulations on value distribution
• Trading volumes, liquidity depth, and token demand across DeFi could decline significantly
• Regulated stablecoin issuers like Circle stand to gain from tighter integration with payment systems

The most recent iteration of the CLARITY Act has sparked significant discussion around its stablecoin provisions. Industry experts warn that decentralized finance tokens may bear the brunt of the legislation’s consequences.

Under the proposed framework, stablecoins would be prohibited from providing yields or any similar incentive structures, including balance-based rewards. This restriction would fundamentally transform stablecoins into payment instruments rather than blockchain-based savings vehicles.

Markus Thielen, who established 10x Research, indicated that the legislation would effectively channel yield opportunities back into conventional financial systems. Traditional banks, money market vehicles, and compliant financial products would capture these benefits, while cryptocurrency-native services would lose competitive advantage in offering returns.

Initial speculation suggested that DeFi platforms might actually attract more users if centralized crypto services were prevented from distributing yields. The theory presumed capital would migrate toward onchain alternatives.

However, Thielen challenged this assumption. He explained that the CLARITY regulatory structure would probably apply to user-facing platforms and token economics, especially when fee structures or governance mechanisms begin resembling equity instruments.

Potential Impact on DeFi Platforms

This regulatory approach places numerous DeFi initiatives under scrutiny. Decentralized trading venues and lending services may encounter fresh restrictions governing their operations and value distribution mechanisms.

Platforms such as Uniswap, Sushi, and dYdX face potential consequences, alongside lending services like Aave and Compound. Enhanced regulatory oversight might trigger diminished trading activity, thinner liquidity pools, and decreased token valuations, the 10x Research analysis suggests.

The fundamental question centers on whether these platforms can maintain fee distribution or incentive programs for token holders without triggering new stablecoin-focused regulations.

Thielen observed that distinguishing between governance tokens and regulated financial instruments grows increasingly complex within this regulatory framework.

Circle Positioned for Potential Gains

The legislation wouldn’t create obstacles for every cryptocurrency entity. Circle, which issues the USDC stablecoin, might emerge as a beneficiary under the proposed rules.

Thielen characterized the regulation as fundamentally favorable for infrastructure providers like Circle. Should stablecoins become embedded within payment networks, issuers maintaining robust regulatory compliance would secure advantageous positions.

The CLARITY Act continues advancing through the legislative pipeline. Congress has not yet enacted a final version.

While stablecoin provisions dominate policy discussions in Washington, industry analysts emphasize that the ripple effects across DeFi ecosystems deserve equal attention.

A new app from the US government has sparked concerns among users and researchers over potential location-tracking features, security vulnerabilities and data collection.

The White House launched the app on Friday as a way for users to get a “direct line to the White House,” including receiving breaking news alerts on major government announcements, watching livestreams and keeping up to date on “policy breakthroughs.”

However, users on X have raised concerns about the permissions required to use the app, including access to the device’s location, shared storage and network activity, though these claims have not been independently verified.

While many apps often request location permissions and can log user data, an app launched by the federal government requesting this information can invite additional concerns. 

However, both listings on the Google Play Store and Apple’s App Store currently do not display these warnings.

A White House app privacy policy said it automatically stores information about the originating Internet Protocol (IP) address and other basic information, while it can retain names and email addresses of subscribers, though these are not required to use the app.

Cointelegraph has contacted the White House for comment.

Security engineer says GPS tracking is part of the app

On the app’s Google Play Store page, it states that personal data, including phone numbers and email addresses, may be collected through download and use. Apple’s App Store, meanwhile, directs users to the White House’s privacy policy.

A software developer using the X handle Thereallo, along with Adam, a security engineer and infrastructure architect, say they have identified code suggesting the app could access a device’s GPS for tracking.

While the feature is common across a number of apps, Adam said it is unusual for location-tracking services to be in software that does not appear to need them.

“There is no map, no local news, no geofencing, no events near you, no weather. Nothing in the app that requires location,” he added.

Concerns of GPS tracking every 4.5 minutes

Thereallo made a similar claim that the app includes code that could enable tracking a device every 4.5 minutes in the foreground and 9.5 minutes in the background, though this has not been independently verified.

They found that it still requires permission but warned that it is only “one call away from activating,” and that the tracking “infrastructure is there, ready to go.”

Related: Trump advisory council draws Coinbase co-founder, tech leaders

At the same time, Thereallo said the app is collecting other data such as notification interactions, in-app message clicks and phone number.

Security could be broken, researcher says

Adam said the app’s security may also be weak enough for a technically skilled person to intercept its data or alter its functionality

“Anyone on the same Wi-Fi network, say, at a coffee shop, an airport, or a congressional hearing room, can intercept API traffic with a proxy. Anyone with a jailbroken device can hook and modify the app’s behavior at runtime,” he said.

“No servers were probed. No network traffic was intercepted. No DRM was bypassed. No tools were used that require jailbreaking. Everything described here is observable by anyone who downloads the app from the App Store and has a terminal.”

Magazine: Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF undercuts BlackRock, SBF pardon unlikely: Hodler’s Digest, Mar. 22 – 28