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Crypto World

Aave founder challenges report on Kraken investment talks

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Aave Labs subsidiaries receive FCA approvals for UK expansion

Aave founder Stani Kulechov has challenged reports that Kraken parent company Payward is negotiating to acquire a 15% stake in the decentralized lending protocol at a $385 million valuation, arguing that the reported terms misrepresent the situation.

Summary

  • Kraken is in talks to acquire a 15% stake in Aave through a deal that values the DeFi protocol at $385 million.
  • The proposed investment would include 35,000 ETH, 250,000 AAVE tokens, and a 15% equity stake in Aave Group, CoinDesk reported.
  • The discussions extend Payward’s expansion beyond crypto trading after recent moves into regulated derivatives and tokenized financial products.

In a post on X, Kulechov rejected the reported valuation cited by CoinDesk, which had attributed the information to unnamed sources. 

“First off, there is NO WAY we’d sell AAVE at a 70% discount lol,” he wrote, referring to the reported valuation, which he said represented only about 30% of AAVE’s fully diluted token valuation.

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CoinDesk reported that Kraken is considering an investment of 35,000 ETH in return for 250,000 AAVE tokens and a 15% equity stake in Aave Group. A document reviewed by the publication valued the proposed transaction at about $385 million.

Two people familiar with the discussions also told the publication that Kraken intends to syndicate part of the investment, placing the deal’s estimated value at around $71 million. A Kraken spokesperson declined to comment, while Aave did not respond to the publication’s request for comment before the story was published.

Kulechov did not deny that discussions involving Aave-related assets have taken place. Instead, he said Aave Labs holds an allocation of AAVE tokens that several market participants have explored purchasing through long term strategic partnerships. He added that CoinDesk’s characterization of the discussions was inaccurate.

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The founder also highlighted Aave’s financial performance, stating that the Ethereum-based lending protocol generates about $134 million in annualized revenue, with all of that revenue directed to the Aave DAO rather than Aave Labs.

Investment would expand Payward’s DeFi strategy

A third source familiar with Payward’s plans said that the proposed Aave investment would become the first in a series of transactions under Payward Asset Management, a business the company intends to use for investments across decentralized finance and other digital asset opportunities. The source added that Payward has sufficient capital and external partners to support similar deals.

Aave operates the largest decentralized lending protocol, where users lend and borrow digital assets through smart contracts without intermediaries. Lenders supply assets to liquidity pools to earn yield, while borrowers provide crypto collateral to secure loans.

Kraken and Aave have previously worked together. Kraken’s Layer 2 network Ink launched a white-label version of Aave called Tydro last year to provide lending infrastructure for the blockchain.

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The comments follow governance changes approved earlier this year. Kulechov’s “Aave Will Win” proposal received about 75% community support in April and redirected all protocol and Aave-branded product revenue to the DAO and AAVE token holders. In return, the DAO approved multi-year funding for Aave Labs.

Aave released version 4 of the protocol in March with an updated hub and spoke architecture. Earlier this month, the protocol also introduced a revised risk framework after the April KelpDAO exploit, where attackers used unbacked rsETH as collateral on Aave to borrow other assets. Although Aave’s smart contracts were not compromised, the incident resulted in significant withdrawals from the protocol.

Kulechov said Aave Labs no longer receives protocol or product revenue because it now serves as a development provider for the DAO. He disclosed that the team is designing Aavenomics 3.0, which will include an automated, non-discretionary buyback mechanism for the AAVE token, although additional details have not yet been released.

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Polymarket to refund users after $2.94M frontend phishing attack

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Polymarket trader accused of making $1.2M using Google insider data

Polymarket has confirmed that attackers compromised a third party vendor and used the access to inject malicious code into the platform’s frontend, leading to a phishing attack that drained an estimated $2.94 million from users.

Summary

  • Polymarket said a third party vendor compromise enabled a phishing attack that stole about $2.94 million from at least 11 user wallets.
  • The platform removed the malicious dependency, contained the incident and said all affected users will receive full refunds.
  • DefiLlama recorded the attack as the 89th crypto security breach of the second quarter, the highest quarterly total by incident count on its records.

Polymarket disclosed on X that it has removed the affected dependency, contained the incident, and will fully reimburse affected users. 

Blockchain analyst Specter estimated that the attack drained funds from at least 11 wallets after the malicious script appeared on the platform’s frontend.

Frontend compromise targets user wallets

Specter identified the attack as a phishing campaign rather than a protocol exploit. The analyst said the injected script enabled attackers to steal funds from connected wallets after users interacted with the compromised interface.

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DefiLlama recorded the incident as the 89th reported crypto security breach of the second quarter, making it the highest quarterly total by incident count in the platform’s records.

DefiLlama also reported $74.9 million in losses across 29 crypto exploits during June. That total exceeded May’s $60.5 million but remained well below April’s $644 million.

The platform listed the $36 million Humanity Protocol exploit as June’s largest attack. Other major incidents included a $4.7 million exploit involving the Secret Network bridge, two separate $2.1 million exploits affecting Aztec, and a $1.7 million bridge exploit on Taiko.

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DefiLlama reported that private key compromises accounted for 43% of exploit losses over the past 30 days. Fake proof exploits represented 10% of losses, while reverse MEV honeypots accounted for 8%.

Previous exploit traced to compromised private key

Polymarket disclosed a separate security incident about a month earlier after attackers exploited a six year old private key used for internal top up operations and stole about $600,000.

Security researchers, including ZachXBT, PeckShield, and Bubblemaps, initially flagged suspicious activity involving Polymarket’s UMA CTF Adapter contract on Polygon. Bubblemaps reported that attackers withdrew 5,000 POL every 30 seconds before estimating total losses at roughly $600,000.

Polymarket protocol contributor Shantikiran Chanal later attributed that incident to a compromised wallet used for internal operations rather than a vulnerability in the platform’s contracts or core infrastructure. 

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Josh Stevens, the company’s vice president of engineering, stated at the time that user funds and smart contracts remained secure and that all permissions linked to the compromised key had been revoked.

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Grant Cardone will keep buying bitcoin using real estate cash flows

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Bitcoin-real estate strategy could outperform REITs, says Grant Cardone. Adds more BTC to treasury.

Grant Cardone, CEO of Cardone Capital, used this week’s crypto slide to restate the case for his bitcoin-and-property model, saying the structure is designed to keep buying as prices fall.

“We work to improve the cash flow of the real estate and buy more bitcoin as it falls,” Cardone said in a post on X.

Cardone Capital, which has about $5.3 billion under management, uses the income generated from its real estate assets to buy bitcoin at regular intervals regardless of its price, smoothing out the expenditure in a process known as dollar-cost averaging. The largest cryptocurrency has lost 4.7% this week.

Cardone said the model was “inspired by treasury companies but with real assets and real cash flow,” and called his firm the largest real estate-bitcoin hybrid in the world, with no institutional investors shaping its strategy.

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His comment draws a distinction with the corporate bitcoin treasury model popularized by Strategy (MSTR), in which companies raise money by issuing stock or debt to buy bitcoin.

That approach has come under pressure this week, with Strategy’s stock trading below the value of the bitcoin it holds and analysts at CryptoQuant arguing the firm has overextended itself.

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BTC bulls fight to defend $60K after liquidation wipeout

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Spot Bitcoin ETF flows, source: SoSoValue

Bitcoin briefly fell below $59,000 late Thursday as selling pressure spread across the crypto market. 

Summary

  • Bitcoin’s break below $59K came as ETF outflows and long liquidations deepened pressure across markets.
  • Short-term holders are sending BTC to exchanges at a loss, raising capitulation and seller-exhaustion questions.
  • Technical indicators remain fragile, with RSI near oversold and $59K-$60K still the key support zone.

The move pushed BTC to an intraday low near $58,189 before a small rebound toward the $60,000 area.

According to crypto.news market data, Bitcoin remains under pressure after losing the $60,000 level during the latest selloff. The move kept traders focused on whether the $59,000-$60,000 area can turn back into support.

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The selloff also came as major tokens weakened. Ether fell near $1,500, while altcoins saw larger losses as leveraged positions were forced out. The drop followed several days of weak ETF demand and poor risk appetite across crypto markets.

As previously reported, Bitcoin had already rebounded toward $62,000 after a $459m ETF exodus, but sellers kept control. That rebound has now faded, leaving BTC back near the same support zone that traders have watched through June.

Bitcoin ETF outflows and liquidations add pressure

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $696m on Thursday, according to SoSoValue ETF data. The outflow extended the run to six straight trading days of net redemptions. U.S. spot Ether ETFs also lost $81.9m, marking their sixth straight day of outflows.

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Spot Bitcoin ETF flows, source: SoSoValue
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows, source: SoSoValue

The Bitcoin ETF selling was broad. BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest fund, accounted for about $63m of the outflows. Fidelity’s FBTC lost $3.5m, while Grayscale’s funds saw about $23m leave. No fund posted strong inflows during the session.

Leveraged traders also faced a sharp wipeout. According to CoinGlass data, more than $1b in crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours. Long traders took most of the damage, with about $842m in long positions closed.

Bitcoin led the liquidation wave with about $489m in forced closures. Ether followed with about $295m. The largest single liquidation was a $38.05m BTC-USD position on Hyperliquid, showing how quickly large leveraged bets were removed.

Bitcoin traders watch $59K-$60K range

Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades said Bitcoin had taken much of the liquidity around the $60,000 region. In a post on X, he said the biggest liquidity cluster now sits near $67,000, around the June high.

He added that the $59,000-$60,000 area remains key. If Bitcoin forms a range and buyers defend that area, the market could stabilize. If BTC slowly returns to the same support again, he warned that it may prepare for another higher-timeframe leg lower.

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Another market watcher, BATMAN, said Bitcoin is close to printing a weekly death cross. He argued that the last death cross did not mark the exact bottom. Instead, it led to a long consolidation phase before the final cycle low.

EGRAG CRYPTO also pointed to a bearish cross between the 13-week and 33-week moving averages. He said a two-week close above $74,000 would weaken the bearish setup. Until then, he said the cycle-bottom window remains open, with downside zones around $47,000, $43,000 and $37,000.

Technical indicators remain fragile

Bitcoin’s short-term indicators show weak momentum, even after the small rebound. The MACD shows a mild bullish crossover, with the histogram slightly positive near 16.31. The MACD line sits around -2,269.45, just above the signal line near -2,285.76.

That setup means downside momentum has slowed. Still, both lines remain far below the zero line. This keeps the signal weak and shows that the recovery has not yet shifted the broader trend.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart, source: crypto.news
Bitcoin (BTC) price chart, source: crypto.news

The RSI stands near 32.98, below its moving average around 37.77. This keeps Bitcoin close to oversold territory. Buyers have not regained control because RSI remains well below the neutral 50 mark.

Volume is near 12K, with heavier selling volume during the June decline. The latest candle shows a small rebound, but the market still lacks strong confirmation. Bitcoin needs to reclaim $62,800-$65,000 to show that buyers are taking back short-term control.

Short-term holders show stress

CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha said Bitcoin’s short-term holder market cap fell to $237.7b on June 26. That was its lowest level since Oct. 2, 2024, when the figure was near $239.7b. The drop shows that many recent buyers are now holding unrealized losses.

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He also noted that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 12 on June 25, placing the market in Extreme Fear as Bitcoin traded near $59,700. The reading is not the lowest of the year, but it comes at a lower BTC price, showing deeper stress among recent buyers.

Source: CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha
Source: CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha

Taha also said short-term holders sent about 50,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss over 24 hours. Binance received about 9,500 BTC from that group, its highest reading since early June. Exchange transfers do not prove that all coins were sold, but they show that more BTC has moved to venues where it can be traded.

As crypto.news reported, Bitcoin triggered a large liquidation wave after falling below $60,000. Previously, crypto.news explored how the $60,000 support zone came under pressure after a bearish chart breakdown.

Macro news may help limit panic, but it has not yet changed the chart. An interim U.S.-Iran peace accord gives UN nuclear inspectors access to Iran, although details remain disputed. 

For Bitcoin, the near-term test is simpler: hold $59,000-$60,000, or risk another move lower.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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$10.63 Billion Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expire as Markets Search for a Bottom

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Bitcoin Expiring Options. Source: Deribit

Roughly $10.63 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options expire on Deribit Friday. The settlement drops into a market that keeps sliding lower while traders hunt for a floor.

Bitcoin trades near $60,200 after a 2% daily drop, while ether sits around $1,580 after a steeper 4.43% fall. Both rest far below their options max pain levels.

Puts Command a Premium as Traders Brace for Downside

Friday’s settlement ranks as the quarter’s largest options event on Deribit. The bulk of expiring value sits in Bitcoin, with notional contracts worth about $9.06 billion against ether’s $1.57 billion. Max pain marks the price where the most options expire worthless. Bitcoin’s level sits at $70,000, while ether’s sits at $2,000.

Bitcoin Expiring Options. Source: Deribit
Bitcoin Expiring Options. Source: Deribit

Open interest leans toward calls in raw terms, yet positioning tells a cautious story. Bitcoin’s put-to-call ratio sits at 0.63, with 92,154 calls against 57,652 puts. Ether’s ratio runs lower at 0.50. The heavier call count reflects bullish bets now stranded well above the current price. Bitcoin’s recent options expiry events have followed a similar defensive pattern.

Ethereum Expiring Options
Ethereum Expiring Options. Source: Deribit

According to Greeks.live, Bitcoin’s 25-delta skew has turned sharply negative on short-dated contracts. The skew reads -10.7% at one day, -11.3% at seven days, and -9.6% at one month. By contrast, longer tenors stay calmer near -6% and -5%.

“Puts continue to command a meaningful premium over calls across all major tenors,” analysts at Greeks.live stated.

That premium reflects steady demand for near-term downside protection. Traders are paying up to hedge a further slide rather than chase upside. Bitcoin’s recent price action has kept that hedging active through the week.

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The Bottom Question Hangs Over Settlement

Greeks.live places negative gamma between $60,000 and $64,000, the band where Bitcoin trades now. Positive gamma spreads across $67,000 to $82,000, with clusters near $67,000, $71,000, $75,000, and $80,000. The June, July, and September contracts drive most of that dealer exposure. The firm notes these readings exclude IBIT data.

That structure can keep price action choppy near current levels through expiry. Meanwhile, ether’s steeper price drop has pushed it well below its $2,000 max pain mark.

The expiry also lands during a broad crypto downturn. Both assets have slid to multi-month lows this week, deepening the case for caution into settlement.

Some forecasters expect deeper losses first. Jiang Zhuoer, founder of mining pool BTC.TOP, sees a late-2026 bottom forecast near $42,000 to $44,000. He points to Strategy’s mNAV slipping to 0.72, close to its 2022 low. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has floated a $40,000 Bitcoin bottom within six months. Even so, his year-end target still runs above $200,000.

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Jiang’s broader four-year cycle model points to a bottom around late October. He has mined through several halvings and plans to buy back near the low.

Deribit, however, cautions against reading too much into the max pain pull.

“While max pain remains a widely followed metric, recent quarterly expiries have shown limited evidence of a consistent pinning effect ahead of settlement,” Deribit analysts indicated.

Both assets remain stuck below max pain heading into settlement. The next sessions may show whether sellers extend the search for a bottom or buyers finally step in.

The post $10.63 Billion Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expire as Markets Search for a Bottom appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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South Korea Has the World’s Hottest Stock Market: Why Does MSCI Still Call It ‘Emerging’?

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The KOSPI has skyrocketed since 2025

South Korea’s KOSPI surged 112% in 2026, overtook the UK’s FTSE 100, and ranked as the world’s best-performing major index in 2025. Yet MSCI’s latest annual review left the country in its Emerging Markets category for another year.

MSCI CEO Henry Fernandez says South Korea’s economy is not the problem. Its currency market is.

One Currency Rule Blocks the Upgrade

Fernandez told CNBC that South Korea is “one of the most developed markets on the planet” in economic and technological terms. But MSCI judges countries on how their equity markets function for international investors. On that measure, the Korean won creates a specific barrier.

Fund managers buying South Korean equities must first purchase the won to settle trades. In every other market that MSCI classifies as developed, investors can buy or sell that currency at any hour, from any major financial center. The Korean won trades only during business hours in Seoul.

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That constraint matters at scale. Fernandez said a third of all globally managed index assets sit in index funds. Managers running those funds cannot rebalance Korean positions outside Seoul trading hours.

July Reform Is Not Enough to Convince MSCI

South Korea plans to launch 24-hour dollar-won spot trading on July 6. Fernandez acknowledged the reform as real progress. But he raised a direct question: will a Seoul-based night shift generate enough liquidity, with a tight enough bid-ask spread, to satisfy institutional demand? He said he has doubts.

MSCI also cited rigid investor identification requirements, restrictions on in-kind transfers, and limits on exchange data use as additional reasons for keeping the country in emerging markets. The index provider stated that investors reported these issues remain unresolved.

South Korea already holds developed-market status under FTSE Russell’s classification system. The MSCI designation carries greater weight for passive fund flows globally, which is why Seoul has long pursued the upgrade. Earlier this year, the KOSPI overtook London’s FTSE 100 to become the eighth most valuable national equity index in the world. Market performance does not factor into MSCI’s methodology, however.

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The KOSPI has skyrocketed since 2025
The KOSPI has skyrocketed since 2025 on the back of SK Hynix and Samsung, predominantly. Image Source: Trading View

The July trading launch will be the key test. If it produces deep, liquid markets around the clock, MSCI’s next annual review could look different.

The post South Korea Has the World’s Hottest Stock Market: Why Does MSCI Still Call It ‘Emerging’? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Apple (AAPL) Stock Plunges 6% Following Unprecedented Hardware Price Increases

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AAPL Stock Card

Key Takeaways

  • AAPL shares declined approximately 6% following announcement of widespread hardware price increases — the first major pricing adjustment in years
  • Hardware price hikes span from $100 to $300 across most models, with Mac Studio jumping $1,300
  • Global memory chip scarcity, fueled by AI infrastructure demand, has driven DRAM costs up roughly 90% in Q1 2026 and an additional 60% in Q2
  • Memory chipmaker Micron reported unprecedented 84.9% gross margins on the same day, highlighting the disparity between suppliers and buyers
  • iPhone pricing remains unchanged for now, though analysts project the memory supply crisis could add approximately $200 in component expenses per unit

Apple announced sweeping price increases across its hardware portfolio on Thursday, triggering a sharp investor selloff. AAPL shares plummeted roughly 6%, declining $18.78 to close near $274.30, wiping out almost $200 billion in market capitalization during a single trading session.


AAPL Stock Card
Apple Inc., AAPL

The pricing adjustments affect Macs, iPads, HomePods, Apple TV devices, and the Vision Pro mixed-reality headset. The M5 MacBook Pro base model now commands $1,999, representing a $300 premium. Mac Studio experienced the steepest adjustment with a $1,300 price escalation. Most mainstream products saw increases between $100 and $300.

Apple CEO Tim Cook offered a stark assessment when speaking with The Wall Street Journal. “This is a hundred-year flood,” Cook stated. “I’ve never seen anything like it in any area in over 40 years.”

The underlying driver is a worldwide memory semiconductor shortage. Explosive AI data center construction has absorbed enormous quantities of DRAM and NAND flash memory, creating severe supply constraints for consumer electronics manufacturers.

DRAM contract pricing surged approximately 90% during Q1 2026, followed by another 60% escalation in Q2, per TrendForce data. NAND flash memory has tracked a comparable trajectory. Memory and storage component expenses now stand at roughly quadruple their levels from three quarters prior.

Cook acknowledged Apple’s efforts to shield consumers from the impact. “We’ve been trying to shield our customers from the increases, but the situation has become unsustainable,” he explained.

Micron’s Record Performance Highlights Industry Dynamics

While Apple shares were declining, Micron experienced a dramatic rally. The memory chip manufacturer reported all-time high revenue and an unprecedented 84.9% gross margin, exceeding analyst forecasts. Micron’s market capitalization expanded by more than $100 billion on Thursday.

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This stark divergence illustrates the current market reality. The memory supply crisis has transferred pricing leverage decisively to chip manufacturers. For companies purchasing these components — including Apple — near-term relief appears unlikely. Micron projects its gross margin will expand further to approximately 86% in the coming quarter.

Apple’s Q2 2026 financial results, for the period ending March 28, demonstrated revenue growth of 17% year-over-year reaching $111.2 billion, with EPS advancing 22%. Gross margin reached 49.3%. However, these figures largely preceded the most severe phase of the memory price escalation.

iPhone Pricing Remains Under Scrutiny

Thursday’s pricing revisions notably excluded the iPhone, Apple Watch, and AirPods product lines. This reprieve may prove temporary. Next-generation iPhone models are anticipated this fall, and research firm Counterpoint projects the memory supply crisis could increase component costs by approximately $200 per device. Higher-capacity storage configurations face the most significant impact.

The iPhone generates approximately half of Apple’s consolidated revenue, making any pricing strategy for this product line substantially more consequential than Mac or iPad adjustments.

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Apple currently trades at roughly 33 times earnings at the $275 price level. This valuation premium reflects investor confidence in the company’s margin structure and services revenue expansion — the services division achieved record revenue of approximately $31 billion in Q2. Margin compression diminishes the company’s margin for error.

The stock has retreated into its previous consolidation range, with the $275–$280 area emerging as a critical technical support zone for investors to monitor.

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MiCA Deadline Forces Binance to Wind Down EU Crypto Services

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EU Central Bank President Reportedly Blocked Binance in Greece, Will France Approve?

Binance will shut off its services for European Union customers from next week, after withdrawing its bid for a licence under the bloc’s crypto rules.

The exchange emailed users in Poland, Italy, Spain, and France this week.

What Binance Told EU Customers

According to Euro News, Binance emailed its French clients. The message said its French unit would stop onboarding new users immediately and would end all crypto asset services in the country from July 1, 2026.

The company confirmed that comparable notices had been sent to affected users in other EU markets.

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The notices stated that Binance will not hold a Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) licence by June 30, 2026. The exchange assured that customer funds remain safe.  

Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens

The MiCA Deadline Behind the Decision

MiCA entered into force in June 2023. Its full licensing regime began in December 2024, opening a window for firms to secure a national licence.

That window closes July 1, 2026, the hard enforcement date across the European Economic Area. After it, operating without a MiCA licence puts a firm in breach of EU law.

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Binance applied to the Hellenic Capital Market Commission in Greece but received no formal decision. It withdrew the bid this week. However, Binance said it would instead pursue a licence through another EU member state.

“Europe is an important region for Binance, and our ambition to operate under a clear, fair, and harmonized MiCA framework remains unchanged. We continue to support MiCA’s goal of creating a consistent regulatory framework for crypto assets across the EU, and we are confident we will secure authorization in another EU Member State in the coming months,” the exchange stated.

Two people familiar with the process told Reuters that Binance also approached regulators in Ireland and Latvia but faced resistance. The coming time will reveal which member state Binance targets next.

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Japanese giant SBI Holdings to buy Bitbank for $289 million

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Nomura pushes back on crypto retreat concerns as it tightens risk controls

Japanese financial services giant SBI Holdings said it agreed to buy cryptocurrency exchange Bitbank for around $289 million.

The Tokyo-based bank first floated the idea at the start of last month, framing it as part of a broader strategy to expand its crypto business ahead of potential regulatory developments in Japan. It bought crypto exchange Bitpoint in 2022.

Japan is in the process of bringing cryptocurrencies under the umbrella of financial products as authorized by the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, which applies to stocks and other securities. This could take effect from early next fiscal year.

Bitbank is among Japan’s top 10 largest crypto exchanges by trading activity, according to CoinGecko, processing 24-hour volume of just under $50 million. Competitors such as Toobit, CoinW, Kraken and Bitmart all process in excess of $1 billion.

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SBI said the acquisition, which is subject to regulatory approval, is set to close in October in a statement on Thursday.

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MSTR’s Bitcoin Per Share Gets ‘Annihilated’ in Extreme Bear Case: Analyst

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A three-year stress test of Strategy (MSTR) suggests the company could survive an extreme market downturn, although common shareholders would face significant losses, according to Bitcoin-focused author and market commentator Adam Livingston.

The model assumed a severe scenario in which Bitcoin falls 55% from $59,100 to $26,600 within six months, mNAV drops below 0.50x, capital markets remain closed, and the company is forced to sell BTC to meet its obligations.

Brutal MSTR Stress Test

The starting assumptions included MSTR stock at $87.64, total Bitcoin holdings of 847,363 BTC, cash reserves of $1.4 billion, CEBE of 138,161 sats per share, and a claim ratio of 41.5%. As BTC prices decline in the model, fixed-dollar senior claims rise sharply in Bitcoin terms. Senior claims increase from 351,567 BTC to 819,073 BTC, while the claim ratio climbs to 96.7%.

The analysis shows that common equity Bitcoin would fall from 495,796 BTC to 28,290 BTC. CEBE drops from 138,161 sats per share to 7,884 sats per share, while the modeled MSTR share price falls from $87.64 to $1.01. Livingston described this phase of the scenario as the “horror movie.”

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The stress test assumes no new Bitcoin purchases, no common share issuance, and monthly obligations of $167.7 million. Cash would be exhausted by the ninth month, after which the company would begin selling Bitcoin to service its obligations. Over the three-year period, Strategy would sell 115,727 BTC.

Despite those losses, the model would end with the company holding 731,636 BTC. The final modeled state places Bitcoin at $48,498, MSTR at $51.86, mNAV at 1.40x, common equity Bitcoin at 274,093 BTC, CEBE at 76,380 sats per share, and the claim ratio at 62.5%.

According to Livingston, the analysis does not point to an “instant bankruptcy” or a “death spiral.” Instead, he said the main risk is CEBE compression as senior claims temporarily consume most of the company’s Bitcoin stack in BTC-equivalent terms.

FUD Around Strategy

Livingston’s analysis comes as the debate surrounding Strategy’s BTC accumulation strategy has intensified in recent months. Some expect the company may need to sell part of its Bitcoin holdings in the coming years. For instance, crypto analyst Kaleo recently warned that the company’s best option now would be to sell 50,000 or more BTC in the next two years.

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Meanwhile, others, such as CryptoQuant, have called for a pause in new purchases to strengthen cash reserves.

The post MSTR’s Bitcoin Per Share Gets ‘Annihilated’ in Extreme Bear Case: Analyst appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Polymarket Third-Party Vendor Compromise Drains $2.9M from Users

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Polymarket Third-Party Vendor Compromise Drains $2.9M from Users

A third-party vendor compromise discovered Thursday allowed attackers to inject a malicious script into Polymarket’s frontend, affecting multiple users.

Blockchain analyst Specter said the malicious script appeared to facilitate a phishing attack that drained an estimated $2.94 million from at least 11 Polymarket user wallets.

Polymarket said on X that the compromise has been contained and that the affected dependency has been removed. It added that users would be fully refunded.

Cointelegraph has approached Polymarket for comment but did not receive a response before publication.

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The attack was the 89th reported crypto security breach of the second quarter, according to DefiLlama data, extending the most-hacked quarter on record by incident count.

Source: Specter

Crypto exploit losses reach $74.9M across 29 June incidents

Crypto exploit losses climbed to $74.9 million across 29 reported incidents in June, surpassing May’s $60.5 million total but remaining far below April’s $644 million, according to DefiLlama data.

Total value hacked by monthly sum, 1-year chart. Source: DefiLlama.

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The largest June incidents included the $36 million Humanity Protocol exploit, the $4.7 million Secret Network bridge exploit, two separate Aztec exploits worth $2.1 million each and a $1.7 million bridge exploit on Taiko.

Related: About 60% of World Cup bettors on Polymarket are first-time crypto users

Over the past 30 days, private key compromises accounted for 43% of reported exploit losses, making them the leading attack vector, according to DefiLlama. Fake proof exploits accounted for 10%, followed by reverse MEV honeypots at 8%, which present deceptive trading opportunities to lure and manipulate automated trading bots.

About a month before Polymarket’s latest attack, the prediction market disclosed a separate $600,000 exploit that was traced to a six-year-old private key used for internal top-up operations. Josh Stevens, Polymarket’s vice president of engineering, said the platform’s contracts and user funds remained safe and that all permissions tied to the key had since been revoked.

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Total value hacked by technique over the past 30 days. Source: DefiLlama

Polymarket currently holds over $450 million in total value locked, up 301% from $112 million a year ago, according to DefiLlama.

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