James Check, founder and lead analyst at Checkonchain, said Bitcoin may have already established its cycle bottom after undergoing two capitulation events, arguing that shifts in holder behavior indicate the market has absorbed much of its selling pressure.

Bitcoin (BTC) reached a record of just over $126,000 in October 2025 and traded around $77,400 at the time of writing, nearly 39% below its peak. Some traders expect BTC to establish another low in October 2026 based on its historical four-year cycle. In July, analyst Benjamin Cowen said that cycle-duration data and the US midterm-election calendar pointed toward a fourth-quarter bottoming window.

In an interview on Cointelegraph’s Proof of Thesis show, Check described Bitcoin’s February decline toward $60,000 as a “price-pain capitulation,” when investors who bought near the top sold at substantial losses. He identified a second “time-pain capitulation” around $58,000 in June and July, following months of sideways price action that caused holders to question whether Bitcoin would recover. 

“What’s the difference between $58,000 and $59,000 or $60,000? Nothing,” Check told Cointelegraph. “It’s the six months that separated them. That’s the actual difference.” His assessment challenges expectations of an October low, suggesting the capitulation signals associated with a bear-market bottom appeared months earlier.

Check said approximately $300 billion in Bitcoin cost basis was concentrated between $58,000 and $70,000, while about 4 million BTC moved from an unrealized loss into profit during the subsequent recovery. He added that long-term holders now control roughly 80% of Bitcoin wealth and are more likely to wait for substantially higher prices than sell after a short-term rebound. 

Bitcoin four-year cycle misleads traders

Check said anchoring to the four-year cycle is a mistake because there is no mechanical reason for it to repeat.

“Ask, ‘Well, now what do I do?’ long before your compass breaks,” Check told Cointelegraph. “It’s like a broken clock. It’s right twice a day. Just assume it’s broken and find something better.”

Check said previous cycle dates do not explain why investors capitulate. He said traders should instead examine cost basis, unrealized and realized losses, holder profitability and whether experienced investors are accumulating or distributing their coins. 

He said that calendar dates should only provide context after evidence of market exhaustion or capitulation emerges. “Look for the evidence, not the calendar,” Check said.

Related: Bitcoin treasuries buy just 5.9K BTC in three months as paper losses linger

Grayscale researcher also sees $58,000 bottom

Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl reached a similar conclusion in a recent interview on Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets. “I’m willing to stick my neck out and make a guess that prices bottomed back at $58,000 at the end of June,” Pandl told Cointelegraph. 

Pandl said the downturn produced less despair than previous Bitcoin bear markets but followed a bull market that also generated less euphoria, potentially resulting in a more contained decline. 

He also pointed to Bitcoin’s ability to withstand adverse developments without continuing to fall. “When price in an asset class, whether it’s crypto or anything else, stops going down on bad news, that’s usually a sign that it’s oversold,” Pandl said.

Onchain evidence remains mixed. HODL Waves data showed that Bitcoin supply held for one to seven days rose only from 1.97% on July 1 to 2.35% on July 5, which analyst Willy Woo interpreted as an unusually muted response from dip-buyers.

However, CryptoQuant data showed that short-term holders had remained partially profitable for 30 consecutive days, the longest such stretch of 2026 and a pattern the analytics firm said has characterized previous Bitcoin market recoveries.

Magazine: Bitcoin treasury firms can outperform BTC… but is the risk worth taking?

Germany is seeing faster crypto adoption than the UK, with CoinShares researcher Luke Nolan pointing to stronger institutional involvement and younger investors treating digital assets as a more accessible place to deploy inherited wealth. Speaking to Cointelegraph, Nolan said German demand is being driven by a mix of family offices, wealth managers and individual advisors—while the UK remains constrained by regulatory lag.

Behind the headline difference is a clear divide in regulatory momentum: Germany and the wider EU have been working through Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) licensing, while the UK’s crypto market is still “nascent” after the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) only recently resumed retail access to certain crypto exchange-traded products.

Key takeaways

• CoinShares’ Luke Nolan says Germany’s crypto adoption is advancing quickly, led by advisors and younger investors seeking exposure to inherited wealth.
• Nolan argues the UK is behind largely because FCA retail crypto-product restrictions were lifted less than a year ago, leaving the market still early-stage.
• Germany has 89 licensed crypto-asset service providers, representing 25.5% of firms listed on ESMA’s MiCA register.
• Major German banks are moving toward crypto custody for institutions as regulatory approval milestones approach, including Deutsche Bank’s expected license window.
• The UK FCA is progressing its new authorization framework, with licensing applications opening Sept. 30 and interim transitional arrangements tied to a 2027 timetable.

Why Germany is pulling ahead with younger and advisor-led demand

Nolan described Germany’s adoption trajectory as “very good progress,” emphasizing the role of wealth intermediaries. According to his comments to Cointelegraph, family offices, wealth managers and individual advisors are helping bring crypto into mainstream investment conversations—particularly among younger investors.

A notable behavioral driver, Nolan added, is the growing interest in investing inherited wealth in digital assets. That dynamic matters because it links crypto demand to long-term financial planning rather than short-term speculation, increasing the likelihood of sustained client education and repeat allocations through established advisory channels.

UK market remains “nascent” after FCA timing gaps

In contrast, Nolan said the UK is “still very much behind.” His explanation centered on timing: the FCA lifted its ban on crypto exchange-traded products for retail participants less than a year ago, following a prior ban introduced in January 2021.

That regulatory gap helps explain why the UK digital asset market is described as early-stage. Even as UK regulators move to bring broader crypto activity under formal oversight, investor access and product availability take time to rebuild after restrictive periods—especially for retail-oriented exchange-traded formats.

MiCA licensing momentum: Germany’s weight in the EU register

Germany’s regulatory groundwork under MiCA is also reflected in licensing totals. ESMA’s updated MiCA register shows Germany has 89 licensed crypto-asset service providers, accounting for 25.5% of companies in the register. ESMA’s MiCA-related listings provide the basis for this share of the market within Europe.

Germany has also been positioned as an EU leader by authorization volume. Cointelegraph previously reported that Germany topped the bloc by MiCA authorization in June, reaching 57 authorized crypto companies—underscoring that the country’s pipeline did not merely grow late in the process.

For investors and service providers, licensing concentration can be a signal of both regulatory confidence and operational readiness: firms licensed earlier often have more time to build compliant products, custody workflows and customer onboarding processes.

Big banks in Germany edge closer to institutional crypto custody

The adoption story is not confined to independent advisors. It is also drawing attention from Germany’s largest financial institutions as they prepare for regulated crypto services.

Deutsche Bank revealed on Wednesday that it was awaiting regulatory approval to launch crypto custody solutions for institutional clients in Europe, with a license expected in October. Earlier this year, Cointelegraph reported that Landesbank Baden-Württemberg—described as Germany’s largest federal bank—began offering crypto custody solutions in partnership with Bitpanda for its institutional custody platform (launched in April 2024).

Together, these moves indicate a gradual institutionalization of custody: as banks approach licensing milestones, the market may see improved infrastructure for professional-grade storage, controls and reporting—features that matter to institutional allocators who need compliant operational pathways.

UK regulators advance authorization and enforcement

While Germany presses ahead through MiCA licensing, the UK FCA is working through its own framework for regulating crypto activities. On Wednesday, the FCA issued final guidance describing when crypto activities may require authorization under the UK’s incoming regulatory regime.

According to Cointelegraph’s coverage, licensing applications will open on Sept. 30, with a Feb. 28, 2027 deadline for firms seeking transitional arrangements ahead of the new regime taking effect on Oct. 25, 2027. The timetable suggests the UK is moving toward a structured authorization environment, but it also means firms and users may still be waiting for full operational clarity until the later stages of the schedule.

The FCA also continued enforcement actions. On Thursday, it announced that it had sent a cease-and-desist letter to three London locations suspected of facilitating illegal peer-to-peer crypto trading. Separately, UK Parliament approved regulations bringing digital assets within the FCA’s regulatory remit in February, and the regulator later finalized a package of rules and guidance in June.

For readers watching how Europe’s crypto markets diverge, the key uncertainty is timing: Germany’s progress is being reinforced by MiCA licensing and bank-level infrastructure moves, while the UK’s broader framework is still rolling out. The next thing to track is how quickly FCA authorizations and transitional arrangements translate into new, compliant product availability—especially for institutions and retail channels that have been rebuilding since the end of earlier restrictions.

Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SUNB) reported on September 9 that fiscal first-quarter revenue increased 11.2% to $3.115 billion, including $2.927 billion of rental revenue, up 12.5%. The quarter ended July 31, 2026.

Management raised fiscal 2027 rental-revenue growth guidance to 7% through 10%, while increasing planned net rental-equipment capital expenditures to $2.4 billion through $2.8 billion. Demand supports expansion, but investors need to assess how much cash remains after funding the fleet.

BULL CASE

North America Specialty rental revenue grew 25.3%, giving Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SUNB) a strong source of growth beyond general equipment rentals. Specialized services can deepen customer relationships and create opportunities to supply several needs on the same project.

The company estimated that the FIFA World Cup contributed 2.5 percentage points to quarterly rental-revenue growth. Serving complex events demonstrates the commercial value of a broad equipment network. The investment opportunity is to turn that capability into recurring work across industrial, energy and construction customers.

Adjusted EBITDA increased 8.7% to $1.315 billion. This company-defined non-GAAP measure adds taxes, net interest, depreciation, amortization, stock-based compensation and specified restructuring costs to net income. Its margin is adjusted EBITDA divided by revenue.

GAAP operating margin improved to 22.2% from 21.3%, helped by lower depreciation expense relative to revenue. The business is generating higher operating profit as management commits more capital to future rentals.

BEAR CASE

Cash conversion weakened. Operating cash flow declined to $840 million from $868 million, while company-defined non-GAAP free cash flow fell to $70 million from $468 million. Free cash flow deducts rental and non-rental equipment purchases, net of disposal proceeds, from operating cash flow.

That means net equipment spending absorbed approximately 92% of quarterly operating cash flow. Equipment purchases can precede rental income, but the gap places greater importance on deploying new assets quickly and keeping them rented.

The revised outlook increases that obligation. At the guidance midpoints, planned annual net rental-equipment spending rose by $350 million, while expected adjusted EBITDA increased by $70 million. Those revisions show why stronger earnings guidance does not automatically mean more near-term cash available to shareholders.

Adjusted EBITDA margin also declined to 42.2% from 43.2%. Management attributed the decline primarily to faster growth in ancillary revenue, partly offset by improved rental rates. The World Cup contribution also makes recurring demand after the event an important test.

Company-defined non-GAAP net debt, total debt less cash, was $8.524 billion. Net debt equaled 1.8 times trailing adjusted EBITDA, within management’s 1-to-2-times target range. That provides context for the debt burden, while continued spending makes cash discipline essential.

Hedge Fund Sentiment

The filings available so far reflect positions held before Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SUNB) reported its fiscal first-quarter 2027 results. Insider Monkey’s database showed 35 hedge funds holding Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SUNB) at the end of 2Q2026, up from 33 funds three months earlier.

CONCLUSION

Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SUNB) has stronger growth prospects, but the cash payoff remains the decisive test. Higher fleet investment strengthens the case when utilization and rental rates support attractive returns.

Investors should watch margin trends and cash generation after equipment spending across the full fiscal year. Sustained improvement there would validate the heavier investment and support debt reduction.

While we acknowledge the potential of SUNB as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you’re looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

READ NEXT: Vertiv (VRT) Signed a Deal Worth Up to $2.6B for UtilityInnovation. Can Faster Power Deployment Justify the Contingent Consideration? and Asana (ASAN) Reached a 10% Non-GAAP Operating Margin. Can Agentic Products Restore Expansion?

This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.

Key takeaways

• The failed CLARITY Act vote and the Federal Reserve’s rate increase have weighed on sentiment.
• XRP futures open interest fell from 2.25 billion to 2.12 billion tokens, signaling softer speculative demand.
• The 50-day and 100-day EMAs provide support between $1.28 and $1.26.

Ripple’s XRP remained under bearish pressure on Friday, trading just above $1.30 as buyers attempted to defend a cluster of short-term moving-average supports.

The token has struggled since rising to $1.50 on Monday. Sentiment weakened after the U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act and the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.

Higher interest rates can reduce liquidity and weaken demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. However, the Fed’s decision was widely anticipated, limiting the immediate market reaction.

Ripple highlights XRP’s existing legal clarity

Despite the legislative setback, Ripple maintains that XRP already has a meaningful legal advantage following the company’s lengthy court battle with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Ripple said the litigation established that XRP is not inherently a security, giving the company and token firmer legal footing even without a comprehensive U.S. digital-asset framework.

The company acknowledged that the CLARITY Act could have offered greater certainty across the broader crypto industry. Still, it argued that XRP remains on “settled ground” compared with many other digital assets.

Derivatives activity has weakened alongside XRP’s fading price recovery. Futures open interest fell to 2.12 billion XRP on Friday from 2.25 billion the day earlier. It has also retreated considerably from the 2.78 billion XRP recorded on August 15.

Falling open interest indicates traders are closing leveraged positions or becoming less willing to establish new ones. If the decline continues, XRP may struggle to attract the speculative demand needed for a sustained move back toward $1.50.

The token nevertheless displayed some resilience following the Fed’s expected rate increase. 

XYO co-founder Markus Levin noted that the central bank’s improved growth outlook suggests policymakers do not believe the U.S. economy is approaching a severe downturn.

However, the effects of higher borrowing costs could emerge gradually as financial conditions tighten.

XRP bulls defend the $1.26-$1.28 support zone

XRP remains above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, which provide support around $1.28 and $1.26, respectively.

The 200-day EMA at approximately $1.36 represents the first major resistance. A decisive break above that level could improve momentum and reopen the path toward $1.50.

Technical indicators currently point to consolidation with a bearish tilt. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has fallen further below zero, while its expanding negative histogram suggests bullish momentum is weakening.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index stands at 49, slightly below its neutral midpoint.

A daily close below the $1.26-$1.28 support cluster would strengthen the bearish outlook and potentially trigger a deeper correction. 

Conversely, holding this zone and reclaiming $1.36 would provide an early sign that buyers are regaining control.