Final bottom predictions have been revised lower to $35,000-$45,000 as global liquidity conditions deteriorate.

Bitcoin fell briefly below $65,000 on Monday following US President Donald Trump’s proposal to increase global tariffs to 15%.

Alongside tariff-driven uncertainty, data suggest that the asset is currently trading in a phase with maximum psychological damage to traders.

BTC Enters “Psychological Torture” Phase

The asset is now in Stage 4 of the cycle, following a sequence driven by liquidity dynamics, leverage positioning, and recurring patterns in investor psychology, according to the analysis by Doctor Profit. The analyst stated that Stage 1 unfolded during Bitcoin’s rally between $115,000 and $125,000, a period which witnessed euphoric sentiment, extreme buying appetite, aggressive leverage, and widespread belief that downside risk had disappeared.

This phase typically ends with sideways consolidation at high levels or brief upside spikes and masks underlying market fragility. Stage 2 began when Bitcoin broke below the psychologically critical $100,000 level, triggering stress among short-term investors and leveraged traders. The move was described as fast and deliberate, designed to limit reaction time. The sharp October 10 crash was cited as a defining example that produced the largest liquidation event in crypto history within hours.

Stage 3 followed as the fastest and most severe phase, which confirmed the bear market through an extreme drawdown of 38% from the all-time high. Doctor Profit described this stage as the most brutal, which saw panic and depression, as investors were unable to hedge or de-risk in time.

During this period, BTC lost 50% of its market cap as a result of the rapid “mechanical repricing.” The analyst now places the market in Stage 4, a long sideways period defined by low volatility but high psychological stress. This phase is described as exhausting rather than violent, and price is expected to move within a defined range that allows market makers to generate liquidity on both sides while gradually wearing down participants.

Doctor Profit characterized Stage 4 as a weak-hands selling zone, where frustration, regret, and anxiety dominate, and where most short-term holder capitulation occurs as retail investors exit at a loss after missing earlier selling opportunities. He further explained that a breakdown into Stage 5, the full capitulation phase, is more likely to occur in a few months rather than imminently, while short-term bounces within the $57,000-$60,000 range remain possible.

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Capitulation Before Recovery

Stage 5 is projected as the most emotional phase, and is often associated with systemic stress or black swan events. Revised downside targets are now between $35,000 and $45,000 amid broader macro and liquidity concerns.

The final Stage 6 would involve stabilization and structural reversal, as selling pressure fades and large players accumulate while retail investors anticipate even lower prices. Doctor Profit concluded that while the fastest downside may be over, the most damaging psychological phase has begun, which is consistent with patterns observed across previous Bitcoin cycles.

Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss says crypto sentiment is so bad he’s “optimistic,” even though the exchange he runs with his brother Cameron is forced into a sharp reset and Winklevoss Capital appears to have been steadily selling Bitcoin for the last 12 months.

Despite his public bullish sentiment, onchain trackers including Arkham reveal that the Winklevoss Capital wallet has been reducing its Bitcoin (BTC) exposure over the past year, from about 23,000 BTC in February 2025 to fewer than 11,000 BTC in February 2026.

Gemini’s latest filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Tuesday showed that it expected net revenue of between $165 million and $175 million for 2025, up from $141 million in 2024, with about 600,000 monthly transacting users, a 17% year‑on‑year increase.

At the same time, projected operating expenses have soared to between $520 million and $530 million, versus $308 million a year earlier.

Related: Crypto investors’ interest moves ‘pretty wide’ beyond majors as dip drags: Exec

On Feb. 5, Gemini announced that it would cut up to a quarter of its staff, exiting the United Kingdom, European Union and Australia to concentrate on the US and Singapore markets.

Less than two weeks later, the company parted ways with its chief operating officer, chief financial officer and chief legal officer, saying that Cameron Winkelvoss would be taking on more responsibilities.

Shrinking market share and strategic pivot

According to a Sunday report by Bloomberg, Gemini’s spot market share shrank to around 0.1% of global spot crypto trading in January, down from 0.6% in June 2025, and its market value has fallen from almost $4 billion to under $700 million since last year’s public listing.

Citing people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported that Gemini had let go of additional US staff and was now focused on a pivot toward a new Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulated prediction markets platform, and custody and credit card services.

The company’s 8‑K filing confirmed the senior leadership shakeup and noted that Cameron Winklevoss would absorb many of the outgoing chief operating officer’s duties, while interim executives step into the chief financial officer and general counsel roles.

Cointelegraph reached out to Gemini to confirm the reported additional layoffs, strategic pivot and BTC sales, but had not received a response by publication.

Bleak market sentiment piles on pressure

Gemini’s restructuring comes against a backdrop of unusually bleak sentiment across the crypto market. 

Miners such as Bitdeer have liquidated their BTC treasuries, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled for the past five weeks and popular sentiment gauges like the Crypto Fear & Greed Index have sunk to extreme fear levels, coinciding with Google searches for “Bitcoin going to zero” being at their highest since 2022.

Related: Gemini exit a ‘blow for policymakers’ with UK crypto hub ambitions

A handful of high‑profile investors remain long Bitcoin, however, including Japan’s Metaplanet, which has repeatedly doubled down on its BTC accumulation strategy despite market conditions, and US Bitcoin treasury pioneer Strategy, the largest publicly listed owner of BTC at 717,131, which hinted at its 100th Bitcoin buy on Sunday. 

High-frequency trader and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes also posted his portfolio on Monday. He remains heavily weighted toward BTC alongside gold, oil and other assets, while macro analysts such as Lyn Alden remain long but expect a grinding market rather than a sharp rally in the near term.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ would be Saylor’s liquidation — Santiment founder