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Analyst Warns Bitcoin April Rally Could Precede May-June Crash

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Analyst Aaron Dishner warns April’s BTC rally is a deceptive move within a larger bear market. 
  • Historical bottom-year patterns show April relief rallies precede sharper May and June corrections.
  • On-Balance Volume and TBO divergence signals suggest Bitcoin’s April recovery lacks real conviction. 
  • Dishner targets $49,000 as Bitcoin’s key support if the $60,000 price floor breaks down in Q2.

Bitcoin bull trap fears are mounting as analyst Aaron Dishner warns that April’s price recovery is not a sign of bear market reversal. 

Drawing on historical bottom-year patterns and technical indicators, Dishner argues that a deceptive relief rally is forming ahead of a sharper May and June correction. 

He cautions retail investors against mistaking short-term green candles for a sustained trend shift, noting that the broader bearish structure for Bitcoin remains firmly in place.

April’s Rally Could Be Setting Up Retail Investors for a Fall

Bitcoin has shown sharp price swings this week, drawing fresh attention from traders across the market. Analyst Aaron Dishner urges caution against reading too deeply into recent gains. 

He argues the bear market structure remains intact despite the short-term price uptick. Dishner’s analysis draws on the Better Crypto Calendar, tracking monthly returns for BTC, ETH, and the broader crypto market. 

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The data reveals a recurring pattern in bottom years, where relief rallies appear but stay contained within a larger bearish structure. He believes 2026 is following that same path.

He previously flagged a 4.3% price pump triggered by unverified geopolitical news, which reversed quickly. He sees that kind of move as a textbook example of low-liquidity manipulation. Similar fake-outs, he warns, are likely to repeat through April.

On X, Dishner wrote: “The data is pointing to a mini rally in April that could fool a lot of people before things get uglier in May and June.”

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Potential tests of the $70,000 to $80,000 range are part of what he describes as a relief rally phase. Those levels could pull in retail buyers expecting a full trend reversal. 

That enthusiasm, he notes, is exactly what makes a bull trap effective. The TradFi phrase “sell in May and walk away” lines up well with his broader outlook this year. 

Bottom years, he explains, often include an April bounce, followed by further pain in May and June. A secondary bounce around July is also possible, but only after a more significant drawdown has already occurred.

Technical Signals and Downside Targets Reinforce the Bearish Case

Dishner tracks On-Balance Volume alongside his TBO Indicator to assess the conviction behind any rally. Both metrics are currently weak, despite the recent price move higher. 

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He reads this as a clear sign that genuine buying pressure is missing from the market. Fresh Trending Breakout divergence warnings have appeared on higher timeframes as well. 

These signals, in his view, point toward lower price lows ahead in May and June. His primary downside target for Bitcoin sits at $49,000, should the $60,000 support level fail to hold.

Dishner advises traders to stay patient and avoid chasing short-term green candles in this environment. He recommends waiting for bearish confirmation before entering heavy positions. 

Bottom years do create long-term accumulation opportunities, but only for those who remain disciplined through the volatility and false signals along the way.

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Crypto World

Meta builds photorealistic AI Zuckerberg to engage employees in real time

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Meta builds photorealistic AI Zuckerberg to engage employees in real time

Meta Platforms is experimenting with AI to develop a new way for its chief executive, Mark Zuckerberg, to communicate with his staff without being physically present.

Summary

  • Meta Platforms is developing a photorealistic AI-powered 3D version of Mark Zuckerberg to enable real-time interaction with employees without physical presence.
  • The system is being trained on Zuckerberg’s voice, expressions, and communication style, with the goal of providing staff direct access to leadership for guidance and updates.
  • The initiative comes as Meta expands its social commerce tools, allowing creators to link product catalogues within Reels, turning content into shoppable storefronts across 22 countries.

A recent report by the Financial Times says the company is building a photorealistic, AI-powered 3D version of Zuckerberg, which would be capable of engaging with his employees in real time.

The system will be designed to simulate natural conversations, allowing staff members to interact with the digital representation of Zuckerberg, who can respond in a human-like manner.

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While still in early stages, the initiative signals Meta’s continued investment in virtual human systems that can speak, respond, and hold conversations across different environments.

The digital version is being trained using Zuckerberg’s voice, facial expressions, tone, and public speaking patterns. It is also learning from his recent statements on company strategy, so it can deliver responses aligned with his views. Reports indicate that Zuckerberg is actively involved in testing and refining the system.

Meta expects the tool to give employees real-time access to leadership for guidance, feedback, and updates. The company also sees it as a way to improve internal communication, especially given its global workforce, where direct interaction with executives is limited.

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However, it should be noted that creating such a system requires massive computing power to ensure lifelike visuals and low-latency conversations. Teams at Meta have been working to improve both rendering quality and voice realism. As part of this effort, the company has strengthened its capabilities through acquisitions such as PlayAI and WaveForms.

The project is separate from Meta’s internal CEO assistant agent, which helps Zuckerberg manage daily tasks and retrieve information. Unlike that system, the 3D model is focused on communication and interaction, and could eventually extend beyond internal use.

Once successful, the approach may open the door for creators and influencers to build their own AI-driven avatars to engage audiences. Meta has already taken initial steps in this direction through its AI Studio platform.

Meta pushes into social commerce to strengthen creator ecosystem

The development follows Meta Platforms’ expansion in social commerce by linking creators, artificial intelligence, and advertising more closely to purchasing activity across platforms like Instagram and Reels.

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A central part of the strategy involves increasing the role of creators in the shopping journey. Businesses in 22 countries, including India, will soon be able to share product catalogues directly with creators. These can then be tagged and linked within Reels, effectively turning content into shoppable storefronts.

The update would narrow the gap between entertainment and commerce, allowing users to move more seamlessly from discovery to purchase within the same interface.

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Crypto ETP Inflows Hit $1.1 Billion, Strongest Since January

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Crypto ETP Inflows Hit $1.1 Billion, Strongest Since January

Cryptocurrency investment products clocked significant inflows last week, marking their strongest weekly gains since January.

Global crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) logged $1.1 billion in inflows last week, with Bitcoin (BTC) leading the gains with $871 million in inflows, CoinShares reported on Monday.

The inflows marked the second-biggest weekly gains in 2026 so far, following only the $2.17 billion in weekly inflows recorded in mid-January.

Weekly crypto ETP flows (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinShares

CoinShares’ head of research, James Butterfill, attributed the spike in inflows to a rebound in investor risk appetite following tentative ceasefire developments in Iran, alongside support from softer-than-expected US inflation and spending data.

The inflows came amid volatility in spot markets, with BTC reclaiming $70,000 and briefly topping $73,000 last week, even as broader market sentiment remained negative, underscoring sustained institutional demand and resilience in regulated investment products.

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Ether ETP flows rebound, but year-to-date inflows are still negative

Ether (ETH) ETPs saw a strong rebound in sentiment with around $196.5 million in inflows, the first inflows after three consecutive weeks of outflows.

Despite the gains, Ether remains one of the only assets in a net outflow position year-to-date, at $130 million. In contrast, Bitcoin sits on the largest inflows this year so far at $1.9 billion and accounts for around 83% of the $2.3 billion in total crypto ETP inflows year-to-date.

Crypto ETP flows by asset (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinShares

Although Bitcoin ETPs posted significant inflows, short-Bitcoin investors were also active last week, with weekly inflows totaling $20 million, their largest weekly inflows since November 2024, Butterfill noted.

Among other gains, XRP (XRP) ETPs posted inflows of around $19 million. Solana (SOL) saw minor outflows of $2.5 million.

Related: BlackRock Bitcoin ETF sees $269M inflows, best day since early March

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Regionally, positive sentiment was almost entirely concentrated in the US, which saw inflows of $1 billion, accounting for 95% of net weekly inflows. The majority of Bitcoin ETP inflows were driven by US spot BTC exchange-traded funds, which posted $786.3 million in inflows last week, according to SoSoValue data.

Germany recorded inflows of $34.6 million, while Canada and Switzerland saw more modest inflows of $7.8 million and $6.9 million, respectively.

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