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Analysts Dismiss Fears That Iran Unrest Could Impact Bitcoin Mining Output

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR

  • Experts state that the conflict in Iran does not threaten the global Bitcoin mining network.
  • Analysts report that online claims about large hashrate losses in Iran are overstated.
  • Data shows the Bitcoin hashrate stayed stable and continued to operate normally.
  • Wolfie Zhao explains that any mining issues in Iran would not affect global network performance.
  • Ethan Vera confirms that Iran contributes less than one percent of global hashrate.

Industry analysts stated that current unrest in Iran does not threaten the wider Bitcoin network, and they stressed that global hashrate levels remain stable. They pointed out that early online claims overstated the scale of possible outages, and they said the Bitcoin market continues to absorb regional shifts without stress.

Iran’s Mining Capacity Faces Pressure But Experts Reject Major Network Impact

Analysts addressed new concerns as online discussions raised fears about large-scale power failures, and they argued that the network can withstand local disturbances. They said the situation differs greatly from earlier global shocks, and they insisted that Iran’s role remains small in global output.

Wolfie Zhao stated that the conflict does not threaten the network, and he dismissed claims of sharp disruption. He said “individual miners may face issues,” but argued that the broader system operates normally and continues to handle load shifts.

Market posts referenced the risk of large sell-offs and grid failures, and they warned that thousands of rigs could shut down. However, analysts countered these claims and said projections on social platforms lacked data support.

Bitcoin Mining Outlook and Reported Hashrate Changes

Observers tracked hashrate levels after the first attacks, and they found that the network output held its range over several days. They noted that the network rose above one zettahash before easing slightly early Tuesday.

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Ethan Vera said Iran controls less than one percent of global hashrate, and he stressed that the network would not slow down even if local operations paused. He said “there will be no material impact to block times” and argued that security would remain intact.

He added that the sector includes small private miners and older operations tied to former Chinese groups, and he said these firms do not anchor global output. Analysts also said Iran’s regulatory hurdles limit growth and keep its mining share relatively low.

Iran’s Crypto Activity and Rising Exchange Outflows

Reports showed that Iran uses crypto channels to move funds outside the dollar system, and analysts said these flows track political tensions. They added that the country’s crypto sector reached several billion dollars last year, based on recent research.

A blockchain report found that some activity links to state-connected groups, and it said domestic events often drive short bursts in trading behavior. It also recorded a sharp jump in outgoing exchange transfers within minutes of the latest attacks.

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A market platform run by Dastan displayed a higher probability estimate for a change in Iran’s leadership, and its users increased wagers over the weekend. This shift mirrored rising speculation across social feeds, which pushed new claims about possible mining losses.

Data from multiple trackers continued to show stable performance, and they indicated that the network functions without delay or stress. New readings early Tuesday placed the hashrate slightly below one zettahash, which aligned with trends observed throughout the week.

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Crypto World

Aave’s TVL Falls $8B After $293M Kelp DAO Hack

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Aave’s TVL Falls $8B After $293M Kelp DAO Hack

Total value locked on decentralized lending protocol Aave dropped by nearly $8 billion over the weekend after hackers behind the $293 million Kelp DAO exploit borrowed funds on Aave, leaving roughly $195 million in “bad debt” on the protocol and triggering withdrawals.

Data from DeFiLlama shows that Aave’s TVL fell from about $26.4 billion to $18.6 billion by Sunday, losing the top spot as the largest DeFi protocol. 

Aave v3’s lending pools for USDt (USDT) and USDC (USDC) are now at 100% utilization, meaning that more than $5.1 billion worth of stablecoins cannot be withdrawn until new liquidity arrives or borrows are repaid. 

$2,540 is available to be withdrawn from the $2.87 billion USDT pool on Aave v3 at the time of writing. Source: Aave

Aave’s TVL fall shows how rapidly risk from a single security incident can spread throughout the broader, interconnected DeFi lending market, potentially leading to a severe liquidity crisis.

The incident began on Saturday when hackers stole 116,500 Kelp DAO Restaked ETH (rsETH) tokens worth about $293 million from Kelp DAO’s LayerZero-powered bridge and used them as collateral on Aave v3 to borrow wrapped Ether (wETH).

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Crypto analytics platform Lookonchain said the move created about $195 million in “bad debt” on Aave, which contributed to the Aave (AAVE) token tanking nearly 20% from $112 on Saturday at 6:00 pm UTC to $89.5 about 25 hours later. 

Lookonchain noted that some of the largest crypto whales to withdraw funds from Aave were the MEXC crypto exchange and Abraxas Capital at $431 million and $392 million, respectively.

Source: Grvt

Several crypto networks and protocols tied to rsETH or the LayerZero bridge have paused use of the bridge until the problem is resolved, including DeFi platform Curve Finance, stablecoin issuer Ethena and BitGo’s Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC).

Aave has frozen several rsETH, wETH markets

Shortly after the Kelp DAO exploit, Aave said it froze the rsETH markets on both Aave v3 and v4 to prevent any suspicious borrowing and later stated that rsETH on Ethereum mainnet remains fully backed by underlying assets.

WETH reserves also remain frozen on Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, Mantle and Linea, Aave said.

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This incident marks the first significant stress test of Aave’s “Umbrella” security model, which was introduced in June 2025 to provide automated protection against protocol bad debt while enabling users to earn rewards.

Related: Aave DAO backs V4 mainnet plan in near-unanimous vote

Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada found that Aave avoided bad debt in its v3 market by using overcollateralization, automated liquidations and other strategies that shifted risk to borrowers.

In comments to Cointelegraph, Aave defended its liquidation-based model, framing it as a core safety mechanism that protects lenders while limiting downside for borrowers.

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It comes as Aave parted ways with its longest-standing DeFi risk service provider, Chaos Labs, on April 6, following disagreements over the direction of Aave v4 and budget constraints.

Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?