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Analysts warn of $60K retest

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Analysts warn of $60K retest

Bitcoin price prediction favors a retest of the $60,000 level after losing $65,000 support amid macro tensions and weakening sentiment.

Summary

  • BTC is down 27% in 30 days and has posted five straight monthly declines.
  • $65K support has broken, putting $60K in focus.
  • CME futures positioning shows large traders reducing short exposure.

Bitcoin was trading at $64,846 at press time, down 4.6% in the past 24 hours. The asset has slipped 5% over the last week and is down 27% in the past 30 days.

Bitcoin (BTC) has now declined for five straight months since setting its all-time high in October last year, according to CoinGlass data. If losses continue through month-end, this would mark the second-longest monthly losing streak in Bitcoin’s history.

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Market sentiment has deteriorated sharply. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell four points to 5, placing it deep in the “Extreme Fear” zone.

Macro pressure keeps $60,000 in focus

Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, told Bloomberg that the crypto market remains fragile, with traders closely watching the $60,000 support level. She pointed to rising tensions involving Iran and uncertainty around new U.S. tariffs as key pressure points.

Over the weekend, President Donald Trump raised a proposed global tariff rate from 10% to 15% via Truth Social. The move came after the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated previous emergency tariffs imposed under IEEPA.

Then, claiming balance-of-payments issues, Trump re-imposed tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The policy change unsettled broader markets.

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Traditional safe havens like gold and silver responded more favorably than risk-sensitive assets like cryptocurrency. Bitcoin still trades more like a high-beta risk asset than a defensive hedge in the current climate.

Meanwhile, Rachael Lucas, analyst at BTC Markets, said Bitcoin would need to reclaim $70,000 to restore bullish momentum. Analysts had identified $65,000 as a key psychological and technical support level.

That level has now been breached. A sustained move below it increases the probability of a retest of $60,000.

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On-chain data from Glassnode adds to the bearish sentiment. The seven-day EMA of Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit and Loss sits near -$480 million, after plunging to -$1.24 billion on Feb. 6.

While realized losses have eased from peak capitulation levels, the market remains sell-side dominant. Glassnode noted that investor capitulation is still unfolding as Bitcoin works through a broader bottoming process.

Futures positioning hints at possible base formation

There are early signs that institutional positioning may be shifting. A recent report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that large traders in CME Bitcoin futures reduced short exposure significantly.

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Net positioning moved from roughly +1,000 contracts a month ago to -1,600 contracts recently, suggesting some institutional players may have flipped from net short to net long. Last April saw a similar change in positioning, which was followed by a 70% increase in Bitcoin prices.

Analysts warn that positioning data by itself does not prove a bottom, though. The risk of a decline could reach $40,000 if important support fails. 

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Crypto World

Binance Claims 25% of Staff Work in Compliance Roles

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Binance Claims 25% of Staff Work in Compliance Roles

Binance doubled down on its compliance credentials in a blog post after a report published earlier this month accused it of sanction violations.

Crypto exchange Binance says it has “significantly reduced exposure” to sanctioned entities and high-risk jurisdictions, including exposure to Iran since January 2024.

In a blog post titled “Setting the record straight” on Monday, Binance said its sanctions-related exposure as a percentage of total exchange volume has fallen by about 97% in that time, and now sits at around 0.009%.

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Exchange volume to sanctions-related entities has declined. Source: Binance

The post comes after a Feb. 13 Fortune report citing anonymous sources alleging that Binance fired at least five investigators who had supposedly uncovered evidence of Iranian sanctions violations. 

Binance denied the allegations on Feb. 15, stating that the report was “categorically false.” “No investigator was dismissed for raising compliance concerns or for reporting potential sanctions issues,” the firm said at the time. 

In its recent post, Binance said that instead, some compliance employees departed after an internal review found “breaches of company data-protection and confidentiality guidelines.”

Related: Crypto exchange network is helping Russia skirt sanctions: Elliptic

Meanwhile, Binance added that between January 2024 and January 2026, it reduced direct exposure to the four top Iranian exchanges by more than 97%, from $4.19 million to $110,000. 

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“Recent reporting on Binance’s sanctions compliance relies on incomplete and mischaracterized accounts that do not reflect all of the facts and the full investigative record.” 

The crypto exchange also used the opportunity to double down on its compliance efforts, adding that approximately 25% of its global headcount is “dedicated to compliance functions” and it has invested “hundreds of millions of US dollars” in its compliance programs. 

Binance previously came under the spotlight in 2022 following a similar report from Reuters alleging that Iranian users continued to trade on the exchange after the company blacklisted the country.

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