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Arthur Hayes Holds 7,213 ETH as FOMC Jitters Drives Ethereum Price Drop

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Arthur Hayes Holds 7,213 ETH as FOMC Jitters Drives Ethereum Price Drop

Arthur Hayes added 3,298 ETH worth $6.39 million on July 28, roughly three hours before Ethereum’s spot price slid from $1,960 to $1,872, a drop that immediately raised the question of whether the BitMEX co-founder’s whale trading triggered the selloff. The answer, grounded in the on-chain data, is no.

But the timing crystallizes a more interesting question about where Hayes is positioning for the next leg of this ETH cycle.

According to Lookonchain, the July 28 purchase was Hayes’s largest single leg in a buying streak that began on July 15. He has now accumulated 7,213 ETH at a total cost of $13.87 million, averaging $1,923 per ETH.

At post-drop prices, the position sits roughly $368,000 underwater – a paper loss, not a crisis, but one that underscores how quickly the macro environment can move against even a well-telegraphed accumulation thesis.

Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio

How Hayes Built the Position – and Why OTC Routing Matters

Hayes assembled the 7,213 ETH stack through a series of over-the-counter trades routed through Galaxy Digital, FalconX, and Cumberland. Individual legs ranged from approximately 645 ETH to 1,330 ETH, with the July 28 purchase at 3,298 ETH representing the largest single tranche.

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OTC execution is the key structural detail: none of these trades hit the open order book in a way that would create visible sell pressure or liquidate stacked bids.

On-chain data flagged by Lookonchain confirmed the wallet-to-OTC-desk transfer pattern. The mechanics mean the correlation between Hayes’s buy and the subsequent ETH price drop is coincidental timing, not causation.

Source: Arkham

A $6.39 million OTC purchase, however attention-grabbing in dollar terms, is small relative to daily ETH spot and derivatives volume across centralized and decentralized venues.

This accumulation reverses a June exit that cost Hayes approximately $606,000 in realized losses. He had sold roughly 6,000 ETH below $1,700, citing macro headwinds, including energy prices and political risk.

He then re-entered starting July 15 as ETH recovered above $1,750, a pattern that fits his documented trading style, which prioritizes rebuilding conviction positions at dislocated prices rather than protecting short-term P&L.

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The Actual Catalyst: Fed Timing and Broader Crypto Market Pullback

The ETH price drop on July 28 was not an isolated event. It was part of a broader crypto market pullback across the asset class as traders de-risked ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting.

Rate decisions, or more precisely, the forward guidance language that accompanies them, have been the dominant macro variable for risk assets in 2026. Crypto markets have priced in sensitivity to that signal, and positioning ahead of the announcement typically compresses speculative longs.

Source: CME Watch

ETH is not uniquely exposed here, but it is exposed. The move from $1,960 to $1,872 represents a roughly 4.5% intraday drawdown that hit simultaneously with pullbacks in BTC and major altcoins.

Attributing that to a single 3,298 ETH OTC purchase, one that didn’t touch the open market, requires ignoring how macro-driven de-risking actually propagates through derivatives books and spot liquidations.

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$1,900 Is the Level That Decides the Near-Term Narrative

Hayes’s average entry of $1,923 is not far above ETH’s post-drop price. The $1,900 level is the immediate technical line of significance: a sustained hold above it would keep Hayes’s position near breakeven and preserve the bullish structure that drew him back in after the June exit.

A failure to reclaim $1,900 with any conviction opens the door to a retest of the $1,750–$1,800 range where his July re-accumulation began.

The institutional thesis underpinning Hayes’s position has not been altered by a single macro-driven pullback. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has made a parallel argument: institutions are moving past simply trading Ethereum toward building on it, with BlackRock’s tokenized fund and Robinhood’s ETH-based fee token cited as structural demand drivers.

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That thesis is a medium-term one, and it does not immunize any position against near-term rate-driven volatility.

Ethereum (ETH)
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On-chain data confirms that Hayes’s Maelstrom-linked wallet is still holding, with no exit signals flagged in the reporting window. That matters because his track record includes rapid reversals – he has publicly championed tokens including HYPE, Zcash, and Worldcoin before quietly closing those positions as sentiment shifted.

The ETH position is larger in both size and stated conviction than those prior trades, but the pattern is worth tracking. On-chain watchers will be monitoring for any OTC transfer flows in the opposite direction as the Fed decision lands.

For active ETH traders, the Hayes accumulation is a data point, not a trade signal. The more actionable read is the Fed meeting outcome and whether ETH can reclaim $1,900 in the sessions immediately following. A contrarian institutional position of this size at current levels suggests smart money sees value here; it does not guarantee the market agrees on any particular timeline.

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Hungarian Parliament Scraps Crypto Verifier Rule: What Does it Mean?

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Bill T/305 passed parliamentary vote 143-46, with 1 abstention, on July 28, 2026.

Prior to this vote, it was illegal to trade crypto in Hungary without clearance from government-approved verifiers.

These validators were tasked with checking asset sources, wallet ownership, and client information before certifying any prospective crypto transactions as compliant.

‘Crypto Asset Abuse’ Laws Lifted

Laws pertaining to the ‘abuse of crypto assets’ were introduced in 2025 under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government. Transactions between 5 and 15 million forints (roughly $15,000 – $150,000) were reportedly punishable by a two-year prison sentence, with up to five years for higher amounts.

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Hungarian Finance Minister András Kármán states that the rules disrupted the market and caused providers such as Revolut, eToro, and CoinCash to halt or limit their operations.

The EU Commission opened infringement proceedings against these laws in early 2026 on the basis that they conflicted with MiCA regulations.

Crypto oversight is still in place, as the new bill does not remove or restrict existing MiCA compliance guidelines.

Are Hungary’s New Laws Good for Crypto?

Opponents of the bill argue that repealing existing regulations creates opportunities for money laundering and for financing by terrorist groups or political parties.

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Supporters, on the other hand, point out that AML and KYC laws remain covered by MiCA.

Very few firms were licensed as validators since 2025. 74% of active Hungarian crypto users traded with Revolut, and the company ceased local operations; the number of citizens trading crypto fell by 80,000, a 38% drop, according to PwC.

The lifting of these restrictions is believed by many to encourage crypto operators to re-enter Hungary, signaling a crypto-friendly environment that remains compliant with EU laws.

The post Hungarian Parliament Scraps Crypto Verifier Rule: What Does it Mean? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act update

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Santiment flags Bitcoin euphoria after CLARITY win

Disclosure: This content is provided by a third party. Neither crypto.news nor the author of this article endorses any product mentioned on this page. Users should conduct their own research before taking any action related to the company.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) a major U.S. digital asset legislative proposal that divides regulatory power between the SEC and CFTC, while sparking intense debates over privacy, developer liability, and anti-money laundering (AML) enforcement has been effectively shelved in the U.S. Senate ahead of the August recess, until September delayed by a crowded legislative agenda, alongside opposition from a bloc of Democratic senators over ethics terms.

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Summary

  • The Senate delayed action on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act until September after disagreements over ethics rules and a packed legislative calendar.
  • The updated bill would split crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC while adding new ethics restrictions for federal officials and stablecoin enforcement powers.
  • Banking groups warned the proposal leaves anti money laundering gaps for DeFi platforms and transaction mixers, while several major financial firms backed the legislation.
  • Seven Senate Democrats said the revised ethics and stablecoin provisions do not go far enough, leaving the bill short of the votes needed before the August recess.

Senate Republicans released an updated 616-page text of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633), which merges Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees’ texts into a single framework. [A bill text and a section-by-section summary are also available].  The bill assigns spot market authority over “digital commodities” to the CFTC and investment contract assets to the SEC.  And seeks to protect software/blockchain developers and decentralized networks that do not hold customer assets from illicit liability. 

The new draft includes a White House-backed ethics title barring covered federal officials and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets during public service, law enforcement stablecoin seizure powers, and temporary bans on digital asset issuance by federal officials through January 20, 2029.  Enforcement actions under the updated ethics title are restricted exclusively to the Attorney General, excluding state attorneys general or private parties.  

Lawmakers remain divided over the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act), specifically concerning ethics enforcement authority, anti-money laundering scope for decentralized finance (DeFi), and federal powers over privacy tools.

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Disagreements exist over whether the U.S. Department of Justice or state attorneys general should enforce bans preventing federal officials from issuing or sponsoring digital assets. Critics argue the proposed bans leave passive crypto investments and prior revenue streams untouched.  Proposed text includes fines up to $250,000 per day for violators, which critics view as insufficient. 

Major banking groups warn the CLARITY Act leaves critical anti-money laundering gaps inviting illicit finance risks and threaten traditional financial safeguards. Critics argue it excludes decentralized entities from Bank Secrecy Act rules and lacks clear authority to target transaction mixers.  The bill does not apply traditional bank rules to many unhosted wallets and decentralized finance networks with Federal agencies lacking direct statutory power to restrict or track transaction mixers under the current text.  

Major financial institutions including BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, Goldman Sachs, and SoFi publicly urged passage of the bill.  On July 24, the Fraternal Order of Police wrote a letter supporting the Clarity Act, reversing an April letter opposing the bill over provisions of the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, which would protect certain developers and firms that do not control customer assets from prosecution for illicit activity conducted by others on the platforms they build.  Nevertheless, a group of seven Senate Democrats expressed that the updated ethics safeguards and stablecoin rules remain insufficient, stalling the 60-vote threshold needed to clear the floor before the summer break. A vote on the Clarity Act could be pushed to September 2026, though its final passage remains uncertain due to ongoing political debates and a crowded legislative calendar ahead of the midterm elections.

William Quigley, a cryptocurrency and blockchain investor and co-founder of WAX and Tether, said “There are three things I am focused on with respect to the Clarity Act:

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1. Stablecoin Activity Based Rewards & Temporarily Freezing Accounts:   The two main friction points in the Clarity Act have been Section 404 (stablecoin activity based rewards) and Section 304 (temporarily freezing accounts and indemnification for doing so). These are mostly resolved at the legislative level. But there will be a lot of drama over these provisions as the responsible federal regulators draft specific rules and guidance to industry participants.

2. What Counts as Activity Based Rewards: Congress is giving the Treasury, SEC and CFTC a year post Clarity Act enactment to jointly define what counts as an activity based reward. The banking and crypto industry will be deeply involved in helping shape the definitions in their favor.


3. Stable Coin Yield:   Coinbase seems confident it has a work around to the prohibition in stablecoin yield. But investors should be wary of financial products marketed as passive yield earning investments. Activity based rewards are not in any way the same as the passive yield a customer earns in a savings account.”

At the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), Commissioner Hester Peirce views payment stablecoins as essential tools for blockchain transactions, supporting a practical 2% net capital haircut for broker-dealers and warning that yield-generating on-chain activities remain bound by securities laws. 

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He states that payment stablecoins are necessary for transacting on blockchain rails and expanding tokenized asset business. He applauded SEC staff guidance allowing a reduced 2% haircut instead of punitive 100% requirements, aligning stablecoins with money market funds. Warning that moving traditional financial services like lending or yield vaults onto blockchain rails does not exempt them from federal securities regulations. 

The People’s Bank of China already made its central bank digital currency (the digital yuan or e-CNY) interest-bearing starting January 1, 2026, while simultaneously banning private yuan-pegged stablecoins.  Yifan He, CEO of Red Date Technology and architect of China’s Blockchain-based Service Network (BSN), in an interview published by Irish Tech News on May 15, 2026 stated that he regards stablecoins as practical payment tools if properly regulated. While not a proponent of decentralized yield-farming or crypto-earning protocols, he acknowledges that stablecoins serve a functional purpose for enterprise settlement, fast payments, and international transactions when managed inside compliant frameworks for digital currency integration. He maintains that mainstream blockchain evolution relies on regulated, institutional implementation rather than decentralized retail yield-chasing. 

About the Author:

Selva Ozelli Esq, CPA, is an international digital asset legal expert and author of Sustainably Investing in Digital Assets Globally.  Her writings are translated into 45 languages and republished in over 200 global publications.  She is recognized as an expert media/TV commentator on global digital asset regulation, tax, and technology matters.

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Disclosure: This content is provided by a third party. Neither crypto.news nor the author of this article endorses any product mentioned on this page. Users should conduct their own research before taking any action related to the company.

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Anthropic Destroyed Millions of Books to Train Claude: Was That Legal?

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Past Cases on Mass Book Scanning in Court

Anthropic bought millions of used books, sliced off the covers, and scanned every page to train Claude. A federal judge ruled that destroying books this way was legal.

Court files exposed the program in January under the internal name Project Panama. Brokers now sell the same book-buying service to other artificial intelligence (AI) firms.

The rule is older than AI. When you buy a book, it is yours. You can resell it, lend it, or bin it. Lawyers call that the first-sale doctrine.

Judge William Alsup applied it plainly. Anthropic “purchased its print copies fair and square,” he wrote in his June 2025 order. So the authors were not arguing about payment. They were arguing about the switch from paper to PDF.

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Alsup found that switch added no copy at all.

“Here, every purchased print copy was copied in order to save storage space and to enable searchability as a digital copy. The print original was destroyed. One replaced the other,” wrote Alsup in the Bartz v. Anthropic case.

Here is the strange part. Destroying the book is what kept it legal. Keep the paper and you hold two copies. Shred it and you hold one.

Mass book scanning has reached court before, and the precedents cut both ways.

Past Cases on Mass Book Scanning in Court
Past Cases on Mass Book Scanning in Court

Inside Project Panama, Anthropic’s Book Scanning Program

Anthropic tried the free route first. It had “many places from which” it could buy books, Alsup wrote. Instead, chief executive Dario Amodei took them, to skip the “legal/practice/business slog.”

Cofounder Ben Mann downloaded Books3 in early 2021, a library of 196,640 pirated titles. Five million more came from Library Genesis that June. Two million followed from the Pirate Library Mirror in 2022.

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Buying started later. Anthropic hired Tom Turvey in February 2024, who had run book deals at Google. His brief was to obtain “all the books in the world.” Contractors then cut the bindings, trimmed the pages, and scanned each copy.

The order names no supplier. However, the Washington Post reported two, the used-book sellers Better World Books and World of Books. It also described hydraulic cutters removing the spines.

Only the piracy cost money. A judge approved a $1.5 billion payout on July 20, worth roughly $3,000 per book. Anthropic must delete the pirated files within 30 days of judgment. It still faces a separate $75 million claim and music publishers suing Anthropic over lyrics.

Why Old Books Became the Hottest AI Commodity

Old print is clean, and that is the whole point. AI text now floods the web. Feed it back into a model and the model degrades. A 2024 Nature study called this model collapse.

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So books printed before ChatGPT cannot contain machine writing. Brokers spotted the gap. ISBNdb sells book sourcing to AI firms. “The world’s best AI training data is sitting on a shelf,” its site says.

Meanwhile, the cost barely registers. Anthropic raised $65 billion in May at a $965 billion valuation, on revenue running at $47 billion a year. The settlement equals about 3% of that.

For crypto readers the thread is provenance. Proving where data came from is now a legal cost rather than a bonus. That same problem drives decentralized AI market forecasts and the case for blockchain based data ownership.

Not everyone accepts the trade-off. Elon Musk, chief executive of SpaceX and Tesla, says his team will scan differently.

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Gentle scanning has existed for decades. It is simply slower and dearer. So the open question is whether public anger moves an industry the law currently rewards for shredding.

The post Anthropic Destroyed Millions of Books to Train Claude: Was That Legal? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Why maximum leverage is a fee, not a feature

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Why maximum leverage is a fee, not a feature

Exchanges advertise leverage the way carriers advertise data speeds, as a capability offered for your benefit. The arithmetic says something else. A venue earns on notional, so the slider that multiplies your position multiplies its revenue identically while collapsing your survival odds, and the deleveraging queue ranks you first for forced closure because the venue knows exactly which accounts are fragile.

Summary

  • Trading fees are charged on notional value, meaning the size of the position, not the collateral behind it, so a 50-times position generates 50 times the fee revenue from the same deposit.
  • The trader’s outcome moves in the opposite direction: at 10 times leverage, roughly a 10% adverse move eliminates the position; at 50 times, roughly 2% does, and 2% moves occur in crypto several times a day.
  • Funding payments in perpetual futures also apply to notional and not margin, so leverage multiplies the recurring holding cost identically.
  • Auto-deleveraging queues rank candidates for forced closure by unrealised profit and effective leverage, which means high leverage raises your position in the queue even when you are winning.
  • Every element of that structure is disclosed in exchange documentation; what is absent is the connection between them, because the party best positioned to explain it earns more when it is not explained.

Open any major derivatives venue and the leverage control is presented as a capability. A slider, a dropdown, a set of preset multipliers running from 2 times up to 100 or beyond, framed in the marketing as capital efficiency and in the tooltips as a tool for experienced traders. The framing is not false. Leverage is a legitimate instrument; professionals use it, and its existence is not evidence of bad faith.

But the framing omits an arithmetic relationship that determines almost everything about outcomes on these platforms, and the omission is not random: a venue earning fees on notional value collects more from a leveraged position than from an unleveraged one funded with identical collateral, while the leveraged position is substantially likelier to be liquidated. The interests are not aligned; the misalignment is mechanical, not conspiratorial, and it is visible to anyone who does the multiplication. This guide does the multiplication.

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The fee arithmetic

Start with how trading fees are actually assessed, because this is the fact the whole argument rests on and it is not hidden anywhere.

Fees on derivatives venues are charged as a percentage of notional value, which is the full size of the position, not the margin posted to open it. A trader depositing $1,000 and opening an unleveraged position pays fees on $1,000 of notional. The same trader using 50 times leverage opens a $50,000 position and pays fees on $50,000 of notional, from the same deposit.

Fee rates vary by venue and by whether an order adds or removes liquidity, but the structure is uniform: the multiplier applied to the position is applied identically to the fee. At a taker rate of a few basis points, a round trip on a $50,000 notional position costs a meaningful fraction of a $1,000 deposit before the market has moved at all.

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The same multiplication applies to funding. In perpetual futures, the periodic payment flowing between longs and shorts is calculated on notional, a detail one major wallet provider’s documentation flags explicitly as mattering for true holding costs. A leveraged position pays leveraged funding, so a persistently crowded side becomes expensive at a rate proportional to the multiplier chosen.

Nothing here is concealed. It is in every fee schedule. What is rarely stated in the same place is the consequence: for the venue, the leverage slider is a revenue multiplier applied to the same customer deposit, and its effect on revenue is linear and certain while its effect on the trader’s outcome is negative and probabilistic.

What leverage does to survival

Now the other side of the same multiplication, stated as plainly as the fee side.

Leverage compresses the distance between your entry price and the point at which your collateral no longer supports the position. At 10 times, roughly a 10% adverse move exhausts the margin. At 25 times, roughly 4%. At 50 times, roughly 2%. At 100 times, the margin for error falls below 1%, and one industry glossary states the position bluntly: a 1% market movement can result in a total loss of capital.

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Those figures are approximations before fees, funding, and maintenance-margin buffers, all of which move the liquidation point closer, not further. They also assume the reference price behaves smoothly, which in stressed conditions it does not.

Set that against how crypto actually trades. 2% intraday moves are routine, occurring on most assets multiple times in a typical week and repeatedly within single days during volatility. A 50-times position is therefore not a bet on direction; it is a bet that ordinary noise does not arrive before your thesis plays out, and ordinary noise arrives constantly. Being correct about direction and wrong about sequence produces the same result as being wrong about everything.

One further asymmetry deserves stating. Stop-loss orders do not reliably protect high-leverage positions, because in fast markets the gap between the trigger and the fill can exceed the entire remaining margin. The tool most often recommended alongside leverage is least effective at exactly the leverage levels where it is most needed.

The deleveraging queue ranks you

Here is the element almost nobody connects to the rest, and it is the clearest evidence that venues understand the relationship perfectly.

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When a liquidation cannot be cleared in the market, and a venue’s backstop fund or protocol vault is exhausted, the exchange reduces positions on the profitable side to keep its books balanced. That mechanism is auto-deleveraging, and this publication covers it in detail in a dedicated guide. The relevant point here is how the venue chooses whose positions to close.

Selection is formulaic and published. Venues rank candidates by a combination of unrealised profit and effective leverage, closing the most profitable and most leveraged positions first, and many display each trader’s rank as a live indicator on the interface.

Read that ranking as what it is: the venue’s own statement about which accounts are fragile. An exchange that sorts by leverage when deciding whose winning positions to terminate has encoded, in its risk engine, the judgment that high leverage marks a position as expendable. The marketing presents the slider as a feature. The risk engine treats the same setting as a liability marker.

The practical consequence is that leverage costs you twice on the same position: it shortens the distance to liquidation when you are losing, and it raises your rank for forced closure when you are winning.

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Why the slider exists at all

The uncharitable reading is that venues offer extreme leverage to harvest fees from accounts that will not survive. The charitable reading is that leverage is a legitimate tool and competitive pressure forces every venue to match the maximum its rivals advertise. Both are partly true, and the second explains the escalation better than the first.

Maximum leverage functions as a marketing number in this industry the way megapixels once did in cameras. It appears in comparison tables, it differentiates venues that are otherwise similar, and no exchange wants to be the one advertising a lower ceiling. That dynamic ratchets upward regardless of whether anyone believes high leverage serves customers, which is why the figures have climbed steadily while the arithmetic behind them has not changed.

It is worth noting who does not permit this. Most regulatory regimes restrict or prohibit extreme leverage for retail participants in traditional markets, and that restriction was not arrived at casually. Retail leverage limits exist because supervisors examined outcome data and concluded the products were unsuitable at those levels. Crypto venues operating outside those perimeters are not evading a rule so much as operating where the rule was never written.

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What experienced traders actually do

The gap between advertised maximums and professional practice is the most useful thing a new participant can know.

Professionals use leverage, and they use far less of it than platforms permit. The reason is not caution as a personality trait; it is that position sizing is the variable with the largest effect on long-run outcomes, and high leverage removes the ability to be early. A trader with a correct thesis and low leverage survives being wrong about timing. The same trader at 50 times does not, and being right eventually is worth nothing once the position is closed.

The second practice is treating leverage as a cost input instead of a capability. Before entering, calculate the fee on the intended notional, add the expected funding over the intended holding period, and compare that total against the edge the trade is supposed to capture. Strategies that require high leverage to be worth executing are strategies whose edge is too small to survive their own costs, and the calculation reveals it in under a minute.

The third is watching the deleveraging indicator where a venue provides one. A rising rank during a favourable move is the venue telling you, in advance, that it considers your position a candidate for termination.

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The honest use cases

None of this argues that leverage should never be used, and a guide that concluded otherwise would be ignoring why the instrument exists.

Hedging: A holder with substantial spot exposure can use a small leveraged short to reduce net risk without selling the underlying. Here leverage is capital efficiency in the genuine sense: the alternative is tying up equivalent capital to achieve the same protection.

Defined-risk short-term positions: A trader with a specific thesis, a predetermined invalidation point, and a position sized so that reaching that point costs an acceptable fraction of capital is using leverage as intended, and the leverage figure is an output of the sizing, not an input.

Capital efficiency for market makers: Professionals quoting both sides need leverage to run inventory without locking up disproportionate collateral, and their risk is managed through hedging, not through directional conviction.

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What connects all three is that the leverage number falls out of the risk decision rather than driving it. The failure mode the interface encourages is the reverse: choosing a multiplier first, sizing to it, and discovering the risk afterwards.

The summary worth carrying is that everything in this guide is disclosed. Fee schedules state that fees apply to notional. Documentation states that funding applies to notional. Deleveraging pages state the ranking formula. Risk warnings state that a 1% move can end a 100-times position. What no venue publishes is the paragraph connecting them, because the connection is that the setting generating the most revenue is the setting most likely to end the account generating it.

The traditional-market comparison

The clearest way to see how unusual crypto leverage is comes from looking at what other markets permit, because the limits elsewhere were set deliberately after examining outcomes.

Retail participants in most regulated markets face leverage caps well below what crypto venues advertise, and the caps exist because supervisors studied client outcome data and concluded that higher levels produced consistent losses across the retail population. The details vary by jurisdiction and instrument, and the direction is uniform: where a regulator has examined retail leverage empirically, the response has been to restrict it. Crypto venues offering multiples several times higher are not evading those rules so much as operating in a space where the rules were never written.

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There is a second structural difference worth naming. Regulated futures markets sit behind a clearinghouse with a layered default waterfall: the defaulting member’s margin, then their guaranty fund contribution, then the clearinghouse’s own capital, then mutualised contributions from surviving members. Losses reach ordinary participants only after several institutional layers absorb them, which is why retail futures traders essentially never experience anything resembling auto-deleveraging.

Crypto venues compressed that structure into a single insurance fund or protocol vault. The compression is what makes leverage instantly available to anyone with a wallet, and it is also why the loss-allocation mechanism reaches ordinary traders in conditions where a traditional market would never expose them.

Neither design is simply better: one buys accessibility with tail risk, the other buys insulation with cost and gatekeeping. But a trader comparing a crypto venue’s 100-times offering to a regulated broker’s much lower cap should understand that the difference reflects a deliberate judgment somewhere, and it is not the venue offering the higher number that made it.

A closing note on the one number that would settle this debate and that no venue publishes.

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Every exchange knows, precisely, what percentage of accounts using each leverage tier are profitable over a given period. The data sits in their systems; it requires no research to produce, and it would answer the question this guide approaches through arithmetic: whether high leverage works for the people using it. Some regulated brokers in other markets are required to disclose exactly that figure, and where they do, the published numbers have been consistently unflattering.

No major crypto derivatives venue publishes it voluntarily. That absence is not proof of anything, and there are defensible reasons a venue might not want to advertise client outcome statistics, including that the figure varies enormously with how it is defined. But the absence is conspicuous in a sector that publishes volume, open interest, insurance fund balances, liquidation feeds, and deleveraging rankings in real time.

A venue willing to show you your own position in the deleveraging queue is a venue with the data infrastructure to show you the survival rate at your chosen leverage tier, and it does not.

Until someone does, the honest position for a trader is the one the arithmetic supports: leverage is a cost multiplier with certain effect and a return multiplier with probabilistic effect, the venue collects the first regardless of the second, and the setting that generates the most revenue is the setting the venue’s own risk engine flags as most fragile. That is enough to size positions by, without needing anyone’s disclosure.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How does leverage affect trading fees?

Directly and proportionally. Fees are charged on notional value, the full size of the position, not on the margin posted. A $1,000 deposit at 50 times leverage opens a $50,000 position and pays fees on $50,000, so the venue earns 50 times more from the same customer deposit than it would unleveraged.

Does funding also scale with leverage?

Yes. Funding payments in perpetual futures are calculated on the position’s notional value rather than the deposited margin, which means a leveraged position pays leveraged funding. Over multi-day holds in persistently crowded markets, that recurring cost can exceed the profit from a correct directional call.

How much can the price move before I am liquidated?

Approximately the inverse of your leverage, before costs. 10 times leverage gives roughly 10% of room, 25 times roughly 4%, 50 times roughly 2%, and 100 times under 1%. Fees, funding, and maintenance margin requirements move the liquidation point closer, and 2% intraday moves are routine in crypto.

Do stop-losses protect a high-leverage position?

Not reliably. In fast markets, the gap between a stop trigger and the actual fill can exceed the remaining margin on a highly leveraged position, meaning the stop executes after liquidation would already have occurred. The tool most often recommended alongside leverage is least effective at the leverage levels where it matters most.

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What is the deleveraging queue and why does leverage matter for it?

When a liquidation cannot clear, and the venue’s backstop is exhausted, the exchange force-closes profitable positions on the opposite side to balance its books. Venues rank candidates by unrealised profit and effective leverage, closing the most profitable and most leveraged first, and many display each trader’s rank live. High leverage raises your position in that queue even when you are winning.

Why do exchanges offer leverage they know most traders cannot handle?

Partly fee economics, since notional-based fees make leveraged accounts more valuable per dollar deposited, and partly competitive dynamics, since maximum leverage functions as a comparison-table marketing number that ratchets upward regardless of suitability. Most regulatory regimes restrict comparable leverage for retail participants in traditional markets, having examined the outcome data.

Is leverage ever the right tool?

Yes, in three cases: hedging existing spot exposure without selling it, defined-risk short-term positions sized so that reaching the invalidation point costs an acceptable fraction of capital, and professional market making that requires inventory without disproportionate collateral. What these share is that the leverage figure is an output of the risk decision rather than the starting point.

What should a beginner actually do?

Use far less leverage than the platform permits, calculate fees on intended notional plus expected funding before entering, and compare that to the edge you expect; size positions on the assumption that ordinary volatility will test them, and watch the deleveraging indicator if the venue provides one. The traders who last in these markets use a fraction of what is offered. This is educational information, not investment advice.

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Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Leveraged derivatives trading carries substantial risk of loss, including total loss of collateral; fee structures and mechanisms vary by venue, and products described may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Always do your own research. Information is accurate as of July 29, 2026.

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Here’s what changed in the second statement under Warsh

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Here's what changed in the second statement under Warsh

A television station broadcasts Kevin Warsh, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, speaking after a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, July 29, 2026.

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Economists and investors got their latest look at the Federal Reserve‘s new era of communication with Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee statement.

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Below is a comparison of Wednesday’s FOMC statement with the one issued after the Fed’s previous policymaking meeting in June.

Text removed from the June statement is in red with a horizontal line through the middle. Text appearing for the first time in the new statement is in red and underlined. Black text appears in both statements.

Wednesday’s release marked the second such statement under Chairman Kevin Warsh, who has promised a significant shakeup of how they Fed projects its expectations for monetary policy to the public.

The prior Fed statement in June offered one of the first glimpses into how different communication will look with Warsh at the helm.

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June’s statement contained around 130 words, down from figures above 300 recorded in recent meetings, according to a CNBC analysis of the releases. It contained no forward guidance or information about how FOMC members voted, both of which were fixtures of releases under predecessor Jerome Powell.

Warsh acknowledged a “difference” in the statement early in his first press conference as chair in June. He said forward guidance was “not well suited for the current policy conjuncture.”

“It’s a bit shorter, a bit simpler and it dispenses with some older language,” Warsh said in June. “That statement just gives you the facts, as best we can judge it.”

Investors had previously scoured the formulaic release for edits in language that could indicate a change in policy views within the central bank. But since last month’s release, traders have been wondering if the Fed would now use a new, shorter template — or if the statement will look substantially different each meeting.

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Some on Wall Street have turned to artificial intelligence-powered tools to parse communication from a Warsh-led central bank.

Warsh announced in June that he was forming task forces to review key aspects of the Fed’s operations. He said earlier this month that University of Washington professor Peter Fisher and former Bank of England Governor Mervin King are among the members of the communication-focused group.

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Robinhood Posts Record Quarter as Crypto Revenue Falls 38%

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Robinhood Posts Record Quarter as Crypto Revenue Falls 38%

Cointelegraph is committed to providing independent, high-quality journalism across the crypto, blockchain, AI, and fintech industries.

All news, reviews, and analyses are produced with full journalistic independence and integrity. For more details on our standards and processes, please read our Editorial Policy.

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Mark Your Calendar: This Could Be the Exact Date Bitcoin Finally Bottoms

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When will the Bitcoin bear market conclude, allowing the cryptocurrency to finally shift back into a sustained uptrend? The answer to this question is perhaps one of the most debated topics in the space.

And while investors are eager to see the return of the bulls, some analysts warn that they may have to endure more downside pressure throughout the summer and wait for better days by year-end.

When Exactly?

In October last year, BTC exploded to a new all-time high of over $126,000. Since then, though, the market has entered a bearish phase that briefly dragged the asset below $60K, and it now trades around $64,000.

Fear is running high, investor morale is shattered, and interest has slipped to a very low level. Yet this is far from the first bear market to sweep through crypto, and many analysts believe the bottom will be reached later in 2026.

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Ali Martinez claimed that if the 4-year cycle theory holds, BTC’s final floor could arrive between October 6 and October 16. The recurring pattern is mainly centered on Bitcoin’s halving, which occurs precisely every 210,000 blocks, or about 4 years. The concept is that the peak of the bull run arrives 12 to 18 months after the event and is followed by a sharp decline due to selling pressure and loss of momentum.

Eventually, the sell-off transitions into an accumulation phase prior to the next halving, with the upcoming one scheduled for the spring of 2028. Not long ago, CryptoPotato reported that BTC’s past behavior across different stages signals a potential bottom between October 4 and October 17 – a window which aligns almost perfectly to Martinez’s forecast.

But How Low?

Before the cycle bottoms, BTC holders may have to withstand a harsh final move south. According to X user Pepesso, BTC might fall to $49,000 before entering an accumulation phase.

“The real move higher likely won’t start until early 2027, once that bottom is fully in,” they added.

Crypto Lens issued an even more skeptical prediction, envisioning an “inevitable final capitulation” to $39,000 by October. After that, though, the analyst expects that the price could skyrocket to $150K by February next year.

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For their part, BATMAN noted a striking parallel between Bitcoin’s current market structure and that seen in the autumn of 2022, which was followed by a meltdown to around $16,000.

Of course, one must keep in mind that the collapse was driven largely by the demise of the once-prominent crypto exchange FTX. Over the past several weeks, leading platforms like BitMEX and BitMart announced they would shut down operations, yet the disclosures have had little to no impact on the price of the primary cryptocurrency.

The post Mark Your Calendar: This Could Be the Exact Date Bitcoin Finally Bottoms appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Polymarket Odds on CLARITY Act Crash to 28% as Senate Misses August Deadline

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Polymarket Odds on CLARITY Act Crash to 28% as Senate Misses August Deadline

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act will not receive a Senate floor vote before the August 7 recess, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune acknowledging the chamber lacks time to complete debate, amendments, and a cloture vote before lawmakers leave Washington.

The admission is not merely a scheduling inconvenience, it compresses an already tight legislative calendar and forces the market-structure bill into a September session that carries far less political momentum, while prediction markets are pricing in a sharply diminished probability of enactment this year.

Source: Polymarket

Polymarket odds on the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 have fallen to approximately 28%, down from a peak of 82% in February.

Each missed deadline, a White House-floated July 4 signing ceremony, a late-July practical window, and now the August recess, has eroded confidence that Congress can deliver a comprehensive crypto regulation framework before election-cycle gridlock takes hold.

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Competing Priorities Crowd Out Floor Time

The Senate’s pre-recess schedule has been consumed by a Russia sanctions package and a backlog of executive, intelligence, and judicial nominations, leaving no viable window for the multi-step procedural requirements the CLARITY Act demands.

The bill requires floor debate, a potential amendment process, and a 60-vote cloture threshold before any final passage vote, a sequence that cannot realistically be compressed into the days remaining before August 7.

Republicans currently hold enough seats to bring the bill forward but need approximately 10 Democratic senators to clear the filibuster threshold.

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That math alone made a late-July push difficult; the displaced floor calendar makes it impossible. Thune previously indicated he hoped to at least begin consideration of the legislation before recess, a formulation that itself signals how far expectations have receded from outright passage.

The CLARITY Act cleared the House on July 17, 2025, with a 294–134 vote and now sits on the Senate Legislative Calendar as Calendar No. 423 with no cloture motion filed and no floor time formally allocated. That means all remaining execution risk sits entirely on the Senate side, and it is substantial.

Ethics Language and Enforcement Authority Remain Unresolved

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Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced amended legislation designed to merge the versions approved by the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees, and the updated text includes ethics clauses targeting digital asset transactions by public officials.

Under the amendment, public officials and the president would be prohibited from issuing or sponsoring digital assets, with existing holdings subject to blind trusts, divestment, or equivalent procedures. Those restrictions would expire on January 20, 2029.

The ethics language was a direct response to concerns over cryptocurrency business ventures linked to President Trump and his family, but seven Democratic senators, Catherine Cortez Masto, Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Ruben Gallego, John Hickenlooper, Mark Warner, and Raphael Warnock, said the revised provisions do not go far enough.

Cynthia Lummis

Their demands cover stronger consumer protection, illicit finance safeguards, and market integrity measures, and none of those objections has been resolved ahead of the recess.

Enforcement authority presents a separate but equally intractable dispute. The updated bill centralizes enforcement responsibility with federal agencies – primarily the SEC and CFTC – rather than preserving parallel state-level authority.

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New York Attorney General Letitia James warned that the framework could restrict states from applying their own investor protection laws to digital asset fraud cases, a concern that resonates particularly in states with aggressive securities enforcement traditions. The core disagreement is whether federal jurisdiction would preempt or merely supplement state enforcement schemes, and neither side has moved significantly toward the other.

Stablecoin yield provisions and the treatment of decentralized finance protocols remain open as well. These technical sections carry direct commercial implications for exchanges, stablecoin issuers, and DeFi protocols, making rapid compromise unlikely.

The scale of industry lobbying behind the CLARITY Act, including significant political spending from crypto-aligned PACs, reflects how much is at stake commercially, but lobbying intensity has not translated into the bipartisan vote count supporters need.

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U.S. wants Asia to use its AI, but China dominates cheaper models

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Localized demand shields China AI from global semiconductor volatility: Morgan Stanley

Google’s display at APEC Digital Weeks in Chengdu on July 23, 2026 did not focus on Gemini.

Evelyn Cheng | CNBC

BEIJING — The artificial intelligence race between the U.S. and China is heating up in the world’s largest continent: Asia.

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“The American strategy is to stop China from becoming the leading AI supplier for the rest of Asia … and frankly the whole world,” said Gary Dvorchak, managing director at The Blueshirt Group. While China’s alternatives are cheaper, he pointed out the U.S. currently offers a more complete solution from chips to AI models.

But the U.S. sales challenge was apparent at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation “Digital Weeks” in the southwestern Chinese city of Chengdu this month.

The U.S. left few public traces of its involvement in the event, despite a U.S. official and a U.S. business representative to APEC both highlighting AI in promoting the Chengdu event earlier this year. The subdued U.S. presence comes after Anthropic flip-flopped on its Fable AI model release due to abrupt U.S. policy changes, and new Chinese AI models have recently launched similar capabilities for far less.

In contrast, last summer at the first APEC AI meeting in South Korea, Michael Kratsios, President Donald Trump’s chief science and technology policy advisor, highlighted the U.S. AI Action Plan and the establishment of the American AI Exports Program, according to a White House transcript of his remarks.

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Localized demand shields China AI from global semiconductor volatility: Morgan Stanley

However, earlier this month Politico cited three former officials in reporting the Commerce Department has so far received a less-than-expected 78 applications for the American AI Exports Program.

And on July 24 at an APEC High-level Forum on AI organized by China’s cybersecurity regulator, Bill Guidera, deputy under secretary for innovation and engagement at the U.S. Department of Commerce, still focused on the AI exports program, according to materials reviewed by CNBC.

He called broadly for Asia-Pacific partnerships, noting buyers can acquire a full U.S. tech stack or just portions through the exports program. “It is the brilliant design that shows the strength, security and capability of U.S. AI,” Guidera said.

The Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration confirmed in a July 29 social media post that Guidera spoke in Chengdu. When asked about the Politico report, an ITA spokesperson said the volume of applications “exceeded our expectations.” The White House did not respond to a CNBC request for comment.

American business showcases were also limited. Google and Meta were the only U.S. companies that CNBC noted had booths at APEC as of July 23, among booths for Thailand and China, which were mostly Chengdu-based companies. The two U.S. companies respectively emphasized molecular AI system AlphaFold and AI applications for small businesses, rather than large language models.

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Google’s government affairs vice president, Wilson L. White, only made passing references to Gemini in a speech on July 24, while Tencent Vice President Cai Guangzhong took the stage after White to emphasize growing adoption of its Hunyuan LLM and a cloud project in Thailand.

Beijing’s AI diplomacy

China is hosting APEC this year, which comes at a critical moment of U.S.-China tensions and tech rivalry.

Beijing has doubled down on the opportunity to emphasize its AI capabilities, which are mostly open-source versus largely closed U.S. models.

Chinese President Xi Jinping announced at the World AI Conference in Shanghai on July 17 that China would provide developing countries with 5,000 opportunities in AI training and seminars, while developing AI application cooperation centers with Southeast Asia and other regions.

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Beijing then sent a high-ranking official, Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing, to advocate for developing tech standards with other Asia Pacific nations at the minister-level APEC Digital Weeks on July 23. Later that day, the 21 member economies, including the U.S., agreed to back open-source AI with “strong security.”

“The ‘endorsement’ of open-source models with strong security assurance gives China’s open-weight strategy greater regional legitimacy, especially across emerging Asian economies where deployment cost and technological sovereignty are major considerations,” said Wei Sun, principal analyst, artificial intelligence, Counterpoint Research.

Forced integration

But rather than a world divided into spheres of U.S. and Chinese AI, Sun expects a combination of the tech, especially in Asia.

With more than 1,300 living languages in Southeast Asia alone, just using a U.S. or Chinese AI model isn’t as straightforward as it looks.

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Governments in Asia and elsewhere are spending “billions” on AI systems tailored to local languages, according to privately funded startup Votee AI. CEO Pak-Sun Ting said he is working with at least five governments, including two in Southeast Asia, and that the startup is already making well over $10 million in revenue a year.

Ting said entities in Southeast Asia tend to use Nvidia chips, especially for AI training, but may use other chips for running models. He noted Votee’s open-source model for Cantonese speakers was developed partly using Alibaba’s open-source Qwen model.

AI’s ability to generate economic returns remains critical regardless of origin.

“While the U.S. and China are fiercely competing in AI technology and diplomacy through distinct approaches, they ultimately cannot fully decouple from one another,” said Yue Su, principal economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

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She pointed out the light U.S. presence at APEC wasn’t that surprising given other events, such as a San Francisco AI Summit on July 24.

South Korea’s tech ministry organized the event, where President Lee Jae-myung sought to build on Korean chip and AI megaprojects by meeting with U.S. frontier AI model leaders Sam Altman of OpenAI, Dario Amodei of Anthropic and Jensen Huang of Nvidia.

—CNBC’s Jenny Lee contributed to this report.

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The last times the Dow fell 1,000 points and what happened next

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Traders works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at the opening bell on March 5, 2026 in New York City.

Angela Weiss | Afp | Getty Images

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1,000 points on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady while U.S. oil neared $85 per barrel.

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In the last five years, the blue-chip index has closed down more than 1,000 points nine times. Typically, the index tends to fall in the week after the large decline, but then performs well in the one-month and three- month periods that follow.

The Dow is flat on a median basis a day after falling 1,000 points in one session. One week after, its performance worsens with a loss of 1.14%. One month after the fact, however, the Dow sees a median gain of nearly 2%. Three months after, that gain balloons to 9.1%.

Three of the nine 1,000 point drops happened amid the fallout after President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” in April 2025, when he announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs on countries across the globe. The Dow and the broader market rebounded after their initial two-day dramatic fall once Trump announced a 90-day pause on the tariff plan, though the blue-chip average fell again on April 10 as high tariffs on China remained. 

U.S. equities began to recover later in April after Trump and China signaled trade tensions were easing

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Four other drops happened in 2022. Inflation was surging that year, and the Federal Reserve hiked its overnight rate multiple times to contain it. Investors worried that higher rates could lead to an economic slowdown and potentially a recession, pushing the Dow and the other major averages to fall into bear market territory. 

Markets bottomed in October 2022 and the current bull market began. 

The other two big drops for the Dow were in August and December 2024. The former was driven by concerns over the U.S. labor market after a weaker-than-expected jobs report and a sharp fall in the Japanese stock market, while the latter was caused by the Federal Reserve indicating it would take a cautious approach on cutting interest rates.

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Dow, 1-day

Currently, investors are worried about the Fed’s decision to stay on the sidelines at the conclusion of its July 2026 meeting amid above-target inflation. It came while oil prices rose again after Trump promised to hit Iran in retaliation for a surprise attack on American forces. While the central bank decided to maintain rates at the current range of 3.5% to 3.75% for now, three members dissented in favor of a hike, indicating rising rates may be on the horizon.

Going by history, the fallout from this one-day decline may linger further.

CNBC’s Fred Imbert contributed reporting

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