Bitcoin (BTC) sees its first weekly close above $80,000 since early May as clouds gather over the US inflation outlook.

Key points:

• US PPI and CPI inflation numbers are due this week prior to the Fed’s Sept. 16 decision on interest-rate changes.
• Amid record currency interventions, analysis warns that Japan may not be able to sell US treasuries to help stabilize the yen in going forward.
• Bitcoin’s supertrend indicator delivers its first “buy” signal since late 2025, copying the previous bear-market recovery.

CPI, PPI due as markets see 0.25% rate hike next

US inflation data returns to the forefront this week after surprise employment data pressured crypto and risk assets. The August prints of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) are due for release on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

CPI matched market expectations at 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year last month, continuing on from softer-than-anticipated June results. Although the numbers paint a positive picture for inflation, Kevin Warsh, chair of the US Federal Reserve, stated that these data prints alone did not support the case for reassessing financial policy.

“Each of these broad inflation measures have fallen significantly from their highs of a few years ago, but progress through the past couple of years has been more modest, and while this summer’s PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved,” he said at the Jackson Hole economic symposium in late August, referring to the Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.

In response to the speech, markets priced in an increased likelihood of Federal Reserve rate hikes at its next meeting on Sept. 16. The latest data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that consensus favors a 0.25% rate hike, with odds at 58.4%.

Fed target rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Fears of rate hikes were also spurred by last week’s nonfarm payrolls data, which came in far stronger than expected and included upward revisions of prior figures. The US economy added 162,000 jobs in August against a prior estimate of 56,000. 

A stronger labor market reduces the need for the Fed to loosen policy, cementing the potential for rate hikes with core inflation still above its 2% target. Markets have maintained a hawkish outlook on rates. This is despite Fed governor Christopher Waller voicing support for an ongoing rate-hike pause and US president Donald Trump renewing pressure on the Fed to enact rate cuts last week.

“The Fed Board, with its great new leader, must get smart – BE PATRIOTS for a change. High interest rates put the U.S.A. at a very unfair disadvantage, ⁠and I won’t allow that to happen!” he wrote in a post on Truth Social.

Both PPI and CPI have the potential to alter the outlook prior to the meeting, with crypto market volatility often accompanying inflation-data prints.

Commenting, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company noted that the strong jobs numbers could still offer stocks a silver lining.

“While the knee-jerk reaction is centered around the rate outlook, it’s worth keeping in mind that good news for the economy should be good news for corporate earnings. The jobs report adds to recent data pointing to an economy expanding at solid pace, which should support the bull market looking ahead,” it wrote in analysis at the weekend. 

Mosaic cautioned that seasonality could add an additional hurdle, with September traditionally equities’ worst-performing month, while November’s US midterm elections should make for more volatile conditions into Q4. 

Japanese yen interventions hit record

Traders are focused on the Japanese yen as new government data reveals the extent of its record currency interventions. 

On Monday, Japan’s Ministry of Finance reported that its foreign reserves had decreased by $79.57 billion from the end of July amid a record currency intervention in the yen. Japan’s currency strengthened to 155 against the US dollar as a result, still holding that area during Monday’s Asia trading session.  

“Japan may have used both foreign securities and deposits, but it most likely sold U.S. Treasurys,” Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Research Institute, told Bloomberg.

USD/JPY one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The move had potential implications beyond the yen, with US bond yields already facing pressure at the long end, prompting the Treasury to announce contingency measures set to begin on Sept. 9. Japan selling US Treasuries to fund future interventions may draw a negative response from Washington, leaving the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in a bind should yen weakness return.

“That would make it difficult for the ministry and the Bank of Japan to act going forward,” Akari Nishimura, economist at the Japan Research Institute, added.

Polymarket probabilities for BOJ rate decision on Sept. 18. Source: Polymarket

Traders now price in an interest-rate hike by the BOJ in September, with benchmark rates already at their highest since 1995 at 1.0%. Data from Polymarket currently sees 98% odds of a 0.25% increase.

Crypto markets remain highly sensitive to moves in USD/JPY and associated headlines due to the potential longer-term impact on the yen carry trade and liquidity trends. 

Bitcoin spot market activity still lacking

Bitcoin still needs more spot-market participation to exit its current low-timeframe range centered around $80,000, analysis argues.

Onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant notes that upside volatility seen over the past week was accompanied by sharp upticks in open interest (OI) on derivatives exchanges. This points to derivatives traders dictating snap price moves.

“Aggregate Open Interest rose from $25.2B to $27.53B: +$2.3B (+9.24%) in a single session. On the hourly timeframe, price and OI began expanding almost simultaneously around 09:00 UTC, pointing to a strong influx of new positions,” CryptoQuant reported about a previous price move on Sept. 3, when BTC/USD last rose above $82,000.

CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin’s realized cap — the aggregate value of the BTC supply measured by the price at which it last moved onchain — has not kept pace with moves in OI.

“The conclusion is clear: the rally had spot/on-chain participation, but the main driver was derivatives. OI expansion, aggressive buying, positive funding, and rising leverage created a structure far more dependent on futures than on realized on-chain capital,” it continued.

Cointelegraph previously reported that the lack of spot demand is a major hurdle to a sustained BTC price trend change. As BTC/USD returned investors to net profit last month, profit taking surged.

CryptoQuant warns that spot demand remains negative, with values increasingly diverging from futures on a 30-day rolling basis.

“While futures demand is driving the rise, spot demand continues to show a negative trend. This is not a good signal, as there can be no bullish rally without spot demand. Despite the rebound, the outflow of spot $BTC has increased further,” it commented.

Bitcoin demand growth comparison (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Last week, Cointelegraph reported on the return of negative apparent demand, which reflects that BTC’s dormant supply growth outpaced new issuance.

BTC price seals first weekly close above $80,000 in four months

Bitcoin narrowly touched $80,000 on Sunday, marking its highest weekly close since the week of May 11, per data from TradingView.

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The $80,000 mark remains elusive support, however, with bulls unable to remain above it consistently as sell-side liquidity mounts immediately above this level. The latest data from CoinGlass shows liquidity concentrated around $80,560, forming a thick wall of resistance, which is keeping BTC/USD pinned in a narrow range.

BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

Last month, onchain analytics platform Glassnode flagged large liquidity bands as key to shaping Bitcoin’s longer-term price action, highlighting a further band between $83,000 and $86,000 in particular.

“While the upward impulse consumed short orders in its path, it stopped short of the dense cluster of short liquidations situated between $83K and $86K,” it wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain. 

“Below spot, the move left behind an intact band of long liquidation fuel between $60K and $63K. Price now trades between these two boundaries.”

Bitcoin futures liquidation heatmap. Source: Glassnode

Market participants, meanwhile, are considering where the current consolidation could resolve to fresh upside. Jesse Olson, developer of the Markets Sniper trading suite, sees BTC/USD repeating a bullish chart fractal from August 2023, with $76,000 now in sight as a local reversal point.

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Jesse Olson on X.com

Bitcoin supertrend bull signal copies early 2023 recovery

Sunday’s weekly close saw a classic BTC price trend indicator flip green for the first time since November 2025.

Related: Here’s what happened in crypto today

On weekly time frames, BTC/USD closed above its supertrend line, producing a “buy” signal. Supertrend employs average trend range (ATR) data and a multiplier to calculate a simple buy and sell signal, measured by its interaction with the supertrend line. 

Weekly time frames draw particular attention from Bitcoin traders, as a close above the supertrend line has never occurred within a bear market. The last time that supertrend flipped from red to green was in mid-January 2023, with Bitcoin’s last bear-market bottom of $15,600 already two months behind it. Conversely, the indicator flipping from green to red has preceded the start of protracted downtrends.

BTC/USD one-week chart with supertrend data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The signal joins a growing selection of cues that has instilled confidence in some that Bitcoin already saw its macro bottom at $57,000. In August, BTC/USD closed above its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since late 2025 — an event that has historically been crucial for a long-term bullish price-trend reversal.

Key takeaways

• Bittensor trades higher on Monday, extending its five-day gain to approximately 25%.
• TAO’s social dominance has increased amid renewed interest in AI tokens and the launch of the Buttensor meme coin on Solana.
• TAO open interest reached a three-month high of $428.57 million, indicating growing derivatives activity.

Bittensor (TAO) trades in positive territory on Monday, extending its steady five-day rally to approximately 25%.

The artificial intelligence-focused token gained 16% last week before rising another 12% on Sunday. TAO has now reached a two-month high as buyers target a breakout above the psychological resistance at $300.

Social activity surrounding Bittensor is also increasing, supported by renewed interest in AI-related cryptocurrencies and the launch of a similarly named meme coin on Solana.

Bittensor meme coin drives attention toward TAO

A Bittensor parody token named Buttensor (BUTT) launched on Raydium, a Solana-based decentralized exchange, on Monday.

The meme coin’s debut followed Raydium’s official launch of TAO trading on the platform a day earlier. BUTT was subsequently paired with TAO.

The meme coin’s tokenomics direct transaction fees toward automatically purchasing TAO and distributing the acquired tokens to BUTT holders. The arrangement connects speculative activity around the meme coin with demand for Bittensor’s native token.

However, the sustainability of this buying pressure will depend on continued trading activity and retail interest in BUTT.

The release of ChatGPT-6 Astra has also coincided with renewed demand for AI-focused cryptocurrencies.

Santiment data shows that TAO’s social dominance climbed to 0.05% on Thursday following Astra’s release. The metric has since risen to 0.12%, with the launch of Buttensor contributing to the increase in online discussion.

Social dominance measures an asset’s share of cryptocurrency-related conversations. A rising reading can indicate growing investor interest, although elevated social activity can also accompany speculative price movements.

Activity in Bittensor’s derivatives market has strengthened alongside the price rally. CoinGlass data shows that TAO open interest reached a three-month high of $428.57 million on Monday. 

The increase indicates that traders are adding positions rather than simply closing existing contracts during the rally.

Rising open interest alongside an advancing price generally supports a bullish outlook. However, a large buildup in leveraged positions could increase volatility and liquidation risk if TAO suddenly reverses.

TAO momentum strengthens near $300

Bittensor trades comfortably above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, which are clustered between approximately $220 and $236.

Its position above these major indicators confirms the strength of the current uptrend and provides several potential support levels during a correction.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains above its signal line in positive territory, suggesting upside momentum is intact.

However, the Relative Strength Index has reached 70 on the daily chart. This reading places TAO at the threshold of overbought conditions and warns that the rally could temporarily cool as traders take profits.

The psychological $300 level represents TAO’s immediate resistance. A confirmed daily close above $300 would reinforce the bullish outlook and could open the path toward $369, a high recorded on Sept. 13, 2025.

Conversely, rejection from $300 could trigger a pullback toward the 200-day EMA near $236. If that support fails, the 100-day EMA at $222 and the 50-day EMA around $220 form a deeper demand zone.

TAO’s outlook remains bullish while it trades above the moving-average cluster, but overbought conditions leave the token vulnerable to a short-term correction before another breakout attempt.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas proposed a 12-month suspension of new payment-system operator registrations while introducing tighter controls for payment arrangements involving virtual asset service providers.

Under its proposed circular, the BSP would temporarily stop accepting and processing applications to register as an operator of a payment system, or OPS.

The central bank said the pause would support a “holistic review” of its OPS taxonomy, registration process and licensing framework. The proposal remains an exposure draft and does not impose an immediate suspension.

Applications submitted before the pause begins could continue through the BSP’s evaluation process. However, the regulator would neither approve nor deny those applications until the 12-month period ends.

Applicants would also be prohibited from starting activities that require OPS registration during the freeze unless the BSP provides separate authorization. Existing registered operators are not ordered to stop operating under the draft.

The BSP already maintains an OPS registration system under the National Payment Systems Act. Its official guidance says registration creates a baseline inventory that the regulator uses to assess payment-system activities, participants and systemic risks.

Crypto payment arrangements face direct-merchant rules

The proposed Philippines payment rules would require BSP-supervised institutions providing merchant acquisition services to deal directly with regulated VASPs rather than place them behind layered payment facilitators.

A direct merchant arrangement means the acquiring institution holds the contractual relationship with the merchant. This structure gives the institution direct access to information needed for onboarding, transaction monitoring and settlement controls.

The requirement would cover virtual asset businesses that must hold a license, registration or authorization from the BSP, the Philippine Securities and Exchange Commission or another relevant authority.

VASPs appear in the draft alongside casinos, gaming operators, adult-oriented businesses and money-service businesses. The grouping reflects the regulator’s assessment that these sectors need stronger controls. It does not mean the BSP considers their underlying activities identical.

Institutions dealing with covered firms would need enhanced due diligence, closer transaction monitoring and risk-based limits. Those limits could apply to transaction values, settlement schedules and total exposure.

The proposal builds on earlier BSP measures. As previously reported, the central bank tightened token listing and monitoring requirements for licensed VASPs in June. Those rules require continuing reviews and defined suspension or delisting triggers.

Existing layered arrangements would face review

BSP-supervised institutions would need to identify existing payment arrangements involving covered merchants. Layered structures would face an assessment to determine whether they comply with the proposed direct-merchant requirement.

Institutions would reportedly receive six months to complete that review and another six months to address identified weaknesses. Required changes could include restructuring contracts, imposing limits or ending arrangements that exceed the institution’s risk tolerance.

The draft would also strengthen merchant identification. The BSP plans a centralized National QR Code Merchant Database intended to help institutions identify fraudulent, prohibited or problematic merchants across payment networks.

These requirements could affect banks, electronic-money issuers, merchant acquirers and payment facilitators connecting virtual asset platforms to local payment channels. The operational burden will depend on how the BSP defines covered arrangements in the final circular.

The licensing distinction has already affected international crypto companies. Crypto.news previously reported that Binance and BlockShoals lacked BSP-issued VASP licenses, despite participating in the SEC’s StratBox sandbox program.

The SEC later approved BlockShoals to begin sandbox testing, but that sandbox approval preserved separate BSP licensing requirements. The proposed payment rules would add another compliance layer for institutions serving similar arrangements.

BSP will review feedback before finalizing the rules

The BSP is accepting written comments through its policy exposure draft portal. The regulator says stakeholders should submit feedback to the policy officers identified alongside each draft.

The central bank may revise the suspension, implementation periods or covered arrangements after reviewing industry responses. No registration freeze begins solely because the draft has been published for consultation.

If adopted in its current form, the circular would take effect 15 days after publication in the Official Gazette or a newspaper of general circulation. The 12-month pause would begin according to the effective provisions of the final document.

Payment companies should therefore monitor the final text, particularly its treatment of pending applications and existing relationships with VASPs. Regulated crypto firms may also need to establish direct arrangements with acquiring institutions before continuing access to some Philippine payment channels.

Japan’s changing crypto framework has strengthened Shiba Inu’s position in the country, but as of September 7 no regulator, exchange or asset manager has filed for or approved a Japanese SHIB exchange-traded fund.

Japan’s parliament passed legislation on July 15 that brings crypto assets closer to the regulatory system used for financial products. The official legislative record shows that the upper house approved the bill that day. The government promulgated it as Law No. 64 on July 23.

The legislation strengthens disclosure, trading and intermediary rules under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. It provides a possible legal foundation for regulated crypto funds. However, it does not approve an ETF for Bitcoin, Shiba Inu or any other individual asset.

The distinction matters because an ETF also requires detailed regulations, an eligible structure, an asset manager, an exchange listing process and regulatory clearance. None of those steps has been announced for SHIB.

Shiba Inu’s Green List status covers exchange reviews

Shiba Inu does appear on the Japan Virtual and Crypto Assets Exchange Association’s official Green List. The list identifies crypto assets that are widely handled by the association’s Japanese members and satisfy four stated conditions.

Those conditions include handling by at least three member companies and a trading history of at least six months. The asset must also have no special conditions imposed by the association or another reason making its inclusion unsuitable.

The September 1 list shows nine member companies handling SHIB. That compares with 29 for Bitcoin, 28 for Ether and 19 for XRP. Green List inclusion can simplify parts of an exchange’s review process, but it does not create automatic ETF eligibility.

A community commentator described the designation as giving SHIB a “head start.” That remains an interpretation rather than a conclusion published by the Financial Services Agency or JVCEA.

Mercari expanded retail access to SHIB in June

Mercari subsidiary Mercoin officially added access to SHIB and 11 other assets on June 8. The service allows eligible customers to trade the assets with Coincheck through the Mercari application, according to the company’s announcement.

Mercoin said its crypto service had passed four million cumulative account openings by March 2026. About 90% of surveyed users had no previous crypto-trading experience, although that figure covers Mercoin’s broader customer base rather than SHIB buyers specifically.

The integration therefore expands SHIB’s retail availability in Japan. It does not mean Mercari has issued an investment fund, applied for an ETF or endorsed a future SHIB product.

Japan still needs ETF and tax implementation rules

Japan’s legislation advances a regulatory process that began with Financial Services Agency discussions about moving crypto toward securities-style oversight. As crypto.news previously reported, earlier policy discussions focused primarily on Bitcoin and Ether as potential initial ETF assets.

A Japanese SHIB ETF would require an identifiable sponsor to submit a product, regulators to establish listing and custody requirements, and an exchange to accept the fund. No such application appears in the official materials reviewed for this report.

Tax reform also remains incomplete. In related coverage, crypto.news reported that the proposed 20% separate tax rate is targeted for 2028. It is not currently available merely because an asset appears on the Green List.

The next confirmed step is regulatory implementation of the amended legislation. Claims that Japanese crypto ETFs could arrive in 2027 remain forecasts. SHIB has gained broader regulated exchange access, but its ETF prospects remain unconfirmed.

Meanwhile, SHIB traded at $0.0000055 at press time, indicating a 8% increase in in the past 7 days and 17% in the past month.