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Bhutan Bitcoin Sell-Offs Raise Questions as Net Outflows Reach $120 Million

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Bhutan has recorded a net Bitcoin outflow of approximately $120 million since the start of 2025.
  • The government moves Bitcoin in $5M–$10M batches, sending funds to exchanges and firms like QCP Capital.
  • A recent transfer of 123.7 BTC worth $8.5M went to a fresh address with a different address type.
  • Bhutan’s total Bitcoin holdings have dropped by around 1,700 BTC, raising questions about a full exit.

Bhutan Bitcoin sell-offs have drawn attention from the crypto community in recent weeks. On-chain intelligence firm Arkham has flagged a steady pattern of Bitcoin liquidations by the Himalayan kingdom.

Since the start of 2025, Bhutan has moved approximately $158.57 million out of its main holding addresses. With $38.84 million transferred back in, the net outflow sits at around $120 million. This activity points to a consistent reduction in the country’s Bitcoin reserves.

Bhutan Moves Bitcoin in Steady Clips to Exchanges and Market Makers

The Bhutanese government has been sending Bitcoin to exchanges and market makers in batches. Each transfer typically falls within the $5 million to $10 million range.

Recipients have included trading firms like QCP Capital, per Arkham’s data. This pattern suggests a structured approach to liquidation.

In mid to late September 2025, Bhutan sold approximately 3,500 BTC over a short window. That period stood out as one of the larger sell-offs from the country’s wallets.

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The transfers followed the same routing pattern seen throughout the year. Arkham noted the activity as consistent with Bhutan’s overall selling behavior.

More recently, Bhutan moved 123.7 BTC, valued at roughly $8.5 million, to a fresh address. Arkham observed that the destination used a different address type from Bhutan’s main holdings.

This detail raised questions about the ultimate destination of the funds. The transfer size closely matched the country’s typical batch range.

Arkham flagged the transfer on X, citing the address type difference and the routing to a new wallet. The post attracted wide attention from traders and analysts across the crypto space.

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Many began monitoring Bhutan’s on-chain wallets more closely following the announcement. The firm also noted a rise in outbound transfer frequency in recent weeks.

Questions Mount Over Bhutan’s Bitcoin Mining Future

Bhutan’s outbound transfer volume has been rising, with total holdings declining by roughly 1,700 BTC since January. This reduction has come through a series of smaller, recurring outflows rather than one large transaction.

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The approach points to a gradual and methodical drawdown strategy. Arkham’s data confirms that the pattern has held steady throughout the year.

Not every outbound transfer reflects a permanent exit from Bhutan’s Bitcoin reserves. A portion totaling $38.84 million was transferred back into its holding addresses during the same period.

However, the net movement still strongly favors outflows. The country appears to be reducing its position in a measured way.

Bhutan became one of the first sovereign nations to mine Bitcoin at a national scale. The country drew on its hydroelectric energy surplus to run large mining operations over several years.

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Its growing reserves went largely unnoticed until on-chain platforms brought the wallets to public attention. Whether Bhutan plans to fully exit the Bitcoin mining sector remains an open question.

Market observers are watching Bhutan’s wallets closely for signs of further acceleration. Sovereign-level selling, even in small clips, tends to draw attention from institutional traders.

The growing frequency of transfers adds weight to concerns about a possible full exit. Arkham’s tracking of Bhutan’s addresses will remain the key source of updates going forward.

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Crypto World

Current BTC Price Action Shows Dramatic Underperformance: Analyst

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Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving

The current Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle is “dramatically” weaker than the three previous cycles, according to Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research at investment firm Galaxy.

Thorn compared price action since the April 2024 Bitcoin halving to cycles triggered in 2012, 2016 and 2020; the current cycle shows significantly dampened volatility and lower upside. The all-time high above $125,000 on Oct. 5, 2025 was only 97% above the 2024 halving price around $63,000.

BTC’s price increased by about 9,294% during the 2012 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $1,163, and climbed by about 2,950% during the 2016 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $19,891. The 2020 halving saw a price increase of about 761%.

Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving
A comparison of Bitcoin’s price action in previous halving cycles. Source: Alex Thorn

“Cycle four is dramatically underperforming prior cycles,” Thorn said in an X post, asking, “Is this the new normal, or is it the new normal until it isn’t?”

The decreasing volatility in each successive BTC halving cycle suggests that traditional market dynamics are changing and that BTC’s price may start to be influenced more by other factors, rather than the halving or the four-year cycle market theory.

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The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index, which spiked to 9.64% on April 2, 2020, has not been above 3.11% in the current cycle, a reading last tipped on Aug. 24, 2024. At last look, the latest 30-day estimate for that volatility gauge is 1.75%, according to Bitbo data.

Related: Bitcoin bull run ‘still too early’ to call as demand lags exiting capital: Analyst

Critics say current cycle performance ignores the premature all-time high before 2024’s halving

BTC reached what was then the all-time high above the $70,000 level in March 2024 — one month before the April 2024 halving.

The approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States in January 2024 was the primary catalyst for the price pump.

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Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving
The price of BTC hit an all-time high before the April 2024 halving. Source: TradingView

This historic anomaly of BTC hitting a new all-time high before the halving skewed the current cycle’s price performance, critics of Thorn’s analysis said.

Bitcoin drawdowns have also become less severe, as volatility has declined, according to Fidelity Digital Assets.

Previous Bitcoin bear markets have seen declines between 80% and 90%, according to Zack Wainwright, a Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst.

However, Bitcoin’s crash to $60,000 from the all-time high above $125,000 represents a decline just north of 50%, Fidelity’s analysis noted.

In March, Jan van Eck, CEO of asset management company VanEck, said that BTC is close to bottoming out and that he expects the price to begin gradually rising again in 2026. 

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At last look, the biggest crypto was trading at about $74,703, up almost 5% in the last seven days, according to TradingView data.

Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt