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Bitcoin $80,000 play is now the most popular bet in derivatives: Crypto Daybook Americas

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Crypto daily April 9 (CoinDesk)
Crypto daily April 9 (CoinDesk)

Sentiment in the bitcoin market appears to have flipped after a long time, suggesting an investor positioning for a potential rally to $80,000.

On Deribit, which accounts for a majority share of the multi-billion dollar global crypto options market, the $80,000 call — a derivatives bet that prices will rise beyond that level — has emerged as the most popular trade. It has overtaken the $60,000 put, which dominated positioning in recent months as prices declined.

As of writing, open interest at the $80,000 strike stands at over $1.6 billion, with each contract representing one bitcoin, according to Deribit data. The $60,000 put has an open interest of $1.41 billion.

BTC has already rebounded above $70,000 from early-week lows near $67,000, supported in part by a temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran that weighed on oil prices. Analysts say continued weakness in oil could help ease inflation concerns, potentially strengthening the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts — a backdrop that tends to support risk assets, including bitcoin.

On-chain data offers some additional supports the bullish case.

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“For only the second week in 2026, Bitcoin wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC have recorded net inflows. This points to whale accumulation rather than ETF-driven demand. If sustained, it raises the likelihood of a supply squeeze that could push Bitcoin toward the $75,000–$80,000 range,” said Paul Howard, senior director at crypto liquidity provider Wincent.

Separately, analysts at 21Shares see scope for further upside, with a potential move toward $100,000 by the end of June under favorable conditions.

“Over the past month, we’ve seen more than $1.5 billion in net inflows into BTC ETFs, alongside an increase in holdings by larger investors of around 6% since the start of the year — pointing to continued demand from more sophisticated participants,” said Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares. “If geopolitical tensions ease and regulatory clarity improves, a move toward $100,000 by the end of Q2 cannot be ruled out.”

Still, risks remain. The ceasefire is fragile, and any renewed escalation could send oil prices higher again, potentially dampening risk appetite and capping bitcoin’s gains.

Later today, the U.S. fourth-quarter GDP data is due. While the backward-looking release may have limited immediate impact, a significant surprise in either direction could still trigger short-term volatility. Stay alert!

What’s trending

Today’s signal

BTC's daily price swings in candlestick format. (TradingView)

The chart shows bitcoin’s daily price swings in candlestick format since October 2025. It also has a yellow trendline drawn off the record high of over $126,000 in October represents the brutal bear market.

As of writing, BTC’s price traded close to that trendline resistance, a make or break level.

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A decisive breakout above the trendline – ideally on strong volume and sustained follow-through – would mean the downtrend has likely tun its course. That could open the door for a broader bullish trend reversal, with scope for a move toward the $75,000–$80,000 region initially, and potentially higher if momentum builds.

On the other hand, a rejection at the trendline would reinforce it as a valid resistance level, suggesting continuation of the bear market. This would raise the risk of another pullback toward recent support levels, potentially ito $65,000 or lower.

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Premarket data (CoinDesk)

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Crypto World

BTC reverses early loss, rises above $72,000 on Middle East hopes

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Source: CoinDesk/TradingView

What appeared to be a down day in crypto markets has turned positive after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he told his cabinet to start negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible. This came after NBC News reported that President Trump had requested Netanyahu scale back bombing in Lebanon as it threatened Monday’s announced ceasefire.

Bitcoin quickly rose about 3% as the news hit, now trading at $72,300, up 2% over the past 24 hours. U.S. stocks also reversed modest early losses, with the Nasdaq now ahead 0.65%. Having surged to nearly $103 per barrel earlier in the day, WTI crude oil quickly pulled back to $98.60.

Bitcoin is notably outperforming other crypto majors, with ether (ETH), solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP) all higher by less than 1%.

Continued divergence with software stocks

Firmly linked at the hip in recent months, bitcoin and software stocks continued to diverge on Thursday. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) fell 4%, approaching a key support level around $76, a level it has tested and rebounded from multiple times.

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Over the past month, bitcoin is up 9%, while IGV is down 12%.

On a 20-day moving average basis, the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and IGV has dropped to a relatively low 0.34, reinforcing the recent divergence in their price movements.

Source: CoinDesk/TradingView

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North Korean Cyber Spies Are No Longer Just Remote Threats

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North Korean Cyber Spies Are No Longer Just Remote Threats

This month’s $285 million exploit on Drift, a decentralized exchange (DEX), was the largest crypto hack in over a year, when exchange Bybit lost $1.4 billion. North Korean state-backed hackers were named as prime suspects in both attacks.

This past autumn, attackers posed as a quantitative trading firm and approached Drift’s protocol team in person at a major crypto conference, said Drift in an X post Sunday.

“It is now understood that this appears to be a targeted approach, where individuals from this group continued to deliberately seek out and engage specific Drift contributors, in person, at multiple major industry conferences in multiple countries over the following six months,” said the DEX.

Until now, North Korean cyber spies have targeted crypto firms online, through virtual calls and remote work. An in-person approach at a conference would not typically raise suspicion, but the Drift exploit should be enough for attendees to review connections made at recent events.

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The hack cut Drift’s TVL by more than half in about 12 minutes. Source: DefiLlama

North Korea expands crypto playbook beyond hacks

Blockchain forensics firm TRM Labs described the incident as the largest DeFi hack of 2026 (so far) and the second-largest exploit in Solana’s history, just behind the $326 million Wormhole bridge hack in 2022.

The initial contact dates back about six months, but the exploit itself traces to mid-March, according to TRM. The attacker began by moving funds from Tornado Cash and deploying the CarbonVote Token (CVT), while using social engineering to persuade multisig signers to approve transactions that granted elevated permissions.

They then manufactured credibility for CVT by minting a large supply and inflating trading activity to simulate real demand. Drift’s oracles picked up the signal and treated the token as a legitimate asset.

When the pre-approved transactions were executed on April 1, CVT was accepted as collateral, withdrawal limits were increased and funds were withdrawn in real assets, including USDC.

TRM outlines funds moving from Tornado Cash in March used to prepare for the Drift exploit. Source: TRM Labs

Related: North Korean spy slips up, reveals ties in fake job interview

According to TRM, the speed and aggressiveness of the subsequent laundering exceeded that seen in the Bybit hack.

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North Korea is widely believed to be using large-scale crypto thefts such as the Drift and Bybit attacks alongside longer-term tactics, including placing operatives in remote roles at tech and crypto firms to generate steady income. The United Nations Security Council has said such funds are used to support the country’s weapons program.

Security researcher Taylor Monahan said infiltration of DeFi protocols dates back to “DeFi summer,” adding that around 40 protocols have had contact with suspected DPRK operatives.

North Korean state media reported Thursday that the country tested an electromagnetic weapon and a short-range ballistic missile, known as the Hwasong-11, fitted with cluster munition warheads.

Estimated dimensions for the KN-23, also known as the Hwasong-11A. Source: Christian Maire, FRS

Infiltration network fuels steady crypto revenue

A separate investigation revealed how a network of North Korea-linked IT workers generated millions through prolonged infiltration.

Data obtained from an anonymous source shared by ZachXBT showed the network posing as developers and embedding themselves across crypto and tech firms, generating roughly $1 million a month and more than $3.5 million since November.

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The group secured jobs using falsified identities, routed payments through a shared system, then converted funds to fiat and sent them to Chinese bank accounts via platforms such as Payoneer.

Wallet tracing linked part of the flow to addresses tied to known DPRK activity, the blockchain sleuth said. Source: ZachXBT

Related: Are you a freelancer? North Korean spies may be using you

The operation relied on basic infrastructure, including a shared website with a common password and internal leaderboards tracking earnings. 

The agents applied for roles in plain sight using VPNs and fabricated documents, pointing to a longer-term strategy of embedding operatives to extract steady revenue.

Defenses evolve as infiltration tactics spread

Cointelegraph encountered a similar scheme in a 2025 investigation led by Heiner García, who spent months in contact with a suspected operative.

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Cointelegraph later took part in García’s dummy interview with a suspect who went by “Motoki,” who claimed to be Japanese. The suspect rage quit the call after failing to introduce himself in his supposed native dialect.

The investigation found operatives bypassed geographic restrictions by using remote access to devices physically located in countries such as the US. Instead of VPNs, they operated those machines directly, making their activity appear local.

By now, tech headhunters have realized that the person at the other end of a virtual job interview may indeed be a North Korean cyber spy. A viral defence strategy is to ask suspects to insult Kim Jong Un. So far, the tactic has been effective.

A suspected North Korean IT worker freezes when asked to call Kim Jong Un a “fat, ugly pig.” Source: Tanuki42

However, as Drift was approached in person and García’s findings showed operatives finding creative methods to bypass geographic restrictions, North Korean actors have continued to adapt to the cat-and-mouse dynamic.

Requesting interviewees to call North Korea’s supreme leader a “fat pig” is an effective strategy for the time being, but security researchers warn that this won’t work forever.

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Magazine: Phantom Bitcoin checks, China tracks tax on blockchain: Asia Express