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Bitcoin breaks key support level as Glassnode warns of further price breakdown

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Bitcoin breaks key support level as Glassnode warns of further price breakdown

U.S. president Donald Trump’s surprise nomination of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair boosted the dollar, unwound the precious metals rally, and is bringing bitcoin below a key support level.

Onchain data shared by Glassnode shows bitcoin was consolidating just above key structural support around $83.4K, the lower bound of its short-term holder cost basis model.

A breakdown below that zone could open the door to a deeper slide toward $80.7K, the so-called True Market Mean.

That breakdown is occurring. Over the past 7-day period bitcoin lost more than 9.2% of its value and now trades at $81,200.

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The broader market, measured via the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, lost 12.4% of its value over that period. That has meant the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to “extreme fear” over the week.

Glassnode’s report notes that short-term holder supply held at a loss with BTC above that level remained at 19.5%, well below the 55% capitulation threshold, suggesting some resilience despite downside pressure. However, buyer conviction is being tested as price drifts lower.

On the derivatives side, funding rates remain muted, pointing to cautious speculative appetite. Options markets are pricing in greater demand for downside protection, with dealer gamma flipping negative below $90K. That increases the risk of volatility spikes if support breaks.

Taken together, the data paints a picture of a fragile but not yet broken market. Liquidity remains the key variable.

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The crypto market may currently be gripped by fear, but that could be a good signal.

According to crypto analytics platform Santiment, sentiment across various cryptocurrency communities has plunged to extreme lows, levels that have historically preceded price recoveries.

In a report, Santiment highlighted the rise in bearish commentary on social media as a rare bright spot in an otherwise downbeat environment.

“While network fundamentals are stagnant, crowd sentiment has hit extreme negativity levels,” the firm wrote. “Historically, this excessive bearishness is a strong contrarian indicator that a local bottom could be near.”

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While prices have been dropping throughout the last few months, long-term bitcoin holders are selling at the fastest pace since August. Crypto prices fell over the week, seemingly over the U.S. dollar’s decline reversing.

Some industry observers say the current mood may be short-lived, however.

Bitwise’s CIO Matt Hougan had recently joined CoinDesk’s Markets Outlook, where he said crypto is in the late stages of a bear-market bottom. Historically, crypto markets have tended to move in the opposite direction of the crowd, the report points out.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Eyes $90K As Whales Devour 20x Daily BTC Supply In Just 30 Days

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Bitcoin Eyes $90K As Whales Devour 20x Daily BTC Supply In Just 30 Days

Bitcoin (BTC) appears on track to hit $90,000 in the coming weeks as whales accumulated about 20 times the cryptocurrency’s daily new supply in the past weeks.

Key takeaways:

  • Whales bought roughly 270,000 BTC in the past 30 days.

  • BTC broke out of its symmetrical pattern setup with a measured target at around $92,220.

BTC whales accumulate at fastest pace since 2013

Whales, entities that hold over 1,000 BTC, have added roughly 270,000 coins to their wallets in the past 30 days, marking their largest buying spree since 2013, according to onchain data resource CryptoQuant.

Bitcoin spot average order size. Source: CryptoQuant

Part of that whale accumulation likely came from Strategy. The company’s recent filings show that it bought about 42,166 BTC between March and April, accounting for roughly 16% of the 270,000 BTC added by whale wallets over the same period.

US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded more than $200 million in net inflows during that stretch. Still, those inflows remain modest compared with earlier phases of the cycle, pointing to cautious re-engagement by Wall Street traders.

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US spot Bitcoin ETFs 30-day flows. Source: Glassnode

The accumulation came even as Bitcoin whipsawed sharply in recent weeks, including a roughly 15% drawdown before fully recovering those losses, with easing US–Iran tensions helping drive the rebound in risk appetite.

Related: Bitcoin traders cash out 63K BTC profit as price rallied above $76K: Will the market rebound?

BTC triangle setup hints at rebound to $90,000

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has entered the breakout stage of its prevailing symmetrical triangle pattern.

Triangle patterns can break in either direction regardless of the prevailing trend, with the resulting move often matching the formation’s maximum height.

In Bitcoin’s case, price has broken to the upside after moving above the triangle’s upper trendline, opening the door for a potential rally toward the measured target near $92,220 by April or May.

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BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s price must break decisively above its 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA, the blue line) at around $83,000 to reach the triangle target. This EMA was instrumental in limiting BTC’s attempts at an upside breakout in January.

Earlier, Nic Puckrin, crypto analyst and founder of Coin Bureau, said Bitcoin could push toward $90,000 if the current US–Iran ceasefire holds, oil prices fall toward $80, and softer economic data helps ease stagflation fears.