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Bitcoin (BTC) to face near-term pressure as liquidity tightens, according to Hilbert Group CIO

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Kraken's surprise Fed win may harken onslaught of crypto firms with narrow Fed access

Global liquidity is set to deteriorate sharply, according to Russell Thompson, chief investment officer at crypto asset manager Hilbert Group (HILB), who said even a quick geopolitical resolution in Iran is unlikely to sustain a rally in risk assets without policy support.

Liquidity conditions have stabilized in parts of the financial sector following the rollout of the reserve maturity program (RMP), Thompson said, but a broader tightening of 20%–25% is approaching, a significant drag that could leave bitcoin struggling in the near term.

“Even with a resolution quickly in Iran, I do not believe that risk assets will rally for any sustainable time without outside help,” Thompson said in the report published last week.

Thompson said he expects U.S. policymakers to respond. He pointed to likely measures including reform of the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR), a sizable drawdown of the Treasury General Account (TGA) without offsetting Federal Reserve bill issuance, and a series of rate cuts under a potential new Fed chair.

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The SLR is a banking regulation that sets how much capital large banks must hold against their total leverage. The TGA is the U.S. Treasury’s main cash account at the Federal Reserve.

When the Treasury draws down the TGA (spends money from it), liquidity is effectively injected into the financial system; when it builds the TGA, liquidity is drained.

Bitcoin’s performance over the past six months has been marked by sharp volatility, a clear shift from late-2025 exuberance to a more fragile, macro-driven market.

After hitting an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025, bitcoin entered a sustained drawdown through the end of the year and into early 2026. By February, prices had fallen to roughly $63,000, a decline of about 50% from the peak, amid a broader crypto market sell-off and tightening financial conditions. This period was characterized by weaker demand, exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows and a more risk-off macro backdrop, with BTC underperforming equities in some stretches.

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Bitcoin is currently trading around $75,600, leaving it significantly off its peak but no longer in freefall. The last six months, in short, have seen a full cycle: from peak euphoria, to a deep correction, to a tentative stabilization phase, with macro liquidity, policy expectations and investor positioning now the dominant drivers.

Advances in crypto regulation could also provide support. Thompson said he anticipates legal clarity on key measures before the summer recess and a faster-than-expected expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet as disinflationary pressures build.

Higher oil prices, he argued, could ultimately weigh on growth, while a softening labor market and emerging stress in private credit may add to the disinflationary backdrop.

Markets remain overly focused on the Federal Reserve as the primary source of liquidity, Thompson said, but the U.S. Treasury has significant capacity to inject funds into both the real economy and financial markets. With Treasury leadership experienced in deploying such tools, he expects a more proactive approach.

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The result: short-term pressure on bitcoin, but improving conditions over the medium term.

Thompson said he expects bitcoin to be “significantly higher” by year-end as liquidity dynamics evolve. Even in a more protracted scenario, he sees liquidity bottoming around 2027, a timeline that could coincide with fresh all-time highs.

Read more: U.S. crypto adoption is rebounding, bitcoin still dominates, Deutsche Bank says

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Crypto World

Ethereum Whale Opens $90M ETH Long Bet Amid 40% Price Rally Potential

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Cryptocurrencies, Ethereum, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Altcoin Watch, Ether Price, Ethereum Price, Ethereum ETF, ETF

An Ethereum whale has opened a significant long position on Ether (ETH) worth $90.8 million, in what looks like a bold bet that the upside is not over for the top altcoin.

Key takeaways:

  • Ethereum whale opened a leveraged long position totaling $90.8 million.

  • Ether price chart’s ascending triangle targets $3,230.

Top traders open new ETH long positions

Data from TradingView showed the ETH/USD pair trading at $2,280, or 32% higher than the $1,750 low reached on Feb. 6. 

Holding above $2,200, Ether offered some cause for optimism ahead of key volatility triggers.

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“Strong retail sales could push yields higher and delay Fed cuts, while weak data would fuel risk-on bets,” analyst AlphaBTC said in a Monday post on X, referring to the main macro drivers this week, adding:

“Fed commentary and PMI data add growth signals, while geopolitical risks remain the wildcard catalyst for sudden volatility.”

As market participants waited for the next catalysts, attention has shifted to a trader with an impressive track record, who has opened a long position worth about $90.8 million in ETH, with 20x leverage.

Cryptocurrencies, Ethereum, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Altcoin Watch, Ether Price, Ethereum Price, Ethereum ETF, ETF
Source: X/Ash Crypto

Analyst TAnotepad noted that another whale, 0x6C851, has opened a $61 million ETH long position at 20x leverage with entry around $2,303 on HyperLiquid.

Cryptocurrencies, Ethereum, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Altcoin Watch, Ether Price, Ethereum Price, Ethereum ETF, ETF
ETH whale position on HyperLiquid. Source: TAnotepad

These moves coincide with continued flows into spot Ethereum ETFs, which have recorded net inflows for seven consecutive days, totaling $426 million. 

Spot ETH flows chart. Source: SoSoValue

Meanwhile, global Ethereum investment products recorded $328 million in inflows during the week ending April 17.

This reinforces the narrative that whales and institutions view the recent ETH price rebound above $2,400 as a promising move that could open the way toward $3,000.

Ether’s ascending triangle targets $3,200 ETH price 

Ether’s price action has formed a classic ascending triangle on the daily chart, as shown below. 

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The pattern will resolve once the ETH/USD pair breaks above the triangle’s resistance line at $2,400. If this happens, the price could rise by as much as the maximum distance between the triangle’s trend lines.

That puts Ether’s breakout target at about $3,230, up by more than 41% from current price levels.

ETH/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The relative strength index has increased to 54, from oversold conditions at 18 on Feb. 6, suggesting increasing upward momentum.

However, the breakout could be curtailed by resistance from the $2,350-$2,500 resistance zone, marked by the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA).

Above that, the next major hurdle is the 200-day EMA at $2,640.

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Zooming out, analyst Micro2Macr0 said that a breakout from a multi-year ascending triangle could lead to a 60%-%100% ETH price rally. 

ETH/USD weekly chart. Source: X/Micro2Macr0 

As Cointelegraph reported, ETH price closing above $2,400 resistance, puts it on the path for a recovery toward $2,800, then to $3,050 over the next few days or weeks.