Bitcoin (BTC) is starting the third week of September below key weekly support levels as traders eye volatility cues.

• The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday amid stubborn inflation and a mounting oil-price squeeze.
• The Senate will vote on whether to advance the crypto CLARITY Act on Tuesday — a key moment for market sentiment.
• Bitcoin finished last week below its 50-week moving average near $77,400, although a bullish RSI divergence continues to play out.

Fed’s Warsh seen hiking rates despite Trump pressure

The Federal Reserve takes the spotlight for risk-asset traders this week as Wednesday’s decision on interest rates dictates the mood.

On the back of high inflation and cautious words from chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed is widely expected to hike benchmark rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4% despite several dissenting officials in favor of holding them at current levels. The setup echoes that of the Fed’s July rate decision, when Warsh held rates while several voices argued for a hike.  Now, Warsh faces pressure from US president Donald Trump not only to avoid a hike but to enact rate cuts.

The latest data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds of rates staying at their current levels at just 13.3% at the time of writing. A week ago, the implied probability of a rate pause was above 40%, but it pulled back in the face of recent inflation data and oil-price gains from escalation in the Middle East.

Fed target rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

While the August print of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both avoided major upside surprises, markets reacted hawkishly as oil prices returned above $100 per barrel with no end to the supply crisis in sight.

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter warned of the severity of the resulting energy shock, as 30 million barrels per day will be unable to transit through the Strait of Hormuz or Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, with the Bab el-Mandeb Strait now also at risk.

“Even after accounting for some overlap between these routes, the scale of the potential disruption is enormous relative to the ~100 million barrel per day global oil market,” it wrote in a post on X.

Kobeissi noted increasing inflation expectations among US consumers, who saw price increases hitting 4.6% over the coming year — 1.1% more than their outlook at the start of 2026 — with gas prices and trade tariffs frequently referenced.

US consumer inflation expectations data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X.com

CLARITY Act rewrite faces crucial vote

On Tuesday, a day prior to the Fed decision, crypto markets will face their own reckoning as US officials debate the CLARITY Act.

On Monday, Senate Republicans released what they called their “last, best and final offer” for the text of the Act, part of bipartisan negotiations that seek to provide the industry with a clear legal framework in the US.

“After a year of intense daily bipartisan negotiations, this bill is ready,” Senator Cynthia Lummis, who released the 635-page updated proposal, said in an official release. 

“President Trump voluntarily agreed to unprecedented ethics restrictions, holding every federally elected official, judge, and their spouses to some of the toughest ethics restrictions in US history.”

CLARITY now faces a procedural vote at 2:15 pm on Tuesday, requiring 60 votes to pass. Snap volatility could ensue on the back of the result. If the bill passes in its latest form, it can advance to the floor for Senate debate.

“A no vote on Tuesday means opposing real ethics reforms on politicians’ personal investments, handing American leadership in digital assets to our foreign competitors, and leaving Americans with zero protections in the digital asset markets,” Lummis added.

Speaking to podcast host Kyle Chasse on Saturday, crypto policy insider Tyler Williams, formerly a crypto adviser to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, was upbeat about Tuesday’s prospects.

“What are the odds? I think they are better than they have ever been. We are closer — we are on the precipice of this becoming law,” he said. 

Among Polymarket users, the odds of CLARITY being signed into law in 2026 remain low. At the time of writing, there was a mere 34% chance of that outcome. Higher odds were last seen at the start of August.

Betting odds for CLARITY Act passing into law. Source: Polymarket

Crypto traders de-risk in advance of CLARITY, Fed

The latest market analysis indicates that traders are removing risk prior to Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s headline events.

Examining changes in open interest (OI) across exchanges, crypto sentiment platform Santiment argued that markets are already prepared for volatility ahead of both the CLARITY Act vote and Fed interest-rate announcement.

“Everyone is watching Tuesday’s cloture vote and Wednesday’s Fed. The positioning data says the market already made its move,” it commented on Monday.

Santiment data shows that OI in BTC terms, calculated from USD-denominated OI divided by the BTC price, fell 13.5% in the week through Sept. 11, from 321,497 BTC to 278,151 BTC, subsequently rebounding only modestly. At the same time, spot price itself fell by 5%.

“Positioning sits about 20% below where it was before the mid-August rally,” Santiment added.

Bitcoin OI data. Source: Santiment

Funding rates repeat bullish trends

Funding rates continue to build bullish sentiment as BTC/USD trades near $80,000, new research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant argues.

Since the end of May, aggregate funding rates across exchanges have gradually increased, following the end of a negative-rate period that began in early March. Funding rates reflect the balance of long and short interest among traders.

“After a disbelief phase, during which funding rates reflected one of the most bearish sentiments ever seen in Binance derivatives, the buildup of shorts that followed a -52% drawdown ended up fueling May’s rally,” CryptoQuant commented in a blog post on Sunday. 

“It’s particularly interesting to observe how this bearish consensus has consistently shown up whenever Bitcoin was nearing the end of a correction.”

CryptoQuant data shows that negative cumulative 30-day funding rates on Binance have accompanied the final stages of Bitcoin bear markets, as well as major corrections within bull markets.

Bitcoin 30-day summed funding rates (Binance). Source: CryptoQuant

Previously, Cointelegraph reported on the ongoing lack of spot-market participation in Bitcoin’s recent upside, with analysis warning that the derivatives-led market momentum was unlikely to last.

Bitcoin weekly support slips from bulls’ grasp

Bitcoin’s price failed to defend a key support level during Sunday’s weekly close, ending around $76,800.

Related: Here’s what happened in crypto today

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In comments on Sunday, trader and analyst Rekt Capital reiterated that $78,300 was necessary to hold at the weekly close. Failure to do so, he warned, would open the path for Bitcoin to repeat its failed breakout from early May.

An accompanying chart shows BTC/USD continuing to form a pattern of lower highs, keeping the long-term bear-market structure intact.

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com

Bitcoin also closed below its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,380, a trend line necessary to clear as part of a sustainable bullish trend change. Rekt Capital eyed the 21-week EMA at $72,270 as bulls’ next line in the sand.

“Both of these EMAs tend to act as support in a Bull Market. So if they can’t hold sustainably as support then that would be a confirmation of the trend not being in a full-blown Bull Cycle yet,” he told X followers.

The close nonetheless preserved a weekly bullish divergence on Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI), which continues to see higher lows through 2026.

BTC/USD one-week chart with 21, 50 EMA; RSI. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BNK Investment & Securities has signed a strategic agreement with cultural-finance fintech EverTreasure to develop fractional investment and tokenized securities products tied to films, performances, musicals and artworks.

South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported on Sept. 14 that the two companies entered a memorandum of understanding covering the development, issuance and distribution of investment products backed by cultural content, with responsibilities divided between the brokerage and EverTreasure.

BNK Investment & Securities will handle the arrangement and distribution of tokenized securities, investor recruitment and advice on compliance with applicable regulations. EverTreasure will identify underlying assets, connect blockchain technology to the products and operate the supporting platform.

The companies plan to work together on due diligence for underlying assets and product structures before potential offerings reach investors. Their cooperation will extend to securing listings on distribution platforms and conducting joint marketing and investor relations activities for institutional investors and high-net-worth clients.

Overseas expansion is part of the agreement, with the companies planning to use their international entities and networks to pursue opportunities outside South Korea.

BNK tokenized securities plan targets cultural assets

The agreement gives BNK Investment & Securities another route into tokenized securities as South Korea prepares to put a formal legal and market structure around blockchain-based financial products.

Cultural assets identified under the partnership include films, performances, musicals and artworks. EverTreasure will be responsible for sourcing competitive assets that could form the basis of fractional or tokenized investment products, while BNK Investment & Securities will provide the securities-market infrastructure needed to bring eligible products to investors.

BNK Investment & Securities CEO Shin Myung-ho described the agreement as a starting point for connecting the value of different types of cultural content with financial products.

“This agreement is a meaningful starting point for providing investors with new investment opportunities by connecting the value of various cultural content with finance,” Shin said.

The brokerage plans to continue finding tokenized securities opportunities backed by competitive real-world assets and gradually expand the financial products and services it offers in the sector, according to the report.

BNK Investment & Securities has already been preparing infrastructure for this market. The brokerage is among the securities companies participating in Koscom’s joint tokenized-securities issuance platform project, which is being developed as financial firms prepare for South Korea’s new regulatory system.

The timing puts the EverTreasure partnership months before South Korea begins the first phase of its tokenized securities rollout in February 2027.

Crypto.news previously reported that the first phase will cover selected privately placed money market funds and bonds, unlisted stocks issued through trust structures and publicly offered fractional investment securities. The planned scope will later extend to other publicly offered securities.

EverTreasure brings YEATU fractional investment platform

EverTreasure is expected to contribute experience developed through YEATU, its fractional investment platform for art and cultural content.

The platform connects investors with projects involving artworks, performances, films and exhibitions. EverTreasure plans to use the content intellectual property sourcing capabilities and investor network built through YEATU to identify products for the BNK partnership.

YEATU says it has handled more than 260 million won in investments as of Dec. 31, 2025, with more than 10,000 members and 6,000 global investors registered on the platform. Its investment offerings cover cultural projects that can generate returns through structures established for individual assets or projects.

For institutional and professional investors, the company provides selected projects involving films, concerts, musicals and fine art. Its process can include due diligence, investment documentation, contract negotiations and monitoring after an investment has been made.

EverTreasure was founded in 2023 and has developed operations around cultural content, valuation and blockchain-based authentication. Its work with BNK will concentrate on finding suitable underlying assets and connecting them with the technical systems required for tokenized products.

The agreement gives both companies defined roles before a product reaches the distribution stage. Asset sourcing and blockchain integration will sit primarily with EverTreasure, while BNK will handle securities issuance arrangements, distribution and investor-facing functions within its regulated business.

South Korea is preparing tokenized securities for 2027

The partnership comes as South Korea moves from limited fractional investment structures toward a regulated market that can accommodate tokenized versions of conventional securities.

The National Assembly passed amendments to the Electronic Securities Act and Capital Markets Act in January 2026, creating the legal basis for securities ownership and issuance information to be recorded through distributed ledger technology.

South Korea has since set Feb. 4, 2027, as the effective date for the framework. The Financial Services Commission released a three-stage roadmap in September under which existing licensed financial companies can handle tokenized securities within the scope of their licenses.

The rules are particularly relevant to fractional investment businesses because investment-contract securities and fractional products will be incorporated into regulated issuance and distribution channels.

Regulators had spent months preparing the operating details. In May, the FSC was working on detailed tokenized securities rules covering issuance, trading, settlement and investor protection before the legal changes take effect.

Market infrastructure is being built at the same time. Samsung SDS won a contract to develop the Korea Securities Depository’s token securities platform, with the system expected to connect distributed-ledger records with the depository’s existing electronic securities infrastructure.

Planned functions include issuance records, circulation checks, rights management and real-time monitoring of token volumes. Completion is expected around the time the amended laws take effect in February.

Korean brokerages build tokenization infrastructure

Securities firms have started preparing their own systems and partnerships before the regulatory framework becomes operational.

Hanwha Investment & Securities recently completed a tokenized securities platform supporting Avalanche and Hyperledger Besu, according to a Sept. 7 report. Development began with blockchain technology company FairSquare Lab in 2025.

Hanwha has backed its infrastructure work with investments in companies operating across tokenization and blockchain markets. The brokerage holds a stake in Securitize and disclosed a 30 billion won investment in Digital Asset, the operator of the institutional-focused Canton Network, in July.

BNK Investment & Securities has taken a partnership-led approach as part of its preparations. In 2024, it signed an agreement with Koscom to cooperate on tokenized-securities platform development, joining brokerages including Kiwoom Securities, Daishin Securities, IBK Investment & Securities and Yuanta Securities that had entered similar arrangements with the financial technology company.

The EverTreasure agreement extends that work into the asset and product side of the market, with cultural intellectual property and other content forming the pool from which potential fractional and tokenized securities products can be developed.

Shin said BNK Investment & Securities intends to continue identifying tokenized-securities businesses using competitive real-world assets and expand its related financial products and services.

Closing the AI gap

EUR/USD sits near 1.1610, just off a one-month low, as tomorrow’s Fed decision looms as the week’s true catalyst. The ECB delivered its second hike of the year on September 10, lifting the deposit rate to 2.50% and warning that Middle East-driven inflation pressures will keep price growth well above target for an extended period. Lagarde called the move a “no-brainer”, yet the euro barely reacted; the hike had been fully priced in, and markets are already pricing more ECB tightening than the central bank’s own projections suggest is needed.

The real action lies across the Atlantic. Thursday’s hotter-than-expected US CPI print pushed September Fed hike odds sharply higher, from 67% to 88% intraday, though the dollar has struggled to fully capitalise as falling oil prices pull Treasury yields back from three-year highs near 4.99%. Adding political noise, President Trump has reportedly pressed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh directly on rate cuts, a claim Trump himself has downplayed, just as the Fed enters its blackout period ahead of Tuesday’s meeting.

The result: an ECB that has already delivered its hawkish surprise with muted market impact, against a Fed whose next move, and its independence from political pressure, could prove far more consequential for EUR/USD heading into Wednesday.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD

As the EUR/USD chart shows, the pair has recently broken below the ascending trendline that had guided the entire late-July recovery, a genuine shift in structure, and has now also lost the 200-period EMA and the 0.382 Fibonacci confluence near 1.1580, both of which had served as reliable support during the advance. Price is currently testing the 0.5 retracement near 1.1533, a key level in its own right.

Bullish Scenario

Should buyers reclaim the 0.5 support and stage a recovery, the first real test becomes the confluence of the 200-period EMA and the 0.382 retracement near 1.1580, now flipped into resistance. A confirmed break back above that zone would open the path towards retesting the broken ascending trendline, which itself converges near the last resistance on the chart.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, a decisive break below the 0.5 retracement would confirm the bearish structure taking hold, exposing the 0.618 level near 1.1490, precisely where the broken descending trendline now sits as a potential resistance-turned-support test on the way down. A failure to hold there would risk a deeper slide towards the 0.786 retracement near 1.1430.

With price having just lost both its ascending trendline and the 200-period EMA in quick succession, EUR/USD’s next move looks set to determine whether Wednesday’s Fed decision accelerates this correction, or gives buyers a reason to defend the 0.5 support first.

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