Crypto World
Bitcoin Could Drop to $45K by Late 2026, Analyst Warns Using Historical Halving Cycle Data
TLDR:
- Bitcoin historical halving cycles show 363-406 day pattern from ATH to bottom across 2012, 2016, and 2020
- October-November 2026 identified as highest probability window for cycle bottom based on time analysis
- Ultimate price target ranges between $45,000-$50,000 with current accumulation starting at $60,000 zone
- NUPL on-chain indicator has not yet reached capitulation levels seen in previous 2018 and 2022 bottoms
A cryptocurrency analyst has shared a detailed thesis suggesting Bitcoin could continue declining throughout 2026.
The prediction relies on historical halving cycle data spanning over a decade. Analyst, Wimar. X tracks both temporal and price-based metrics.
This approach differs from the conventional price-only analysis that many traders employ. The forecast anticipates a cycle bottom occurring between October and November 2026.
Time-Based Analysis Points to Late 2026 Bottom
The analyst’s methodology centers on measuring days from all-time highs to cycle lows following Bitcoin halvings. Historical data shows the 2012 cycle took 406 days to reach bottom.
The 2016 cycle required 363 days for the same journey. Meanwhile, the 2020 cycle saw 376 days pass before hitting its lowest point. These numbers cluster within a narrow range, creating a predictable pattern.
Building on this consistency, the current cycle projects a similar timeline. The analyst calculates October through November 2026 as the highest probability window for the next major bottom.
This time-focused strategy removes emotional decision-making from the equation. According to the post, buying during this window will occur regardless of price levels.
The analyst emphasizes that most market participants miss optimal entry points. They focus exclusively on price action while ignoring temporal patterns.
This narrow view leads to missed opportunities when historical windows align. The time-based approach aims to prevent getting “front run” by market movements.
Wimar.X stated that execution of daily purchases worth $500,000 begins when either time or price conditions trigger.
The commitment to this strategy remains firm despite market volatility. Past predictions have already materialized, including the recent drop into the $60,000 range.
Price Targets and On-Chain Indicators Signal Further Downside
The price component of the analysis sets $60,000 as an initial accumulation zone. The analyst began purchasing Bitcoin after prices entered this territory.
However, waiting for perfect price levels can result in missing entire market moves. This pragmatic approach balances patience with opportunistic buying.
A lower price target sits between $45,000 and $50,000 by year-end 2026. This range represents the analyst’s “ultimate bottom target” for aggressive accumulation.
The prediction acknowledges the current risk of lower lows materializing. Market conditions remain uncertain, but historical precedent guides the strategy.
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss serves as the third analytical pillar. This on-chain metric successfully identified cycle bottoms in 2018, during the COVID crash, and in 2022.
Current readings show the market has not yet reached the capitulation zone. The NUPL indicator historically appears in a specific blue zone during major bottoms.
The analyst’s experience dates back to 2016, providing perspective through multiple market cycles. Prior predictions, including calls made when Bitcoin traded near $114,000, have proven accurate.
The framework combines quantitative analysis with disciplined execution across both time and price dimensions.
Arkham’s data shows that their PnL on bitcoin has risen to $1.8 billion.
The Winklevoss twins, who have been predominantly vocal about Zcash and Cypherpunk lately, have made a large BTC transfer to the cryptocurrency exchange they co-founded a decade ago.
According to data from the analytics company Arkham, the $130 million transfer to Gemini’s hot wallets was done “presumably to sell.”
THE WINKLEVOSS TWINS SOLD $130M BTC
The Winklevoss Twins transferred $130M of BTC to Gemini Hot Wallets since last week, presumably to sell.
The Winklevosses once owned 1% of the circulating BTC supply – and now continue to hold $764M of BTC. Their total PnL on BTC is currently… pic.twitter.com/Pjzp45V3K7
— Arkham (@arkham) March 10, 2026
Their data further indicates that the brothers once owned roughly 1% of bitcoin’s supply. Previous reports suggested that they began buying BTC in 2011, purchasing $11 million in the cryptocurrency at $120 per unit from the $65 million they were awarded in cash and Facebook stock following a legal dispute with Mark Zuckerberg.
Although they reportedly sold a portion of their holdings to launch Gemini, their estimated PnL on bitcoin remains around $1.8 billion, Arkham added.
They have made several newsworthy donations over the years, including multi-million-dollar transfers of BTC to Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign on the promise that he was pro-bitcoin, pro-crypto, and pro-business.
While championing for more privacy in the cryptocurrency industry, their focus has most recently switched toward Cypherpunk – a company dedicated to self-sovereignty.
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In the initial statement, the brothers said they will “execute on our mission by accumulating, building, and supporting privacy-protecting assets and technologies at a time when the world needs them more than ever.”
The latest press release shared by the company reads that Cypherpunk Technologies has invested $5 million into Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL), which is its first tech investment outside of ZEC.
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US lawmakers have launched an investigation into several Wall Street underwriters, including Dominari Securities, whose parent company is linked to the Trump family, over their role in bringing Chinese companies to US stock markets that were later tied to stock manipulation schemes.
On Monday, the House of Representatives Select Committee on China, chaired by Representative John Moolenaar with Rep. Ro Khanna as ranking member, sent letters to three US companies — D. Boral Capital, Dominari Securities and Revere Securities — seeking information about Chinese initial public offerings (IPOs) they helped underwrite.
“These scam centers defraud American households through coordinated “ramp-and-dump” stock manipulation schemes involving Chinese shell companies listed on American exchanges, which your firm appears to facilitate,” the lawmakers wrote.
The Chinese companies allegedly used US IPOs to inflate their share prices through coordinated trading and promotion, then dumped shares on retail investors before the stocks crashed. In some cases, dozens of accounts allegedly placed nearly identical buy orders above the IPO price, temporarily pushing valuations higher before insiders sold their stakes.
Related: Trump Sends Pro-Bitcoin Fed Chair Nomination to the Senate
Chinese stock schemes drain billions from investors
The lawmakers cited estimates that around $16 billion in US investor wealth has been drained since 2023 through such schemes. They also pointed to FBI data showing a 300% increase in complaints tied to Chinese stock manipulation cases.
The inquiry seeks documentation from the underwriters, including communications, trading records, funding sources and due diligence policies related to Chinese IPOs.
The committee said it is examining whether US financial intermediaries may have inadvertently helped facilitate manipulation schemes tied to Chinese issuers. The firms have been asked to submit the requested documents by Friday.
Related: Trump’s Media Company Closes $105M Crypto.com Deal
Dominari draws scrutiny in Chinese stock probe
One of the brokerage firms named in the probe is Dominari, which has ties to the Trump family. Located in New York’s Trump Tower, it is owned by Dominari Holdings, where Eric Trump, son of US President Donald Trump, is the fourth-largest shareholder. Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. joined the company’s advisory board in February 2025.
Last year, Dominari helped facilitate fundraising for Thumzup, a public company that adopted a Bitcoin (BTC) treasury strategy and also attracted millions of dollars in investment from Donald Trump Jr.
Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author
Bitcoin’s recent dip triggered heavy trading activity, with nearly 600,000 BTC changing hands in the $60,000–$70,000 range, according to blockchain data tracked by Glassnode.
In other words, traders went bargain hunting, snapping up nearly 600,000 BTC ($42.48 billion) in this price band during the correction. Of these, more than 200,000 BTC were accumulated in the past two weeks alone.
Note that at the start of the year, roughly 997,000 BTC had last moved within the $60,000–$70,000 range. Since bitcoin’s recent drop below $70,000, that number has jumped to 1.558 million BTC.
Taken together, it means that nearly 8% of the circulating supply is owned by people who bought their bitcoin in this range, creating a dense cluster of ownership. As such, the $60,000–$70,000 range could act as an important support level going forward.
At press time, bitcoin changed hands above $70,000, trading at levels, which have previously seen thin trading activity. CoinDesk Research has previously highlighted the “air gap” between $70,000 and $80,000, a range where relatively little supply changed hands.
Still, the market is at a point where things could spice up, because analysis by Checkonchain shows that around 40% of bitcoin holders have paid more than $70,000 for their coins.
- Legal injunction halts South Korean delistings of FLOW cryptocurrency.
- Altcoin rotation supports FLOW’s surge, outperforming broader crypto markets.
- Momentum indicators show FLOW in the overbought region, hinting at a possible pullback.
FLOW, the native token of the Flow blockchain, has seen a dramatic surge today, climbing over 53% in just 24 hours.
The jump comes despite recent announcements that major South Korean exchanges, including Upbit and Bithumb, planned to delist the token.
At first glance, delisting news might seem like a bearish trigger, but in FLOW’s case, the market response has been the opposite.
Here’s why the FLOW price is rising
The primary reason behind the surge is a legal move to suspend the delistings.
The Flow Foundation filed an injunction with the Seoul Central District Court to halt the planned March 16 delistings.
This move has reassured investors that the token will remain accessible on major South Korean platforms, removing a significant risk that had weighed on FLOW’s price for months.
In addition, Binance recently removed its monitoring tag for FLOW, signalling that previous technical issues have been resolved.
Together, these developments have alleviated fears about liquidity and safety, prompting a rush of capital back into the token.
Trading volumes have also spiked dramatically, indicating that both domestic and international traders are jumping in on the momentum.
Altcoin rotation strengthens the bullish momentum
Beyond the legal developments, FLOW’s rally has also benefited from a broader market trend.
Capital is currently rotating into altcoins, with investors seeking opportunities outside Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
This environment has amplified FLOW’s gains, as traders are looking for tokens with high growth potential and positive news catalysts.
FLOW’s performance today illustrates how market psychology and sector-wide trends can interact.
Even though BTC and the broader market have seen modest gains, FLOW’s price movement is clearly outpacing them due to its specific news-driven momentum.
This demonstrates how individual altcoins can decouple from broader market trends when there is a strong, token-specific catalyst.
FLOW price forecast
The pending court decision will remain the primary catalyst, as a favourable ruling could sustain momentum, while a rejection could trigger a swift correction.
Looking ahead, the immediate support is around $0.0481, which has acted as a pivot during the surge.
Holding above this level suggests that buyers remain in control and that the rally could continue toward the $0.07 area.
However, FLOW is currently in overbought territory, with momentum indicators like the RSI suggesting that a short-term pullback is possible.
If the price falls below the pivot, the token could retrace toward the 50-day moving average near $0.04743.
Crypto World
Stablecoin market expands, BTC price rallies as Iran war panic cools: Crypto Daybook Americas
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The stablecoin market is expanding again, led by USDC, and bitcoin’s rally is gathering steam.
The panic over the Iran war has cooled in the past 24 hours after President Donald Trump said the conflict could be over soon. The result: Bitcoin, which held resilient through the turmoil, has rallied past $70,000, up over 4%. The CoinDesk 20 Index, ether (ETH), solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP) are up 3% to 5%, and smaller coins like HYPE, ZEC, and RENDER rallying 7% to 11%.
The market capitalization of USDC, the second-largest dollar-pegged cryptocurrency, is fast closing on the record high of $78.6 billion, extending a recovery from the late-January low of $70.9 billion. Stablecoin leader USDT’s supply has risen to $184 billion from the late-February low of $183.5 billion.
This upswing in supply of top coins pegged to the U.S. dollar indicates the dry powder sitting on the sidelines is increasing and could be deployed to fund new crypto purchases as the rally extends. ETF inflows are supportive of a continued bullish trend as well.
Some indicators, however, still call for caution. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the gap between bitcoin prices on the Nasdaq-listed Coinbase (COIN) exchange and offshore giant Binance, remains negative, a sign that demand from U.S. investors is still lagging. Historically, bull runs have seen sustained Coinbase premiums.
In traditional markets, oil has fallen back below $100, which supports continued stability in all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The dollar index and Treasury yields have also pulled back from recent highs. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- Macro
- March 10, 9:00 a.m.: U.S. existing home sales for February est. 3.9M (Prev. 3.91M)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Governance votes & calls
- Aavegotchi DAO is conducting ballot 1and 2 of a multi-sig signer election, asking token holders to choose one signer from various nominees. Voting ends March 10.
- Ssv.network DAO is voting to cancel DIP-46 and reallocate the originally approved $15 million development budget, splitting it into $14.9 million for DVT and $100,000 as a retroactive research grant. Voting ends March 10.
- Realtoken Ecosystem Governance DAO is voting to temporarily pause interest rates on the RMM (Real Estate Monetary Fund) to zero for 15 days. Voting ends March 10.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 2.56% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $70,734.01 (24hrs: +4.60%)
- ETH is up 1.68% at $2,061.24 (24hrs: +3.38%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 2.02% at 2,015.27 (24hrs: +4.08%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 17 bps at 2.81%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0024% (2.6105% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 98.84
- Gold futures are up 2.02% at $5,194.10
- Silver futures are up 6.50% at $89.50
- Nikkei 225 closed up 2.88% at 54,248.39
- Hang Seng closed up 2.17% at 25,959.90
- FTSE 100 is up 1.84% at 10,437.86
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 2.94% at 5,852.45
- DJIA closed on Monday up 0.50% at 47,740.80
- S&P 500 closed up 0.83% at 6,795.99
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.38% at 22,695.95
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.32% at 33,189.30
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.61% at 3.532,70
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.14%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,823.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 25,100.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are unchanged at 47,948.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.53% (0.77%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02905 (-0.27%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,008 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $31.06
- Total fees: 2.52 BTC / $171,578
- CME Futures Open Interest: 103,205 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 13.7 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.76%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows SOL’s daily price action in candlestick format since August last year.
- The token is again trapped in a back-and-forth trading range, this time between $75 and $90, mimicking the October and December-January pattern.
- The next move depends on the direction in which the range is ultimately resolved. A bullish resolution could bring a quick-fire rally above $100, while a breakdown would suggest continuation of the broader bearish trend.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $199.79 (+1.30%), +3.46% at $206.70 in pre-market
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $111.84 (+9.74%), +2.18% at $114.28
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.50 (+4.57%), +3.09% at $22.16
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.66 (+8.11%), +2.31% at $8.86
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.70 (+3.78%), +2.52% at $15.07
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.16 (+2.02%), +1.45% at $15.38
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.61 (+4.34%), +2.29% at $9.83
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.83 (-0.64%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $37.33 (+3.49%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.06 (+3.15%), +1.14% at $36.47
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $138.95 (+4.06%), +3.25% at $143.46
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $8.51 (-2.18%), +4.58% at $8.90
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.60 (+3.26%), +1.71% at $7.73
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.97 (+7.78%), +6.19% at $1.03
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.20 (+5.26%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $167.1 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.52 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.28 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$51.3 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.61 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 5.73 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
Crypto World
Massive leveraged bets show crypto traders are convinced this week’s rally is the real deal
Crypto traders on the perpetuals exchange Hyperliquid are placing increasingly aggressive leveraged bets that bitcoin will break above $75,000 after a sharp rally at the start of the week.
Bitcoin climbed to around $71,000 on Tuesday, up from roughly $65,000 when BTC futures opened on Sunday evening. The move has reignited calls for a retest of recent highs after being rejected near $74,000 last week.
Onchain data shows several large traders — often referred to as “whales” — opening highly leveraged long positions on Hyperliquid as prices rise.
One trader is holding ether (ETH) and bitcoin long positions worth $194 million with unrealized profit and loss standing at around $6.5 million. Another account has $103 million worth of long positions across a multitude of trading pairs, betting on a broader crypto breakout as opposed to a major-dominated rally.
Positions on Hyperliquid are typically opened with leverage, allowing traders to amplify exposure. One wallet, for example, opened a series of trades using 20x leverage, meaning a $1 million account could control a $20 million bitcoin position. This trader opened 20x leveraged longs on 600 BTC worth about $42.5 million while simultaneously taking a 20x long position on 20,000 ETH valued at roughly $41.2 million.
The whale also appears to be accumulating ether in spot markets. Data shows the address spent $21 million in USDC to purchase 10,158 ETH at an average price of $2,067 shortly before opening the derivatives positions.
Other nine-figure long positions demonstrate one thing: Crypto traders are confident this breakout will stick and won’t be a bull trap like last week.
A separate wallet, 0x985f, is taking a different macro stance. The address deposited $9.5 million in USDC into Hyperliquid within a five-hour window before opening 20x leveraged short positions on oil futures, including roughly $8.17 million in crude oil (CL) contracts and $6.15 million in Brent oil.
The same trader also opened short positions across several crypto tokens, including HYPE, PUMP, XPL, APT and ASTER, suggesting a broader bearish stance on select altcoins while large traders concentrate bullish bets on bitcoin and ether.
The positioning highlights how decentralized derivatives platforms such as Hyperliquid have become a hub for large leveraged bets during periods of strong bitcoin momentum.
A break above $75,000 could force short sellers to cover and accelerate the rally, while a move lower would quickly test the conviction of traders piling into nine-figure leveraged longs.
Gas prices at a Shell Station located on Foothill Blvd.
Robert Gauthier | Los Angeles Times | Getty Images
Rising oil prices may not just be a headwind to President Donald Trump’s fight to lower inflation. They could also undermine his signature legislative achievement.
Almost all of the economic effect of the individual tax cuts in the “big beautiful bill” — from both smaller withholdings and sweetened tax refunds — could be erased if oil prices remain elevated by more than $20 compared to before the U.S.-Iran war, according to Raymond James.
“With the $25 move last week, if the oil price stays here, it essentially offsets the fiscal benefit from the OBBA,” wrote strategist Tavis McCourt in a note.
McCourt’s analysis relies on applying any increase in oil market prices to the more than $420 billion that consumers spent on gasoline in the fourth quarter of 2025. He told CNBC in an interview he accounted for both potential reduced demand due to higher prices and companies’ needs to pad margins in his calculations.
That leads him to conclude a $20 move in oil prices could mean consumers spending $150 billion more at the pump. The Tax Foundation estimates that the big beautiful bill’s individual tax cuts total $129 billion for 2025, with the overwhelming majority of it set to appear through tax refunds this filing season.
U.S. oil before the war on Feb. 27 closed at $67.02. As of Tuesday morning, after a major whiplash in prices on Monday, oil is still trading more than $20 a barrel higher at $88.20.
@CL.1 since Feb. 27 chart.
Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, said in a Monday interview her estimations for the hit consumers could take with elevated oil prices are also similar to the elevated spending she projected from the tax law. Though Wolfe in a Tuesday note said oil prices would need to remain above $100 for some time for that to happen.
“In all these scenarios, it has to last longer than it is now,” Roth said. “The impact on gas prices so far has been short-lived, and modest compared to how it may ultimately play out.”
But it will take time for oil prices to come down even if an end to the war in Iran arrives, which Trump said in an interview with a CBS News reporter on Monday is “very complete,” didn’t give a timeline for the war’s end in a press conference that followed.
McCourt noted it took about six months for oil prices to get back to levels where they were before surges higher after the Gulf War in 1990 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Consequences of weaker stimulus
Fiscal stimulus from the tax law was expected to boost the economy in 2026, with some economists predicting a reacceleration of U.S. growth partially thanks to it.
Now, an oil price shock is hitting right as consumers are set to get those tax refunds. Citadel Securities last week estimated that only 30% of refunds had been distributed by March 1, with the figure expected to rise to around 75% by May 1.
“The bottom line is that if we were expecting those tax refunds to lift consumer spending, these higher oil prices are just redirecting all that cash toward energy costs,” wrote Gabriel Shahin, CEO of Falcon Wealth Planning, in an email to CNBC. “It’s essentially voiding out the economic boost we were set to see.”
But Dan Niles, portfolio manager at Niles Investment Management, framed the situation as the refunds helping the economy weather higher oil prices.
He already has faith consumers can do that, pointing back to when oil hit similar prices in 2022 and 2023, all while Wall Street broadly predicted a recession on the horizon thanks to rising interest rates.
“You already had that stress tested a bit,” Niles said. “So if that’s the case back then, and coming off of inflation surging in 2021, and you still didn’t get a recession, why would you think inflation down at 3% and oil at $100 would cause a recession now?”
Many on Wall Street have drawn similarities between the surge in prices this time around to four years ago, when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Roth, though, cautioned investors against relying too much on that comparison.
“The economic backdrop is not a mirror image of where we are today,” she said. “Core inflation was running at 5.5% compared to 3% today. Job growth was running at around 500,000, now we’re at 37,000 over the past couple of months. So it’s just an entirely different backdrop.”
.GSPD vs. .SPX year-to-date chart.
McCourt added he thinks if the stimulus from the big beautiful bill isn’t as strong as originally thought, that likely won’t change too many outlooks for the year, particularly in stocks which he thinks never priced in a big surge in consumer spending. He noted that consumer discretionary stocks have underperformed the S&P 500 in 2026.
But he also had faith that the economy, not just the stock market, could weather oil prices and weaker-than-expected stimulus, so long as the labor market remains intact.
“We just have never had a sustained pullback in consumer spending without substantial job losses,” McCourt said. “We’ll have some shifts in spending… But it’s probably not going to impact the overall consumer spending levels.”
The ICT Silver Bullet strategy is a short-term trading approach derived from the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology. It focuses on identifying high-probability price movements that tend to occur during specific intraday trading windows, particularly around the London and New York sessions.
Unlike many conventional forex trading strategies that rely primarily on indicators, the Silver Bullet strategy emphasises market structure, liquidity pools, and fair value gaps (FVGs) to identify potential entry points. By concentrating on defined time windows and liquidity-driven price movements, traders attempt to capture short-term market inefficiencies that may appear during periods of increased institutional activity.
In this article, we explain what the ICT Silver Bullet strategy is, how it works, and how traders analyse price action, liquidity, and fair value gaps when applying this method in forex markets.
Understanding the ICT Silver Bullet Strategy
What is a Silver Bullet in trading? The ICT Silver Bullet trading strategy is a sophisticated trading methodology developed by Michael J. Huddleston, known as the Inner Circle Trader, or ICT. This strategy is designed to take advantage of specific price movements that align with certain times throughout certain sessions, specifically the London and New York sessions.
Central to the ICT Silver Bullet strategy are two concepts: liquidity and fair value gaps. Liquidity in this context refers to places within the market where there is significant trading activity, often indicated by previous highs and lows of a trading session or historical price points that attract significant interest from traders.
Fair value gaps are price areas that were either skipped over quickly during rapid price moves or areas where the price has not returned for a significant period, reflecting a disparity between perceived value and market price.
The idea behind the strategy is based on executing trades during specific one-hour windows known as Silver Bullet times. By focusing on these concepts and timings, traders can more accurately analyse market movements and align their trades with the influxes of smart money, potentially improving their results by catching swift moves towards liquidity points.
Key Components of the Strategy
The Silver Bullet ICT strategy employs a detailed approach to trading that revolves around understanding market dynamics at critical times. Here are the main components that define this strategy:
Fair Value Gaps
A fair value gap (FVG) occurs when the price quickly moves away from a level without significant trading occurring at that price, leaving a “gap” that is likely to be tested again when the price returns to this point. In the context of the ICT Silver Bullet strategy, these gaps are targeted because they represent potential inefficiencies in the market where the price may return to balance or fill the gap. Traders using this strategy watch these gaps closely as they often present clear entry points when approached again.
Liquidity Targets
Liquidity targets are essentially areas where there is expected to be a significant volume of orders, which can lead to particular price movements when these levels are approached. These include:
- Previous session highs and lows: These are often areas where stop-loss orders accumulate, making them prime targets for liquidity-driven price moves.
- Swing points in the market: Reversal and continuation points that have historical significance.
- Psychological levels: These include round numbers or price levels ending in ’00’ or ’50’, which often act as focal points for trading activity.
Specific Silver Bullet Time
Unlike many strategies that align strictly with market opening times, the ICT Silver Bullet trading strategy utilises specific one-hour windows during the day when liquidity and volatility are expected to be high due to trader participation across the globe. These Silver Bullet hours are strategically chosen based on their potential to tap into significant market moves:
- London Open Silver Bullet: Occurs from 3:00 AM to 4:00 AM Eastern Standard Time (EST) in winter and from 2:00 AM to 3:00 AM in summer, which is 8:00 AM to 9:00 AM Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) in winter and 7:00 AM to 8:00 AM in summer.
- New York AM Session Silver Bullet: From 10:00 AM to 11:00 AM EST, translating to 3:00 PM to 4:00 PM GMT.
- New York PM Session Silver Bullet: From 2:00 PM to 3:00 PM EST or 7:00 PM to 8:00 PM GMT.
These time slots are selected based on historical data showing heightened trading activity and, therefore, increased probabilities to capture moves towards identified liquidity targets.
Implementing the ICT Silver Bullet Strategy
Traders utilising the ICT Silver Bullet strategy typically prepare by marking potential fair value gaps and liquidity targets before these key trading times. As these windows approach, they monitor price action closely for signs that the market is moving bullishly or bearishly toward these liquidity points, enabling them to search for an entry.
Is there a specific Silver Bullet time? This is an intraday strategy; therefore, ICT says it’s popular on a 15-minute timeframe or lower. Some traders use the 1-minute to 5-minute for the Silver Bullet setup, though those inexperienced with the strategy may prefer the 5-minute.
Traders can experiment with session timing and entry setups directly on FXOpen’s TickTrader platform, where real-time charts and over 1,200 tools support comprehensive analysis.
Here’s a breakdown of the Silver Bullet model:
Entry
- Market Direction and Liquidity Analysis: Before the designated Silver Bullet timeframes, traders perform a detailed assessment of the market direction on higher timeframes, such as the 15-minute to 4-hour charts. This initial analysis is crucial to align their strategies with the market’s overall momentum.
- Identifying Major Liquidity Points: Traders also mark significant liquidity targets during their analysis, such as previous session/day highs and lows. These points are expected to attract significant trading activity and thus are critical for planning entry points.
- Formation of Fair Value Gaps (FVG): During the Silver Bullet hours—specifically from 3:00 AM to 4:00 AM, 10:00 AM to 11:00 AM, and 2:00 PM to 3:00 PM EST—traders watch for the market to approach these liquidity points and leave behind a Fair Value Gap. This movement is essential as it indicates a potential inefficiency in price that the market may seek to correct.
- Setting Limit Orders at FVGs: Once an FVG is identified, traders set their limit orders at the boundary of the FVG closest to their intended trade direction. If aiming for a long position, the order is placed at the top of the FVG; for a short position, at the bottom. This method allows traders to potentially enter the market as it moves to ‘fill’ the gap, aligning with the initial momentum assessment and the subsequent market reaction to liquidity levels.
Stop Loss
- Initial Placement: Traders typically place stop-loss orders to potentially manage risk tightly with respect to the FVG’s structure. If trading long, the stop loss might be set just below the low of the candle that forms the FVG; if trading short, just above the high.
- Swing Points: Alternatively, stop losses might also be placed beyond recent swing highs or lows, providing a buffer against market volatility and minor fluctuations that do not affect the overall market trend.
Take Profit
- Targeting Liquidity Points: The common practice for setting take-profit points involves aiming for the next significant liquidity target identified during the preparatory phase.
- Risk-to-Reward Considerations: Many traders set their take-profit goals based on a calculated risk-to-reward ratio, often aiming for at least a 1:2 ratio. This means that for every unit of risk taken, two units of reward are targeted. In terms of pips, traders generally look for at least 15 pips when trading forex and 10 points in indices.
EUR/USD Example
Let’s consider the Silver Bullet in forex. In the provided EUR/USD chart example, a detailed analysis of higher timeframes has established a bearish outlook. Consequently, the focus is on identifying sell trading setups while disregarding potential long setups.
During the 8:00 AM to 9:00 AM GMT window, there’s a noticeable Fair Value Gap (FVG) that forms following a swift rejection from an upward move. This price action reflects a viable entry point for a short position. Traders could place a limit order at the bottom boundary of the candle that initiated the FVG, with a stop loss positioned just above the candle’s high or the nearby swing point high, depending on their risk tolerance. The target for this trade is set at the previous day’s low, which is reached and prompts a short-term reversal in price direction.
Later in the day, between 7:00 PM and 8:00 PM GMT, another FVG develops. Following the same principle, we can enter at the bottom of the FVG. Setting a stop loss above the swing high is considered more prudent than directly above the candle high, which in this case would likely lead to a stop-out due to the tightness of the entry. Since the previous day’s low has already been reached earlier, the next logical target is the low of the US session, aligning with the day’s bearish momentum.
The Bottom Line
The ICT Silver Bullet strategy offers traders a way to combine liquidity concepts, fair value gaps, and session timing into a clear trading framework. While no strategy guarantees results, applying this method with patience and proper risk control may help refine trade entries and improve market analysis.
Those looking to apply these principles in a robust trading environment, may consider opening an FXOpen account and access over 700 markets, low commissions, and tight spreads.
FAQs
What Is the Silver Bullet Strategy in Trading?
The ICT Silver Bullet strategy in trading is a specific, time-sensitive approach designed to capitalise on liquidity and fair value gaps that typically form during key periods of market volatility. Developed by Michael J. Huddleston, also known as ICT, it aims to take advantage of the movements that occur when the market reacts to these gaps during certain hours of the trading day.
What Time Is the Silver Bullet Strategy Valid?
The Silver Bullet strategy is executed during three distinct one-hour windows corresponding to heightened market activity periods. These are:
- London Open Silver Bullet: Occurs from 3:00 AM to 4:00 AM Eastern Standard Time (EST) in winter and from 2:00 AM to 3:00 AM in summer, which is 8:00 AM to 9:00 AM Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) in winter and 7:00 AM to 8:00 AM in summer.
- New York AM Session Silver Bullet: 10:00 AM to 11:00 AM EST (3:00 PM to 4:00 PM GMT).
- New York PM Session Silver Bullet: 2:00 PM to 3:00 PM EST (7:00 PM to 8:00 PM GMT).
How Long Does the Silver Bullet Strategy Last?
As an intraday trading strategy, the Silver Bullet targets quick, short-term trades within specific one-hour windows. The trades are typically intended to be closed by the end of the trading day, capitalising on rapid movements towards and away from liquidity points.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Crypto World
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Stock Surges 5% Following Positive Kidney Disease Trial Results
TLDR
- Shares of Vertex climbed approximately 5-7% following successful phase 3 trial results for povetacicept in treating IgA nephropathy.
- Trial participants experienced a 52% decrease in urine protein levels at 36 weeks, compared to only 4.3% in the placebo group.
- The treatment achieved a 79.3% reduction in harmful antibody levels and eliminated hematuria in more than 85% of participants.
- The company intends to submit for FDA accelerated approval before the end of March, utilizing a priority review voucher to shorten review duration to six months.
- Wall Street firms Cantor and Evercore upgraded their projections, setting price targets at $590 and $530 respectively.
Shares of Vertex Pharmaceuticals experienced a notable surge following impressive late-stage clinical trial outcomes for povetacicept, an investigational kidney disease therapy. The stock climbed as high as 7% during after-hours trading Monday, stabilizing near 5% gains in Tuesday’s premarket session.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, VRTX
Povetacicept targets IgA nephropathy, a chronic autoimmune condition that progressively damages kidney tissue. Medical research indicates that without intervention, a significant percentage of diagnosed patients may progress to kidney failure within two decades.
Trial participants receiving povetacicept demonstrated a 52% decrease in proteinuria levels following 36 weeks of treatment. In contrast, the placebo cohort showed merely a 4.3% reduction. Elevated protein in urine serves as a critical biomarker for ongoing kidney deterioration.
Additionally, the therapy reduced concentrations of a damaging antibody by 79.3%. More than 85% of treated patients experienced resolution of hematuria, significantly outperforming the placebo arm. According to Vertex, the medication, administered via injection monthly, exhibited a favorable safety profile with good tolerability.
The interim analysis encompassed 199 participants who had reached the 36-week milestone. The complete study enrolls 605 patients and extends over two years, with the primary objective of assessing whether povetacicept can decelerate progressive kidney function decline.
Vertex announced plans to file a comprehensive FDA submission by March’s conclusion. The company will leverage a priority review voucher, which compresses the typical 10-month regulatory evaluation period to just six months.
Wall Street Reacts
Investment analysts responded swiftly to the announcement. Evercore ISI’s Cory Kasimov characterized the outcomes as “pretty good validation” for Vertex’s $4.9 billion Alpine Immune Sciences acquisition in 2024, the source of povetacicept. His rating stands at Outperform with a $530 target price.
Carter Gould from Cantor described the data as “the first major step in unlocking the renal franchise,” projecting potential peak sales exceeding $10 billion. Gould maintains an Overweight rating with a $590 price objective.
Evan Seigerman from BMO Capital Markets stated the results “firmly places povetacicept as a clear competitor and potential leader” within the IgA nephropathy treatment landscape.
How It Stacks Up Against Rivals
According to Seigerman’s analysis, the trial outcomes compare advantageously to both Otsuka’s marketed therapy Voyxact and Vera Therapeutics’ investigational compound atacicept.
Vertex has historically been recognized for its dominant cystic fibrosis portfolio, which contributed to the company surpassing a $100 billion market capitalization. The IgA nephropathy initiative represents a strategic expansion into renal disease therapeutics.
Premarket trading Tuesday showed the stock at $485.10. Complete two-year trial results remain forthcoming.
Candlestick patterns are widely used in technical analysis to identify potential shifts in market sentiment and price momentum. One formation that traders frequently monitor during market declines is the inverted hammer candlestick pattern.
An inverted hammer is a single-candle formation characterised by a small real body near the lower end of the price range and a long upper shadow, typically at least twice the length of the body, with little or no lower shadow. It usually appears after a downtrend and may indicate that buyers attempted to push prices higher during the session, suggesting that selling pressure could be weakening.
In this article, we explain the meaning of the inverted hammer candlestick, examine its key characteristics, outline how traders identify it on charts, and discuss common ways it may be incorporated into technical analysis and trading strategies.
What Is an Inverted Hammer?
An inverted hammer is a candlestick pattern that appears at the end of a downtrend, typically signalling a potential bullish reversal. It has a distinct shape—a small body at the lower end of the candle and a long upper wick that is at least twice the size of the body. This structure suggests that although sellers initially dominated, buyers stepped in, pushing prices higher. While the inverted hammer alone does not confirm a reversal, it’s often considered a sign of a possible trend change when followed by a bullish move on subsequent candles.
The pattern can have any colour so that you can find a red inverted hammer candlestick or upside down green hammer. Although both will signal a bullish reversal, an inverted green hammer candle is believed to provide a stronger signal, reflecting the strength of bulls.
One of the unique features of this pattern is that traders may apply it to various financial instruments, such as stocks, cryptocurrencies*, ETFs, indices, and forex, across different timeframes. To test strategies with an inverted hammer formation, you may consider using FXOpen’s TickTrader trading platform, which provides access to over 700 markets.
Hammer Candlestick vs Inverted Hammer
The hammer candlestick pattern and inverted hammer are both single-candle patterns that appear in downtrends and signal potential bullish reversals, but they have distinct formations and implications:
- Hammer: The reversal hammer candle has a small body at the top with a long lower wick, indicating that buyers pushed prices back up after a period of selling pressure. This bullish hammer pattern shows that sellers were initially strong, but buyers regained control, potentially signalling a reversal.
- Inverted Hammer: The inverted hammer, by contrast, has a small body at the bottom with a long upper wick. This structure indicates initial buying pressure, but sellers prevented a complete takeover. This pattern suggests that buyers may soon regain strength, hinting at a possible trend reversal.
Both patterns signal possible bullish sentiment, but while the green or red hammer candlestick focuses on buyer strength after selling, the inverted hammer suggests buyer interest in an overall bearish context, needing further confirmation for a trend shift.
How Traders Identify the Inverted Hammer Candlestick in Charts
Although the inverted hammer is a recognisable pattern, traders often apply additional rules to potentially strengthen the reversal signal it provides.
Step 1: Identify the Pattern in a Downtrend
- Traders ensure the market is in a downtrend, as the inverted hammer is only significant when it appears after a period of sustained selling pressure.
- Then, they look for a candlestick with a small body at the lower end and a long upper wick that’s at least twice the size of the body. This upper shadow shows initial buying pressure followed by selling, suggesting a potential reversal in sentiment.
Step 2: Choose Appropriate Timeframes
- The pattern can appear across various timeframes, but higher timeframe charts are more popular among traders, as shorter timeframes, like 5 or 15-minute charts, may provide false signals.
Step 3: Use Indicators to Strengthen Identification
- Volume: A rise in bullish trading volume after the inverted hammer can indicate stronger interest from buyers, increasing the likelihood of a trend reversal.
- Oscillators: Oscillators like Stochastic, Awesome Oscillator, or RSI showing an oversold reading alongside the candle can further suggest that the asset might be due for a reversal.
Step 4: Look for Confirmation Signals
- Gap-Up Opening: A gap-up opening in the next trading session indicates buyers stepping in, giving further weight to the bullish reversal.
- Bullish Candle: Following the inverted hammer with a strong bullish candle confirms that buying pressure has continued. This is a key signal that a trend reversal may be underway.
By following these steps and waiting for confirmation signals, traders might increase the reliability of the inverted hammer’s signals.
Trading the Inverted Hammer Candlestick Pattern: Real-Market Examples
Inverted hammer trading is based on a systematic approach to potential bullish reversals. Here are some steps traders may consider:
- Identify the Inverted Hammer: Spot the setup on a price chart by following the rules discussed earlier.
- Assess the Context: Analyse the broader market context and consider the pattern’s location within the prevailing trend. Look for support levels, trendlines, or other significant price areas that could strengthen the reversal signal.
- Set an Entry: Candlestick patterns don’t provide accurate entry and exit points as chart patterns or some indicators do. However, traders can consider some general rules. Usually, traders wait for at least several candles to be formed upwards after the pattern is formed.
- Set Stop Loss and Take Profit Levels: The theory states that traders use a stop-loss order to limit potential losses if the trade doesn’t go as anticipated. It may be placed below the low of the candlestick or based on a risk-reward ratio. The take-profit target might be placed at the next resistance level.
Inverted Hammer Candlestick: Live Market Example
The trader looks for a bullish inverted hammer on the USDJPY chart. After a subsequent downtrend, the inverted hammer appearing at a support level signals a potential trend reversal. They enter the market at the close of the inverted hammer candle and place a stop loss below the support level. Their take-profit target is at the next resistance level.
A trader could implement a more conservative approach and wait for at least a few candles to form in the uptrend direction. However, as the pattern was formed at the 5-minute chart, a trader could enter the market too late or with a poor risk-reward ratio.
Advantages and Limitations of the Inverted Hammer
The inverted hammer has its strengths and limitations. Here’s a closer look:
Advantages
- Recognisable: The pattern has a unique shape, making it accessible for traders at all experience levels.
- Can Be Spot in Different Markets: The candle can be found on charts of different assets across all timeframes.
- Clear Idea: When it appears on a chart, it reflects a trend reversal, allowing traders to incorporate it into broader trading strategies, especially when there are additional confirming signals.
Limitations
- Reliability Depends on Confirmation: The candle alone does not guarantee a market reversal; it requires confirmation from the next candlestick or other indicators. Without this, the reversal signal may be weak.
- Works Only in Strong Downtrends: The pattern might be more useful in strong downtrends; in ranging or weak trends, it generates less reliable signals.
- False Signals Can Occur: False signals are possible, especially in volatile markets. Over-reliance on this pattern without additional analysis may lead to poor trade outcomes.
Final Thoughts
While the inverted hammer can provide valuable insights into potential trend reversals, it should not be the sole basis for trading decisions. It is important to supplement analysis with other technical indicators and tools to strengthen the overall trading strategy. Also, risk management is crucial while trading this formation.
If you want to develop your own trading strategy, you may consider opening an FXOpen account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50.
FAQ
Is an Inverted Hammer Bullish?
Yes, it is considered a bullish reversal pattern. It indicates a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend in the market. While it may seem counterintuitive due to its name, the setup suggests that buying pressure has overcome selling pressure and that bulls are gaining strength.
How Can an Inverted Hammer Be Traded?
When using an inverted hammer, traders wait for confirmation in the next session, such as a gap-up or strong bullish candle. They usually open a buy position with a stop-loss below the low of the pattern to potentially manage risk and a take-profit level at the closest resistance level.
Is the Inverted Hammer a Trend Reversal Signal?
It is generally considered a potential trend reversal signal. An inverted hammer in a downtrend suggests a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. An inverted hammer in an uptrend does not signify anything.
What Happens After a Reverse Hammer Candlestick?
After a reverse (or inverted) hammer candle, there may be a potential bullish reversal if confirmed by a strong bullish candle in the next session. However, without confirmation, the pattern alone does not guarantee a trend change.
Can an Inverted Hammer Candlestick Be Traded in an Uptrend?
In an uptrend, an inverted hammer isn’t generally considered significant because it’s primarily a reversal signal in a downtrend.
Are Inverted Hammer and Shooting Star the Same?
No, the inverted hammer and shooting star look similar but occur in opposite trends; the former appears in a downtrend as a bullish reversal signal, while the latter appears in an uptrend as a bearish reversal signal.
What Is the Difference Between a Hanging Man and an Inverted Hammer?
The hanging man and inverted hammer differ in both appearance and context. The former appears at the end of an uptrend as a bearish signal and has a small body and a long lower shadow, while the latter appears at the end of a downtrend as a bullish signal and has a small body and a long upper shadow.
What Is the Difference Between Red and Green Inverted Hammer Candlesticks?
A bullish (green) inverted hammer candlestick closes higher than its opening price, indicating a stronger bullish sentiment. A bearish (red) inverted hammer candlestick closes lower than its opening, which might indicate less buying strength, but both colours may signal a reversal if followed by confirmation.
*Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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