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Chainlink (CRYPTO: LINK) co-founder Sergey Nazarov argues that the current crypto downturn is not a replay of previous bear markets. Speaking on X on Tuesday, Nazarov noted that there have been no FTX-style collapses this time and pointed to a persistent wave of tokenized real-world assets that continues to grow despite price declines. Crypto market capitalization has fallen about 44% from its October all-time high of $4.4 trillion, with roughly $2 trillion leaving the space in just four months. He frames the cycle as a test of the industry’s progress: cycles reveal how far the ecosystem has advanced, and this downturn is exposing both resilience and a real-world asset narrative that could outlast speculative pricing.
Key takeaways
- The downturn lacks a single systemic event comparable to FTX-era collapses, suggesting improved risk management across institutions.
- Tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) are expanding on-chain, signaling a use case beyond mere price speculation.
- On-chain perpetuals and asset tokenization offer 24/7 markets, on-chain collateral, and real-time data that could drive institutional adoption.
- Chainlink’s credibility as a backbone for on-chain RWAs remains intact even as the broader market experiences weakness.
- Analysts and industry observers see a bifurcation between crypto prices and the growth trajectory of on-chain RWAs, potentially reshaping the industry’s value proposition.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $ETH, $LINK
Sentiment: Neutral
Price impact: Negative. A broad sell-off and outflows have pressured prices and market capitalization, even as on-chain RWA activity trends higher.
Market context: The current cycle unfolds amid a shifting risk environment, macro uncertainty, and ongoing debates about liquidity and regulation that influence both crypto assets and tokenized RWAs.
Why it matters
The argument that the bear market is not a monolithic crash but a spectrum of dynamics matters because it reframes what investors should watch. Nazarov emphasizes that the absence of large, systemic failures this cycle points to improved risk controls and more mature market infrastructure. In practical terms, this could translate into steadier liquidity provision, fewer cascading liquidations, and greater confidence in deploying capital through on-chain channels rather than off-ramp exits.
Central to this narrative is the acceleration of RWA tokenization. According to RWA.xyz, tokenized RWAs on-chain have surged by about 300% over the past 12 months, underscoring a use case that can prosper irrespective of crypto price cycles. The implication is clear: real-world assets—ranging from securitized notes to commodity-linked contracts—are becoming meaningful, on-chain stores of value and collateral concepts, not merely speculative bets. This trend could feed into broader institutional demand, as on-chain mechanisms offer transparency, auditability, and cross-border settlement capabilities that traditional markets take days or weeks to deliver.
Yet the market’s performance remains tethered to macro and sector-specific catalysts. LINK, the token associated with pricing data and oracle services, has faced sustained weakness, trading in bear-market territory after peaking earlier in the cycle. The dynamic illustrates a decoupling: while RWAs push forward in practical utility, the crypto market, including major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, can diverge for periods where macro sentiment dominates. In this context, on-chain RWAs could gradually displace some narrative weight away from pure price action toward real-world utility and risk-adjusted capital formation.
Institutional involvement is widely anticipated to hinge on the utility of these on-chain structures. Nazarov argues that the combination of perpetual markets, tokenized assets, and robust on-chain collateral is creating a more resilient foundation for institutions to experiment with crypto-enabled finance. The broader ecosystem benefits from infrastructure upgrades that enable risk management, settlement, and governance in a transparent, programmable environment. The takeaway is not that crypto prices must explode to prove value, but that the underlying systems—the oracles, the data streams, and the contractual primitives—are becoming indispensable to professional finance.
As markets digest these developments, some observers emphasize that the current sell-off is driven by factors outside the crypto sector. Analysts have framed the move as a wider market concern about AI equities, liquidity expectations under a potentially tighter policy regime, and shifts in liquidity leadership. While these external pressures complicate the price narrative, the on-chain RWA ecosystem appears to be advancing on its own trajectory, aligned with broader fintech adoption and cross-chain interoperability goals.
“If these trends continue, I believe what I have been saying for years will happen; on-chain RWAs will surpass cryptocurrency in the total value in our industry, and what our industry is about will fundamentally change.”
Not all bear markets are equal
Industry observers have framed this downturn as potentially less damaging to the core ecosystem than prior cycles. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani described the Bitcoin bear case as historically weak, suggesting that the price action reflects a crisis of confidence rather than a structural breakdown. “The current Bitcoin price action is a mere crisis of confidence. Nothing broke, no skeletons will show up,” the note said. The takeaway is that the macro environment, not just isolated crypto incidents, is weighing on sentiment.
Other voices emphasize a more nuanced picture. For instance, market participants note that macro catalysts—ranging from interest-rate expectations to tech-sector dynamics—have a disproportionate influence on crypto pricing versus on-chain activity. The sell-off has been described as being driven more by non-crypto catalysts than by internal systemic failures within the crypto space, a distinction that could support a faster reacceleration should risk appetite improve and liquidity return.
Market context
Against the backdrop of a 44% drawdown in crypto market cap from the October peak and substantial outflows, the story of RWAs on-chain remains a central pillar of longer-term value propositions in crypto. The dynamic underscores a broader trend toward tokenization and on-chain finance as mainstream infrastructure projects mature. If on-chain RWAs continue to gain traction, the sector could reorient investor attention toward scalable, real-world use cases, rather than relying solely on volatility-driven appetite for purely digital assets.
Why it matters
For builders, the message is clear: investing in robust on-chain infrastructure for RWAs—oracle reliability, settlement speed, and secure collateral mechanisms—could yield enduring demand. For investors, RWAs offer a potential hedge against crypto-price cycles by anchoring value in tangible, off-chain assets. For the market, the continued growth of RWAs may redefine what constitutes “crypto value,” expanding the spectrum of investable instruments and potentially attracting traditional finance players to participate in a more regulated, verifiable on-chain ecosystem.
What to watch next
- Updates from RWA.xyz on on-chain RWAs growth metrics and new asset classes tokenized on-chain.
- Institutional pilots adopting on-chain perpetuals and RWA-backed collateral frameworks.
- Regulatory developments affecting tokenized real-world assets and oracle data provisioning.
- Cross-chain integrations that improve liquidity, settling quickly, and governance for RWAs.
Sources & verification
- Sergey Nazarov’s X post discussing bear-market dynamics and RWAs growth.
- RWA.xyz data showing on-chain RWA value growth (about 300% YoY).
- LINK price/index coverage referenced in market commentary.
- Bernstein note on Bitcoin bear-case context.
- Wemade KRW stablecoin alliance with Chainlink coverage.
RWA momentum and a reshaping crypto market
Chainlink’s foundational role in powering on-chain RWAs remains a consistent thread as the sector charts its next phase. The on-chain RWA narrative is supported by observable growth metrics and a steady flow of products that enable real-world assets to exist, trade, and collateralize on-chain. While price action can swing with global liquidity and risk sentiment, the underlying technology stack—secure oracles, robust data feeds, and programmable contracts—continues to attract the interest of developers, institutions, and asset issuers alike. The broader question is whether on-chain RWAs will eventually carry a larger share of industry value than speculative crypto assets, a shift Nazarov has been vocal about predicting for years.
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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) cooled after marching toward a fresh high near $74,000 earlier in the week, setting up a critical debate among traders about whether the rally marks a local top or the next leg in a larger bullish sequence. The pullback comes as market participants weigh whether the current move mirrors patterns from prior cycles and what it portends for the path ahead. Notably, the market had already surged to a roughly $126,000 peak in October 2025, a reminder that outsized booms can be followed by sharp corrections. As sentiment remains mixed, analysts are scrutinizing structure, liquidity, and on‑chain dynamics to gauge the probability of renewed upside versus a deeper retracement.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin’s current setup bears resemblance to the middle phases of prior bear markets, suggesting another potential leg down below $60,000 if buyers fail to sustain momentum.
- Several voices contend the bottom may be in, forecasting a breakout toward $75,000–$80,000 if demand persists and overhead resistance weakens.
- The move to $74,000 has been followed by caution signals, including a bearish chart pattern and persistent resistance near highs, which have sparked renewed debate about the cycle’s trajectory.
- Historical fractals from the 2022 bear market are often cited by bears as a reminder that euphoric rallies can precede severe declines, including revisits to sub-$60,000 levels.
- Commodity-style drivers such as strong spot‑BTC ETF inflows and tightening supply are cited as factors that could sustain a longer‑term rally, potentially supporting a climb toward the $75,000–$80,000 zone if conditions stay favorable.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Neutral
Price impact: Neutral. The narrative centers on potential scenarios rather than an established directional move.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. Given mixed signals and a lack of a clear breakout or breakdown, a cautious stance is warranted until clearer support or resistance levels emerge.
Market context: The broader market is digesting liquidity shifts and policy expectations as ETF inflows intensify and supply tightens, factors that could either reinforce a nascent rally or amplify a retest of lower levels depending on risk appetite and macro cues.
Why it matters
The ongoing tug-of-war around BTC’s price has broad implications for traders, institutions, and on‑chain participants. If the market can sustain momentum above key pivots, the narrative shifts toward a continued ascent into the mid-to-upper 70k range and beyond, potentially attracting fresh inflows from both retail and institutional players. Conversely, a failure to hold critical support could unleash a renewed wave of selling pressure, testing the resilience of buyers and reviving memories of the sharp drawdowns that defined earlier cycles.
One of the most salient factors shaping the near-term outlook is liquidity. The year has seen a divergence between price action and on-chain signals, with exchange outflows and the behavior of large holders cited by analysts as meaningful foreshadowing tools. For instance, a notable episode where substantial BTC moved off exchanges was highlighted as an indicator of potential accumulation. Observers also point to the interplay between on-chain activity and risk sentiment, noting that the absence or presence of major liquidity events often precedes meaningful price moves.
Another layer of complexity comes from the macro backdrop and regulatory considerations. As strategic investors reassess risk, the direction of ETF inflows—especially for spot BTC products—has become a barometer for institutional confidence. In this context, the current cycle’s mix of supply constraints and growing demand could tilt the market toward a more sustained rally, provided that macro conditions remain conducive and risk appetite stays buoyant. However, if macro momentum stalls or adverse developments emerge, the same structural strengths could be insufficient to prevent a retest of lower zones, underscoring the sensitivity of BTC to both investment flows and broad market psychology.
What to watch next
- BTC must hold above the $70,000 level to maintain the bullish setup; a break below could raise the risk of a reversion toward the mid-$60,000s.
- Sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and related products would be a bullish catalyst, potentially reinforcing hands that expect higher highs in the near term.
- On-chain and market microstructure signals around the $62,000–$65,000 band will be pivotal for setting the next swing direction, as that zone is flagged by some analysts as a concentration of demand.
- Traders will be watching whether the market revisits sub-$60,000 levels in a worst-case scenario, as historical analogs have shown such levels can reappear even after renewed optimism.
Sources & verification
- Bitcoin price movements around the $74,000 high and subsequent pullback, with references to a rise toward $72k in related discussions.
- Historical context citing the October 2025 all-time peak near $126,000, used to frame the volatility of the current cycle.
- Reports of anomalous BTC exchange outflows and their potential implications for liquidity and future price action.
- Technical and chart-focused analyses that discuss patterns like death crosses and resistance levels that have influenced market sentiment.
Market reaction and key details
Market observers continue to dissect Bitcoin’s price behavior within a framework that weighs whether key milestones herald a durable pivot or a temporary pause before another leg lower. The move to approximately $74,000 has provoked a spectrum of interpretations, from calls for caution to bets on a renewed upswing. As with prior cycles, the narrative now centers on whether the current rally can sustain itself in the face of technical overheads, liquidity dynamics, and evolving macro cues.
What the data say about the near term
The fractal view—where past bear-market patterns repeat in a compressed timeline—remains a touchstone for many market watchers. Some analysts argue that the current structure mirrors the mid-phases of previous cycles, which could imply additional downside risk if the strength of the bounce fades. Others stress that the market environment has shifted through a combination of supportive factors, including tighter supply and escalating institutional interest, which could cushion against a sharp retreat.
Notable voices in the community have offered contrasting takes. One analyst highlighted that each cycle tends to form a local top before a new cycle of price discovery, a pattern that could imply a correction after the recent rally. Others point to a different dynamic this time around, arguing that the combination of liquidity pumps and on‑chain behavior may yield a higher probability of a sustained breakout. The discussion is nuanced, and the outcome will hinge on the durability of support at critical levels and the intensity of buying pressure as the market digests new information.
As part of the broader narrative, several observers emphasized the potential influence of external factors beyond price action alone. The trajectory of ETF inflows, for instance, could prove decisive in shaping near-term momentum, while shifts in risk appetite driven by macro developments will likely redefine the odds of success for a move above the $75,000 threshold. In that regard, the market remains highly sensitive to headlines and liquidity shifts, with traders adopting a careful stance until a clearer pattern emerges.
Analysts who track swing dynamics note that, even if the path stays volatile, there is a growing recognition that the market is being influenced by a broader regime shift—one where on‑ramp liquidity, speculative positions, and institutional participation interact in ways that were less pronounced in earlier cycles. The result is a more complex price landscape, where a single event or data point is unlikely to decide the outcome. Instead, market participants will likely respond to a constellation of signals, including on‑chain flows, ETF activity, and macro indicators, as they gauge whether the current cycle is setting up for a durable move or another retracement.
For now, the consensus remains mixed. The price action to date—coupled with warnings of potential sub-$60,000 revisits and the prospect of a breakout if certain levels hold—suggests that risk-managed positioning may be prudent for those navigating this period of uncertainty. The story remains about the balance of power between bears and bulls, with the outcome likely to be defined by the next few price swings rather than a single trend line.
Sam Bankman-Fried’s X account, which claims to relay the convicted fraudster’s words “through a proxy,” is now apparently spending much of its time following promoters of insider enrichment schemes.
Among those followed by the account, according to tracker service Web3 Alerts, are a robot memecoin promoter, a “chaos trader on Solana shitters,” and another memecoin trader.
Another follow claims to be “manifesting 1000x” but most probably hasn’t.
The tracker first flagged the pattern on February 26 when @SBF_FTX followed someone who claims to be a “copy trade messiah.”
Its owner openly promotes a token that’s lost one-quarter of its value in the past three months and is down 90% from its December 24 high.
The token’s description has all the hallmarks of AI slop, including run-on sentences, universality, superficiality, and a word salad of futuristic buzzwords. It reads:
“An end-to-end solution enabling agents across domains, frameworks, and specialties to work together seamlessly in a unified environment—combining custom cognitive frameworks, collaborative architectures, and intelligent integrations to enable novel ways of executing work. From business automation to creative production, users will have access to agentic-driven workflows that adapt to their needs, enabling them to streamline processes and tackle ambitious projects with more autonomy than ever before. The entire agent-powered teams can be configured, deployed, and tailored without necessitating any technical expertise. We are defining a new era in personal autonomy.”
Whoever controls Bankman-Fried’s X account also followed someone on March 5 whose bio advertises a “Trojan referal bot” (that probably follows all terms of service and spells correctly when it actually conducts those referrals).
That account promotes a Marco Rubio memecoin, “the most memeable guy right now” besides thousands of more famous people.
There are, of course, dozens of Marco Rubio memecoins with track records of near-total collapse, and a limitless supply of new, interchangeable celebrity memecoins.
Whoever is relaying Bankman-Fried’s messages from prison wants to know about them.
A proxy for prison communications
The @SBF_FTX account uses Bureau of Prisons-approved phone calls and emails to relay the prisoner’s words via tweets. Its bio reads: “SBF’s words. Posted through a proxy” and notes that follows don’t indicate endorsements.
That disclaimer does a lot of heavy lifting. In recent weeks, SBF has been re-litigating his criminal conviction in the court of public opinion. He’s serving a 25-year sentence for fraud and conspiracy after stealing roughly $8 billion from FTX customers.
Read more: SBF wants Trump to know he was working with Republicans all along
Federal inmates may not access social media directly. “A friend” manages it on Bankman-Fried’s behalf.
The follow spree from SBF’s account
All of this isn’t just disturbing, it has profound financial ramifications. Unfortunately, the @SBF_FTX account still moves markets.
For example, when it posted “gm” in September 2025, the former FTX token FTT surged 60% within minutes. Follows or mentions from the account can push real traffic toward obscure tokens, disclaimer or not.
The follow spree raises obvious, indeterminate questions. Has the convicted architect of one of crypto’s largest frauds directed his “friend” to follow memecoin promoters from a federal prison? Why is this person following a “chaos trader on Solana shitters”? Why is SBF’s account lending a million followers’ worth of credibility to coin peddlers in the first place?
Bankman-Fried took billions of dollars from FTX customers, without their consent, to trade at his offshore hedge fund, Alameda Research.
Now someone speaking for him is following the next generation of coin promoters.
Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news, follow us on X, Bluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.
Trading volumes in tokenized stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) routed through 1inch’s integration with Ondo have passed $2.5 billion since the partnership went live in September 2025.
According to data published on Dune Analytics and a release shared with Cointelegraph, real-world assets (RWAs) are now the fastest-growing volume category on 1inch. While they still account for a minority of overall flow, 1inch co-founder Sergei Kunz told Cointelegraph that “the direction of travel is clear,” and shows no signs of slowing down, despite the broader crypto slump.
Most of the activity is happening on BNB (BNB) Chain, where roughly $2 billion in related volume has been generated over 1.3 million transactions, with peak active users nearing 24,800 in a single period.
Kunz said that the combination of a low-friction user experience and massive retail distribution made BNB Chain “the natural place for RWA activity to occur,” adding that it was “happening faster and more retail-sized than on Ethereum (ETH).”
Related: MEXC expands tokenized stock offerings with new Ondo Finance listings
He added that both retail and advanced users were trading RWAs, and that the typical swap size was around $1,400, which he said showed “real capital, deployed with intent” rather than test traffic.
The most popular tokens are currently well-known traditional finance names such as Nvidia ($354 million in volume), Tesla ($332 million), Google ($249 million), and Netflix ($98 million), plus silver among non-equity assets ($225 million).
Tokenized RWAs defy slump as Ethereum nears $15 billion
The milestone comes as tokenized RWAs emerge as one of the few consistent growth stories in crypto. Ethereum’s RWA total value locked (TVL) has climbed to nearly $15 billion, up roughly 200% over the past year.
Tokenized US Treasuries have been a major driver of that growth, with a market cap that has risen by over $1 billion since the start of 2026, a roughly 50x increase since 2024, as products like BlackRock’s BUIDL fund help pull traditional fixed income onchain.
Related: Kraken’s xStocks tops $25B in volume with more than 80K onchain holders
At the same time, tokenized RWAs and the infrastructure behind them have continued to attract fresh capital. RWA tokenization projects were among the biggest winners in crypto venture funding in 2025, while onchain RWA markets climbed roughly 13.5% over 30 days during a period when the wider crypto market shed around $1 trillion in value.
RWAs to become everyday DeFi plumbing
1inch’s Ondo integration shows how aggregators are evolving into distribution rails for regulated RWA issuers. Kunz said 1inch remained non-custodial and did not issue the RWAs itself, with eligibility and jurisdictional controls enforced at the issuer level, while it focuses on routing, application programming interfaces (APIs) and disclosures.
Looking ahead, Kunz sees RWAs taking “the next leap forward” only when liquidity depth, standards and regulatory clarity align, at which point he expects tokenized assets to function as everyday “financial plumbing on DeFi” rails rather than a niche side bet.
AI Eye: IronClaw rivals OpenClaw, Olas launches bots for Polymarket
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) moved Wednesday to settle its high-profile enforcement case against Justin Sun and his affiliated companies, proposing a $10 million civil penalty.
If approved by a federal judge, the judgment would dismiss all remaining claims against the TRON founder with prejudice, marking a decisive end to the years-long legal battle.
- Settlement Terms: Rainberry Inc. agrees to a $10 million penalty and an injunction against deceptive practices without admitting wrongdoing.
- Case Dismissal: All claims against Justin Sun, the Tron Foundation, and the BitTorrent Foundation will be dismissed with prejudice.
- Regulatory Signal: The deal represents a significant de-escalation by the SEC following recent leadership changes and industry pushback.
Discover: The best meme coins on Solana
SEC Deal: A $10 Million Resolution to Years of Litigation
According to a proposed final judgment filed yesterday in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, Rainberry Inc., the company behind the BitTorrent protocol, will pay the $10 million civil penalty.
The company also agreed to a permanent injunction barring it from violating anti-fraud provisions in future securities offerings. Crucially, Rainberry accepted the settlement without admitting or denying the SEC’s allegations.
In exchange for this penalty, the SEC agreed to dismiss all outstanding claims against Sun personally, as well as the Tron Foundation and BitTorrent Foundation. The dismissal is “with prejudice,” meaning the regulator cannot refile these specific charges against Sun or his foundations in the future. The agreement effectively clears Sun’s personal liability in the matter.
Sun confirmed the development on social media on today. In a statement on X, he noted that the resolution “brings closure” and declared his intention to focus on “accelerating innovation in the U.S. and around the world.”
I am very pleased to confirm that the SEC has moved to dismiss all claims against me, Tron Foundation, and BitTorrent Foundation.
Today’s resolution brings closure, but I never stopped building. I will continue to focus on accelerating innovation in the United States and around…— H.E. Justin Sun
(@justinsuntron) March 5, 2026
Context: From Celebrity Charges to Political Pivots
The SEC originally sued Sun in March 2023, alleging the unregistered sale of TRX and BTT tokens.
The regulator’s complaint was extensive, accusing Sun of directing wash trading to artificially inflate TRX volumes and orchestrating undisclosed payments to celebrities like Lindsay Lohan and Jake Paul for promotion.
Six of those celebrities settled in 2024 for roughly $400,000 combined.
This settlement arrives amid a broader shift in SEC enforcement strategy following the presidential inauguration.
Democratic lawmakers, including Rep. Maxine Waters, criticized the move in a recent letter, suggesting the agency is retreating from crypto enforcement cases involving figures with political connections.
Sun reportedly invested heavily in World Liberty Financial tokens and attended events associated with the new administration prior to this resolution.
What the Justin Sun Case Says About the SEC Now
The $10 million figure is relatively modest compared to the billions sought in other recent crypto cases. It signals that the current SEC is prioritizing case clearance over maximum punitive damages, a sharp departure from the “regulation by enforcement” era of 2023.
This shift aligns accordingly with a maturing market structure. As recently discussed on Cryptonews, the biggest winners of the next cycle may be the most regulated entities that successfully navigate the government’s requirements.
If this pragmatic approach continues, expect other stalled enforcement actions to resolve quickly in the coming months, likely with similar “no admission of guilt” structures.
Discover: The next crypto to explode!
The post SEC Moves to Settle Justin Sun of Tron Case With $10M Penalty appeared first on Cryptonews.
Bitcoin exchange withdrawals spiked to more than $2 billion of BTC on Wednesday, with analysis eyeing a potential major spot buy.
Bitcoin (BTC) “large-scale accumulation” is on the radar after 31,900 BTC left Bitfinex in a single day.
Key points:
-
Bitcoin exchange withdrawals spark hope of a fresh round of accumulation this week.
-
Bitfinex sees its largest daily BTC outflow since June 2025 at around 25,000 BTC.
-
Exchange stablecoin flows point to Bitcoin dip-buying.
Bitcoin withdrawal spike raises eyebrows
New analysis released on Friday by Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, confirmed that a major BTC buy occurred this week.
On Wednesday, exchange outflows suddenly spiked, with the day’s total withdrawals nearing 32,000 BTC ($2.26 billion).
“Total outflow for the week reached approximately 47,700 BTC – one of the highest weekly figures over the past year,” Adler wrote.
“The Mar 4 spike (-31,900 BTC) is anomalous: single-day events of this magnitude are most often associated with large position transfers to cold storage, though a portion of such spikes may reflect internal custodian movements.”
For the week through Friday, exchange flows were net negative every day — a phenomenon that Adler says has bullish implications for the BTC price trend.
“A sustained negative BTC netflow typically signals reduced potential selling pressure in the spot market,” he continued.
“Confirmation of the bullish interpretation will emerge if the netflow remains negative for another 3-5 days without a significant return of coins to exchanges – at that point the signal qualifies as ‘sustained accumulation.’”
CryptoQuant and CoinGlass data confirmed Wednesday’s outflow spike, with exchange Bitfinex as the venue. The outflow marked Bitfinex’s largest since June 2025.
Analysis suggests ”large spot purchase”
Stablecoin activity, meanwhile, was neatly aligned with the withdrawal, with capital flowing to exchange wallets, while BTC left, indicating buying.
Related: Bitcoin trader sees ‘lower soon’ as BTC price starts to erase $74K breakout
“In early March 2026, a large green bar (~$1.1B) was recorded – a significant liquidity inflow to exchanges – after which netflow declined to -$37.5M as of the current date,” Adler summarized.
The “anomalous” 32,000 BTC outflow thus points to accumulation at price levels around $70,000.
“This behavior is commonly observed during large spot purchases, where assets are acquired on exchange and then moved to cold custody,” the analysis concluded.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
The U.S. job market weakened appreciably in February, possibly putting back in play the chance of Federal Reserve rate cuts in the first half of 2026.
The country loss 92,000 jobs last month, according to Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists had forecast an addition of 59,000 new jobs, compared with January’s gain of 126,000.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% versus economist expectations of 4.3%, and January’s reading of 4.3%.
Under pressure overnight ahead of the report and trading down to $70,000 as oil soared higher and equity markets dipped, bitcoin remained right around that mark in the minutes following the data.
U.S. stock index futures continue lower, with the Nasdaq down 1% and S&P 500 off 0.8%. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen four basis points to 4.11%. Precious metals reversed an early decline, with gold now higher by 1% and silver by 2%. WTI crude oil is up 6.2% to $86 per barrel.
Ahead of this morning’s report, markets were pricing in a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve would hold rates steady at the March 18 meeting and an 85% chance of no rate cut in April.
Meanwhile, rising oil prices linked to tensions in the Middle East could add upward pressure to inflation expectations. If sustained, higher energy prices may feed into broader inflation, particularly through energy and food costs. Combined with signs that the U.S. economy may be re-accelerating, this could prompt markets to reassess the path of monetary policy.
Quick Summary
- BofA reinstated coverage with “buy” ratings for Ford, GM, and Tesla on March 4, 2026
- Price targets set at $17 for Ford (34% potential gain), $105 for GM (14% upside), and $460 for Tesla (14% upside)
- Both Ford and GM expected to capitalize on pivot away from EVs toward profitable trucks and SUVs
- Tesla’s buy rating driven primarily by robotaxi business, which BofA values at approximately 52% of total company worth
- Electric vehicle sales projected to decline over 20% in 2026 amid reduced incentives and slower manufacturer deployment
On March 4, 2026, Bank of America resumed its analysis of North American automobile manufacturers, designating Ford, General Motors, and Tesla as premier investment opportunities for the coming year.
According to analyst Alexander Perry, the automotive sector stands poised to exceed market projections in 2026. Perry cited evolving regulatory frameworks and renewed emphasis on traditional combustion engines as primary catalysts.
Ford earned a “buy” designation alongside a $17 price objective. This represents a potential 34% appreciation from the stock’s opening value on March 4.
According to Bank of America’s assessment, Ford stands in an advantageous position to capitalize on emerging U.S. regulatory shifts. The financial institution anticipates Ford will intensify its concentration on truck and SUV production, segments that deliver superior profitability compared to electric vehicle offerings.
Ford commands more than 30% of the pickup truck segment, with its F-Series maintaining its position as America’s best-selling vehicle nameplate. The automaker expanded its domestic market penetration by 50 basis points throughout 2025.
General Motors similarly earned a “buy” recommendation, accompanied by a $105 price objective — representing 14% appreciation potential from March 4 levels. GM maintains the leading position among U.S. automakers with 17.1% market share.
Electric Vehicle Momentum Slows
Bank of America indicates that both Ford and GM stand to gain as the automotive industry retreats from ambitious electrification goals. Substantial EV investments and stringent emissions regulations had compressed profitability margins over recent years.
The investment firm calculates variable profit margins for trucks and SUVs at $17,500 per unit, substantially exceeding the corporate average range of $10,000 to $12,000.
BofA projects electric vehicle sales will contract by more than 20% throughout 2026 as government subsidies diminish and manufacturers decelerate their EV deployment strategies.
Perry observed that multiple manufacturers are postponing or abandoning lower-margin electric vehicle initiatives while prolonging their internal combustion engine production timelines.
Bank of America additionally highlighted that the elimination of CAFE penalty structures and greenhouse gas emission relief measures are empowering automakers to optimize their product portfolios toward higher-margin vehicle categories.
Tesla’s Autonomous Vehicle Strategy
Tesla secured a “buy” rating with a $460 price objective, likewise representing 14% upside potential from March 4 values. BofA’s investment thesis for Tesla centers predominantly on its self-driving vehicle operations.
The firm anticipates rapid expansion of Tesla’s robotaxi network. Tesla’s autonomous taxi services currently function in San Francisco and Austin, with deployments planned for seven additional metropolitan areas during the first half of 2026.
BofA calculates that the robotaxi division comprises approximately 52% of Tesla’s overall enterprise value. While competing platforms employ comprehensive sensor arrays combining cameras, radar, and lidar technology, Tesla utilizes an exclusively camera-based system that the firm characterizes as more cost-effective and readily scalable.
Perry also identified favorable macroeconomic conditions supporting the broader automotive industry. The average age of vehicles on American roads has reached 12.8 years, while vehicle miles traveled have achieved record levels — dynamics that BofA suggests may initiate a significant vehicle replacement wave.
Shares of Palantir Technologies (PLTR), a company specialising in big data analytics software, have become one of the stock market’s standout performers at the start of this spring.
While the closing price on the last trading day of February was around $137, during yesterday’s session the stock climbed to $155.
Why Is PLTR Rising?
The stock’s strong performance is driven by a combination of fundamental factors, including:
→ Competitors’ problems at the Pentagon: News about temporary restrictions placed on the AI start-up Anthropic in its work with US government agencies has strengthened Palantir’s position as a reliable partner.
→ Use in the Middle East conflict: Analysts at Baird highlighted this week the ability of Palantir’s systems to operate in real time and deliver predictive analytics on the battlefield.
→ Higher price targets: Several agencies (including Zacks and Trefis) have raised their forecasts for PLTR shares amid expectations that revenue growth could reach around 78% by the end of the year.
In addition, technical factors are also playing a role.
Technical Analysis of the Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Share Price
In November 2025, we noted that the chart had taken on a bearish tone and that the $190–200 zone could act as resistance. Indeed, in December PLTR shares made a bearish reversal from that area and fell to around $130 in less than two months, breaking support near $166 (which later turned into resistance).
New data now makes it possible to outline a broader ascending channel. In this context, the price formed a bullish inverted head-and-shoulders pattern (H&S) near the lower boundary in February.
The bullish gap around the $139 level appears to represent a breakout above the neckline of the pattern, while the surge in trading volume highlights the strength of demand.
Considering that the stock has risen by more than 10% over the past week, it may now be regarded as technically overbought, making a short-term pullback a reasonable expectation.
From a broader perspective, however, the bulls’ attempt to resume the long-term upward trend in PLTR shares may ultimately prove successful.
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Crypto World
BTC, ETH at a Crossroads After Reclaiming Key Levels, ADA Whales on the Move: Bits Recap March 6th
Here’s everything most interesting surrounding BTC, ETH, and ADA.
The past few days have been quite positive for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), whose prices soared to a one-month peak.
Cardano’s ADA also headed north, but the bears intercepted the move, and the asset is now deep in red territory on a weekly scale. The correction aligns with recent whale behavior, suggesting they may be scaling back their exposure to the token.
BTC’s Performance
Nearly a week ago, the US and Israeli forces attacked Iran, thus marking the start of a new major military conflict that stunned the world and sent shockwaves through the financial and crypto markets. BTC reacted with an immediate plunge below $64,000, but just hours later, it rebounded above $67,000 following reports that the supreme leader of the Asian country, Ali Khamenei, had been killed.
The primary cryptocurrency continued its uptrend, reaching a monthly high of nearly $74,000 on March 4. Some of the potential catalysts behind the rally could be the initial indications that Iran is willing to discuss terms for ending the war, as well as the growing interest in the asset from large investors.
Data from SoSoValue show that inflows into spot BTC ETFs have been substantial over the past several days. The trend indicates that big investors, such as hedge funds and pension funds, have been increasing their exposure to the asset through these funds, whose issuers must buy real Bitcoin to back these purchases.
Some analysts, such as Ali Martinez, believe BTC could post much more significant gains in the short term. Earlier this week, he underlined the importance of reclaiming the $70,685 resistance level, adding that the $72,000-$81,000 zone has very little supply and describing it as “open air in that range.”
“The next major supply clusters appear around $83,307 and $84,569, which could act as the significant resistance zones,” he claimed.
Others were not so bullish. X user Ted reminded that shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, BTC showed a similar upside move before undergoing a severe correction, suggesting history could repeat itself.
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How’s ETH Doing?
The second-largest cryptocurrency followed BTC’s footsteps, posting a painful decline below $1,900 but later rising to almost $2,200. As of this moment, it trades at around $2,060, representing a 4% increase on a seven-day scale.
Earlier this week, Ali Martinez assumed that a sustained close above $2,147 could set the stage for a further ascent to $2,335 or even $2,542. On-chain indicators such as the plummeting supply of ETH stored on exchanges support the bullish case.
Recently, the balance plunged to 15.93 million tokens, the lowest point since the summer of 2016. This means that investors continue to abandon centralized trading venues and move their holdings to self-custody, thereby reducing immediate selling pressure.
On the other hand, analysts like X user Emirhan suggested that a break below the key $2,109 level could open the door to a drop to under $1,900. The price did indeed slip beneath that mark, and we have yet to see whether an additional decline will come next.
The ADA Whales
Cardano’s native token tried to reclaim $0.30 but failed, and it is now worth around $0.26 (per CoinGecko’s data), representing a 7% decrease over the last week.
According to Martinez, the big investors have “redistributed” 230 million tokens in the span of just seven days. His graph displays a reduction in their total holdings, which can be interpreted as a major sell-off that could impact the price for several reasons.
This development increases the amount of ADA circulating on the open market, and without a corresponding rise in demand, the additional supply could suppress the valuation. Additionally, whale distribution signals fading confidence that may unsettle smaller players and prompt them to cash out as well.
It is important to note that the big investors had a much different strategy in recent months, accumulating roughly 820 million ADA between August 2025 and February this year.
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Crypto World
Kazakhstan central bank to invest up to $350 million in crypto and digital asset markets
Kazakhstan’s central bank revealed plans to allocate up to $350 million from its gold and foreign exchange reserves to investments linked to cryptocurrencies and digital assets.
The bank’s governor, Timur Suleimanov, said the institution is developing a list of acceptable investments, which will extend beyond direct cryptocurrency holdings, according to a Reuters report on Friday.
The country became a major bitcoin mining hub after China’s 2021 mining ban pushed operators abroad. In 2025, Astana-based Fonte Capital introduced central Asia’s first spot bitcoin ETF (BETF), offering regulated, physically backed exposure to bitcoin.
The investment strategy is expected to include shares of high-tech companies connected to digital assets, cryptocurrency infrastructure firms and index funds whose performance tracks crypto markets.
Deputy central bank chair Aliya Moldabekova said the investments would be made in April and May, emphasizing that authorities are taking a measured approach.
“We are not talking about any large investment in cryptocurrencies,” Moldabekova said, according to Reuters. “We are currently selecting companies that deal with digital assets, for example those involved in cryptocurrency infrastructure.”
The allocation represents only a small share of the country’s overall reserves. As of Feb. 1, the central bank held $69.4 billion in gold and foreign exchange reserves, while the country’s national fund, which accumulates oil revenues, held $65.23 billion in assets, according to the central bank data.
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