Crypto World
Bitcoin Eyes $80K Rally on Middle East Peace Hopes: Analyst
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back toward $78,000 on Monday after analysts tied the latest rebound to easing tensions between the USA and Iran, and the prospect of a broader recovery across risk assets.
Traders who spent much of the past two weeks bracing for another leg down are now watching whether the flagship cryptocurrency can reclaim the low-$80,000 range and drag altcoins higher with it.
Peace Deal Is the Macro Catalyst Crypto Has Been Waiting For
Writing on X earlier today, analyst Michaël van de Poppe laid out the chain of events he expects to follow a Middle East peace agreement:
“Oil goes down. Yields go down. Risk on assets will do well. Bitcoin breaks above $80k+ again. Altcoins will have their time for the entire summer.”
According to him, the concern had been whether BTC could reclaim a key resistance area, which it now appears to have done so.
“From that point on, many charts look like they want to break upwards, and that would be putting crypto back on the map,” he wrote.
The timing of the post matters, considering that Bitcoin had dropped to just above $74,000 on Saturday morning, its lowest point in May, after a new round of threats from President Trump directed at Iran.
The reversal came quickly once Trump himself announced that both sides had made real progress toward a permanent peace deal, with BTC climbing back to around $77,200 before running into resistance.
At the time of writing, the OG crypto was trading near $77,500, which is still well off its 7-day high of roughly $78,000 and down about 38% from its all-time high above $126,000 set in October 2025.
Meanwhile, over the past year, Bitcoin has lost about 28% of its value.
Trader Sykodelic, posting around the same time as van de Poppe, was cautiously optimistic but warned that a peace deal announcement this week might actually produce an initial dip before any sustained move higher.
“Take out the weekend lows, another go at that $74,000 level, tempt the bears one more time…then we run it up leading into June,” he wrote.
He also noted that Bitcoin had closed the week above both its 50 and 100 simple moving averages and what traders call the bull market support band, which he had been tracking for around three months.
Not Everyone is Rushing to Call the Bottom
Elsewhere, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. flagged a less-than-ideal data point from last week: around 18,000 BTC flowed onto exchanges, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of roughly 16,000 BTC.
“ETF demand did not absorb the exchange inflow. It added to the pressure,” he noted.
Another market watcher, Merlijn The Trader, put a short-term target on the $82,000 to $82,000 range, describing it as a “liquidity cluster” where trapped sellers will face pressure.
But he was explicit that this is where he expects to set up a short position, with a longer target of $67,000 below.
Meanwhile, analyst Dean Crypto Trades had previously argued that BTC needs to reclaim the low $80,000 area, where the 200-day moving average sits, and turn it into a higher low.
Without that, he warned, the recent recovery is just another lower high in a downtrend that has been in place since the October 2025 peak.
The post Bitcoin Eyes $80K Rally on Middle East Peace Hopes: Analyst appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Crypto World
SHIB futures flow falls 306% as traders pull back
SHIB futures netflow plunged 306% as outflows exceeded inflows, according to CoinGlass derivatives data.
Summary
- CoinGlass data shows SHIB futures netflow dropped 306%, with outflows exceeding inflows as derivatives traders reduced exposure to the meme token.
- Open interest in SHIB futures stands at $61.2 million, while approximately $42,485 in SHIB positions were liquidated in the latest 24-hour session.
- SHIB was trading near $0.00000575 at time of writing, down approximately 54% over the past 12 months and 3.7% over the past week.
CoinGlass tracked SHIB futures netflow dropping 306%, with the total value of SHIB leaving derivatives exchange wallets outpacing inflows. The metric tracks movement of tokens in and out of derivatives platform wallets and is used as an indicator of how traders are positioning in the perpetual futures market.
The 306% negative netflow signals that derivatives traders are actively reducing exposure rather than opening new leveraged positions. Open interest stands at $61.2 million, with $42,485 in SHIB futures positions liquidated in the latest 24-hour session.
What the derivatives data tells us about SHIB trader sentiment
Negative futures netflow does not necessarily indicate an impending price crash, but it does reflect a reduction in the number of traders willing to hold derivative exposure to SHIB at current prices.
SHIB was trading near $0.00000575 at time of writing, down approximately 54% over the past 12 months from a peak near $0.000012. The token broke below key support near $0.0000054 this week according to technical analysis on CoinMarketCap, raising concern about a possible retest of March 2026 lows.
Crypto.news has reported on over 3 billion SHIB tokens hitting exchanges in a single session earlier this month, adding sell-side pressure as broader crypto market liquidations accelerated.
The pattern of negative futures flow alongside exchange inflows suggests holders are repositioning rather than accumulating. Crypto.news has also covered how declining SHIB futures open interest and funding rate pressure had already signalled weak conviction among derivatives traders in February 2026.
The Shiba Inu (SHIB) price page tracks live movements as the futures data raises questions about SHIB’s near-term direction heading into the US Memorial Day holiday weekend.
Crypto World
Trader Linked to Whale now down $128 million after Ethereum wipeout
Onchain analytics firm Bubblemaps says a Hyperliquid whale linked to former BitForex CEO Garrett Jin and the infamous 10 10 short trade would have been up more than $70 million if he had never traded Ethereum, but is instead sitting on roughly $128 million in net losses after catastrophic ETH longs erased huge prior gains.
Summary
- Bubblemaps estimates the trader is down $128 million overall despite earlier nine figure wins
- The whale reportedly made about $100 million shorting BTC in the October 10, 2025 flash crash
- Subsequent outsized ETH longs on Hyperliquid led to more than $200 million in realized losses
- A linked wallet has now rotated into Hyperliquid again, buying $10 million of HYPE and shorting $38 million of ZEC
In a new onchain breakdown shared on X, Bubblemaps reconstructs the PnL of the wallet cluster it associates with Garrett Jin, arguing that if the trader had simply held BTC and avoided the ETH leverage spiral, his net profit would stand north of $70 million; instead, the account is now “down $128M overall” after a brutal series of Ether trades.
The cluster has been in the spotlight since the so called 10/10 crash on October 10, 2025, when a Hyperliquid whale built massive short exposure into Bitcoin and Ethereum shortly before President Donald Trump announced 100 percent tariffs on Chinese imports, triggering a violent risk off move.
How did a 10 10 legend flip from +$70M to –$128M?
Binance Square’s retrospective on the “10 11 flash crash” notes that the whale held more than 100,000 BTC equivalent and was behind a $735 million BTC short on Hyperliquid, with Arkham Intelligence later estimating between $190 million and $200 million in profit on those shorts across BTC and ETH as prices cratered.
Yahoo Finance separately described the same trader as the “Hyperliquid whale who made nearly $200M on the Oct. 10 crash,” and reported that blockchain sleuths linked the address to Garrett Jin, though Jin denied owning the wallet while acknowledging that he knew the person behind it.
From there, the trade morphs into a case study in overconfidence.
Binance coverage of a March 2025 liquidation recounts how an address on Hyperliquid opened a more than $200 million long position on ETH using 50x leverage, staking about $4.3 million in USDC to control 113,000 ETH before being liquidated in a move that left the protocol itself with a roughly $4 million loss due to insurance fund slippage.
Panoptic’s market intelligence notes and other whale tracking reports suggest that similar oversized ETH longs followed, taking the wallet’s aggregate realized loss on ETH north of $200 million as repeated attempts to time reversals ran into continued volatility and margin calls.
Against that backdrop, Bubblemaps’ claim that the trader swung from a hypothetical +$70 million to –$128 million net is entirely plausible: the original 10 10 BTC short win was massive, but the later ETH leverage series appears to have more than erased it.
What is the 10 10 whale doing now on Hyperliquid?
Despite the drawdown, the same cluster is back on Hyperliquid with a familiar mix of high conviction bets.
Bubblemaps says a connected address has recently deposited several million dollars of collateral to the perpetuals exchange, bought approximately $10 million worth of HYPE, the platform’s native token, and opened a $38 million short position on privacy coin Zcash (ZEC).
That dovetails with other recent whale tracking reports.
Bitcoin.com News described how a trader dubbed “Evaded” accrued about $7.5 million in profit in under four days from leveraged longs on ZEC and HYPE on Hyperliquid, then rolled into a $38.63 million ETH long using 25x leverage, a position that would be automatically liquidated on a roughly 4 percent adverse move.
Whale Alert and PANews have documented the same address pattern closing profitable HYPE, ZEC and ETH longs for about $4.6 million in gains, then opening a 990 BTC short worth nearly $75 million on Hyperliquid as BTC came under pressure from ETF outflows and derivatives liquidations.
While those reports focus on a pseudonymous trader called Evaded, Bubblemaps’ new thread argues that at least one of these high frequency, high notional Hyperliquid whales can be tied through address clustering and historical flows back to the 10 10 short and the entity it links to Garrett Jin.
The picture that emerges is of a trader who oscillates between periods of spectacular success and ruinous overreach, with the core pattern unchanged: concentrated directional bets on BTC and ETH around macro events, and now similarly aggressive positioning in platform tokens like HYPE and high beta names such as ZEC.
Why this whale matters for markets
On an absolute scale, a net PnL of –$128 million is a rounding error in a multi trillion dollar crypto market, but the 10 10 whale saga is a vivid illustration of how even elite operators with accurate reads on one regime can blow up when they assume the same playbook will work forever.
It also underscores how much of the Hyperliquid and perps venue narrative is driven by a handful of very large accounts whose wins and losses can distort funding rates, liquidity and sentiment for the rest of the market in the short term, especially when they pivot from being the bid to being the offer on assets like BTC, ETH, HYPE or ZEC.
For traders watching flows, Bubblemaps’ work adds another lens: rather than treating each new whale as an isolated story, it invites you to look at the entire career arc of a wallet cluster, and to ask whether you are front running a disciplined asymmetric player or shadowing a gambler who just torched nearly nine figures trying to replay last cycle’s script.
Crypto World
Chris Larsen XRP wallets go active near midterms
Chris Larsen’s XRP wallets have resumed on-chain activity ahead of Tuesday’s Texas primary runoff.
Summary
- Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen’s associated XRP wallets have shown renewed activity, coming ahead of Tuesday’s Texas Democratic primary runoff election.
- Larsen is estimated to hold approximately 2.58 billion XRP across eight wallets tracked on XRPScan, making his holdings one of the largest known individual XRP positions.
- XRP was trading near $1.35 at time of writing, with today’s activity following $109 million in Larsen-linked wallet transfers to exchanges recorded in January 2025.
Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen’s associated wallets have resumed on-chain activity, according to blockchain data, ahead of Tuesday’s Texas Democratic primary runoff. The reactivation draws immediate attention given Larsen’s history of significant XRP transfers at notable market and political junctures.
Larsen serves as executive chairman of Ripple Labs. His estimated 2.58 billion XRP holdings across eight wallets tracked on XRPScan represent one of the largest known individual positions in any single cryptocurrency, worth approximately $3.5 billion at current prices near $1.35.
🚨 @Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen’s $XRP wallets are active again.
On-chain trackers spotted fresh wallet #movements after months of inactivity, reviving speculation across the $XRP community. 👀
📊 @cryptoquant_com data estimates Larsen is sitting on over $764M in unrealized… pic.twitter.com/kyKupOSdzZ
— CoinGape (@CoinGapeMedia) May 25, 2026
Why Larsen’s wallet activity draws attention from the XRP community
In January 2025, wallets that had been idle for six to seven years reactivated and sent more than $109 million in XRP to exchanges including Coinbase, Bitstamp, and Bybit. In July 2025, on-chain researcher ZachXBT reported an additional $140 million in XRP transfers from Larsen-linked addresses coinciding with XRP trading near an all-time high above $3.40.
“Since July 17, 2025, an address linked to Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen transferred out 50M XRP ($175M) to four addresses. ~$140M ended up at exchanges/services,” ZachXBT wrote on X in July 2025. Larsen had not commented publicly on today’s activity at time of writing.
Whether the current movement precedes exchange transfers or represents internal wallet management is not confirmed from on-chain data available at time of publication. Crypto.news has covered Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s legislative activity in 2026 as the Clarity Act moves through Congress.
Crypto.news has also reported on why the Clarity Act’s progress is particularly consequential for XRP, context that gives any Larsen wallet movement added political timing significance ahead of Tuesday’s runoff.
Crypto World
XRP Whale Activity Falls 57% as Price Slides to $1.35 Level
TLDR
- XRP whale transactions worth over $1 million dropped by 57% in nine days.
- The XRP price declined from $1.54 on May 14 to around $1.35.
- The token recorded five consecutive intraday losses for the first time in two months.
- Large transactions fell from 157 trades to just 67 during the period.
- Analyst Ali Martinez linked the drop in whale activity to weakening market participation.
XRP whale activity has dropped sharply over the past nine days as large transactions declined across the network. Data shows trades worth at least $1 million fell by 57% while the XRP price also weakened. The slowdown points to reduced participation from large holders during a period of falling prices.
XRP Whale Activity Drops as Price Records 5 Straight Losses
XRP fell to $1.35 after declining from $1.54 recorded on May 14. The token posted five consecutive intraday losses between May 15 and May 19. The decline marked the first time in over two months that XRP recorded such a streak. The price dropped about 8% during this five-day period. Market analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a drop in large transactions during the same timeframe.
According to the data, whale transactions fell from 157 trades to just 67. These trades each represented transfers worth at least $1 million. This equals a 57% decline in large transaction activity within nine days. The reduction aligned closely with XRP’s downward price movement.
Martinez stated that large investors reduced participation as prices weakened. He added that this drop reflected lower confidence among major holders. The slowdown in trading activity occurred while XRP traded below $1.40. Selling pressure remained steady throughout the period.
Compression Phase Forms as Whales Quietly Accumulate XRP
Martinez described the current market state as a compression phase. He said whales appear to be waiting as the price stabilizes within a tighter range. He noted that such conditions often reduce short-term volatility. They also help establish clear support and resistance levels. Despite fewer large trades, some wallets continued accumulating XRP. Data shows selective buying among mid-sized holders during the dip.
Wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP increased their balance. Holdings rose from 3.72 billion XRP to 3.79 billion XRP. This group added about 70 million XRP over the observed period. Smaller whale wallets also increased their holdings slightly.
Addresses holding between 100,000 and 1 million XRP added around 20 million XRP. Their total rose from 6.31 billion XRP to 6.33 billion XRP. Martinez said the accumulation remains limited in impact on price movement. The broader market still reflects reduced activity from larger participants.
He also pointed to a tightening Bollinger Band on the three-day chart. He said it marks the lowest volatility level seen in over a year. Martinez identified $1.50 and $1.29 as key levels to monitor. He called this range a “no-trade zone” in his analysis.
He stated that a close above $1.50 could push XRP toward $1.80. A move below $1.29 could weaken the outlook and test $1.00 support. At the time of writing, XRP continues trading near $1.35 while whale activity remains subdued.
Crypto World
BlackRock Sells $1B in Bitcoin as ETF Outflows Hit 2026 High
BlackRock recorded its largest Bitcoin ETF outflow of 2026 after steady withdrawals throughout the past week. The asset manager sold more than $1 billion worth of Bitcoin, while the broader ETF market also posted heavy losses. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remained under pressure despite a modest recovery near the start of the week.
BlackRock Leads Weekly Bitcoin ETF Outflows
BlackRock reported continuous Bitcoin sales during every trading day last week. Consequently, the total value of those sales reached approximately $1.01 billion by week’s end. The figure marked the firm’s largest weekly Bitcoin ETF outflow since November 2025.
Data from crypto analytics platform Arkham showed BlackRock accounted for most of the sector’s withdrawals. Moreover, the broader Bitcoin ETF market experienced significant selling activity across multiple funds. Market participants reduced exposure as volatility increased across digital assets.
Bitcoin faced persistent downward pressure during the same period. As a result, ETF demand weakened despite BlackRock maintaining its leading market position. The latest withdrawals reflected a notable shift from stronger inflows seen earlier this year.
The outflow trend emerged as cryptocurrency prices struggled to sustain momentum. Furthermore, several major digital assets traded in negative territory throughout much of the week. The market environment contributed to reduced demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Institutional activity played a major role in the week’s market performance. Consequently, large-scale fund withdrawals added pressure to Bitcoin and related investment products. The combined ETF outflow reached approximately $1.26 billion during the reporting period.
BlackRock represented the largest share of those withdrawals. Moreover, the fund manager continued to dominate overall Bitcoin ETF holdings despite recent selling activity. The latest figures highlighted the scale of the market’s recent shift.
Bitcoin Holds Above Key Levels Despite Selling Pressure
Bitcoin traded at $77,443 at the time of reporting. However, the cryptocurrency remained well below levels seen during stronger periods earlier this month. The price still managed a modest gain of 0.45% from recent lows.
The asset began the month with positive momentum across major exchanges. However, sentiment weakened as volatility returned to the broader cryptocurrency market. Selling pressure increased as prices struggled to maintain upward movement.
Several market indicators pointed to growing uncertainty across digital assets. Consequently, traders adjusted positions while risk appetite declined. Bitcoin faced resistance as buyers attempted to stabilize recent losses.
The recent ETF withdrawals added another challenge for the market. Moreover, reduced institutional demand coincided with weaker price performance across major cryptocurrencies. The combination created additional pressure on Bitcoin’s short-term outlook.
Market forecasts remained divided regarding Bitcoin’s next move. Some analysts expected consolidation near current levels, while others projected further declines. Meanwhile, resistance levels continued to limit stronger recovery attempts.
Bitcoin maintained support above key price zones despite the recent weakness. However, continued selling activity could influence future market direction. The cryptocurrency remained sensitive to both institutional flows and broader market sentiment.
Market Context Highlights Changing Institutional Activity
Spot Bitcoin ETFs played a significant role in Bitcoin’s performance throughout the past year. Consequently, inflows and outflows often influenced short-term market sentiment and trading activity. Large fund movements frequently attracted attention across financial markets.
BlackRock emerged as the dominant participant in the Bitcoin ETF sector after its launch. Moreover, the firm’s products consistently attracted substantial capital compared with competitors. That position made recent withdrawals particularly notable.
The latest outflows followed months of stronger institutional participation. However, changing market conditions encouraged a more defensive approach among large market participants. As a result, Bitcoin ETFs experienced one of their weakest weeks of 2026.
The broader cryptocurrency market continues to navigate heightened volatility. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains the primary benchmark for digital asset performance. Future ETF flow data will likely remain an important factor for market direction.
Crypto World
New York Suit Seeks Ownership of 39,069 Dormant Bitcoin Wallets
A New York lawsuit filed by Noah Doe and two Wyoming-based LLCs, ABC Company and XYZ Company, seeks a court order declaring ownership of 39,069 dormant Bitcoin addresses, raising important questions about the legal treatment of inactive Bitcoin under property laws.
Filed on May 1, the suit claims that the coins tied to the listed addresses represent legally abandoned property they found and reported to the New York Police Department and claimed under New York lost-property law.
The plaintiffs claim that the dormant Bitcoin wallets were legally “abandoned” property that they found, including wallets belonging to early Bitcoin miners and addresses attributed to Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto, among other lost coins and unidentified entities. They claim that these constitute seizable property, akin to traditional bank accounts.
The lawsuit raises important questions about the legal treatment of long-dormant Bitcoin wallets, including Satoshi-era tokens that have been inactive for over a decade. While the legal basis of the lawsuit is questionable, it is unclear how the plaintiff could recover the lost Bitcoin without possessing the private keys to access the wallets.
However, even if the court ruled in favor of the plaintiff, it would only be a symbolic move that is not technically enforceable, as the Bitcoin network has no mechanism to “reassign funds without a private key,” Noveleader, lead research analyst at investment research firm Castle Labs, told Cointelegraph, adding:
“The one narrow exception would be if any of these coins are moved to a regulated custodian or exchange, at which point a court could compel that intermediary to act.”
The research analyst argued that a significant portion of these coins may belong to deceased holders, those who lost their keys or simply to long-term holders who haven’t transacted, meaning that none of these instances constitute legal abandonment.

ABC Company, XYZ Company, Noah Doe, lawsuit against John Does holding 39,069 BTC. Source: ilawconotices.com
Lawsuit seeks ownership of Satoshi’s tokens, Mt. Gox hacker’s BTC stash
The 901-page lawsuit lists 39,069 total Bitcoin wallet addresses, including wallet address “12c6D” associated with Satoshi Nakamoto and address “1Feex” linked to the Mt. Gox exchange hacker.

ABC Company, XYZ Company, Noah Doe, lawsuit against John Does holding 39,069 BTC, Bitcoin wallets. Source: ilawconotices.com
The listed addresses hold an estimated 3.7 million BTC, valued at about $285 billion, according to Sani, the founder of Bitcoin onchain analytics platform Timechain Index.
The founder also noted that most of the old Satoshi-era tokens are currently sitting in Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) output formats, while the plaintiffs only sent legal notices to the corresponding hashed public key under Pay-to-Public-Key-Hash (P2PKH) formats, which often hold no value.
This could undermine the claim that proper notice of abandonment was given to the holder, since plaintiffs sent the legal notices to the empty P2PKH addresses, while the actual BTC balance sits in unnotified P2PK scripts.
Castle Labs’ lead research analyst agreed, adding that the messaging attempt was “structurally defective” because it was sent to the address formats no longer used by the targeted wallets. Sending a small transaction via the OP_RETURN function would be “similarly ineffective” as it only works with active recipients monitoring their wallets.
Related: Bitcoin miner MARA spent $4.3M on CEO security in 2025 as crypto attacks rise
The over 39,000 wallets named in the lawsuit hold Bitcoin that are considered dormant, or lost, meaning that they haven’t been circulating onchain for multiple years.

The supply of Bitcoin dormant for the past five and 10 years. Source: Bitbo
There are currently 3.5 million Bitcoin, worth about $271 billion, that have been dormant for the past 10 years and another 6.6 million coins, worth around $577 billion, that have been dormant for over five years, Bitbo data shows.
Magazine: The legal battle over who can claim DeFi’s stolen millions
Crypto World
3 Things to Know About Kevin Warsh, the New Fed Chair
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve on May 22. With this, he effectively replaced Jerome Powell after a narrow Senate vote and inherited sticky inflation, a $6.7 trillion balance sheet, and an increasingly Fed-sensitive crypto market.
His record as a former Fed governor, Bush-era policy adviser, and Wall Street financier points to a more hawkish, less interventionist Fed. Markets are pricing the shift in real time, and crypto traders are watching closely.
1. Hawkish on Inflation With a Smaller Balance Sheet in Mind
Warsh has long argued the post-2008 Fed grew too large and too active. He resigned in 2011 over additional quantitative easing and has spent the years since calling for scarcer reserves, a leaner balance sheet, and tighter discipline on inflation.
That framework now meets the moment. The federal funds target sits at 3.50 to 3.75%, headline inflation climbed to 3.3% in March on an Iran-driven oil shock, and the March dot plot pencils in just one cut for 2026.
At his Senate confirmation hearing, Warsh framed the central bank’s delayed inflation response as structural rather than a one-off mistake.
“Once you let inflation take hold in the economy, it is more expensive and harder to bring it down, and so the fatal policy error going back four or five years is still a legacy that we are dealing with… we need a regime change in the conduct of policy.”
Traders read that as a signal for faster quantitative tightening (QT) over near-term rate cuts.
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2. A Friendlier Take on Bitcoin Than His Predecessor
Warsh enters the role with the most openly pro-crypto record of any sitting Fed Chair. Trump’s Fed Chair pick has called Bitcoin a “sustainable store of value,” ruled out a retail central bank digital currency, and described crypto as already part of the United States financial system.
His crypto financial disclosure lists over $100 million in digital asset exposure, spanning Layer 1 networks, Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols, and Bitcoin (BTC) payment infrastructure.
The combination produces a paradox for traders. A hawk on rates is bearish for risk in the short term. However a Chair who views Bitcoin as a credible reserve asset reframes the longer-run case during every liquidity squeeze.
BTC has retreated from its January peak as the dot plot hardened, with traders caught between hawkish Fed policy and friendlier crypto signals from the top.
3. A Regime Change in How the Fed Talks to Markets
Warsh has telegraphed sweeping changes to how the Fed speaks to investors. He wants to:
- Scrap the post-meeting press conference cadence
- Retire forward guidance as a tool, and
- Adopt what he calls a “different, new inflation framework.”
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The implication is a more opaque Fed. Investors who built positions around dot plots and well-trailed pivots will face a Chair who prefers silence and discretion over telegraphed signals.
That style may raise near-term volatility, yet in Warsh’s framing it restores credibility lost during the transitory inflation period.
His pledge during the Powell-to-Warsh handoff was to behave as no one’s “sock puppet,” a direct response to Trump’s pressure for rate cuts.
The first real test arrives at the next FOMC meeting, Warsh’s first as Chair.
Kevin Warsh being able to deliver regime change or careful continuity will set the tone for rates, the dollar, and crypto through the rest of 2026.
The post 3 Things to Know About Kevin Warsh, the New Fed Chair appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
Crypto Lobby Spends Big on Republicans in 2026 Midterms
In the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, Americans will elect 35 of 100 Senate seats and all of the 435 voting seats of the House of Representatives.
The cratering popularity of President Donald Trump’s administration, which polls show is the result of everything from the economy to the War in Iran and his handling of immigration, has put Democrats in an historic lead.
The generic congressional ballot test, i.e., a poll that asks which party the respondent plans to support, recently showed that the Democrats had the largest mid-term lead of any party in the last 20 years.
But the Democrats have to contend not only with gerrymandering and a $1.8 billion slush fund for Trump’s political allies, but also the millions of dollars the crypto lobby is pouring into the elections.
According to Follow the Crypto, an accountability project tracking political donations from the crypto industry, political action committees and crypto execs combined have donated over $500 million to influence the 2026 elections.
Crypto’s partisan divide becomes even clearer
According to Follow the Crypto, crypto-associated Political Action Committees (PAC) spending on the 2026 elections has already exceeded $245 million. Super PACs, which cannot donate to political campaigns directly but can spend an unlimited amount of money, have spent $49 million this cycle.
Super PACs are showing an increasingly partisan preference, contributing $23.4 million to support Republicans. It’s more than double the $11.3 million it spent to support Democrats.
The difference is even more stark when considering contributions from companies and associated individuals, e.g., CEOs and other executives. Here, companies and associations have spent more than 11 times on Republicans than on Democrats.

Part of this vast divide in spending could be explained by not necessarily a partisan bias toward Republicans, but the fact that Republican attitudes toward the finance industry tend to value deregulation and relaxed oversight. Democrats are not opposed to crypto on the level of party platform, but tend to be more skeptical.
But PACs have also spent a considerable sum opposing Democrats as well. Indeed, they’ve spent nearly $2 million more opposing Democrats than they have supporting them.

Crypto PACs spent more against Democrats than for them. Source: Follow the Crypto
Furthermore, in three out of the four special elections for the House where crypto PACs backed the winner, the victor was a Republican:
- Randy Fine (Florida 6th), $1.67 million
- Jimmy Patronis (Florida 1st), $558,000
- Clayton Fuller (Georgia 14th), $755,000
Crypto spends big in primaries, with mixed results
So far, most of the expenditures have been in primary elections, where the party decides among themselves which candidate will represent them in the general elections in November. Here, the crypto lobby can ensure that they have at least one crypto-friendly candidate on the ballot.
Three recent examples of profligate spending in primaries stand out. First is the Illinois senate primary that took place in March. Illinois Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton faced off against Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi.
Related: Crypto industry ties were a liability in Illinois primary
Kirashnamoorthi received only a nominal donation from crypto donors, but crypto PACs spent over $10 million on materials against Stratton. The spending against nearly totalled more than the total financial support for Stratton. In this case, it didn’t work. In fact, Stratton used the crypto money as a point against her opponent, and won by over seven percent of the vote.

Earlier this week, Georgia State Representative Jasmine Clark won the primary for Georgia’s 13th Federal Congressional District. Clark received 56% of the vote over her opponents Heavenly Kimes and Everton Blair, who received 21.5% and 11.6%, respectively.
Clark received massive support from the crypto lobby. According to Follow the Crypto, outside spending from PACs accounted for $4.2 million in contributions — over nine times the amount of money her campaign raised itself.

Elections analyst Matt Klein said that “one of Clark’s opponents showed me data suggesting that the millions of dollars in crypto [money] for her was a huge turn-off for Dem voters.”
Despite this, Clark still won. According to Klein, this is because the other campaigns lacked the finances to inform the electorate. “The problem: Voters had no way of knowing it was crypto money! To advertise that message, guess what you need…”
In Alabama, Senator Tommy Tuberville is leaving office, leaving an empty seat. The leading candidates to replace him, Steve Marshall, Jared Hudson and Barry Moore, faced off in a primary earlier this week.
Moore, who is favored by Trump, received $7.8 million in donations from the crypto lobby — almost four times the total raised by his opponent.

While Moore finished first in the primary results on Tuesday, he did not get the majority needed to secure the election. Now, he and Hudson are headed to a runoff.
Crypto sweep or careful messaging?
The crypto industry is already on track to break its previous record for spending in the 2024 presidential elections. But as shown above, it remains to be seen how effective crypto is as an actual organizing issue.
As reported in industry media, Fairshake, the largest crypto PAC, claimed a sweep in six primaries in which it spent money, claiming that a “powerful bipartisan mandate is being heard.”
But all the GOP candidates to which it donated were also endorsed by President Trump, a particularly powerful edge in red, Republican-dominated states like Alabama. Messaging in those campaigns reportedly concentrated on those associations, rather than the candidates’ positions on crypto.
Moore’s site draws particular attention to his association with Trump, which he doubles down on in his issues page. There is no mention of crypto and blockchain in his economic agenda, save for mention in support statements from other legislators.
Clark also received sizable donations, but was previously in a very tight race against her opponent Representative David Scott, before he passed away. As noted above, the fact that she received large donations from the crypto industry was not well known.
Any mention of crypto is notably absent from campaign sites or advertisements. Clark’s site makes no mention of digital assets in her agenda. Nor does she note crypto-associate organizations among her endorsements.
Crypto is increasingly becoming a political issue. Money can certainly make a difference in American elections, but even candidates don’t seem sold on it as a campaign issue.
Magazine: 5 tech predictions the mainstream media got horribly wrong
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Ethereum Foundation's Kohaku Initiative Launches SDK for Wallet-Level Privacy Integration

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Crypto World
Indonesia Blocks Polymarket After Bets on President’s Exit
Indonesia blocked access to Polymarket after the prediction market platform hosted wagers on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office before the end of his term.
Indonesia’s Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs (Komdigi) announced the block on Friday, describing Polymarket as an “online gambling site disguised as a prediction market.”
“The government will not allow any form of online gambling in Indonesia,” ministry official Alexander Sabar said, adding: “Activities like Polymarket involve betting and speculation on uncertain outcomes, thus violating Indonesian law.”
The move adds Indonesia to a growing list of jurisdictions treating prediction markets as gambling products, not merely forecasting tools, as platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi face mounting legal scrutiny worldwide.
Political bets trigger scrutiny
The government action came days after Polymarket opened a wager tied to Prabowo’s presidency, allowing users to bet on whether the Indonesian leader would leave office early.
One of the markets, which appeared on Polymarket on May 21, lets users bet on whether Prabowo would leave office before several future dates, including May 31, June 30 and Dec. 31, 2026, even though his five-year presidential term is set to run until October 2029.

Source: Polymarket
The market recorded more than $46,000 in trading volume, with traders pricing a 1% chance of him leaving by May 31, 2% by June 30 and 18% by the end of 2026.
The ministry’s statement did not specifically reference the presidential exit prediction market, instead broadly characterizing Polymarket as a gambling platform operating in violation of Indonesian law.

Source: Indonesia’s Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs (Kemkomdigi)
“As a measure to protect the public, especially the younger generation and users of the national digital space, the Ministry of Communication and Digital has blocked access to the Polymarket platform and similar services that are suspected of facilitating online gambling practices,” it said.
Prediction markets face global pressure
The Indonesian ban adds to growing regulatory pressure on prediction market platforms across multiple jurisdictions.
Supporters say prediction markets function as tools for crowd-sourced forecasting and sentiment tracking, while critics argue they can resemble online gambling and raise concerns around market manipulation as well as insider trading.
Related: CFTC officials who questioned prediction markets were suspended: NYT
India was among the latest countries to restrict access to Polymarket, extending a list of jurisdictions where the platform is blocked to more than 30. Despite the restrictions, Polymarket has recently signaled interest in pursuing regulatory approval in select markets, including Japan.
Magazine: Polymarket seeks Japan entry, Harvard dumps entire ETH position: Hodler’s Digest, May 17 – 23
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